Title: The timeline Post by: zby on January 18, 2012, 08:27:21 AM What I remember - correct me if I am wrong. Dates in January 2012:
6th - The rally is stopped at 7.2 in a curiously even pattern. A small dip follows. 8th/9th - Rally is again stopped at 7.2. Asterisk at bitcoinica 'buy' button looks like the culprit (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=57178.0). Another dip and subsequent rallies all stop when * appears at bitcoinica buy button. 11th - 16th - Sideways pattern, rallies always stop below 7.2. Asterisk hypothesis confirmed. 13th - S3052 sends a very positive weekly report but it did not overcome the bitcoinica asterisk 15th - 17th - Again price drops down slightly about 9pm UTC the drops start to be quite regular after 10pm most probably bitcoinica liquidations start cascading (there are little bids left on MtGox for these prices - so the liquidations move the price down and cause other liquidations), price drops to 4.65 price goes back to 6.4 and then oscillates in a triangle- someone starts buying when the triangle ends at 5.6, price breaks up and suddenly someone buys all the way to 6.95 (about 20K of BTC), forcing liquidation of many shorters in turn (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=59980.msg699115#msg699115) the price again goes down to 5.6 with huge volume and again is stopped by a buy out plus bid walls around 5.4 the price again oscilates in a down leaning triangle It is quite evident now - that: 1. The rally from 5 to 7 was overly leveraged 2. Someone with big money is using this as an opportunity to buy a lot Title: Re: The timeline Post by: bb113 on January 18, 2012, 08:32:21 AM I think you should include better than expected "Good Wife" episode and resulting indicators of increased interest (wikipedia page count, etc) and bullish sentiment. This action may have (I think likely) been purposefully timed to coincide with that.
Title: Re: The timeline Post by: Mark Oates on January 18, 2012, 08:49:35 AM It's tough to say. To me, it feels like some kind of reverse-psychology rally.
Title: Re: The timeline Post by: notme on January 18, 2012, 09:05:33 AM You forgot
3. Many of the shorts were overlevereged as well and got counter-liquidated. Title: Re: The timeline Post by: julz on January 18, 2012, 09:09:41 AM Bruce Wagner said on his pre 'Good Wife' show (when his guests were trying to be cautious about speculative behaviour) that people should not wait to buy bitcoin, they should jump in and buy it before the Mr Bitcoin episode because...
bitcoin prices will *EXPLODE*. (it did explode - just not the way he meant!) Not that I really think what he says is that important - but it'd be nice to think this anti-rally is partly punishment for him being an over-the-top bimbo-bull. Title: Re: The timeline Post by: zby on January 18, 2012, 09:41:21 AM You forgot 3. Many of the shorts were overlevereged as well and got counter-liquidated. Added in: when the triangle ends at 5.6, price breaks up and suddenly someone buys all the way to 6.95 (about 20K of BTC), forcing liquidation of many shorters in turn (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=59980.msg699115#msg699115) Title: Re: The timeline Post by: notme on January 18, 2012, 09:45:02 AM You forgot 3. Many of the shorts were overlevereged as well and got counter-liquidated. Added in: when the triangle ends at 5.6, price breaks up and suddenly someone buys all the way to 6.95 (about 20K of BTC), forcing liquidation of many shorters in turn (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=59980.msg699115#msg699115) Fantastic, thanks. Title: Re: The timeline Post by: da2ce7 on January 18, 2012, 10:19:01 AM ...an over-the-top bimbo-bull. rotfl http://hostinga.imagecross.com/image-hosting-12/9346bimbo-bull.jpg Edit: made it a bit more bimbo! Title: Re: The timeline Post by: bb113 on January 18, 2012, 10:36:03 AM Title: Re: The timeline Post by: Spekulatius on January 19, 2012, 04:38:59 PM It is quite evident now - that: 1. The rally from 5 to 7 was overly leveraged 2. Someone with big money is using this as an opportunity to buy a lot I think we may also add, that if Bitcoinica in reality is accountable for ~80% of mtgox' volume: 3. The asterisks caused the rally to stop at 7.2 The question (apart from many others) is now: When will the asterisks return? (7.20 $, 23th of December? ;)) Title: Re: The timeline Post by: StewartJ on January 19, 2012, 06:02:03 PM What I remember - correct me if I am wrong. Dates in January 2012: 6th - The rally is stopped at 7.2 in a curiously even pattern. A small dip follows. 8th/9th - Rally is again stopped at 7.2. Asterisk at bitcoinica 'buy' button looks like the culprit (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=57178.0). Another dip and subsequent rallies all stop when * appears at bitcoinica buy button. 11th - 16th - Sideways pattern, rallies always stop below 7.2. Asterisk hypothesis confirmed. 13th - S3052 sends a very positive weekly report but it did not overcome the bitcoinica asterisk 15th - 17th - Again price drops down slightly about 9pm UTC the drops start to be quite regular after 10pm most probably bitcoinica liquidations start cascading (there are little bids left on MtGox for these prices - so the liquidations move the price down and cause other liquidations), price drops to 4.65 price goes back to 6.4 and then oscillates in a triangle- someone starts buying when the triangle ends at 5.6, price breaks up and suddenly someone buys all the way to 6.95 (about 20K of BTC), forcing liquidation of many shorters in turn (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=59980.msg699115#msg699115) the price again goes down to 5.6 with huge volume and again is stopped by a buy out plus bid walls around 5.4 the price again oscilates in a down leaning triangle It is quite evident now - that: 1. The rally from 5 to 7 was overly leveraged 2. Someone with big money is using this as an opportunity to buy a lot I posted a 2-week chart on this thread alluding to that bubble: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=60131 Title: Re: The timeline Post by: molecular on January 25, 2012, 05:30:15 PM Title: Re: The timeline Post by: Spekulatius on January 25, 2012, 09:14:43 PM lol
+1 Zhoucoin Title: Re: The timeline Post by: gewure on January 25, 2012, 09:51:59 PM |