Bitcoin Forum

That this long-ass wait for a price change is normal.   Im getting frustrated.  A little disillusioned.  I mean surely adoption must be increasing around the world.  Yet the price goes nowhere.

I try to remember - from June until November of last year, the price was completely stagnant.

That was a full 6 months. 

Still, somehow this year it seems like a much, much, much longer wait.  And its only been 5 months (Jan - May).

Why is it so much harder to be patient this time?   

-B-

I think it depends on how many times you've been part of the cycle.

For many people, the first bear market they experience seems like it could really be the end of Bitcoin. So, they sort-of-are-sort-of-aren't expecting the price to go up ever (or are not sure). For us veterans, we're basically completely sure the price will go up... and now we're just impatient :)

Bring on NOVEMBER :D

I wish I was a BEAR (pun intended ) and i could goto sleep until them ..lolz

I simply think there is no conceivable way whatsoever that Bitcoin could have already reached the highest value it will ever go.  Before the vast majority of people had even heard of it?  Before any companies were even accepting it?  Before all the VC money started coming in?  Before a movie at the Tribeca Film Festival?  Before Bitcoin ATMs?  Before the ETF's launch?  Before institutional investors entering the market?  Etc etc etc.  It would completely go against logic to be under the impression that Bitcoin would have already reached it's most valuable point ever...before any of this happened.  There is simply no way!  Just stay patient.

Don't wish your life away.

Or we are buying like crazy on every panic sale ;)

Why are we waiting for November?

I mean there's no guarantee that history will repeat itself, but the last "wait" was about 6 months.  We're at 5 months now.  So if history does repeat itself, we're looking at some changes coming in June-ish.

-B-

July may have some joy...but November will be rocketship city :D

For some of us this run will be the most life-changing one so far.  Perhaps that is why it seems so long. ;)

I think that we have to consider Gox and China for slowing things down a bit.  Also, there are still some "manipulators" out there doing what they can to keep the price low for various reasons.  It seems like there is less obvious manipulation than there was a year ago, but there are still some whales doing what they want to do and it does affect the price.

Also, we seem to be following a very similar pattern to the previous bubbles.  6 months of consolidation is common and should perhaps be expected.  I know that I keep thinking with more adoption the consolodation periods might shorten, and perhaps that will be true at some point, but maybe this is just further proof we are still early in this game.   Early is a good thing!  ;D

"We" are spoiled rotten by last years excitement, when BTC had two massive bull markets the same year.
The May/June 2011 rally took a full 18 months to heat up again; Let's hope we don't have to wait nearly that long.

If we have to wait then so be it.  Self-entitlement is a dangerous mindset.  The next step is selling.

at least its somewhat stabilized from the slow skid from 800.  stability is what leads to more confidence even if its not making large jumps.

The longer we go with these low prices, the more weak hands that bought in at $800+ will sell.

That way the next run up we will not have so many "Finally we are back to where I bought in, time to sell".

let's hope there are not too many hodlers owning in the 800 - 1200 btc range who decided that they will not let it happen again to "fail" to become $ millionaires should it ever go above $ 1000 again.  those are the ones who think through this entire bear market they may have missed their once in a lifetime chance and probably some will indeed sell next time...

[/quote]

"We" are spoiled rotten by last years excitement, when BTC had two massive bull markets the same year.
The May/June 2011 rally took a full 18 months to heat up again; Let's hope we don't have to wait nearly that long.
[/quote]

Some of us who only got involved this year are longing to experience the 'spoilt rotten' feeling  ;)

July may have some joy...but November will be rocketship city :D
[/quote]

Sure hope you're right :)

Cos this time, the price is grinding down. Jul-Oct, the price was grinding up, and then exploded to upside.

Times will go interesting when the majority sees that Bitcoin's price indeed rises in orders of magnitude periodically. What would happen then? Because everyone cannot be right, the pattern must break. Well, there are so many ways for the pattern to break that it's not even worth speculation.

Still,
a) bubbles will get smaller and smaller until the price stabilizes
b) bubbles get bigger and bigger until the price explodes
c) there will suddenly be no more bubbles and value starts flowing slowly out from bitcoin into its better alternatives such as peercoin

Whatever happens, there is a prophecy that men will soon experience great wealth but many of them face the problem of having too little spiritual growth to support the gained riches. Whether that prophecy has something to do with bitcoin or not, remains unknown, but it may easily turn out that way. If I remember correctly, the prophecy had something to do with 2017 when man kind will move to the 5th dimension as a whole.

That seems to me like 21st century Western civilisation in a nutshell.

What is the 5th dimension?

Just googled it - sounds fascinating :)

My psychic dog from the 6th dimension just told me that you are full of it.

Is your dog Herman? The 6th-dimensional planet smasher that Ziltoid tries to summon?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=65gsQucAsfE

But more than a bit crazy!!!!!

Gee sure hope not, but she does come when I call "Herman" and wave a bone - this is mighty ominous indeed! Better spend all my coins on hookers and booze before it's too late.

For the past year, prices have had nothing to do with adoption and everything to do with exchange trading, volume, and speculators. So if the price appears to you to not be following adoption, that is why.

LOL, the price is still moving by 3-5% a day during this "quiet" period. Let's take today as an example, BTC has only moved by 2.8%.

https://i.imgur.com/6ZaDaeF.png

But all other major markets in the world have moved much less. What exactly do you want?


What is your investment timescale? Are you a trader? If you are a trader, then I can imagine it must be quite dull, but look at the daily chart. There are very, very few candles with low range. Most (I would say > 80%) have decent range for trading. So, if you are a trader, you are impatient and you will lose your shirt.

If you're not a trader, but a hodler investor, then you should have patience longer than a few weeks or months. I am investing in bitcoin myself for a long, long time and I don't give two shits about the lack of volatility intraday, or even intra-week. I use an alert App on my Android device to alert me when the price has dropped 10%, so I can buy. I also have alerts at support and resistance levels and don't bother looking at the chart that much. I've got it down to twice a day now...  ;D

Yeah.  I think you're right.  Its more difficult because it is creeping downwards. 

If you look at the last "lull" it was going nearly straight sideways. 

We were doing the 190-220 thing for the entire 6 months.

Holding bitcoin should be thought of as at least a 5-10yr position. We've gotten spoiled by the crazy bulls runs of 2013. Refactor your expectations.

It's an incredible opportunity to be present at the beginning of a ground-breaking new technology/paradigm. Humanity has not had ideal money since before we needed to transact quickly over distance. Now we've solved that 200yr old problem. To have an asymmetric investment opportunity along with that is icing on the cake.

Don't get greedy with your timeframes.

Really good advice.
This is the age of "instant everything", and now we have a chance to calm down and enjoy the ups and downs of a great adventure.

I agree completely.  I've also now seen a few periods of apparent lulls like this one, and they are a great time to make some moves preparing for the next violent period of volatility.

Instant everything sound pretty neat. What next, everyone knowing everything about everything? I think we're heading towards singularity.

I'm actually quite happy with the way it is now. no more crazy swings. slowly but surely increasing in price at a more mature pace. I don't think I'd be comfortable if prices were 500 today, 1000 the next few weeks, then down to 300 in few months.

When considering bitcoin's penetration into general public awareness, there is a stark difference between May 2011 and May 2014. For this reason alone, I think it is logical to assume there will not be an 18 month gap separating the late 2013 bull market from any future bull market.

Any particular reason why? Most of the predictions I've seen are looking at a June +/- 1 month spike, based on the long term logarithmic chart.

It sounds like all of human history.

I totally agree that you shouldn't invest to make a quick buck in a week but instead expect a positive return in 5-10years if you want to make money regularly long term
It is healthy to have corrections and it is natural to have a huge volatility and months where nothing too exciting is coming, there are a lot of work being put in new cool Bitcoin websites and new smart persons learning about Bitcoin everyday


It has been going down for 5months

I think you are in the wrong place. This is the Bitcoin speculation forum. Bitcoin has been on a perpetual nasty downtrend for the whole of 2014 which shows no signs of abating. I really like the sounds of the asset which you are talking about though. Tell me more about this asset which is slowly but surely increasing in price at a more mature pace? I could do with getting some money into such an asset.

Haha

is pretty much what is happening; when the price is high it brings a lot of new players in the game, some of them will stay invested even when it goes down and the community has grown that way