Bitcoin Forum

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G8Zuj8xYUpY

It goes on and on, so you can skip to the right part, but the big picture message is, Don't expect $5000 for another 3-4 years, and be prepared for the price to possibly go way down in the intermediate term.

(Note that he does expect a low soon in the short term.)

Do any of the e-wavers have any feedback on this?

CRypto does not do TA sop well as there

a) Not enough history
b) Not enough liquidity/volume
c) Is fundamentally driven market
d) Is a movement more than a commoditity

But hey you may be right ..but i doubt it  8)

To clarify, that's not me making the analysis, but rather, someone else.

woah video is 3 hours long

I think it's DanV.

I completely agree that that is a possible outcome. I do however, think it is too early to try to project something like that out, yet.

I find that lots of people doing TA in BTC often fails because of several things:

1) Failure to take into account exponential user adoption in an otherwise uncapitalized market.
2) Failure to take into account unforeseen news, for better or worse.
3) Failure to take into account foreseen news, such as new exchanges opening, and capital investment pouring in.
4) Failure to take into account unforeseen BTC development timelines, such as sidechains.
5) Ultimately not being able to see the forest for the trees.

The "rules" that Dan keeps bringing up doesn't work in the face of sudden developing news. Will we be talking about "corrections", "a, b, and c" when Second Market opens to the greater public? I think not. Will we be talking about "regression" and "downtrend" when sidechains crushes the altcoin market? No!

These guys doing TA in BTC assumes that they are still in a stock market when really, BTC is a stock, a currency, and an emerging technology that is the internet of money. The Elliott Wave analysis works only on a micro timescale, when it comes to macro timescale, these guys can't see the forest for trees!

$5000 isn't much. Think about it. All it takes is a $50 billion market cap and we know that's just 1/10th of Apple. You're going to tell me that BTC as a global currency can't even be a fraction of Apple? The guy doing the TA is too busy with his "A, B, and C" rules to see the emergent bigger picture: BTC doesn't play by the convention stock rules.

Not seeing $5000 for 3-4 years? Sure, if we assume that the bitcoin technology stays the same, the userbase stays the same, and capital not pouring in. There will be no Second Market, no Winklevoss ETF, no US exchanges opening, no sidechain, and on and on.

bullish EW analysis  ;)

https://www.tradingview.com/v/TD36eFyF

1) It's only Exponential during rises. This doesn't mean the user base is not expanding, just that it isn't likely that it's exponential right now. Proof would be gladly accepted.
2) Irrelevant! The effect news will have is dependent on the way it is perceived. News is perceived differently in rises than declines.
3-a?) New exchanges are only a short term bump in the overall picture. And "All this new money pouring in..." you guys sound like the Litecoiners when Gox was supposedly going to add LTC to the exchange. Again, it was a short term bump and then leveled off.
3-b?) I don't know what these "sidechains" are, but anyone can read about the development going on in the BTC world if you just look.
4) ...

Depends on how far you want to go back before you start counting. Everything going on right now in Bitcoin tells me this 'bullish analysis' is nothing more than wishful thinking. Just be sure that you don't place so much faith in it that you are willing to bet the house on it......or even more than a few shillings for that matter.

the short of it is... be prepared for a significant buy opportunity going into summer

The argument against the idea that Second Market's ETF/exchange is that it's priced in by early adopters.  One could imagine the Second Market exchange opening with a ton of fanfare with a lot of newcomers rushing to buy Bitcoin, but the price not making new highs because the early adopters will sell to these newbies.  I'm not saying this WILL happen, but rather, it's a possibility to account for.

The altcoin market is tiny: Litecoin has 1/10 of the market cap as Bitcoin.  The next biggest market cap is 1/10 of Litecoin.  In other words, you can approximate the entire alt-coin market cap as 1/10 of Bitcoin's.  If you're being charitable, it might be more like 1/5.  Either way, that's a max 20% gain if Bitcoin takes over the entire alt-coin market cap.

Having said that I do believe one bullish argument you noted: $6 billion is not enough of a market cap on which to run the world's financial system.  That's why I keep holding my position.

Just to make a point as we have been around for a while ;)

3-b ...Gox statement caused a expo rise from 5 cents to $2-4  ... so i dont know how you would caputure that on an elliot wave

1) I agree with you that the userbase growth is not expanding exponentially right during correction, but it does on a yearly timescale.

2) News is relevant to BTC at this point. Not just the bad news like we've been seeing lately, but the news that pushes BTC in a positive direction as well, think Cyprus.

3) In reference to the analysis in OP's posted video, he just looks at patterns, never taking into account tech development or VC capital flowing into BTC. It will have consequences.

4) There are many people who think how much bitcoin is worth is based on their individual sentiment, rather than looking at the bigger picture and seeing what it actually is worth in the market. An example from March 2013:

I started counting from 1200. can wee all agree that was the beginning of the correction? I hope so.

Why are people still questioning this? The price goes up in huge jumps. Minor changes between those jumps are meaningless in the bigger picture. For permabears to be taken seriously they would first have to explain why "this time it's different" without appearing to be blatantly trolling. And they can't do that.

lol Yep! At that time, it was worth between $5-9.99. Now it may be worth a little more, perhaps $25-50, or maybe $10-35... This is not my own sentiment. This is based on actual use and not the speculative demand.
As a side note; The mining difficulty is based on speculative demand too. I don't care what a miner thinks he deserves for a Bitcoin because he decided to start mining late. If the price hadn't risen (from speculative demand) then there wouldn't be so many miners pumping the difficulty up, and in turn, these prices would not be expected for a mined coin. It's a vicious cycle, but the fundamentals simply do not support this price. Get rich quick boys do.

It has always been worth at least 6 digits. Most of the world is just slow to catch on.

How do you separate actual use from the speculative demand? I'd like to see data backing that it's not just your own sentiment.

I can claim that one BTC is worth a million, and would be as valid as your opinion of $25, but in the end, the price is dictated by the market, clear and simple. It's currently $429.

just listened to the very end and him talking about whales buying as "people crying get me out"

You assume that Bitcoin has zero use as a store of value. A price of 50 dollars/BTC, total market cap 600 million dollars, assumes that one million users have a demand of only 600 dollars worth of Bitcoin per person. Anyone who believes that is totally disconnected from reality.

Well, sure! To someone who bought at 4 digits, there would be a bit of bias there.


Fair enough!
I'll try to compile my lists of data and post it up


That isn't how market capitalization works, besides, when there are indeed 1M users then maybe it'll be worth more.
Bitcoin is a terrible store of value except when it's rising. If you were one of the unlucky saps that bought at $1200 where would you be now? You either sold in which case you aren't storing anything, or you are down 60%. I just don't see how that is a good store of value.

Oh maybe you meant a good store of value for those who got in earlier than most???

And there we go with the blatant trolling. Explain why it's different this time.

It is not a stable store of value over a short period time, but it is the only asset that has certain invaluable properties which anyone who has taken the time to try and understand Bitcoin well understands.

I'm not necessarily saying it's different this time. But you can't exactly say with any amount of certainty that it'll keep going up indefinitely. Just because Bitcoin has always stayed above the previous ATH doesn't mean that it always will. It is still a new technology and has a very real chance of failing in the future. It is code. No code is perfect nor unbreakable.

The point is, yes I'm trolling! But only because you (the permabull, not YOU specifically) think that any argument you don't agree with is just trolling, when in fact both sides are just stating their respective opinions. Since you nor anyone else on this forum knows FOR SURE what the future holds for Bitcoin, I don't think it's fair that you guys say without doubt, that Bitcoin is too big to fail and will make millionaires out of all who share your belief.

If everyone is making money, then no one is making money! ;)

No one can truly say that with 100 percent certainty that Bitcoin will succeed, but based on what it has already achieved, the challenges it has overcome, the fundamentals, and the current trends, I would estimate that chance of success (in this case defined only as price greater than 10,000 dollars) is no less than 90 percent. What do you think?

Nobody has said it will keep going up forever. A common straw man. Leave that shit at the door.

There are two scenarios. Either it gets adopted worldwide which will require the price to go up, or it does not which will result in a near zero value. A scenario where it just stays where it is forever is simply not realistic. Only question is the timeline and final price.

6 digits is a conservative estimate for worldwide adoption. This is not a guess or hopeful dreams, it is math. Elementary math at that. There is nothing to argue about here.

the first hour investors were driven buying bitcoin as the paradigm was setup that bitcoins was a currency. the same with the internet when everyone was investing in internet commerce at the beginning. bitcoin 2.0 says that the technology for the consumermarket interesting, therefor the focus on the idea of a individual side blockchain for every business.

the resumme could be that there is less investment made in the sideeffect of the blockchain, the coins given out for creating the blockchain as in it it itselve.

we are still inside the bubble, because of the nature of slow development of technology and market. the question is just if its going to burst or not. I think in 2015/2016 we are out of it, short term is difficult.

I think big money is waiting come in.  Question is what will btc have to fall to before they will start buying?

Worldwide acceptance is extremely unlikely. You're counting your chickens before your eggs hatch.

I don't get why it MUST be binary. Why is there no middle ground?

If worldwide adoption occurs, then I agree that 6 digits is a safe bet. But then I ask, why should Bitcoin be valued at it's maximum potential right now, when it has not yet reached it's maximum potential? The true value should rise with real use and not just speculative demand, but that real use is, compared to trade volume, minuscule at the moment.

It's too useful to remain some obscure nerd-token. Just like email and looking up cooking recipes on the internet. People are slow to adopt, but they will eventually simply for their own selfish benefit. Same as any other technology.

The True Value, as meaningless as that term is, is whatever its ultimate potential is. Which is much higher than here.

And just to clarify, by worldwide adoption I don't mean that 100% of the economy happens in bitcoin. Just that it is known to everyone and that however many people have a reason to use it, use it (whether they know it or not at the present time of writing). My (conservative, as always) estimate for that is that 10% of the world population commonly use it. Could likely go much higher, but no reason to be overly bullish.

It could happen at any moment. When we say "big money" what are we talking about? If I were "big money" and I really wanted to get into Bitcoin, I would be worried not so much about whether or not the price goes down more, I be worried about other "big money" getting in before me. Suppose "big money" means a person (or entity) who becomes a true believer in Bitcoin wants to invest 100 million dollars in it. There are thousands of people who could potentially do this. If a total of 100 million dollars enters the Bitcoin market in a short period of time, the price will rise well past 10,000 dollars. Now suppose big money person A comes to believe that big money person B has the same intention. It would be wise for person A to begin buying immediately at price 500 before person B starts buying, rather than wait for the price to maybe fall to 400 and risk person B buying before you. If person B buys before person A, person A will have to buy at 10,000. For a big money person who has decided that Bitcoin is a good investment, the risk of losing the race to another big money person is much greater than buying too soon, before the absolute bottom.

I am sure that big money people are already acquiring Bitcoin, but they are doing it off-exchange as much as possible and on-exchange in smaller amounts, but the time is fast approaching when this big money acquisition will no longer be unnoticed, and a stampede will occur.

You can't really compare btc with email. People weren't really slow in adopting email, and there's not really much risk using email for the average person. Investing in btc on the other hand, is quite risky.

Bitcoin Is starting to remind me of Gold's and Silver's demise, very similar scenario as the price kept going up but never enough causing it to die slowly

big money don't just buy worthless coins shooting up the price.  big money knows that actual innovation needs to happen to draw in more users.  therefor you already see investments by big money not mainly in the token itself but for providing services to use the token.

that being said it means that tomorrow big money can decide that coinbase stops using bitcoin and starts using litecoin (long shot hypothetical of course) or both or whatever, and their business makes "money" no matter which crypto wins.

it is entirely possible that something comes along that is bitcoin like but has a better network distribution model (see dogecoin rise), in fact it is almost a certainty as one looks at the history of innovations from the printing press, to data transmission, to automobiles and so on.

Bitcoin already is "actual" innovation, the most significant financial innovation in decades. It already is drawing in more users daily and it is obviously not worthless.

The people who are investing in Bitcoin services have completely different goals from big money people who would want to own Bitcoin itself. Being an owner of Coinbase or Bitpay would not allow someone to securely store or instantly transfer 100 million dollars of value anywhere in the world.

The only part of your argument that is not a complete failure is the possibility that a better version of Bitcoin will come along, although your choice of Dogecoin as an example was poor. I admit that is a possibility, but it is more than likely that Bitcoin will adopt any significant improvements (because it is open source and incredibly smart people are working on it) in order to stay on top.

Big money is buying all those "worthless" coins off-exchange as to not alert panic-buyers. Second Market is the primest of examples. Right now, as the price plunges, there is a re-ordering of of BTC distribution and it's going to separate the speculators from the true believers.

Notice that as BTC takes a hit, all the other altcoins takes an even bigger hit. This is a sign that most of the other altcoins in their current state is used to speculate bitcoin, and therefore at its mercy.

A big part of any coin is the security (backed up by hashrate) and network effect. Nothing even comes close to rivaling Bitcoin, at $2000 or $200.

I feel a lot of regret when I realize that I could have doubled my coins by selling high and buying low during this downtrend, but then I remind myself that as I continue to buy more coins each month, I am still moving up the BTC distribution ranking, while most of the people who are selling now will come out of this phase with fewer coins.

Ibian! Hoping and praying since $820!



Question is, how low will they make it fall before they start buying?

DanV: Former Qualified Financial Adviser. Part-Time Forex, Equities & Option Trader and Mentor.

https://s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/z/zlhNayqU_big.png

https://www.tradingview.com/u/DanV/

"This pattern could have a final leg down, which would very likely induce overwhelming emotions of despair as it sinks to the ~$200 level.

Again, the $200 zone is AB=CD measured move target and another Fib confluence. As you all know, I am relatively cautious and, hence, $200 would be good enough for me. However, EW guidelines suggest that upon completion of a bullish cycle, the retracement takes us back to the vicinity of wave 4 (at one cycle degree lower). That, in fact, is in the area of $120!

Now, I know this might be very annoying and incomprehensible to Bulls, and others who follow "Fundamentals" very keenly. I cannot say right now which of these targets will be achieved, but it is sufficient to note that, irrespective of if we reverse at $600 (or even $800), we are in a bearish cycle, and a move of the low does not support a new Bullish cycle." -DanV

Another institutional analyst falls victim to the bitcoin badger.
Anyone who listened to DanV, got burnt. Badly.

The guy is not a bad EW analyst, but he is a slave to some trivial rules. if you know EW analysis, he has chosen the most complex interpretation of this chart, it hardly makes sense at all. there is a much simpler explanation to all this, and it's very bullish.

Truth is though, this could be a B wave within a much larger ABC correction (less likely than the beginning of V to 4000), but he labels the top of this to 600? rubbish analysis. The likely top in this situation is more like 800.

Dont take an EW analyst for 100% certain no matter how 'qualified'. EW analysts have very detailed expectations, which means we can enter and exit the market seamlessly and mechanically, however just like everyone else we cannot tell the future for sure.

The real rubbish analysis is actually him even mentioning $200 and $120... just three days ago. The guy has trading experience, but his bitcoin fundamentals is absolute garbage.

He's just one of the dime-dozen institution investors who comes up with these crackpot predictions, only to be fooled by the bitcoin badger. The problem with most institution predictors, is that they're too confident in their analysis, without stopping to think that bitcoin doesn't play by their abc rules... never before has a stock been a currency, a payment system, and a limited commodity at the same time.

Remember that in October 2013, he called for long-term downtrend to $60.

Needless to say, anyone who listened to him then, probably needs to step outside from a 22nd story building.

For everyone who wants a simple analysis:
https://i.imgur.com/mhVvBZy.png

It is clear we are now in a bull market.  The days of $400 bitcoin are over

Post of the day.

Another no-bullshit chart:
https://i.imgur.com/7ypaF2T.png

Your chart is wrong because there shouldn't be stars inside of the moon crescent.  ;)

good job OP

2 cult trolls feeling awfully stoopid.

good bump, bumper  ;)

This time it was different. You can't argue with that now and it is probably going to get even more different as Bitcoin has actually overshot DanV's most dire forecasts.

When will this bearish trend over?

The price can temporarily overshoot the resistance / support levels in TA and the forecast can still be considered accurate as long as the price quickly comes back to the resistance / support level.  Imo, the temporary low of $150 doesn't invalidate the ~$200 support level.