Bitcoin Forum

Just a reminder that we are entering the 2-year downtrend now. Remember: financial decisions based on nothing but emotions are not good decisions. How will you feel when your 648 coins will worth about $1296?

$2 per coin. Really? Even I am not that bearish. I don't think it could possibly go below $140 unless there was a total failure of some sort. I got this number by connecting the support trendline from 2011-2012, and I'm not saying that it will even necessarily go there.

Could happen if FinCEN bans BTC

Basing on my calculations, the fair price of 1 BTC is ~$0.13 now and it grows ~$0.015 (10%) per month.
Everything above it is a bubble.

qft

A currency that wasn't supposed to exist, get banned by World Financial Institutions? Oh wow...

Based on my calculations - (M3/FED_Gold), the fair price of $1 is ~0.5 Milligrams of Gold and it falls about 1% per month. And thats only if the FED actually has any Gold. Everything above is a bubble.

You know what you and me have in common? Nobody cares about our calculations  :P

No problem, man. My goal is just to warn you.  ;)

Its not a currency :) - according to said financial institutions.  How do you ban code?

Appreciated. The thing with your calculation is this: According to YOUR formula, the fair value of Bitcoin will be ~$400 in 6 years, or ~$1,200 in 7 years. Markets tend to price in future expectations. Thus we can say that the current price of Bitcoin is fair already.

I think the one who's emotional is you. You cannot fight the law of the universe which is mathematics and it is mathematically impossible what you opening up a whole new thread just to say. Let me guess...missed the boat? bought a falling knife? lost your coins on exchanges? hmm?

Basing on my calculations, the IQ of the average bitcointalk forum member is ~70 now and it's decreasing by 1% per month. Everything in their brains is a bubble.

What
the
fu*k
does
this
have
to
do
with
me
selling
my
house?

HAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

One more clown.......

my goodness, but you guys really have time to waste here?

Bitcoin is not a currency. Don't waste time to calculate.

LOL

I'll see you at 5.000$. After bailouts and cold wars.

Cheers.

Some dude on bitcointalk sold his parents' house for BTC. He's currently significantly underwater.

USA banning Bitcoin would be the best thing that could happen. It would prove Obama is from Kenya.  ;D

FinCEN is not China.  They don't change their mind back and forth every day like the Chinese do.

The PBOC has never flipped flopped on their December notice. It was clear from the beginning that banks could not deal with Chinese bitcoin businesses. Chinese exchange owners are the cause for the uncertainty.

Yep.

The grade A clown done it when Bitcoin was still in $600 range if I remember correctly. He is in for a whole lot more pain as well as this market is still in a continual deflationary spiral, relying on manipulated short squeezes to provide for the fleeting (yet voracious) rallys that intersperse the downwards grinding.

....wonder if we have had any Bitcoin suicides yet?

We have probably had at least Gox suicides already. But it's only the beginning.

Well, at least you have goals...

LOL at all the schadenfreude. Some of you need to look in the mirror.

I don't understand how we are in a 2nd year downtrend. From my understanding of the market, there has only been a downtrend for a few months. Prior to this year, it was mostly uptrend.

Wow, I'd love to see your calculations.  Here's mine:

http://www.cryptocoinstats.com/priceforecaster.php

We are clearly not in a bubble.  Unless something drastic happens right now it's buy time.

Please do not feed the DonkeyTroll that started this topic..    Its bad for his teeth... 

Is anyone on this forum a bull anymore? I can only think of a couple, such as risto.

I think the final warnings are finally getting through. All you can do is warn the people so many times, after that, it's up to them to take action.

Pathetic indeed.

So I should sell? Sell now? You telling me I won't be rich by HODLING? No wai.

Idiots like you said the same thing about people that blew their life savings on the $255 bubble. They win. You lost. Don't be such a crybaby.

+1

hahahahahahahah    Exactly..


And thus the REAL Reason as to why all these DonekyTrolls keep posting this stuff over and over and over.




I did not get rich last Nov.. But I did make some prety good $$$$$$$     ;D :o ;D :D :-* :-* :-* :-*..

Even with that low valuation, but 10% growth per month, means that the value more than triples every year. So in 10 years, thanks to the magic of compound numbers, that $0.13 will be $12052.17

Value in ten years = $0.13 * (1.1^120)

Oh, and in 20 years, a bitcoin will break the billion dollar mark, at least by your formula.

It's in 10 years, not the next 2 years.
If you have balls to hold for 10 years and look at how your btc worth goes to nothing during this period before recovering, no problem.

Honestly, I bet we have had Bitcoin suicides, and it is a sad thing.  It is just like gambling when the price is so volatile.

Using continuous compound interest I get $21,158.12 in ten years.

In 20 years we'll already break this trend and probably stabilize.

But nevermind. I'm just trolling. I really don't know wtf will be going on with the price.

http://fc06.deviantart.net/fs70/i/2012/088/3/5/troll_face_journal_by_rusembell-d4ud2wq.png

Bitcoin has close to $0 intrinsic value per coin and is functionally a money order. Who would be stupid enough to stake their retirement on it?

I guess you have not been exposed to used-bitcoin salesmen, a trade worse than used-car salesmen in these times.

Bitcoin is worth what people are willing to pay for it where heck did you come up with this anyway. Saying there's a downtrend just doesn't cut it as due diligence. Show me some data to back up what you say and I'll at least give you some credit. So many people just start posts saying what BTC will do but never back up what they say.

Believe what you want, but all the SMART money is now buying up these cheap coins. One year from now, after another ATH and the inevitable downturn thereafter, you'll be writing the same FUD, while the bulls will be relaxing on their yachts in the Mediterranean. 

Really ... i think you need some pills for the issuesyou have got going on there  :'(

Yes someone is accumulating right now.  No there is not going to be an ATH this next year. We escaped from that type of trend a couple months ago. There may a large rally into the existing trading range, almost to ATH, but not a new ATH till the year after that.

It is interesting how everyone on this forum can see the future so confidently (and yet so differently!).

What is annoying is pretty much every person on this forum is a bitcoin bull, yet we have to wade through awful FUD from wallies like 'fr33d0miz3r' who are plainly bulls badly disguised as bears (because they are trying to lose their shirts short selling or have sold with the aim of rebuying in lower, which works until oops!).

I will continue to trickle accumulate a few each month as always.

You're very welcome to share the arguments/TAs supporting those claims. I'm genuinely interested.

Quoted for future reference. Let's revisit this at the end of 2014. lol ;D ;D ;D

Weekly chart features RSI divergence, negative EMA cross, and imminent  journey underneath the ichimoku cloud. None of these things have happened since 2011. Also, EW traders have used EW to show that the trend is over. Now look at a chart on any timeframe and look at the ugly arrangements of candles, specifically the downwards spikes which have immediate follow through spikes that go even lower but on lower volume - do these appear like charts that occur during a bull market? I have never seen anything like this, even in april 2013.  I think there is a long journey ahead of us to get out of and then recover from this type of bear market. Last time there was a recovery from a downtrend on such large timescales, it took 2 bull runs just to recover back within the range to get to ATH. Then finally the 3rd bull run broke ATH.

In order to enter the Ichimoku cloud you must first cleanse yourself, fast for three days and nights under an ancient tree while praying to the Great Bison and only then will you be worthy.

Did it ever occur to you that this market is small enough for experienced big money to manipulate it in such a way as to frighten the pants off techies like yourself? None of it matters. The price will go up as long as adoption increases. You can't break elementary math.

Sorry I just read the charts and not the fairy tales of what the 'big money' might be plotting. 'big money' can exist on both sides of the book. I have a choice of either engaging in this game of guessing like you are or I can use this form of science that traders have been using to trade profitably for decades.

In this thread:

• People with years of experience with markets and generally very knowledgeable about finance topics, trying to apply their skills and experience to a thing which is unlike any before it, and,
• People who have no idea what they're are doing - trying to pull money out of thin air - and usually end up making bad decisions

_{I will leave it up to you to work out which category I fall into.}

I am not guessing. Supply and demand is 100% of the economic law with bitcoin. Everything else, the pumps and dumps, whatever else is going on, is just mind games. It has no direct bearing on the technology. And please don't embarrass yourself by calling ta science. It's hard to watch.

Its depressing watching bitcoin fiat value fall, in the end I guess we still trust old fiat more than crypto... :-\

define "we", because we don't. it is depressing in a sense that "I could have bought more things just three months ago with my coins", sure, but it is much more of a relief of "oh great I can transfer fiat into real money cheaply now", because once you get the feeling that you are in control of your money, it stays with you forever.

The guessing I was referring to is that you are guessing that someone is in some plot behind the scenes to manipulate the charts in a certain way while taking a certain position and it goes completely undetected by TA. I agree that supply and demand affects bitcoin price, and TA is execellent at interpreting this.

i dont think it could go much below 250 at this poiint. i think it has shown stability to be able to hold its price up now and i think we are going into that long bear barket we have seen before. months from now we will see a bull and price will sky rocket ooncce again

Meanwhile you are guessing that it is entirely organic. I merely mentioned a possibility. None of us know. Difference is that I don't care because it doesn't matter in the long run.

I think summer will heat the bitcoin and It'll start growing.

You forgot the third category: people who are more concerned with Bitcoin as a disruptive technology than as a vehicle for speculative gambling.

My most loved Bitcoin question, how was it 1-2 years ago? When BTC was $1-30??? Was it the same? Were people selling their houses/cars/whatever to buy Bitcoins? If not, then these are bad signs at the moment I think!?

Thanks for the warning but I think you may be panicking a little.  The price was up and it is still up in my opinion.