Bitcoin Forum

My brother was mining on my laptop bitcoin. I have a nividia 660M geforce gtx grapics card. He solo mined for 1 day and found a block. If I am correct a block is 25 bitcoin, and the market value of bitcoin is about 450.

So did my Brother hit the lottery in bitcoin  :o?

"your brother"

Well, we all know what this requires:

TITS PROOF OR GTFO...

Bits or GTFO

If it's true your brother did hit "the lottery."

Spend some and reinvest the rest!

no he won the lottery a million times in a row...proof or gtfo  ;D

Local bitcoins have been hacked and this is where all the bitcoins are at. The bitcoins are safe and I can't give proof at this time soz but this is 100% true.

hahaha you win lamest excuse ever 

Which block was it? What was the address?

We are asking for proof of the block being mined not if you have 25 bitcoins or not. This requires the block id and proof that "your brother" owns the address they were mined into. Access to LocalBitcoins isn't required to prove that.

i thought localbitcoins had been fixed?

Yeah, and I'm acutally Satoshi and I mined 1 million coins with my CPU. Oh shit, I was meant to stay anonymous...  ::)

Congrats if it is true, but I believe most of us won't believe in your story unless you can provide the block number.

At around 90MH/s, your luck (chances) is about 1 in 4.4 Million.

Not really, you can find the following announcement on http://localbitcoins.blogspot.com/.

Show us the proof. It will be more interesting, but i know it wont happen.

This is why I sometimes is tempted to start my CPU miner for a few hours. I mean, what IF it actually worked…
I would love to see the proof for this though.

If this is true your bother really "hit the lucky lottery ticket", but as It's really rare we want some kind of proof. Otherwise i doubt anyone will believe this.

One of the luckiest people in the world if true

Doubtful story.... It is close to impossible to mine a block of bitcoin through solo mining. And that too mining using a laptop? Something doesn't sounds right. Post the screenshot, we will believe.

Sounds like a bit of a tall story to me, given the current difficulty it's more probable to be run over by a hippo on Times Square
You will have to provide some evidence for this

Nice :)

It is very unlikely and he doesn't provide the block ID or the address with the coins and he just created the profile

very unlikey, if you want to prove yourself than share TXID

will tell this fairy tail my son before going to sleep. will here be a proof or not?

proof? or it never happened.

OP left bitcointalk soon after creating this thread, and haven't come back yet.
Possibility 1: He just came to troll us.
Possibility 2: He and his brother are enjoying their lives with 25 btc now.

still no proof? Smells scammy to me.

"So your telling me there a chance"

Sure, mining a block is basically a guessing game. Might get lucky, chances are slim though. Not sure if the numbers above are correct, but the chance is very low.

I'm getting something more in the range of 600 million to one.... but that's the odds of finding the next block with 90Mh rather than odds of finding a block within a "reasonable" timeframe...

Hmmm yeah, comes out to about 4 Millionish to find a block in a day.

I would say that its either
1) You are trying to troll us
2) Your brother is extremely extremely lucky especially when you stated its a nvidia gpu.

definition of luck...

https://i.imgur.com/FT27y45.jpg

Well it is safe to say the OP is full of shit! It wouldn't be that hard to provide the info to prove it. Then they come up with some lame excuse.

Whats the point of even making a profile to post this crap?  Is the OP that hard up for attention?

Not sure, some elaborate reverse phychology to start a scam

Maybe he is just trolling much.  ;) No need to be so aggressive.

Completely new account, extremely lucky event, no details provided. lol :D

I would rather believe in the possibility of aliens kidnapping our cows and have sex with them to produce future generations of alien cows with 6 ears and 3 legs.

And yet everyone is commenting, me included, we must be interested; I think we wish it was true

I have a spare HD7950, I may as well try :D

TXID, screenshot of miner page or GTFO.

If true(doubtful), I apologize in advance and will start solo mining with all my old PC's and laptops.   8)

Maybe his laptop overheated and the burnt after finding the block lol. :D

Maybe he mined 25 Doge :D

I doubt that. Post some evidence first and I will congratulate 'your brother'. If it is really true of course :)

What are the odds of mining a block at 90MH/s?

How does it compare to the odds of winning the powerball lottery?

(1 in 175 million)

Just trolling!!!  >:( >:( >:( >:( >:(

Someone above said 1 in 4.4 million.

Would love to see a story like this be true ... even more so if it were my story lol

Network hashrate right now is about 60000 TH/s, so the 90 MH/s OP has is just 0.00000015% ... :)

That could explain why OP didn't come online these few days.

Aggressive? LOL! What do people even get out of trolling? I don't get it.  It's hardly funny. Seems like a waste of time to me.

Even somebody has 1 TH/s the OP is 1/60000  :o !!! And the hashrate is rising  :-\

It is but I guess he find it funny

He lost less time that the combined time we lost

yeah, that's it :D

he is lucky, i'm a star

Really?  I would think it to be a lot more... like 1 in 100 million or something.

Guess the brother was just lucky... or this whole topic is just a lie and has no use whatsoever.

I am George Clooney

If thats true, you can provide his btc address, so we can see a balance of 25 btc.

But other then that, thats extremely lucky.

I feel like thats nearly impossible... similar to getting struck by lightening.

Getting stuck by lightening has much much better chance than finding a BTC block solo on a laptop

Congratulations if it's true. GOod luck.

Assuming difficulty stays at current level forever (extremely unlikely), it would take on average 12100 years to get a block with 90MH/s.
No idea how long you need to wait to get a lightning struck lol. :D

The odds of becoming a lightning victim in the U.S. in any one year is 1 in 700,000
The odds of being struck in your lifetime is 1 in 3,000

http://news.nationalgeographic.co.in/news/2004/06/0623_040623_lightningfacts.html

;D

Thanks for the link and fun facts.
I am really surprised to see the odds of being struck in lifetime is a lot higher than I have thought.

So don't roam around wet trees in a forest frequently during rainy season, otherwise your family will have to brute-force your cold wallets in future :D

My congratulations to your brother!My congratulations to your brother! Hitting the block on laptop is very unusual. By the way, if it was your laptop you may divide this by 50% to you and 50% for him! :D :D Just kidding, but once again: my congratulations! You hit jackpot ;)

1 in 4.4 Million sounds indeed wrong. I would like to do a proper calculation to see the chances.
Looks like binomial distribution with a x/2²⁵⁶ chance and MH repetitions per second * time in seconds mining with 1 success, which is easy to calculate if you know X. The problem I have is that X depends on the number of bits that have to be 0 and I dont know how to get them from the difficulty, since the difficulty value is usually given as an integer (e.g. 8,000,872,136)

If this is true, can you ask your brother to give me 1 btc.  :)

You can find the target on blockexplorer.
https://blockexplorer.com/q/hextarget

Thats great! Thanks.

The following contains several errors, see the hint from Flashman and my correction below.

So the current target in hex is 0x0000000000000000896C00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000
which is 1.0001001011011₂×2¹⁹¹ according to wolframalpha (http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=0x0000000000000000896C00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000)

Since the hash has to be lower than the target, the first 256-192* = 64 bits must be 0

So the basic chance to get a valid hash is 2⁶⁴/2²⁵⁶ = 1/2¹⁹² if we consider all hashes the be equal likely and equally distributed.

Next step is to get the number of tries OPs brother (OPB) had with the given hardware and time.


It was posted that this would be 90MH/s


https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Mining_hardware_comparison
Does not list a GTX 660 M, but it lists an overclocked GT650M with 27.4 MHash/s
According to NVidia (http://www.geforce.com/hardware/notebook-gpus/geforce-gtx-660m/specifications) the GTX660M has the same amount of cores as the GT650M and slightly less clock speed, so I think 27.4 MH/s is more likely than 90MH/s. To be honest 27.4 is probably to high, but we will go with that.

So 27.4 MH/s * 24*60*60 = 2,367,360 Hashes total in 24 hours

The rest is basic binomial distribution (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binomial_distribution). So we have an experiment with a 1/2¹⁹² chance of success and repeat that ~ 2.3 million times, while 1 is successfull. Since these numbers are considered small (chance) and large (number of times repeated) we can use a poisson approximation (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poisson_distribution) and dont have to do all the annoying binoms.

L (Lambda) = 1/2¹⁹² * 3,367,360 ~ 3.77*10^-52
k = 1 (1 Block)

Thus the chance for OPB to hash a block with the given hardware and time is:

((3.77*10^-52)¹ * e^-3.77*10-52)/1!
= ((3.77*10^-52) * e^-3.77*10-52)
= approx (http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=3.77*10^%28-52%29+*+e^%28-3.77*10^%28-52%29%29) 3.77 * 10^-52

Thats (if we round a lot) 1 in 10⁵³ or 1 in 100000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000


Not even close


Nope


Winning the powerball lottery is 100 Tredecillion (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Names_of_large_numbers) more likely.

Yeah, I have no comparisson for that either.

Disclaimer, even though I was very carefull with every caluclation and my sources I might have made mistakes.

* Added another bit since its an estimate anyway and target > 1₂*2¹⁹¹

tl;dr math magic reveals OP's brother had a chance of

1 in 10⁵³ or 1 in 100000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000
or 1 in 100 Sexdecillion

Cant argue with that numbername :D

so summary is this thread shouldnt exist because it didnt happen.

Getting 25 bitcoin is quite difficult. If your brother really got that much bitcoin, i have to say that he hit Lottery.

Getting less than 25bitcoins when you solo mine a block is impossible

Did you mean that having 25btc is difficult? You just need 10k$

I think you just "proved" that it's still millions to one against the entire network of 60 petahash or so finding a block... yet it happens 144 times a day...

You've definitely got some bad math or suppositions in there. I think you've done it on a per second basis. To late for math brain functions tonight though.

Hmm yeah now that you mention it, the number is way to big in comparison with the entire network.

Basic chance would be 1/2⁶⁴ not 1/1¹⁹² (approx 5.42*10^-20) because you have to get the 64 bits correct and the others can be anything.
Also the 2,367,360 would be MHash/day, so 2,482,356,879,360 repetitions.
Thus lambda is approx 1.35*10^-7

board breaks the wolframalpha links (http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=1.35*10^%28-7%29*e^%28-1.35*10^-7%29)

1.35 in 10,000,000 or 1 in 7,407,407 which is pretty close to mufa's guess.

Lets do a sanity check for this with the entire network and 10 minutes.

68 PH/s = 6.8*10¹⁶ hash/s * 600 seconds = 4.08*10¹⁹ hash/10 minutes
Basic chance remains, as well as 1 Block success.

Lambda is approx 2.21

Thus

wolframalpha (http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2.21*e^%28-2.21%29)

The chance is ~ 24% which looks about right.

Thanks for the hint Flashman

1) You are trying to troll us

yes, he tried, but now he's back in his cave  :D or disguised and still among us .... beware

It seems he registered his account just to make the thread and troll us...

You can enter to Guinness Book.

It "smells scammy?" Tell me... What about this rings of a scam to you? So far, he's not trying to sell you anything and he isn't trying to get hold of your btc. No attempt to defraud anyone has been made. All he's done so far is made the claim that his brother solo'd a block on a laptop in one day. Without proof, a rather far fetched claim, yes. But not a scam. I'm tired of people just throwing around the "scammer" tag so lightly and using it interchangeably with "liar" and "troll."