Bitcoin Forum

Volume creeping up, China waking up.   It's breakout time!!


http://i61.tinypic.com/14n1dg7.png
http://i62.tinypic.com/2m4zj4n.jpg


If you are not all in in BTC, or going long, WTF are you doing?? Playing Pump&Dump shitcoins?? LMAO

AGreed ..... this is it :D

get on board of be left behind ...so much energy had been waiting on the side lines :D

Oh, wow.

watch the magic, as resistance turns to support. bears best friend now = bears worst enemy.

CHOO CHOO!

What do you think the velocity of this will be? $3 per hour? $5?  $10?

We should not fall for this and scrutinize the facts thoroughly. Many await to deceive us.

Last 3 hrs we climbed about $30. This means $10 per hour. So in the next 24 hrs, we go 760. After that, 1000. 1240. By Saturday we're looking at 1500 at least.

There is no way that this is a straight line advance.  I hope we are moving back up to test earlier highs, but seriously, suggesting 10 USD straight line advance is just not credible.

The higher it goes the more certain people will panic buy, noone wants to miss the train :D

I'm retarded. I sold a fair amount of my btc while the price was going down.
China, I hate you.

It's always difficult to predict the future ofcourse, I wanted to buy more at $360 but unfortunately didn't because I was thinking it would drop more.

Everyone gets fucked by this market unless you are one of the pirates who are loading the dice and dishing out the fucking. Early adopters aside, bulls, bears, are full of regrets and all full of woulda, shoulda, and couldas everywhere you care look, whether they admit it openly or not. All the while, piles of fiat flow into whoever the fuck controls the levers of the fake volume machine in China. Important break out targets will be hit, huge support will build up from those not wanting to miss the boat, and then comes the dumps as the fake volume levers are pulled into reverse to coincide with another China ban news event.

It will stop when enough Bitcoin investors get fed up of pouring real wealth into Chinese manipulators pockets and the real market liquidity totally dries up.

I am out, if I wake up tomorrow and Bitcoin is at $700 then I won't give a shit. I am totally out and breathing a sigh of relief that I no longer need to stress myself out over this corrupt, totally rigged, hooky fucking market. No matter what you do, you are going to be faced with an array of missed opportunities and regretable decisions that you made. After all, if some people have become and are still becoming obscenely rich through this grand pump n dump scheme, that money has got to be coming out of someone's pocket. Hell, if a fkn reactionary impulsive stupid arsehole like me can leave Bitcoin with a net profit, then someone somewhere must really be getting taking to the fkn cleaners.

Ask yourself this. If Bitcoin really is about to take of to Mars, where are the next round of suckers/adopters coming from?

Are Wall St about to pile in at + $500 BTC?

thats the strength of sentiment/EW trading/reading. separate yourself from the crowd and fuck it up a little bit for the corrupt bastards. they can only make me money if they scare the shit outta people. But im just providing liquidity.

Resignation

Yet another sentiment data point that we leaving the bottom of the November bubble collapse.

Nice & Healthy growth will be 20-50$ per day (so ~ 2$ per hour if it worked like that :D )

BTW this is really not healthy but "THIS IS BICTOIN"  8)

I agree totally with you chart

405 was the golden line of resistance ...we only went below that for 8 hours...

Thats toooo aggressive ..but i like your thinking

Take a Valium ...if we get 50 per day that will be good :D

Waiting for the sharp bounceback once people start dumping. I spent 2.7 BTC yesterday and was looking to replace them with cheaper coins. Then, BTC has permission to go to the moon.

Wow...that's a rant.

Hope you're not thinking of jumping out any skyscraper windows, dude. Seriously. It's a roller coaster ride. One that takes your money and then gives it back...in spades.

Actually this is the one that I'm watching.  You shouldn't use linear scale for bitcoin TA.

https://i.imgur.com/u3CMcDO.png

.....why not use both. the stamp wedge is flat as a pancake on linear scale.

A linear wedge is geometrically bound to break inevitably. A triangle is finite. That doesn't mean a reversal is guaranteed by that time. A logarithmic scale, on the other hand, is infinite and allows you to observe exponential decay.

http://s22.postimg.org/jaygdbgb5/hobilog.png

There are slightly better coordinates to use for that wedge. It's quite exact.

if it hits 3280 before 3200 then that could be a bullish wedge forming. passing 3200 first would mean rejection short term. bearish.

Charts notwithstanding, what is it you're accounting for in the opinions it'll go back up and by how much?

Thanks.

who, me? I have accounted for bull and bear situation. why might it go back up? because we are near fresh highs and haven't had a substantial reaction yet. how is the chart 'not withstanding' and how do you expect me to account for a $10 move that hasn't happened yet?

It wasn't an attack question. I see these charts all over the place but not sure how to read them or what conditions are being used or considered to make these various predictions.

I was asking, aside from the charts themselves, what are you (as in people generally, not anyone in particular) using as a basis to determine your predictions.

Trying to learn is all.

ETA - I joined the forum about the 29th I think and the price of btc had been about 450-490. I watched through the drop to 339 and now it's up to 515. What was the price range average for most of March?

Most people's logic here is that as soon the price stops trending down, the next stop is ATH, because is that is what has mostly happened in the past.

al good  ;) wasnt an attack answer either. but from a TA perspective, tough questions!

.... what we have here is a wedge. a force moves the market into new territory, and then price is range bound between beginning and end extremes while liquidity and volatility disappear as it consolidates. it forms a triangle shape we call a wedge. when the liquidity dries up, the market has to move one way or another (where the next bidder bids), and by rule of thumb we say it will go in the direction of the trend.

I am using fundamentals to justify that we are in an up trend now. therefore I seek to buy on dips and breakouts.

the technology is a phenomena..... this is not weak logic. a sequence of 5 is the best correlation a technical analyst could ever hope for, and the fundamentals are expanding exponentially. how can you expect after 5 years that this is just gonna have a break year? bitcoin has never grown at such a rate as it is growing now fundamentally.

When I look at these charts, I still have it that BTC price needs to break an upper limit before I think we'll be seeing an upward trend. If it hits around ~600 in the next day or two, then it might be the start of another strong rally (although, I think this rally will be significantly prolonged in both growth speed and how long the "top" will last for compared to others in the past).

That said, I don't know where all of the funds to support another rally will come from at this particular moment.

dhomsdad, wrong. TA, EW and risk management all have fundamental explanation. If you dont know the explanations, then that is why you are wrong. If you think I am trading without fundamental analysis and strategic fundamental goals, then you are very wrong.

Agreed ... My bullish outlook 2 weeks ago was not one based on the charts alone as to put it mildly

If it was a horse you would have shot it ...

Bitcoin is a movement not a commodity or currency and to use a rather over used word we are starting to mainstream

Personally one of the biggest fundamental GOOD news was the collapse of Gox ...This for me was a defining moment of where we have moved from Amatuer into a new qauntum step of maturity

Look at all of teh VC $$ going into bitcoin ..As a seasoned developer there are sooo many applications for bitcoin it boggles the mind

THIS IS WHY I AM "ALL IN"  8)

Such as?

(no star wars jokes please! I'm even trying to refrain from it myself  ;D )

I did keep an eye on the china/15th deal and asked a few times in several places I totally forgot to watch whether it would be a reasonable possibility that china's restrictions on the btc exchanges were less real and more just a tactic to drive the price down so they could rack up, then it'd go back up - but have no clue if anyone ever answered those.

I figure you mean "market forces" but if so, I'm not clear on what that entails or consists of.

As for forum propaganda and gloom and doom, I see that easily and don't take that into consideration much because I know "the market" isn't this forum. I still feel that the price will go up in a couple months - to a more substantial level from here - because of the Google Glass official release with that app, and several other companies setting up for bitcoin which will be a foundation for getting bitcoin into the mainstream. I absolutely feel that btc will go mainstream in the next 2 years and would escalate in value in that respect but have no idea how the *price* increase is measured into that. Any help clarifying how that works would be greatly appreciated if anyone wants to tackle that one!

Huobi is the new Mtgox. We're still not past the point of a centralized high volume exchange with shady operations and manipulation serving as market leader with the rest of the exchanges as slaves.

Will this ever happen ?? ... FOREX has the same problems with shady operators

Its human nature and I dont think there is a fix unless u regulate ... Then one side effect of this is that we are stuck with special interest groups rigging the game :(

I just don't think you can say we've moved on from mtgox when now we have something even worse.

Cue Cosmofly predictions

My quantum physical kantian formulas have calculated a 99.99% chance that bitcoin price will either rise or fall. My cousin with cerebral palsy who is very good at visual basic proves this and has predicted no more than a 1% margin of error. You will see!

P.S. all 1000 of wives are hawt. Best investment of my money evar.

http://collider.com/wp-content/uploads/cosmopolis-poster2-441x600.jpg

End transmission of Cosmofly predictions

<CosmoTard>

I will be right all the time  (margin of error of 50% of the time)

<CosmoTard>

Have they locked accounts ??

Have they stopped withdrawls ??

Have they slowed depoists/withdrawls down to weeks ??

Have they made up bullshit as to the soundness of the bitcoin network to deflect blame for the embezzalment funds ???

I understand teh dubious nature of Hubiou but they have a LONG LONG way to go before they are GOX 2.0

The history of how gox fucked over everybody time & time again..year after year ...It was sooo painful for me GOX gone was the most bullish single I have had in the last 12 months of crypto

There is one more candidate left BFL and once these parasites go I will sleep at peace at night for the future of crypto (they are not so much of any consequence these days but it would help keep everything nice and neat with them gone...my OCD tendecenys would be happy)

at least good News from you.
Hope you are reliable

hmm buy in at soonest opportunity I must me thinks.  Missing the train/rocket ship and being left behind on the platform is out of the question.  Thanks for the heads up and analysis.

Actually on a log scale, which if you believe in TA is the correct way to measure, we are still bouncing off it

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BlVGTktCEAEOuuK.png

I had 520 others had 540 ... we hung out at 520 for a looooooooonnnnnnnnngggggg time .. regardless we broke through

Agree to disagree but YOUR 600 will be done by tom :D

Don't get me wrong, I pray and hope the trend is reversed. Just still a little nervous we haven't quite got there yet.

Just to make it clear, I calculate on a log scale that 558 is the long term breakout price

Praying for it.

My hymen isn't broken yet... It has 3 layers  ;D ;D ;D

http://s9.postimg.org/mvij172ov/Untitled.png
http://s28.postimg.org/nlddui2yl/image.png

Here are lines drawn using a peak point indicator. On macro scale and as micro scale as I can go and the line get drawn

http://i623.photobucket.com/albums/tt319/studio1one/logbreakoutbig_zps69c5f5fc.jpg

Below you can see where the peak point indicator draws in the logarithmic head of the long term down trend started at peak price

http://i623.photobucket.com/albums/tt319/studio1one/logbreakout6_zpsa5595ebe.jpg

Fat lady is not singing quite yet.

I standby my previous prediction that btc price will ping-pong between $400 and $600 all through 2014. I will be bullish in 2015.

This is NOT a bubble, just a correction back up to historical trend line.

The log10 trendline is rising at about $7 daily. In contrast to your view, I believe that bitcoin prices rise at that rate until resistance at $800 is reached. After bumping against that for awhile, the next bubble will get going in earnest.

From the current situation, I project the next bubble to peak in July-August at about $6000 and collapse through the end of the year at $3000. The bubble beyond that would occur in 2015 - I think.

Bitcoin is not an idle currency. In a year, it can only get a lot better or a lot worse. fundamentals say a lot better.

Obvious which way we're going... up up up  8) 8) 8)

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=bitstampUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=&i=Weekly&c=0&s=&e=&Prev=&Next=&t=S&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=1&cv=0&ps=1&l=1&p=0&

If we hit 900 or something soon then the weekly pSar will flip. That would mean something serious.

In the USA, the Securities and Exchange Commission compels every securities marketing text to include this warning. Indeed there is relevant academic research to show that winners in a particular time period are less likely than average to be winners in the subsequent time period.

Yet common sense reveals the defect in your reasoning. Supposing you were given a choice of buying one of two retail store chains. Company A has a history of closing stores and losing money, and company B has a history of opening stores and making money. Which company would you prudently buy? The one whose price chart is falling or the one whose price chart is rising?

A weaker form of your argument I could agree with . . .

Past performance is not indicative of future results, given that the conditions that led to the past performance have changed

Charting in particular and technical analysis in general, seeks to quantify human emotion, and the algorithms of trading bots that create and reverse price trends. This notion is sufficient to rebut your point, but there is more.

Long term Bitcoin charting works in the same way that I can predict the received luminosity of a certain candle at 10 meters by charting the luminosity at various lesser distances from the candle. There is an underlying mechanical principal involved and charting finds the parameters of the model.

For long term bitcoin price charting, the principal is the incremental temporal spread of a disruptive technology, starting a zero adoption and culminating at full adoption by the population of those who are ever going to use bitcoin - and recognizing that there is a population of those who will never ever use bitcoin. The latter we do not care about.

I, for one, am a proud chartist.

Yet bitcoin still has your attention enough that you're following its price and posting in this forum.

Glad to share, even if you are merely an observer. Others reading this may consider what I say from a different viewpoint than yours. You must admit that algorithmic trading which utterly dominates large markets in almost every security is codified realtime technical analysis.

The goal of my bitcoin TA is to manually and infrequently perform trades that enable me to gain more coin, not to increase my amount of fiat. A second goal is to understand the phase of the market and thus avoid making poor decisions based upon panic or mania.

My most important bitcoin TA is calling the peak of a bubble. Using only historical price action I predict that a very good time to sell will be when the price appears to be doubling in approximately a week,i.e. the culmination of a super-exponential growth phase. There is academic research on the study of various bubbles to support this tactic. The peak is a good time to sell or spend bitcoin, either to take profit or to buy back later to increase the number of held coins.

My second most important bitcoin TA determines a good place to buy, e.g. additional accumulation, or a buy-back from a previous sale, or otherwise a good time to postpone spending coin. Using data from the last two bubbles I predict a good time to buy is right now because the Log10 price deviation from the Logistic Model Log10 price trendline is -0.344, which is less than -0.3 limit that was a good point in the collapse of the June 2011 and April 2013 bubbles.

The long term price trend, as measured by my model, is currently at $1057 and rising at more than $7 daily. This is a great comfort to me knowing that there should be a strong bias to return to the trend, and that affects my short term technical analysis described next.

The most common technical pattern that I recognize in the historical price series is what I call a shock, conceptualized as a dampened oscillation. A positive or negative impulse exhausts the ask order book or bid order book respectively, to a certain depth depending upon the strength, i.e. volume of the move. The impulse is caused by what market microstructure theory dubs an informed trader, i.e. someone with a reason to trade. The other traders, dubbed uniformed traders, react to the impulse but lack the reason, and move price action back towards a central point. The oscillation is caused by market making activity in which mostly uninformed traders try to profit from each other based on differing notion of where the volume-weighed center is and whether it is likely that other informed traders will enter the market. According to the Wisdom of Crowds principle, the oscillations dampen in time. This sort of pattern is a fractal, meaning that it can occur over almost any time duration. Traditional chartists have named these patterns triangles, wedges and flags.

I do not trade bitcoin on the short or medium term. Commissions at USD exchanges tilt the odds greatly in favor of the exchange. Market makers, employing algorithmic bots do much better when trading fees are zero - hence the tremendous volume on the many fiercely competitive Chinese exchanges having no trading fees.

With only a mild degree of confidence, I predict the next bubble to peak this July-August at about $6000 and for prices to collapse in the fall to about $3000. When the next all time high occurs, I believe that I can improve this prediction with more confidence - using the date of the ATH alone as input.

Here is my prediction for the next few weeks. We are at a dramatic situation from a technical point of view. The declining resistance line touches or nearly touches  the tops of a number of price waves in the dampened oscillation resulting from shock collapse from the bubble peak in November. I will use a long duration chart with one-week candles to illustrate the point . . .

https://i.imgur.com/GLHaXX9.png

When I look at the above chart, I conceptualize the price as having bounced away from the drawn resistance line. There are of course assorted external or fundamental causes for each of the price moves, but TA abstracts all that away with the presumption that the price and volume indirectly incorporate that knowledge via the trading behavior of the participants who perceived that information and took action.

The drama is occurring because most of the technical chartists, and I too, believe that the bubble collapse bottom occurred on April 10 at $339. And therefore the drawn line of resistance must be broken through on the trajectory to the next much higher bubble peak. The price could bust through in a strong impulse, or could continue sideways in what chartists call a channel. Here is a close up of the drama, using a 12-hour candlestick resolution . . .

https://i.imgur.com/46wxZR1.png

The upper drawn resistance line is the same as from the first chart. I have drawn a low-confidence support line to show how the price future path is constrained to bounce back and forth in a dampened oscillation centered at $424. I say low-confidence because the central tendency could very well be some other price points where trading occurred over a period long enough to convince traders that the particular price was fair considering what they knew of the situation.

It is important in my analysis to presume that the bottom is behind us. Because it matters less which particular lilne of support is drawn - any of them that I would draw force a convergence in the month of May. Which comes to my short term price predictions . . .

1. Presuming the bottom is behind us. the price will never again go below $339.79

2. By the end of May the price will be higher than the drawn resistance line, namely above $424.

3. In the month before the new bubble begins, prices will rise on average $7 per day.

SlipperySlope - great analysis. I hope you're right.

my very rough prediction. (only based on this chart and is not completely serious, nor well taught true)

http://oi58.tinypic.com/316wymo.jpg

You asked me to make some predictions using technical analysis - which you scoff at. You asked me to make some short term predictions which if true, would prove you wrong with regard to your notions on the efficacy of technical analysis.

Here is exactly what you said immediately above . . .


And here again is my response . . .


I made the TA predictions weak enough to favor proving you wrong, yet strong enough to defy random price movement that you apparently expect.