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Title: Collection and comparison of difficulty prediction Post by: fairlay on May 02, 2014, 02:45:40 AM
Market based (short term):
Market based (long term):
Blogs/ Forum:
Would be happy to complete this collection.[/list] Title: Re: Collection and comparison of difficulty prediction Post by: odolvlobo on May 06, 2014, 05:19:32 AM market-based long term: https://www.havelockinvestments.com/fund.php?symbol=B.MINE
Title: Re: Collection and comparison of difficulty prediction Post by: kickbit on May 06, 2014, 08:47:31 AM Hey,
http://mining-profit.com/bitcoin-difficulty-history I'm improving it's functionality. And it has good accuracy of estimation. Title: Re: Collection and comparison of difficulty prediction Post by: fairlay on May 06, 2014, 03:19:24 PM Thanks for the two additions.
kickbit: Can you explain how you came up with your prediction? Title: Re: Collection and comparison of difficulty prediction Post by: tuneman1980 on May 06, 2014, 03:21:52 PM Take a look at http://www.cryptocoinstats.com/difficultytracker.php
Title: Re: Collection and comparison of difficulty prediction Post by: kickbit on May 06, 2014, 03:47:03 PM Thanks for the two additions. kickbit: Can you explain how you came up with your prediction? Yes, it described here: http://mining-profit.com/faq Q: How does the tool calculate the growth of difficulty, exchange rate and other values? A: The calculation of all the values, which have to be forecasted, is based on historical data using statisctical methods and regression analysis. It depends on growth dynamics. Title: Re: Collection and comparison of difficulty prediction Post by: fairlay on May 06, 2014, 07:36:40 PM Take a look at http://www.cryptocoinstats.com/difficultytracker.php Nice site - but I can not find a prediction? Title: Re: Collection and comparison of difficulty prediction Post by: fairlay on May 07, 2014, 04:32:49 PM We started a prediction on the next difficulty:
https://www.fairlay.com/bet/registered/new/next-difficulty-8-9b/ Maybe we will create some "show accounts" for each site that will predict on fairlay according to the prediction of the site. Would be interesting what site would make the most profit. Title: Re: Collection and comparison of difficulty prediction Post by: fairlay on May 08, 2014, 02:44:36 PM @kickbit
interesting, while all other predictions has gone down (more or less) yours is going up. Could you explain why? I am excited to see the outcome. Title: Re: Collection and comparison of difficulty prediction Post by: fairlay on May 09, 2014, 02:56:22 PM I wonder how http://bitcoindifficulty.com/ comes up with there number.
The way cryptanalys.is seems to me like a very conservative estimate because it did not expect growth thus I wonder why the prediction of http://bitcoindifficulty.com is even below. Title: Re: Collection and comparison of difficulty prediction Post by: fairlay on May 13, 2014, 06:30:32 PM Ok - finally the outcome is: 8,853,416,309 and the winner from this round is clearly bitcoinwisdom.com
Title: Re: Collection and comparison of difficulty prediction Post by: fairlay on May 19, 2014, 06:52:52 PM I guess it is a good time to start to discuss the reliabilities of the predictions:
Someone just placed a prediction of 100mBTC on: next difficulty NOT > 10B on our site http://www.fairlay.com According to the current data this is very unlikely to happen. I wonder if anyone is willing to take the other side. The drawback: you have to spend 20mBTC to win one 1mBTC: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/next-difficulty-10b/ https://i.imgur.com/ahSwVmp.png (http://imgur.com/ahSwVmp) Title: Re: Collection and comparison of difficulty prediction Post by: fairlay on September 06, 2014, 08:29:29 PM We recently have a lot of activity on our regular "next difficulty prediction"
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/next-difficulty-31b/ bet against difficulty >31B at odds of 3.5. Note that from the current difficulty data odds should be more like 2. (50%/50%). Some sources that predict the difficulty and their current prediction: https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty: 31,109,256,240 https://cryptanalys.is/difficulty/bitcoin_btc.php: 29,611,949,922 http://www.vnbitcoin.org/bitcoincalculator.php: 29,804,000,000 http://mining-profit.com/bitcoin-difficulty-history: 30171493992 Thus all sites (in exception of bitcoinwisdom) predict a difficulty of <31B that would bring you 3.5 times your money back. |
