Bitcoin Forum

Everybody here waits for a capitulation. Are we deep enough in despair or we need more FUD?   ???
Because we assume that the growth cannot start without capitulation.

This may be right for stock/forex trading, but bitcoin is different (c).

Forex is a closed system: the number of players is (more-less) permanent.
Bitcoin is an open system: the number of players grows exponentially.

So in forex for growth to happen we need change of sentiment of existing players. Hence the need of capitulation.
While in bitcoin growth happens not because of old players, but because of new players with new money.
 
Ergo - stop looking for signs of capitulation. Look for signs of fresh money.

Ive been looking for signs of fresh money for months. Haven't seen any. Still don't see any. Either another country needs to come along and do a little of what China did, or the U.S. and U.K. and/or other European power countries need to get exchanges open and attract institutional money. I mean, the average Joe isn't going to go through the trouble of trying to buy bitcoin on an exchange. Its becoming harder and harder to do between compliance and restrictions and exchange closures. Even many of the old traders dont like the idea of keeping much on the exchanges.

So, I dont think enough ATMs can open in the next couple of months to create a bull market. So I keep asking and noone keeps answering - "Where is the fresh fiat coming from next and when?"

Psychologically it might be important.

The key is real depression, coming from the fact that there are no more "excuses" for the downtrend: China, Gox, etc.

Whether necessary or not, we have not yet felt this type of depression.

Yes, we really need capitulation. But the *capitulation* will be finished only when YOU capitulate.