Bitcoin Forum

With a max of 21 million Bitcoins having been released in 2033 then for a $1 B ($1,000,000,000) valuation we get a price of $47.62 per Btc, or atm with over 8 million Btc in the wild we would need a price of approx $125 per Btc, so the question is on what date will Bitcoin become a $1 B entity - closest date wins a 5 Btc prize ~ coins held here: 1BiLLioN (https://blockchain.info/address/1BiLLioNmhsMauu6CrAchkLRM386A5P6pp)

Please express date as YYYY MM DD or as 29th Feb 2012 say, thread will be locked on the 31st Jan 2012 - please don't edit your dates except for typos/clarity, my rules & common sense, i.e. if someone puts the same date as one already chosen the first person wins it & ambiguous dates will be void, 1 entry per pre-existing forum ID

Plus a second competition with the same rules & also for a 5 Btc prize for when the value of a single Bitcoin will equal 1 gram of gold, as shown here in $s, i.e. atm $51.25 ~ coins held here: 1GramAu1 (https://blockchain.info/address/1GramAu1jEinQiKxPgDTWrFe4MeCxiFnna)

http://goldprice.org/gold-price-per-kilo.html

If 1 person wins both then I shall double their prize to 20 Btc total ~ the extra coins held here: 1x2wins (https://blockchain.info/address/1x2winsjD1MzspV2iBn61PCwc5W2EetfJ)

For those who say never, then please state that & your date shall then be for when a fatal blow hits Bitcoin or failing that if the price falls below $0.10 (prize as above & only payable in zombie Btc)


Edit to add a copy of the summary post: #88 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=56562.msg726187#msg726187)

Here's the final summary of the dates chosen, voting & prize entries are now closed, with the time frame of the 4 years up to the end of 2017 being the most popular years for issued Bitcoins to reach $1 B in the poll votes, but 2012 taking it in the date choice & the same for 1 BTC to gain parity with 1 gm Au.

Here also a rounded up table of the approx BTC price for achieving $1 B in the years of them being mined & the $ value of each 5 BTC prize offered - though I chose dates for 2015 myself the sooner I get to give those prizes away the happier I'll be  :P

Year  1BTC   5BTC    5BTC     20BTC (the doubled prize for winning both dates)

2012   $110   $550     $550      $2,200
2013   $95     $475     $475      $1,900    <--- WTG BTC & Scott J ~ March 2013 for the double prize!  
2014   $80     $400     $400      $1,600
2015   $75     $375     $375      $1,500
2016   $65     $325     $325      $1,300
2018   $60     $300     $300      $1,200
2020   $55     $275     $275      $1,100
2023   $50     $250     $250      $1,000
2033   $48     $238     $238      $952

 :)   Final Summary   :P

$1B

2012 05 01 miscreanity
2012 05 10 lord bookington
2012 05 16 cloon
2012 06 01 finway
2012 06 27 Goat
2012 07 04 kjlimo
2012 07 07 foggyb
2012 10 02 niko
2012 10 30 sadpandatech
2012 11 04 the joint
2012 12 01 westkybitcoins
2012 12 07 notme

2013 01 01 farfiman
2013 01 07 chsados
2013 02 13 Mageant
2013 03 23 Scott J    <--- looks like a winner, this now confirmed & prize sent  
2013 05 05 BTCurious
2013 05 08 kilmyos
2013 05 22 Clark
2013 07 14 Koekiemonster
2013 09 07 sgbett
2013 09 12 istar
2013 12 06 waspoza

2014 01 04 indeededausername
2014 06 23 Kluge

2015 04 01 Revalin
2015 04 02 Otoh

2016 07 08 proudhon

2017 09 11 Wekkel
2017 12 12 trogdorjw73

Never - Hawkix

1g Au

2012 04 01 miscreanity
2012 05 03 Goat
2012 05 13 Niko
2012 06 07 foggyb
2012 06 12 cloon
2012 08 01 oOoOo
2012 08 03 sadpandatech
2012 08 10 kjlimo
2012 09 03 the joint
2012 12 07 notme
2012 12 21 Mageant

2013 01 03 Koekiemonster
2013 01 07 chsados
2013 03 23 Scott J    <--- looks like a winner, this now confirmed & prize sent  
2013 04 13 proudhon
2013 06 10 Clark
2013 12 06 waspoza

2014 01 01 farfiman
2014 03 04 Wekkel
2014 04 01 Revalin
2014 05 03 indeededausername
2014 05 05 BTCurious

2015 05 05 Otoh

2016 09 07 sgbett

2018 06 27 trogdorjw73

Never - westkybitcoins

Prizes:

1BiLLioN (https://blockchain.info/address/1BiLLioNmhsMauu6CrAchkLRM386A5P6pp)      Sent:  Tx (https://blockchain.info/tx/f88f2a2a6dcb26298270596998a9470ade923c61ea95e90c30c6e51c9e9c3281)

1GramAu1 (https://blockchain.info/address/1GramAu1jEinQiKxPgDTWrFe4MeCxiFnna)   Sent:  Tx (https://blockchain.info/tx/a6b9e02b65c77883c7c8a32ff39678dfd05f421797d51fec55b4aa2285cf7adf)

1x2wins (https://blockchain.info/address/1x2winsjD1MzspV2iBn61PCwc5W2EetfJ)      Sent:  Tx (https://blockchain.info/tx/c03ca27cef8b30aa180b5c94a24111315e37e4e886c174f7b9d67450dff718a4)

2015.04.01 - Market Cap == $1B
2014.04.01 - 1 BTC == 1g Au

I'm bearish and unconvinced that we WILL see $1B.  However, if Bitcoin hangs on through this year and we start seeing serious commerce, it could easily grow that far in a few years.

Edit: added gold.

Not this year things take longer than expected. Unless in a bubble.

But we might get close in the next newyears bubble 2012-12-30.

50/50 in the autumn of next year.
Exact date 2013-09-12

1G$: 2013-5-5
1g Au: 2014-5-5

$1B: 4th Jan 2014
1g Au: 3rd May 2014

$B - 30th Oct. 2012
$s - 3rd Aug. 2012
g= ~$62

If the Euro stays proped up, silver and gold low then it will be Jan/Feb 2013 for $B

Just to be absolutely 100% sure: we're talking UTC dates, right?

You do realize you are offering around $2500 worth of prize money?   :P

Of course he does :D

I am rather pesimistic. Other people (government, corporations, top rich people) simply will not that ALLOW to happen. Even if the Bitcoin will tend to become very popular, there will be high tension to switch the fortune from current BTC holders to the others I named in previous sentence. Do you all think they will let you become rich? No way.

There will be tension to restart the chain. They will start mine its own. I would say, if the current Bitcoin will be successfull in this year, we may expect soon so called "Blockchain Wars". Of course, some will continue to use current blockchain, but its always the majority (even in the Bitcoin world), who rules.

Just my two BitCents, maybe worth a few dollars later.

$1BN: 7th September 2013
Gold: 7th September 2016

My winnings go here: 1G4PGAL4i7cZSrUbm42AkScPLpSx84hV8c

:D

yep, UTC dates & if 2012 then it's up to $2500 in prizes np - the 20 Btc have been pre-bought (in Nov 2011)  :)
I'll send them to my sig later for safe keeping (once I've checked that I've got the private key to that safe still)

highest market cap so far the June 2011 irrational exuberance to about $33 for approx 7 million bits to give roughly $230,000,000

My spidey sense tells me never, but what the heck:

$1B: 12th December, 2017
1g Au: 27th June, 2018

I also don't think it'll ever reach $1B, but for the hellofit:

$1B: 2016 - 07 - 08
1g Au: 2013 - 04 - 13

$1B 11 september 2017
Gold 4 march 2014

$0.10 never again

Gold 3rd january 2013
$1B 14th july 2013

get ready for the next spike up...

If it doesnt go above 1 billion then it would have failed and collapsed.
How much commerce in the whole world can be done with 1 Billion worth only?
Just Paypal commerce is around 100 Billion and the majority of that is just in the US and Europe.

I say :

1Billion $ =  1st of January 2013
Gold=    1st of January 2014

$1 Billion  =  23rd March 2013
Gold=  23rd March 2013

I chose $1 B as a minimum critical mass otherwise we'll be looking at a niche curiosity but one that may well still have it's uses & longetitity

$100B transferred by PayPal in one year? What's special about a year? You can't compare total value of bitcoins to an amount of money flow in PayPal over an arbitrarily chosen time period.

This^

A perfect market for InTrade.

..i would suggest that you count ALL POSSIBLE bitcoins (21 million) into your calculation, since everybody knows that there are 21 million and thus this is reflected in the actual price.

-> price of ~ $47 will give you a total bitcoin economy worth 1000.000.000 USD.

-> before the end of 2013

$1B: 2012-10-02
1g Au: 2012-05-13

^ This..


IMO, the reward reduction time point is THE pivotal moment for Bitcoin.
Even though I have reviewed the source code, the actual physical occurrence will still surprise me and be a huge shock to the non-literate. 

"Wait? What? You mean an algorithm actually runs this thing and not some over paid bureaucratic?  I got to gets me some of those!!"

If there is no technical breach before this date, then Bitcoin will go absolutely ballistic in the months before and after this point.

I had no problem with the choice of 1B as a landmark ( on the way up i hope)
My remark had to do with the people that predict that in will never get there.

I guess at 1B it is possible for bitcoin to sustain itself as a niche curiosity as you call it but if that
niche leans towards the "evil " side or just to pay Server costs that hosts pools that miners are using...
then it wont last in my opinion.

Yes ,you are right,  it was a bit like comparing apples to oranges.
The example was just to get some proportions of the size of the markets that are possible for bitcoin.

If bitcoin were -for example- to replace paypal there would be no way to have 100B of commerce over a period
of 1 year with "only" a total value of  1B ( unless 1/3 of all bitcoins were spent EVERYDAY)

FALSE

$1B: 4th July 2012
1g Au: 10th August 2012

Wish you were right :). Can we bet so I could have insurance Bitcoins I own? :)

I'm always doing commerce with less than a billion.

2013.01.01 - $1B
2012.12.21 - 1g Au

1b: May 8th, 2013

USD$1B: 2012-05-01
1BTC=1gAu: 2012-04-01

This is like Yabusame (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5vzp-7TFYv4) with a moving target. Gold's price will fluctuate and the number of Bitcoins will continue to rise, not to mention the potential for exogenous shocks.


Bitcoin Days Destroyed (https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Bitcoin_Days_Destroyed) is a measure of transaction volume, analogous to velocity (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Velocity_of_money). Being calculated per block, it shows that about 1/3rd of all Bitcoins are exchanged at a given time (unless my interpretation is mistaken). This has been holding steady since the bubble high in June, so it is easily within the realm of possibility that a great deal of nominal value has changed hands.

PayPal is not used as a currency trading platform; behind the scenes may be different. I think Bitcoin might be seeing high unit turnover because of algorithmic trading on exchanges in combination with new inflows. Some back-of-envelope calculations (i.e. inaccurate and probably flawed):

Assume a $10mm economy size with 1/3rd of Bitcoins exchanging hands (everything including exchanges, API trading and private transactions) every block:
10,000,000 x 0.33 = 3,300,000/block

Amount per hour:
3,300,000 x 6 = 19,800,000/hr

Amount per day:
19,800,000 x 24 = 475,200,000/day

Amount per year:
475,200,000 x 365 = 173,448,000,000/yr

So over $173 billion per year transacted with an economy at a static size of $10mm; a very active economy, much like existing forex markets. Even if the transaction volume ratio is actually 1%, that still puts the annual exchanged amount at over $5 billion, using the same assumptions as above. I would expect the ratio to decline somewhat as the economy increases in size, but being $50mm now, a drop to 10% would still be greater than in the example ($5mm vs. $3.3mm) for a total of $262.8 billion transacted per year.

To put things into perspective, a table of values (with 21 million BTC).

economy size $1 $10 $100 $1,000 $10,000 $100,000 $1,000,000 $10,000,000 $100,000,000 $1,000,000,000 $10,000,000,000 $100,000,000,000 $1,000,000,000,000 $10,000,000,000,000 $100,000,000,000,000

value of 1 BTC $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.05 $0.48 4.76 $47.62 476.19 4,761.90 47,619.05 476,190.48 4,761,904.76

the global money supply is estimated at some USD 70 trillion. Let's assume 60 trillion for the sake of argument. This money changes hands daily to support the world economy.

1.
6 billion people in the world. Average of USD 10,000 for each person in the world. Compared with the maximum of BTC = average of 0,0035 BTC for each person in the word  :o

2.
If only 0.001% of all trade in the world would be done via BTC, that would replace the function of USD 600,000,000 of currency (approx USD28/BTC). Imagine if that portion would be 1%.

3.
Imagine that 6 billion people on earth all have 1 BTC in average to let their whole economy function (USD2,857,142/BTC).

4.
There is a high probability that the spreading of BTC will follow the classic rules of adoption of new ideas (provided it overcomes the current technical hurdles). On average, if 13% uses BTC, the rest will follow without a doubt.

Background:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diffusion_of_innovations
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/07/110725190044.htm (we just need to believe in BTC's success hard enough)

5.
Hence, it's always hoarding time....  ;D

Slightly off-topic, but $10000 per EACH person on Earth simply illustrates, how much of money must be in hands of very small group of people. Not saying if it's bad or good ...

You may want to rethink that.

Put forward differently:
1. 60 trillion USD of money to make the world economy function
2. replace global money supply with 21 mio BTC
3. same world economy but with BTC = $2.8mio/BTC

This discussion reminds me of the old story, when the scientists from the beginning of 20th century speculated how much place will have London to occupy in recent "future", when everyone would want to have its own horse and hackney and there will be need for plenty of barns and oat fields. Not counting the disposal of horseshit.

will never happen...
if the USD gets worthless, they will make another currency, one who is controllable, not like Bitcoin...
but IMO many ppl will invest in BTC for hoarding, like gold, and slowly the BTCEconomy will start growing ;-)

My bets:
1B USD: 16 may 2012
Gold:     12 jun  2012

Just how long do you think people will take to learn all paper money goes to shitters then they make a new one which suffers the same fate?

History can only repeat itself for so long until people smart up to mistakes of the past.

Things do change when people are educated of their mistakes and demand a better solution. Bitcoin is merely one example of an educated man trying to make a difference.

shure it is, but many people will only follow the main stream media and main stream politics and advertising and not have the connectiuon to the virtual "world"
so the replacement of the USD will be used... but Bitcoin will take his part! The rise has just begun!^^

2012.11.04    ------ $1 Billion   (nov. 4th)

2012.09.03    ------  Gold   (sept. 3rd)

Not a bad guess, in my opinion.  Someone was thinking of what has happened this holiday season :)

sorry , the date is taken....

I'd have to scan back over the thread but I believe you are the only other person besides me who placed the btc = gold date after before the btc = 1B$ date.  May I ask what is your thinking in this?

cheers


edit; duh

I did it too, by a year difference, actually. My reasoning goes: If digital gold becomes worth more due to fiat issues, then actual gold will become worth more too.

 ;D Summary to date ;D

$1B

2012 05 01 miscreanity
2012 05 10 lord bookington
2012 05 16 cloon
2012 06 01 finway
2012 06 27 Goat
2012 07 04 kjlimo
2012 10 02 niko
2012 10 30 sadpandatech
2012 11 04 the joint
2012 12 01 westkybitcoins

2013 01 01 farfiman
2013 02 13 Mageant
2013 03 23 Scott J
2013 05 05 BTCurious
2013 05 08 kilmyos
2013 05 22 Clark
2013 07 14 Koekiemonster
2013 09 07 sgbett
2013 09 12 istar

2014 01 04 indeededausername

2015 04 01 Revalin

2016 07 08 proudhon

2017 09 11 Wekkel
2017 12 12 trogdorjw73

never - Hawkix

1g Au

2012 04 01 miscreanity
2012 05 03 Goat
2012 05 13 Niko
2012 06 12 cloon
2012 08 01 oOoOo
2012 08 03 sadpandatech
2012 08 10 kjlimo
2012 09 03 the joint
2012 12 01 westkybitcoins
2012 12 21 Mageant

2013 01 03 Koekiemonster
2013 03 23 Scott J
2013 04 13 proudhon
2013 06 10 Clark

2014 01 01 farfiman
2014 03 04 Wekkel
2014 04 01 Revalin
2014 05 03 indeededausername
2014 05 05 BTCurious

2016 09 07 sgbett

2018 06 27 trogdorjw73

never - westkybitcoins

pse to let me know if I've made any typos or missed anyone out, mt

Thanks to kilmyos and ineededausername for picking dates extremely close to me :P

Ha! First for both. QE3 better not disappoint.

2013.02.13 - $1B

The crisis of the fiat currencies will mean that more gold will be in demand.

But people also need to know that there is at least 10x more gold on the planet in hidden caches than officially acknowledged:
http://divinecosmos.com/start-here/davids-blog/1022-lawsuit-end-tyranny-ii
http://www.bibliotecapleyades.net/sociopolitica/secretgoldtreaty/contents.htm

^ summary above up dated, I would be fasinated to see Zhou Tong's estimates for this, hey if you're watching Zhou I'll double the prizes if you win for your favourite good cause

whoa, I'm actually a relative bear compared to everyone else

Juggling with numbers can lead to more interesting thoughts.

We know that in 2033, no additional BTC will be available. Let's assume that it will take up to 2033 to spread BTC:
*to the entire population of 6 billion people; or
*in exchange of the global total money supply of USD 60 trillion

To make our life simple, we assume that the annual factor and the base number (people, money supply) remain constant.

The graphs are inserted below.

http://img830.imageshack.us/img830/9150/btcpeople.jpg
people

http://img843.imageshack.us/img843/457/btcmoneysupply.jpg
money supply

The factor [people] is 3,6 (remarkable close to phi), the factor [money supply] is 7,8. Of course, if the total time frame is less than 2009 to 2033, the factor to be used would have to be higher to meet the target.

An interesting aspect is the nature of these graphs, or better to say, the math behind it. The graphs are build up by assuming a constant factor that increases the total number, but halfway, the same factor is used to decrease the increase (=still growth, but less and less annually until it is a flat line). This is based on the assumption that, at first, there will be a low number of participants/money invested in BTC. Moving on, the numbers explode after which the increase will slow down again.

Since it follows from the formula, it is no surprise that the biggest increase is made around 2019-2020. It is clear that if you compress the total time frame to, let's say, 2022, the biggest increase would be round and about 2016. That's not the interesting part.

The interesting part (as far as I am concerned) is that, on the basis of these premises, the number will be approximately 10% of the total number to be reached just when the increase is at its maximum velocity. Above, I already presented the link to a study showing that, for an idea to be accepted, a critical mass of 10% (or 13%) of all people should accept the idea. If the critical mass is reached, the rest will follow as a rule.

http://img440.imageshack.us/img440/5264/330pxdiffusionofideas.png
spread of new idea

The curve used in that study aligns with the formula used in my numbers-juggling-exercise. First the slow start, then the increase, then the top and the following decrease.

To end this pick-your-number-and-base-your-argument-on-that-number exercise, it seems fair to assume that the actual factor of the BTC spread (in terms of people or committed cash) is way higher than the numbers in my projection. At least, in this stage. It remains to be seen whether the actual factor remains very high over the course of the next years.

Someone else may calculate the actual average factor to project the predicted date on which the critical mass of 10% will be reached. It could be a lot sooner than we think, prone to error as we humans are in understanding the exponential factor.

However, another thing to ponder is the known history of inventions, dating back to the 19th century. Usually, an invention lingers for about 10-15 years, before it suddenly gets adopted massively. Nowadays we see shorter time frames (Facebook, Youtube etc), but I think it is reasonable to assume that Bitcoin will stay in the dark for at least two more years before taking off.

Buyin' time  ;D

Great analysis!

Assuming it'll take until 2033 to reach a maximum might be stretching it a bit when taking into account the amplifying effect of progress in general. Normal transitions from one paradigm to another are one thing. I think existing circumstances have the potential to push a somewhat more rapid shift. Facebook's growth exhibits a very similar pattern.

Bitcoin may propagate most rapidly through System D (http://www.freakonomics.com/2011/11/01/the-black-market-is-the-second-largest-economy-in-the-world/). That could hit within the 2-3 year mark as you suggest, and at an estimated $10 trillion it would boost Bitcoin several orders of magnitude in value.

Of course, System D also makes heavy use of Hawala (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hawala)-style networks, so alternate systems such as Ripple (http://ripple-project.org/) will compete (although more in a complementary fashion rather than adversarial). In that sense, Bitcoin could still become a reserve or focal point, with Hawala/Ripple replacing what we currently view as the bank credit system and only engaging in Bitcoin transactions when it is difficult or impractical to engage in transactions otherwise (e.g. a large volume or distance for a small number of transfers).

• Gold/BTC parity/$s - 1st Aug. 2012
• Market cap $B - 30th Oct. 2012

My price -> 158es1Pbb7FLhuzVHVSRDT5bq4KWJ8oyf1

Greets,
oOo

30 Oct 2012 Market Cap $B has already been bagged by sadpandatech, pse choose another date for this - see summary on previous page updated

Note: the average date for the $1B mark is 2013.10.28
That means the price will be about $80 then.

& that'd make the prize total up to $2,000 or $4,000 if Zhou were to play & pick both winning dates, yikes! *quickly buys 50 more BTC @ < $7*

If that prediction (2013.10.28) were to come true then we are way ahead of schedule with a current price of $7.

Here is an interesting calculation.

If we have a $80 target date on 2013.10.28 then we get the following intermediate prices assuming an even exponential rise starting on 2011.01.01 at $0.30:

2012.01.01: $2.17
2012.07.01: $5.87
2013.01.01: $15.80

Surprisingly, the price of $2.17 is very close to the absolute low that was reached in November 2011. So this projection just missed that target price by a few weeks.

So the current price of $6-$7 is either too optimistic or the estimate of $80 on 2013.10.28 is not optimistic enough. Another possibility is though that it will rise more slowly once it reaches higher prices.

I don't trust vertical asymptotes... Horizontal is where it's at.

Here is another calculation:

From $0.30 to $80 is a 266x increase

2011: $0.30 - $5 was already a 16x increase, that means about 16x more to go

projection:
2012: $5 - $40 with a 8x increase (which would still put us about a month too early with the current price, but that's close enough).
2013: $40 - $80 with a 2x increase

1Billion: 1st June 2012

$1B: 22nd May 2013
1g Au: 10th June 2013

$1B: 2012-12-01
1au: never - the $ will have been rendered worthless before btc matches an ounce of gold

1B 2012 05 10

 :(  Summary to date  :)

$1B

2012 05 01 miscreanity
2012 05 10 lord bookington
2012 05 16 cloon
2012 06 01 finway
2012 06 27 Goat
2012 07 04 kjlimo
2012 07 07 foggyb
2012 10 02 niko
2012 10 30 sadpandatech
2012 11 04 the joint
2012 12 01 westkybitcoins
2012 12 07 notme

2013 01 01 farfiman
2013 01 07 chsados
2013 02 13 Mageant
2013 03 23 Scott J
2013 05 05 BTCurious
2013 05 08 kilmyos
2013 05 22 Clark
2013 07 14 Koekiemonster
2013 09 07 sgbett
2013 09 12 istar
2013 12 06 waspoza

2014 01 04 indeededausername
2014 06 23 Kluge

2015 04 01 Revalin

2016 07 08 proudhon

2017 09 11 Wekkel
2017 12 12 trogdorjw73

never - Hawkix

1g Au

2012 04 01 miscreanity
2012 05 03 Goat
2012 05 13 Niko
2012 06 07 foggyb
2012 06 12 cloon
2012 08 01 oOoOo
2012 08 03 sadpandatech
2012 08 10 kjlimo
2012 09 03 the joint
2012 12 07 notme
2012 12 21 Mageant

2013 01 03 Koekiemonster
2013 01 07 chsados
2013 03 23 Scott J
2013 04 13 proudhon
2013 06 10 Clark
2013 12 06 waspoza

2014 01 01 farfiman
2014 03 04 Wekkel
2014 04 01 Revalin
2014 05 03 indeededausername
2014 05 05 BTCurious

2016 09 07 sgbett

2018 06 27 trogdorjw73

never - westkybitcoins

pse to let me know if I've made any typos or missed anyone out, mt

OK last chance for any more votes or date picking here, I shall close this off tomorrow with a final summary (or an edit of the summary above) of the dates that have been chosen & leave the thread open, but any further dates picked after tomorrow will not be eligible for the prizes ~ good luck  :P

I would like to guess 2012-12-07 for both contests.

Lending is the ultimate long position, but $1b is insane. Governments would start getting really aggressive at that point.


.... But there's a 5BTC prize, and "never" can never be paid out, so I'll predict $1b BTC total value on 23rd June, 2014.

I have some difficulty understanding your stance. You seem to think that Bitcoin will lose value until ppl lose interest, leave and delete their wothless wallets to save disk space. While this is a possibility, the believe in it seems inconsistent to spending a lot of time with Bitcoin as you apparently do. Unless you don't value your time either. Don't you consider all the time you invested in Bitcoin a loss? All that knowledge which will be worthless if your hopes come true? Man, you need to get a life.

I would like to guess 2013-01-07 for both contests.

Just a little fix for ya. :)

Insane? It's required! Now you cannot even pay a car with Bitcoin without moving the market.

$1B: 2012 07 07
1g Au: 2012 06 07

Im picking 2015.04.01 (april 1st) for both.

AFAIK, nobody buys cars with Bitcoin (at least not cars worth enough to move the market). Bitcoins are great for novelties, drugs, and discounted gift cards, but video cards are generally the most expensive items users typically buy (pulling that statistic out of my ass, but I don't think many would argue). The Bitcoin exchange rate is extremely volatile, and I don't imagine there are many people willing invest a significant sum of money in a currency which fluctuates 10% in price day-to-day (it's certainly kept me up at night). I don't see any signs of that volatility going away, and while it remains, nobody's going to post in the lending subforum requesting an $80k home mortgage.

This made me curious about what the most expensive thing ever bought with Bitcoin is (I'm suspecting it's a business rather than a commodity). Maybe we need a poll about this too.

$1B isn't insane, the market cap went above $100M during last year. Granted, it was a surprise but if we witness another surprise of that magnitude, $1B would be less than impressive.

summary on the previous page updated

westkybitcoins - thanks for pointing out my error with your AU call

waspoza - your date for B$1 is taken so please re-choose if you wish to enter one for that

You are setting an OUGHT to the current IS. If I thought the current state of Bitcoin is the summit, I'd be out as fast as a transfer goes to MtGox.

I don't think BTC is at its peak, fwiw. I don't recall a time when BTC didn't fluctuate at least 10% in value from the high to low for a week since I've started mining ~April/May '11, however. It's possible BTC could reach $1b in total value, possible God exists as defined by the KJV Bible, and possible Sasquatch exists in space and is plotting the demise of the human race.

Damn, looks like someone have birthday same day as me.  ;)

I'm taking 2013.12.06 (december) then. For both.

Here's the final summary of the dates chosen, voting & prize entries are now closed, with the time frame of the 4 years up to the end of 2017 being the most popular years for issued Bitcoins to reach $1 B in the poll votes, but 2012 taking it in the date choice & the same for 1 BTC to gain parity with 1 gm Au.

Here also a rounded up table of the approx BTC price for achieving $1 B in the years of them being mined & the $ value of each 5 BTC prize offered - though I chose dates for 2015 myself the sooner I get to give those prizes away the happier I'll be  :P

Year  1BTC   5BTC    5BTC     20BTC (the doubled prize for winning both dates)

2012   $110   $550     $550      $2,200
2013   $95     $475     $475      $1,900     <--- WTG BTC & Scott J ~ March 2013 for the double prize!   
2014   $80     $400     $400      $1,600
2015   $75     $375     $375      $1,500
2016   $65     $325     $325      $1,300
2018   $60     $300     $300      $1,200
2020   $55     $275     $275      $1,100
2023   $50     $250     $250      $1,000
2033   $48     $238     $238      $952

 :)   Final Summary   :P

$1B

2012 05 01 miscreanity
2012 05 10 lord bookington
2012 05 16 cloon
2012 06 01 finway
2012 06 27 Goat
2012 07 04 kjlimo
2012 07 07 foggyb
2012 10 02 niko
2012 10 30 sadpandatech
2012 11 04 the joint
2012 12 01 westkybitcoins
2012 12 07 notme

2013 01 01 farfiman
2013 01 07 chsados
2013 02 13 Mageant
2013 03 23 Scott J    <--- looks like a winner, this now confirmed & prize sent  
2013 05 05 BTCurious
2013 05 08 kilmyos
2013 05 22 Clark
2013 07 14 Koekiemonster
2013 09 07 sgbett
2013 09 12 istar
2013 12 06 waspoza

2014 01 04 indeededausername
2014 06 23 Kluge

2015 04 01 Revalin
2015 04 02 Otoh

2016 07 08 proudhon

2017 09 11 Wekkel
2017 12 12 trogdorjw73

Never - Hawkix

1g Au

2012 04 01 miscreanity
2012 05 03 Goat
2012 05 13 Niko
2012 06 07 foggyb
2012 06 12 cloon
2012 08 01 oOoOo
2012 08 03 sadpandatech
2012 08 10 kjlimo
2012 09 03 the joint
2012 12 07 notme
2012 12 21 Mageant

2013 01 03 Koekiemonster
2013 01 07 chsados
2013 03 23 Scott J    <--- looks like a winner, this now confirmed & prize sent  
2013 04 13 proudhon
2013 06 10 Clark
2013 12 06 waspoza

2014 01 01 farfiman
2014 03 04 Wekkel
2014 04 01 Revalin
2014 05 03 indeededausername
2014 05 05 BTCurious

2015 05 05 Otoh

2016 09 07 sgbett

2018 06 27 trogdorjw73

Never - westkybitcoins

Prizes:

1BiLLioN (https://blockchain.info/address/1BiLLioNmhsMauu6CrAchkLRM386A5P6pp)      Sent:  Tx (https://blockchain.info/tx/f88f2a2a6dcb26298270596998a9470ade923c61ea95e90c30c6e51c9e9c3281)

1GramAu1 (https://blockchain.info/address/1GramAu1jEinQiKxPgDTWrFe4MeCxiFnna)   Sent:  Tx (https://blockchain.info/tx/a6b9e02b65c77883c7c8a32ff39678dfd05f421797d51fec55b4aa2285cf7adf)

1x2wins (https://blockchain.info/address/1x2winsjD1MzspV2iBn61PCwc5W2EetfJ)      Sent:  Tx (https://blockchain.info/tx/c03ca27cef8b30aa180b5c94a24111315e37e4e886c174f7b9d67450dff718a4)

There is no chance God exists... there's a remote chance a sasquatch exists... there's almost certainty Bitcoin will reach a market cap of $1b.

I should've said 5/01 for both, so I'd win by default if either hit within the next three months. Does this mean I should be rooting for QE3 & WWIII?

Too many logical fallacies here, and too little time.

Current number of bitcoins: 9.464M

Current bitcoin price: $7.68 USD

Current price of all bitcoins: ~$72.68M

I should have aimed for next year....

It's not impossible for it to happen by December 31st, 2012

I really thought there would be some useful developments for Bitcoin, but other than Bitzino I don't see much on the horizon until Bitcoincard goes into production. If you think of Bitcoin as a business, it doesn't offer much in the way of services yet.

i just had the a long ass day

my father in-law's truck broke down as we tried to leave after picking up a frige and stove

finaly we get back,

somke a joint drink a beer, OPEN  a bottle of wine

i take a cab back


my father in-lawl is now in 100$ in

and who knows about the cab driver

I gave him bitcoin 101 on drugs


and fuck 'en did it did it right,

its not the first time i talk to TAXI VS about bitcoin but this time i spelled it out and this guy is oing in 100$ at least!


bitcoin trutly is a beacon of hpe and thats why man ,..... thats why it works,

because we want it to


BTC BTC

8$ is NOTHING its nothing more then the top after the well deserved bubble we just had ,...

12$ Bitch! paY UP!!! :-*

were going to have another bubble, and then another after that, and another....

Updated the OP & summary post (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=56562.msg726187#msg726187) above to show the prize coins set aside for this, I'm thinking now we'll see this happening in 2017 with a price of over $60 per BTC then & not just a bubble either.

Prizes:

1BiLLioN (https://blockchain.info/address/1BiLLioNmhsMauu6CrAchkLRM386A5P6pp)
1GramAu1 (https://blockchain.info/address/1GramAu1jEinQiKxPgDTWrFe4MeCxiFnna)
1x2wins (https://blockchain.info/address/1x2winsjD1MzspV2iBn61PCwc5W2EetfJ)

Note entries for the prizes are closed.

Looks like this might actually happen this year already.

The 1g AU bet seems to be finished and 1B doesn't seem to be far away as well.

2013 03 23 Scott J
This is de 1g AU winner I guess?

And since Scott has the same date for both I guess there's a pretty good chance he'll win both and so 20BTC or about 2000$ by then.

Yep, you're right - ty, it does look like Scott J has won the 1g Au bet as 1g Au = $51.93 atm (laughably close to it's price when I made this poll over one year ago on 2012 01 04 = $51.25 up under 1.5% only), whilst 1 btc which was under $5 at the time has done appreciably better (up over 1,375%) & is now at $71.50 with this jump up which happened so fast from $50 over the last 3 days or so & did occur since the last person's entry of expected value.

I shall review it all over the next couple of days.

Yep, I can confirm that 1 BTC first equaled 1 gram of gold on the 18th March 2013, so Scott J with a pick of the 23rd March 2013 was easily the closest & wins a 5 BTC prize, for the $1B prize we would need a BTC price of approx $95 if it was to be in 2013 which seems possible now, if over $100 (?) happens before mid April roughly (need to calculate coins issued times price) then Scott J would win the times two doubling prize for a total of 20 BTC all together.

Scott J - please post an address that you would like your prize to be sent to, many thanks & congratulations!

Edit: just tracking you down, it looks like it's: 1ScottJJpqTCBbTqnPa7Dyak5cfBPhtdh - I've PM-ed you for confirmation.

https://i.imgur.com/hNv9jdq.png

https://i.imgur.com/twyuYwA.png


https://i.imgur.com/lnLsbFv.png    >    http://autrading.co.uk/images/P/1%20kg.jpeg    !

Amazing to think that 1,000 BTC now equals considerably more than 1 Kg of gold atm. :o

Funny how the price then climbed about 50% to 1.5 gms Au/BTC over just the next 3 days & then crashed back to about 1 gm again 2 days after that, now somewhere in the middle-ish, maybe 1.25 gms approx.


Edited to add, from the distant future of about Nov 2013, the BTC vs Gold Oz chart:

https://i.imgur.com/BnFgKPL.png

WOW! This is really amazing :o

I obviously thought it so unlikely that I would win either prize, let alone standing a chance of winning the 20 BTC!!

Thank you, Otoh - this was a really fun competition and is very generous of you :)

Sending to this address would be great - 1ScottJJpqTCBbTqnPa7Dyak5cfBPhtdh

My pleasure: https://blockchain.info/tx/a6b9e02b65c77883c7c8a32ff39678dfd05f421797d51fec55b4aa2285cf7adf :)
 
Good luck for the $1B double prize, you should make some headlines if you've predicted that one correctly too ;)

I can but hope :)

I love that there's a public note on the blockchain.info transaction - I assume you have added this somehow?

Thanks again  :)

Yep, it's a feature of the excellent blockchain.info wallets, I expect that you'll need a price of at least $100 if not over by mid April (coins issued to date times value) for $1B, if we hit $100 though I expect that 'the over' part will not be a problem with the news splash that will make, anyway should be a fun month to watch, good luck! :P

I realize the party is over, but here's a guess $1bil on 2013.4.10

Just for my own personal satisfaction.

You're welcome, you could try & guess also when/if 1,000 BTC will equal a London Good Delivery Bar (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Good_Delivery) of say 12.5 Kg, so at present gold prices it would need a Bitcoin price of $646.47 per bitcoin.

http://goldratefortoday.org/images/london-good-delivery-bar.jpg

I like to collect 1 gram gold bars from different manufactures & just like Casascius coins you pay a premium for this, the melt value atm is $51.72 & the premium is usually less than 80% making them very comparable with the Casascius 1 BTC physical coins atm. I guess if you peal a Casascius coin that too is a bit like then getting the melt or scrap value - ie just the actual bitcoins from the private key.


http://casascius.uberbills.com/images/coin.php?address=1AWTGncU&active=1&type=500&ver=1  =   http://cdn2.bigcommerce.com/server5400/c7ftu/products/81/images/203/23561_obv__02720.1353954560.1280.1280.jpg  =   http://www.pampzilla.com/wp-content/uploads/1a_3.jpg  =   http://suissegold.ch/images/P/UBS-1g.jpg

1 BTC = 12.5kg gold bar 2014.9.13

Edit: same hour as original post for typo

I expect that you meant 1,000 BTC = 12.5 Kg of gold here, yes? May as well make this a competition as well then, I'll have a think about an appropriate prize - maybe a couple of 1 BTC Casascius coins, also I've just started a competition thread similar to the one here but for litecoins this time, with a total of up to 500 LTC being offered in prizes.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=157448.0

If anyone wants to make a massive purchase and push the price over $100, I'll be happy to part with 1 BTC of the prize as compensation.

Surely that's enough incentive ;)

May 4th!

Update on $1B

At the time of writing (about 4 hours ago) 228,251 blocks have been mined for a total of 10,956,300 Bitcoins. Multiplied by the price of $89.245 per bitcoin, brings us to a Market capitalization of $977,794,993.50

Data from: http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1b3w7h/so_close_to_1_billion_what_happens_afterwards/ & Gox highest price today.

(In the approx 4 hours since the Reddit OP I think that's about 600 bitcoins extra mined, which I haven't included)

Sorry, Otoh!

Looks like this might just happen  :o

It's all good  ;D

what do u mean in your sig

 LTC = $c³

It's a play on E= Mc² with BTC as energy being = to old fiat $ & cents to the power of 2, ie squared, or in another dimension of functionality, speed, freedom, appreciation, adaption, independence & security.

&/or BTC as equivalent to energy being = in comparison to old fiat $ represented as mass, times the speed of light squared, which to me is the difference between government/central bank currencies & the first really functioning P2P open source virtual currency with a fixed known total number being generated, ie Bitcoin, is in a totally different league in other words.

Re LTC = $c³  It's a bit tongue in cheek, but I'm a great fan of the main BTC Alt & see enormous potential for it's adaption & growth, especially in niche markets where ppl need faster confirmations & where it's more user friendly to have units worth closer to $1 - $10 each say than stratospheric as BTC may become & then having to deal is small fractions of a coin for most uses, so I called it to the power of 3, ie cubed, which I also believe may be the potential investment returns from it in comparison to bitcoins as things stand atm. I think that it compliments Bitcoin fantastically & is the ideal backup up currency. As soon as Armory wallet is forked for use with LTC or any number of other possible Apps or uses I expect to see the LTC price at around 1/10 of BTC's, there are 4 times as many LTC due to exist so this is quite a modest possibility for competitive price if things roll out well.

In this world everything is duality, nothing comes in to existence without it's counterpart, day - night, male - female, energy - matter, yang - yin, life - death, if you like then, Coke - Pepsi, PC - Mac, Etc Etc, I see LTC as being the natural & ideal counterpart to BTC atm., like a piece of paper always has two sides - that's how things are on the Elementry school of Earth & it's what we're here to master IMO..

While two represents duality, three shows the evolution of this, it's offspring or product if you like & so progress.

0. Cowrie shells (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shell_money), etc
1. Fiat (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fiat_money)
2. BTC
3. LTC

2013 04 13 proudhon


--->??????

Congratulations Scott J!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_MjelxPz5Og

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FMrIy9zm7QY

I think that guess was for the gold competition.

Thank you!

Though I am not going to celebrate until I get confirmation from the man himself  ;D

Wow.. how'd you guess that

I put it down to my B in GCSE maths  ;)

Any future guesses in the coming months? ;)

A couple of hours ago I'm seeing Bitcoin monetary base is 10,959,250 BTC, which is worth over $1,000,000,000 USD at current price, so a $1B market cap (if that's the correct term) (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=142201.0), anyway a net market value for Bitcoin of $1B, later today when I've looked in to the exact block multiplied by the price when it was mined then I will confirm, it looks like Scott J scooped the double prizes for sure though, especially as the price has gone up to a high of $95.70 since, Congrats! Same address?

Mouse over shows total bitcoins mined to date (https://blockchain.info/charts/total-bitcoins?timespan=30days&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=) = 10,950,975 BTC, or on http://www.blockchained.com/ it shows 10,960,050 coins, anyway it's over 1B$ at current prices, not sure exactly which block made it but it's confirmed.

Close your eyes.. sooo..
Now! Open your eyes. Here we are.

The same address will be fine, thank you so much!

Cool, I'm afk for a few hours now but will send it upon my return & also PM you re a possible small favor.

Prizes sent :) & a PM too ;)

https://blockchain.info/tx/f88f2a2a6dcb26298270596998a9470ade923c61ea95e90c30c6e51c9e9c3281

https://blockchain.info/tx/c03ca27cef8b30aa180b5c94a24111315e37e4e886c174f7b9d67450dff718a4

I am delighted that Scott J has won this & thank him for his very generous freely given contribution to my favorite personal charity, a savings fund in BTC/LTC for college fees etc of a child who's father died in a tragic accident in 2010 & who's mother's sister is a very good friend of mine.

Wishing everyone who entered the best of luck on my LTC comp, with a total of 500 LTC in prizes up for grabs. :P

Thank you again, Otoh!

I am really happy to contribute to such a worthwhile cause :)

I suspect that the universe may have taken you up on your (tongue in cheek) offer to pay a 1 BTC reward if someone would buy to $100, though it got you the double prize without needing to push the price up that far, for me one's potential behavior in the future totally influences events in the present & so how they turn out.

This would be a good poll to re-open.

+1

I will do so tomorrow on a new thread.

Edit: as we're back above $100 atm, then we're well > $1B again so no need to do this right now.

How about now? :)

lol, let me think about it for a day or two, but if we go under $50 then yes definitely.

Still thinking.

We're still too close Btc = $75 approx, for a total of $844M (http://bitcoinwatch.com/) atm & if/when Btc = $88 it would bring us back to over $1B again, it's only dipped under that for 2 days or less atm, but if the price does fall to $50 or less then definately it's due for a re-run. If it stays well under for a month, in the $50s to $60s, then that also would warrent a rerun I guess.

https://i.imgur.com/zu5Ttcw.png

Since we made $1B last March we have only dipped below it for a few days at most, it will be interesting to see if it's going to be different this time.

https://i.imgur.com/G5W3Y3s.png

Clearer edit without the volume lines, though they're of interest so I'll leave the previous pic up too.

That's a nice graph! I like how you took into account the coin generation :)

Many thanks, glad you like & Bitcoin recovered to over $88 on Wednesday the 10th July for $1B again, atm it's dipped just below the line, with 11,400,625 coins (http://bitcoinwatch.com/) out there $1B needs a price of $87.70 atm for $1B.