Bitcoin Forum

I have read a lot recently about the pending collapse of the Dollar.

The amount of currency being printed is insane, the US are shipping their inflation across the globe by printing so much money, and when it comes home to roost, it's going to destroy the Dollar. There will be hyper inflation at worst, but a total lack of confidence in the Dollar and formation of a new world monetary system at best.

Already China are buying up all the gold and there's real credible talk of China linking their currency to Gold. It'll be the only currency in the world backed by anything and there will be a massive rush to get it pushing the value up. It'll be the end of the petro-Dollar as we know now for international trade and world reserve currency.

There's also rumours of gold being professionally debased, bars drilled out and filled with Tungsten metal. If it's the American government doing this, it's exactly the same thing that ended the Greek empire and the Roman empire.

So, either this year or next when the Dollar collapses and the Yuan takes over, what are the credible options for Bitcoin?

In theory the price in dollars should rise in line with the massive inflation, but that will be dependant on people spending their worthless Dollars on Bitcoin, maybe they will, maybe they wont. There will definitely be a rush to dump worthless fiat currency and go for something solid, either gold, a gold backed Yuan, stocks (maybe?), property (again risky?), Bitcoin?

More likely, a lot of people will move to crypto only.

like what happened with cyprus

people will move to crypto and gold/silver/hard assets

paper assets will crash

It's really hard to say. Remember 2008? Stocks were pummelled, but so were precious metals. Cash was king.

If we go into a deflationary spiral, Bitcoin might fall along with everything else. If we end up in a scenario with the dollar falling and gold and silver rising, I can see Bitcoin skyrocketing as well. There's just no telling, especially with all the manipulations going on.

cash don't exist... because when crash comes, all automat will be down in a few hour.
it's like petrol station in france when the factory is offline (syndicat problem).

all people run to the station, drain the "normal citern" and then ... no stock at all even is the people don't take gas every week.

If the fed continues to taper we are heading to a deflation and a collapse in the stocks markets dragging along everything else including bitcoin.
if they finally understand their Keynesian policies are wrong and allow the market to correct itself the dollar may still be saved.
my personal belief is that once the s&p 500 goes -50% 2008-2009 style the fed will start QE4 and continue inflating the dollar away.
if that happens everything including bitcoin will shoot up in price until confidence in the dollar is completely lost and it begins to be dumped along with u.s treasuries, this will create massive inflation and most likely a u.s default on its debt.

this will definitely bring the spotlight on bitcoin and gold.

Interesting...

So you don't think the next round of QE is guaranteed regardless of what happens?

who knows, in the end the fed's open market committee is made of 12 people who can decide to go either way.
no way of knowing if they continue QE or decide to finally do the responsible thing.

Very well observed.

However after the storm was over, gold appreciated to a new high. Had BTC been around at the time, it sure would have done so as well. First deflationary shock, then hyperinflation, is what the critics say.  ;)

Such a crisis is also a wakeup call to many people who then look for alternatives.

I am planning on having some metal, some bitcoin, and some cash.  At least then I won't lose it all.

I hope after all of this much more people will move to cryptocurrencies only.

That is correct. The US economy is today little more than a house of cards protected by a whole lotta firepower.

I shudder to think how the US government will behave when backed into the corner of debt-repayment by China et all...

It will be up to every US citizen to curtail their government and prevent total annihilation.

Related: Dead Dollar Walking (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dQdmsL147j0) - Stephan Molyneux

It would have been nice if it happens so. But I don't think that any such incident will benefit the Bitcoin. If the USD collapse, people are likely to shift their investments to risk-free assets such as bullion and real estate. Bitcoin is currently being considered as a high risk investment.

Bitcoin after the collapse of the Dollar
96.8% of current internet users will not be able to afford to pay monthly internet access fees.
Mining will be much easier.  :o

Seriously, buying food could be a concern for many middle-class people.
I would expect BTC to be worth at least 5x the current all time high. (~$6,000+/btc)

$6,000 assumes a very small market-cap for a form of money that is about to take over the world...

Gold will go up because of its history as currency and store of wealth and the fact that most people don't understand Bitcoin and think that "if you can't touch it you don't own it",  while other realize that btc can do all that gold can do and do it better mostly (and a lot more). Both up a lot but maybe btc more because gold is already quite expensive.

like many ... you can buy nothing with gold and silver "metal" if you don't have a middle man (bank or notary).
but with independant and valuable network (that it works with no middle man), you can buy anything with stable price !

Xapo forecasts that each BTC will be $500K to $1m in 10 years.  This doesn't even factor in a dollar collapse.  By the time that actually happens we aren't even going to look at the dollar as a form of measurement.

I personally don't think it will ever get that high.  We won't be using BTC exclusively in our future world of crypto.  Ethereum and/or something else will cut into that market-share I'm sure.

No dollar, no bitcoin value, sorry.

Bitcoin would have to be more valued than gold.

People off grid or on will not exchange in something which can be destroyed, hard asset cannot.

That is rubbish. Bitcoin will be having value, regardless whether the USD is around or not. Although most of the exchanges of BTC are conducted in USD, don't forget that a significant part is also done using the Euro, Russian Rouble and the UK Pound.

"Ye gods lad, you're saying a barrel of this 'oil' of yours will one day be more valuable than a horse?! MADNESS! Madness I say!"

https://medium.com/what-i-learned-today/1a812f8fa7cd

IMHO, China yuan is supported by nothing but CP's gun. Many chinese predict china yuan will collapse in the near future, and a number of them exchange their CNY for USD. The following link is a post from a chinese bbs which can support my point of view. The OP exchanged his asset for  $2 million!

http://bbs.tianya.cn/post-develop-1575919-1.shtml (http://bbs.tianya.cn/post-develop-1575919-1.shtml)

Dollar and Rouble had rather bad year, especially after big intervention into Rouble.

Bitcoin is simply better then normal currency because of transactions. It won't be collapse of dollar, it will be ignorance of dollar existence.

Ruble had a very bad year, but the Russian government don't care about it. Actually it is beneficial for them, as they are mostly an exporting nation. On the other hand, USD is doing good so far this year.

Nah. dollar will strengthen this year.

move to crypto is only a matter of time.

The U.S. dollar has been the world currency for something over 3 decades. Because of greed among bankers and investors, and because of lack of Federal Reserve Bank foresight and controls, the dollar is collapsing as the world currency. The only thing that is holding the dollar up currently is the faith that if you go to the store, you can buy something with it. Since other countries (China) are constantly watching the dollar - because it is somewhat of a barrier that keeps their own currency from excelling - they see the mismanagement that is going on. They are pulling out of the dollar. Already Russia, Germany and China, along with various countries in Africa and the Middle east, are starting to trade oil for gold rather than the dollar.

What is your USD paycheck worth in the scheme of things? If you earn $1,000 a week, what is that compared to the formal U.S. debt of $17 trillion? And when you consider that the little bit of USD that you have is worth even less when compared with the informal U.S. debt (which is probably around $200 trillion), why would you have faith in the USD? It is only the trust and hope of the people and the foreign nations that is keeping the USD from collapsing into hyper-inflation. Expect this to happen - hyper-inflation - in 3 or 4 month. It's starting already in the grocery store.

Bitcoin just might be the savior for the American people. And those who are in now will be the wealthy of the future.

:)

Do you have any facts to strengthen your argument? The US dollar will strengthen if the public debt is reduced. That is not going to happen until Obama is removed from the office.

Crypto will go moon because there is no gold available at that very moment.
Crypto is the easiest method to convert to when bank holidays are comming because you can convert all your dollars online (from your chair) to a crypto.

Wrong, 6 decades.

Dollar strengthening? LAWL

http://www.barchart.com/chart.php?sym=$DXY&t=BAR&size=M&v=0&g=1&p=MO&d=X&qb=1&style=technical&template= (http://www.barchart.com/chart.php?sym=$DXY&t=BAR&size=M&v=0&g=1&p=MO&d=X&qb=1&style=technical&template=)

25 year chart of the index price of USD.

I bet that it will reach a new low within 2 years. Worse than 06-08

Give me all your dollars. It will be worthless so you shouldn't care :)

Don't be a bitch. Follow through and walk the walk :D

conversions has to be done before the bank holidays ..

USD has a lot more going for it than bitcoin.

Pros to USD
USD: untraceable transactions via physically exchanging cash
Bitcoin: traceable, all transactions recorded on blockchain

USD: Keep cash in an FDIC insured bank account and the government is good for the first $100,000, fraud/theft protection
Bitcoin: 15% of all coins currently held in circulation were stolen from their original owners (if you believe the list of bitcoin thefts on this forum)

USD: zero transaction fees for cash or check deposits or withdrawals, or ACH transfers
Bitcoin: transaction fees

USD: treated as cash by the IRS, duh
Bitcoin: treated as a commodity by the IRS, taxed as capital gains

USD: costs you nothing to safely stash it in a FDIC guaranteed bank, and you get paid interest to boot!
Bitcoin: spend lots of your money for security, you're in charge of it yourself

USD: exchange rate is very stable, intrinsic value is its guarantee as a medium of exchange by the U.S. government & use as a medium of exchange by U.S. economy, and the U.S. government and U.S. economy are powerful entities
Bitcoin: exchange rate is extremely unstable, has virtually no intrinsic value at all (compare to money orders)

USD: currency exchanges are stable, reliable, no risk of theft
Bitcoin: exchanges are unstable, unreliable, risk of theft

USD: can keep a bunch of them of varying types in wallet easily as paper medium
Bitcoin: poor/zero implementation as paper medium

USD: inflation rate in the near-term (1-2 years) is very predictable, and long-term inflation is quite low.
Bitcoin: deflation rate as measured by bitcoin's exchange rate is very high, making it unattractive as a currency and instead attractive as a commodity/hedge against the dollar (probably why the IRS pwned bitcoin by treating it as such)

USD: I can make a bunch of cash transactions under $5,000 and it's not recorded anywhere
Bitcoin: I can make a bunch of transactions and every single one of them is viewable by everyone in a global database.  NSA's wet dream, how ironic.

People may or may not agree with your points here. But this one is absolutely wrong. How can anyone trace a BTC10 transaction back to you, unless you publish your wallet ID?  ;D

There is absolutely zero chance that the Chinese government will link their currency to gold. China has been following the policy of driving down the value of their currency in order to promote exports for a long time. Linking their currency to gold would have the opposite effect.

Russia has so much oil, they should be strong during a "Global economic collapse".
The USA also has huge amounts of oil, but our debt is off the charts ridiculous.

True, however, China will never hold the world reserve currency with a Yuan backed only in USD. It has no positive benefit over USD.

China may feel they're at the point they can stand on their own.

Maybe they want to transform from the country with cheap exports driven by low wages and low standards of living, and possibly they want to do what America has done for the last 70 years and export their debt around the globe, drive up living standards and consume more crap.

It seems plausible to me that China would want to hold the world's reserve currency and all the benefits that it will bring. To do this they need a reason for people to want to hold this currency over the USD.

Probably but i wonder after how long? Bitcoin has a big potential but that doesn't mean that we will use only bitcoin. I just wonder what we'll have after 30 years  ::)

When there is weakness in the stock market the USD strengthens (goes up).

Weak economy = Lower interest rates to encourage buying = Stronger USD  

The USD is seen as a "flight to quality." Living close to the international border, I've converted lots of USD:MXN during stock market corrections taking advantage of more buying power in Mexico.

So, if Bitcoin competes with the USD then one can rationalize that BTC should increase with weakness in the stock market and US Economy if it's seen as a "flight to quality."

Bitcoin is truly anonymous, if you know how to use it. NSA can't really do much here.

We'll have a world that is better in some ways (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uk7gKixqVNU), and worse in others (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M2Jxs7lR8ZI).

low interest rates make people borrow more dollars.
every borrowed dollar is a new printed dollar.
printing dollars causes inflation and weakens the dollar.

The biggest scam (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iFDe5kUUyT0) in the history of the world...

Yes, over a long period of time the dollar eventually weakens but I'm talking shorter lengths like a bear market.

During weak economic times like the great recession, the dollar was strong and mighty.  Reason being, other currencies fled to the dollar thus higher demand.

Yes. Partially correct. Both Russia and the US have huge deposits of petroleum. But there is a fundamental difference between the two. Russia is a net exporter of oil (out of the 11.9 million barrels they produce every day, they export some 9 million barrels, either as crude oil or as refined products). On the other hand, the US is a net importer of oil (they produce around 10 million barrels every day, but also imports another 14 million barrels, especially from Mexico and the OPEC).

I love this thread, and we should all endeavor to keep it on page 1

waiting for the day dollar falls... :'(