Bitcoin Forum

You get the idea. After visiting 63 USD (stamp) in July 2013, we never went that low again (cough except for gox traders of course, who got near). Which makes it the bottom of the previous post-ATH downtrend. What about 340 yesterday? Bottom or not?

In case you wonder, I'm asking the question not because I believe it can tell us much about the future (i.e. I'm not trying to gauge this mythical "sentiment" that supposedly tells us when a correction is over), but because I'd like to come back to this poll during the *next* bubble. Think of it as an amusing little experiment that we can look at again in a year or two, and draw some conclusions then perhaps.


EDIT: btw, I will lock the poll after 24h, so we get a proper snapshot of the sentiment immediately after the drop.

EDIT 2: poll is locked now.

We went from a ratio slightly above 2:1 in favor of "it was the bottom" to slightly below 2:1 now. A pretty clear signal that the forum thinks the bottom is in.

I plan to ask this question again in the future during the next bottom (whenever that may be), and ultimately make it a series of polls... the plan is that maybe we are getting some interesting information about the relationship between forum sentiment and market action

Final EDIT: For some reason it seems that, once the poll is locked, others can't view the results anymore... so here's a screencap of the final result:

https://i.imgur.com/1Tluw8B.png

In 2011, after the first major bubble, the price went from $35 to $2.  The corresponding drop from the peak of $1,200 would be $68.57, but it's likely that the trough will be higher this time due to more widespread knowledge of cryptocurrencies.

This could be a beartrap, look at the charts...

$340 is a great fucking price to buy in at

I seriously doubt we gonna see it again

Top was 32, I think. But agreed, I'd be very surprised if we would see a corresponding decline of (1/2)^4 like back then, considering that the run-up to 1200 saw a much smaller increase. For comparison, I like to think of the 2013 decline as (approximately) halving twice 260, 130, ~65.

^^ You're right, it's almost 32

2011-06-08 00:00:00   23.9999   31.9099   22.2135   29.6   104925.16   2858820.38   27.25

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#tgSzm1g10zm2g25zv

No fkn chance.....

....and since the majority are always wrong.....

Matt is back!

I highly doubt it. Far more likely this is just a retrace, and soon we'll be breaking new lows.

A $340 bottom would be fairly consistent with the past drops from ATHs.

What confuses me is that the very bearish sentiment almost approached the point of being a bullish indicator, but we never really saw "blood in the streets". In other words, I don't think we reached a psychological bottom that would likely correspond to a fiat price bottom, IMO.

I'm very cautiously starting to take a long position again.

See, but that'll be the fun part. In 3 years from now, when we drop from 9k to 4k, I will ask again "did we hit rock bottom". Then I'll dig up this thread as well and... won't be able to conclude anything... damn. I must have missed a step :D

Of course not. It may be the local bottom of the second leg (if it got truncated) of wave C, but the third leg (and most powerful) is yet to come.
Just look at the volume, it's not even close to what a final bottom should look like. And the ask sum on Bitstamp is too small for the final bottom.
When the piglets will squeal 'Bitcoin is dead!', 'it's going to zero!', then you'll know that the final bottom is near.  ;D

Bears on very thin ice currently

http://thepolarbearblog.blog.com/files/2013/01/95606819-polar-bears-300x236.jpg

yes it was the bottom, the quick recovery indicates it.

smart money buys as soon as possible.

Don't forget to vote, please.

The idea is to get a quantitative snapshot of forum sentiment for posterity, not so much a qualitative one (i.e. stuff your arguments for why it's over or not :D), according to my half-arsed idea of a longer running experiment.

I have no clue, but it would suck to have missed out on the bottom.  I have been on the sidelines watching and waiting for the so called " blood in the streets " to happen, but it didn't seem like that was it. 

No, not the bottom. There is not enough inbound capital to sustain this valuation, and the lower it goes the more that sideline capital waiting to get in will turn to scared money. I think we'll need to see a good month of lateral stability before you can call it a bottom.

Low 4's is still good though, compared to the almost 500 earlier last week. Given the overall upswing and time of year, you still have a good buy in price now.

We'll be going lower, patience is a virtue.

I was finally able to jump in at just under 400 though but I do hope it goes lower so I can pick up more.  :P

Dude, 300kBTC changed hands in 36 hours. Have you noticed the market is fragmented with 3 big players and several others with significant volume? http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/

Days with 24-hour volume higher than 200kBTC were scarce in MtGox monopoly time. Noticeably higher volume than in previous bottom: http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#czsg2010-08-01zeg2013-03-01ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzl

The volume yesterday was noticeably higher than in previous, $460 bottom. Therefore, volume-wise we are at the equivalent to Nov'11. There, I said it.  ;D

Yes.

You don't need absolute bearish sentiment ,I.e., a majority. You simply need relative bearish sentiment, I.e., worse than at any point (or close to it) since the $1150 peak.

even if it was not, it was very close. we might dip to 300, even 280, but the rebound would be ferocious. we might never go there again, and just sit in 380-420 region for a while just like last summer. or we might sharply correct to 600-800 region if there is some sustainable china resolution.

"300k BTC changed hands"?

"Higher volume than previous bottom"?

Oh, you're counting Chinese volume 1:1. I wouldn't do that. Here's what I think matters, volume wise:

https://i.imgur.com/A1vWWMW.png

https://i.imgur.com/I7u4ewS.png

Anything in $3xx is a great deal to pick up those coins...its bottomed out nicely and expect a run up sooner or later. Now is the time to buy back in!

No blood in the streets.

Still bearish and not bottom.

hunting for bears today and cant find any can you point me to them?

we got a few laying the grass  :D

http://www.grandviewoutdoors.com/ext/resources/images/Editorial/Predator_Hunting/features/Oct-13/lancellotti-bear-8-13.jpg?1381415035

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zigDailyzczsg2013-03-11zeg2013-08-12ztgMzm1g10zm2g25zv

In retrospect of the april bubble, we can notice how the volume peaked during the reversal, and then subsequently decreased as time went by. If we factor in that a lot of people have lost confidence in exchanges, and that by now, most of the weak hands have been shaken off their coins, I simply don't see how we could have days with more than 100kBTC traded on stamp or btc-e anymore, at least for the short-term.

Sorry, I didn't finish editing my previous post.

No, I am not counting Huobi et al, their volume is fake. I am combining Bitstamp, BTC-e and Bitfinex and adding 20kBTC for good measure of the mid-sized exchanges like BTC-China, Kraken, etc. Added, they had 160kBTC 24-hour volume at the $460 bottom and 200k now, which has been sustained for almost a day, making it more like 300kBTC.

EDIT: And thanks for the charts, I hadn't noticed today's green candle has as much volume as yesterday's red one, which makes it different from the previous bottoms you are comparing it to.   :D

We could re-test 340 and maybe go a little lower.
If you are not "almost all in" at ~$351, then you are doing something wrong.
Buy BTC...

Okay, I understand now. I still see a decline in volume (good view imo via short volume MA on tradingview) , but I guess time will tell :)

I think the capitulation is over and we have seen the bottom. Most of the weak hands have been shaken off yesterday and from now on the market is slowly building up momentum. To crash lower than 340$ again would require many whales to manipulate the market at the same time, or some really bad news to pop up unexpectedly. If I wasn't already all-in, I'd definitely go all-in NOW.

I would dare say that the core fear driving all Chinese speculators or exchange owners was whether the PBOC was going to outlaw the exchanges themselves.  

If the exchanges are not banned, then Bitcoin actually does have a chance in China.

>>  but the rebound would be ferocious.

Nailed it.  I'd say we had a pretty quick rebound from 340.  

Suddenly the poll has no importance?

So far 2:1 say it was the bottom.

Do you think generally optimistic hodling bulls are majority in speculation forum?

Fine.. fine FINE, GOING TO THE EXCHANGE TONIGHT

Oh sad, I cannot vote. Yes I give it a 70% chance that it was the bottom considering the price now. If the price was sitting under 400 for the past day, then I would say No, it's going lower, but since it climbed up to 420-440 and has held that range, I think it is unlikely we'll retest 340-350 (unless of course, another HUGE piece of bad news ... like Jesus Christ sells all his bitcoin, or something).

Keep in mind that this is a bitcoin forum. People are generally bullish on bitcoin here. Imagine the same poll on yahoo.finance for example. Do you think we get the same results?

How does surveying people who are not invested in bitcoin help the thread's cause?

That being said, I think the results are indeed a bit skewed, no matter what, since everyone here is a long-term bitbull.

It does not. I'm saying that the majority now would not be the majority if you asked the same question in a different audience. So the 'majority' may not be wrong this time. Follow me?

because past bottoms in the current downtrend we terminated by seller exhaustion.  this was terminated by bullish events.

I wouldn't be surprised if we dip once more to the ~300 range. I still don't think the ride is over in the short-term yet. Heck, I look at an exponential price chart and even 250 looks reasonable.

ZERO soon   :D

How long did price stay @ 350 

I tend to agree.

While I hope this is the final bottom there is no way to know, I imagine there is still some bad news to come for bitcoin.  However, the rally off the bottom is encouraging.

For posterity: I do not think it was a final bottom and have not started buying yet.

Wow, you sure do have hard balls and patience of steel there.

350 was a blessing. bottom or no, how could anyone pass up such an opportunity?

That only makes sense from the perspective of a certain type of investor: a) unwilling to trade often (i.e. mostly buy & hold style), and b) completely convinced of the long-term success of Bitcoin.

I'm relatively agnostic right now about whether that was the final bottom or not (although I'm leaning towards 'not'), but to answer your question, "how could anyone pass up such an opportunity": those who believe BTC/USD is still in for a longer decline before it can go up again, and who are at the same time not interested in making a quick profit by trading the immediate retracement after the (local) bottom.

We will be below 400 soon I think

340 usd is just begin, it go to zero !

i'm sure it will never reach zero, but zeros might be part of the number, yes.

here we go ;) knocking at 400

I think we're going to be kissing that "floor" for a while. Although, I wouldn't be surprised if there is another piece of news that causes the price to flash to around 300 at some point. But I think within a month we'll be steadily climbing again with a stable rising floor.

Sub 100 prices are coming soon, due to more bad news.

Time for that recovery since most people have been shaken out who want to sell by now

Don't throw things but I have to admit that I'd really like it if it'd drop down to like 50 bucks for about 2 weeks...so I can load up cheap, and *then* launch upwards for the next year or two...

Can't help it. Just 2 weeks or so...  ;D

adjust your definition of cheap - that was anything below $500. or sit there for the rest of your life, waiting for 50, your choice...

It has hit the bottom, now its time to hit 10k..

LOL

You would think with all the egg on peoples' faces that have said "we won't see XYZ again," these sorts of comments would slow down or stop entirely. Guess not.

You would think with all the egg on peoples' faces that are still waiting for $1 or $10 or $100 bitcoins, these sorts of responses would slow down or stop entirely. Guess not.

Wow, thank you! :) Actually, I do not have hard balls - or any other balls, for that matter ;) And I am not a particularly patient person. I am just having a somewhat different perspective than most in this forum. I have come to the party very late January/February this year - and although I would like to believe another ATH is before us, I am not (completely) sure. So for me the perspective of loosing investing that late is very real. And I am also not one of these people believing that buy-in price does not matter because there are 10,100 or 1000 x gains in the future. Been there, done that. Another investment, another country, another year. But the same philosophy: that only thing that matters is to buy, investment opportunity of the lifetime, normal rules do not apply ... To make the long story short, I did buy immediately back then, and lost most of my money. Fortunately, I have very few money back then as I was still in school, but the lesson was learnt. So - still not buying, although situation does look better in short term. I am also OK with never buying any bitcoin - but not OK with loosing like 50% of the money invested ;)

Buying BTC is not investing.

Buying BTC mining equipment or putting your money into a Bitcoin-related enterprise is investing.

I am not interested in day trading, if I would buy bitcoin, I would hold it for years or at least months. Do you suggest I should call it speculating anyway? Gambling it is not, imho, if I am doing my homework ;)

Btw, by buying bitcoin I would also indirectly support miners and the whole growing ecosystem. Anyway, what do you think I should call it?

BTC is naturally risky.
Speculating is an accurate word.

From online dictionary:

invest,
verb (used with object)
1.
to put (money) to use, by purchase or expenditure, in something offering potential profitable returns, as interest, income, or appreciation in value.
2.
to use (money), as in accumulating something: to invest large sums in books.

That fact that bitcoin is risky - and I complete agree here - is not in any way related to its being a potential investment. It is simply a risky investment, always has been, and that is why it is offering higher return potential. Seems pretty simple, not sure what is a problem here?


Traditionally, the difference between "investment" vs "speculation" has been time horizon. Mine is definitely longer term, hence investment. Btw, buying mining equipment is also risky ;)

Highest risk investment with, potentially, the highest reward. That's why we're all here! It's exciting to watch your net worth increase (or decrease) by an order of magnitude each year.

This is a good point!  Bitcoin is pretty entertaining to watch and owning some is like always having a bet down in a casino!

Buying BTC is investing according to the dictionary, since hodling is waiting for appreiciation in value.


in·vest·ment  [in-vest-muhnt]  Show IPA
noun
1.
the investing of money or capital in order to gain profitable returns, as interest, income, or appreciation in value.
2.
a particular instance or mode of investing.
3.
a thing invested in, as a business, a quantity of shares of stock, etc.
4.
something that is invested; sum invested.
5.
the act or fact of investing or state of being invested, as with a garment.


P.S. Someone already posted this  :-[

I think I finally got the last remaining pieces of eggshell out of my hair. 

"the final fall to the bottom"  umm if you want someone to answer this then they're gonna need a crystal ball friend.

Crystal balls of steel!

I think njcarlos slowly started realizing that eggs would be the only thing he can buy now instead of bitcoins :)

Despite the temp uptick, the trend is still down.  And we have yet to see a base form.  The market won't take off again until it has a base to support it.

No worries... you have time to accumulate your position.  Buy on the dips.  Don't get seduced by these temp spikes, buying in on a panic.

Soooooo full of shit we broke through the 520 long term trend resistance point ...even the top levels depnding whos chart u were looking at

This is teh uptrend ..i just got a special friend rice delivery and the CHINESE delivery guy winked at me so ... these facts can not be denied !!!

Ah, time will tell.

Fundamental forces that govern the markets never change.  The market won't take off until another base forms.

Hear me now, believe me later... that base has not formed yet.  And as such, any spike in price will be short lived.  It needs a base to power the next run.

But of course don't let that stop you from panic buying in on this spike.  If you hold long enough you'll still make out okay.

P.s. Did your Chinese friend give you anymore inside knowledge?  A wink seems solid enough for me... buy, buy buy (eye roll).

Does he know you are interested in bitcoin?  :D

Have a look at how the bases were forming in all previous crashes. After hitting a minimum, the price bounces back up and sits there for a month or two, getting comfortable. So the ~500 range (or more broadly, 400-600 range) would, as predicted long ago, be the new base from where we take off in several months. But the downtrend is over at this point.

Same agreement looking forward to a fairly stable point guess I'll ponder selling some position around the end of the year on the assumption the next bubble breaks ATH + 80% then wait for the reversal lol.

I am not sure we will ever see $360 again, like we never say $64 or $266 (flash crash by $102 guys excluded).