Bitcoin Forum

I just thought I would make this poll to see where everyone things the price will be a week from now. Trading ranges are split into $0.50 increments.

Feel free to discuss your vote below.

Slow grind towards $7 IMO

I am going to be conservative and say $6.50-$7.00 but the last week or so is really starting to remind me of the $2-$3 range in which the price seemed to stagnate before taking off.

6-6.5
dont see a reason for it to go up
i would prefer BTC to stay at a stable price and the current exchange rate seems fine

Is there a binary trading platform for bitcoin.  For example, I bet 100 Bitcoins that Bitcoins will be over $7 in 7 days.  If it is then I make 200 Bitcoins, if I am wrong then I lose the 100 Bitcoins.

I had to edit the poll because I realized I made a mistake on the last one. I will assume everyone who voted for <$6.00 meant <$5.50

That would be an interesting idea but wouldn't work out too well for the house. I am sure someone could make as site facilitating this but they would require their own fee to be taken out of the final prize pool (say 1% or 2BTC). My vision of this would be a site that would match you up with someone who is willing to bet 100BTC it won't be.

Honestly I think we're still in a mini-bubble of our own making, post the recent smack-down.

IMHO, the trading range should be no higher than $5.60-$5.80 for now and for the next week.

I believe we are headed down. I speculate that the only reason the market has not yet headed down is because there are certain traders/bots (Bitconica?) which have been artificially inflating the price. I've watched the same patterns play out over and over again the past few days: push price up $.20, implement wall at -$.25 of the high the price went up to, sell some BTC at higher price then BAM, down $.20 within seconds, only for the same pattern to start all over again. Dunno exactly why this pattern keeps happening perhaps some high frequency traders are trying to squeeze out every last penny before a bear market truly sets in.

Just noticed 0.123 bot is back. I've seen the bot mentioned in the forums before but have never truly paid attention to its actions until today.

The 0.123 bot is back with a vengeance indeed. From what I have observed in the past this bot seems to drive the price up.

A vengeance indeed...My theory is this tactic is designed to confuse and divide the market by making the price look higher then it actually is, as well as to mess with the market indicators to make people second guess their decisions.

I think the real purpose of the bot is to force movement in one direction or the other. It is profitable to do so if you are holding the right positions with the correct strategy. My comment about it typically being up is just an observation but I believe it does not care about direction.

Is this how the price gets inflated with virtually no volume?

Ahh gotcha, thank you for clarifying your thoughts for me.

Perhaps we have a mini bubble generated by bots... now the order book looks much more interesting.

The bot tries to trigger other bots which creates volume. The 0.123 bot comes out when volume is low and tends to increase it, causing a change in price.

Can you actually see these as bids and asks in the order book, or do they just occur as immediate buys/sells ?

They just occur as immediate buys/sells. Other bots have fake walls with warning indicators ahead of them that will cause the walls to be pulled if they are bought or sold into. Of course when liquidations are occurring at bitcoinica they usually cannot pull them out fast enough. The fake walls are usually evident by having nice round numbers 100, 200, etc and evenly are usually spaced apart. There are a few 1000BTC walls closer to $7 I question the legitimacy of.

The best way to look at the order book I find is on clark moody.

Very enlightening, thank you.

Yes clark moody seems to have the most real time and precise order book.

I think there is about to be another play by the bots.  I may be crazy but I have been noticing them coming into action every hour today, almost always a few minutes within the beginning of the hour. Hmm

Wait another hour before the big moving takes place. I have noticed that the last several bot battles seem to occur at 1AM EST. It used to be 3AM EST but they have moved it up 2 hours.

Looks like I was wrong...been looking at too many numbers and charts today. I've been waiting for something to happen since the price dropped from 6.50 to its current levels, but everything has just been stagnating. Just gotta have patience :)

Patience is the only way to make money. When I started I was a little jumpy and would trade emotionally resulting in a loss of about 5%. Ever since I took emotions out and only play based on larger movements I have been a lot more successful. My advice would be to get yourself in a position where you will be fine no matter what the price does. Right now Im a little heavier in USD than BTC but ideally you should be 50/50 with your positions about 25% away from current market values. My trading volume has dropped significantly but I only care how much I can grow my BTC and USD.

Speaking of fake walls there are a number of apparently fake 300BTC walls on the order book as sells as far as I can see. We are approaching 1AM EST so it is almost zero hour for the bot showdown if we are going to have one tonight.

In addition the results of the poll look very balanced which suggests we will remain in the current price range for the time being. After closer examination of the order book there is a lot of depth required to move significantly in any one direction. Perhaps I should have made the poll whether or not you believe we have reached metastability with the current price.

I don't think anything of significance is going to happen at 1AM EST.

i don't know how you guys can think we are going down with so much support

i'm seeing good balance of support and resistance in $6-7 range with possibility of another rally in the next 1-2 weeks, of course i don't exclude another rundown but imho support will push it back up above $6 pretty quick if that happens

Billy Bitcoin Manipulator the bitcoin groundhog saw his shadow and ran back into hiding. I predict 24 more hours of price stagnation.

There was a 2K BTC spike at 1:05 however but it did not have much of an impact on price due to the market depth.

I was thinking something like Intrade where they sell contracts on future events where the current price of the contract reflects the probability of the event occurring.

Am going to play neutral for just for a while longer.

No BTC exposed overnight, and storing a few low bids, just in case the Smack-Down Witch shows up.

BTC a virtual currency being fought over by bots, seems appropriate, I wonder if one could pitch this to the Tee Vee as a concept/competition, open for all bots to enter, Anthropomorphic them somewhat to at least robot like level - the TA bot, the GS & MS bots (will arrange for Bitcoin to be made illegal or compulsory whilst playing), the Mystic bots, Voodoo bots, 100% Bull bots, bear bots, momentum bots, MIT bot, etc., give them each (or let them put up) a $100 & BTC 25 float to start with & let the wars begin, first bot to $1,000 or BTC 250 wins all the other looser bot's stakes, adjust for 2nd, 3rd place & wooden spoon prizes if needed, can use all exchanges & Bitcoinica (any number of accounts there), executed positions shown once a day, active (& cancelled) ones not revealed until after game ends

let loose the bitcoin bots of war (catch phrase)

I just sent an unrelated book today to a friend of a friend for a friend who works for the studios in LA at a high level & know also a sometimes successful screenplay writer, may just see if they'd fancy a bite

edit: there would only be one episode though I see because the manipulator's bot would win every time as he swung $250,000 back & forth on the exchanges & Btc-ica to guarantee it

*crumples up draft pitch & lobs it in to the bin

you could do that on testnet without any casualties

Voting is now locked. Quite the even distribution among all the options. I will reiterate that I think this is a sign we are in a stable trading range.

Very telling that your poll results are not overly bullish.

Stable.. no..


Everyone realizing they cant change where ever the manipulator wants us,  Yes..


The manipulator is not a ghost anymore, they exist, they showed themselves last week in a bold show of power.

+1
You got it. Freeze like a bunny.

The Evil Smack-Down Witch can release the Flying Monkeys any time.

Im just frightened that the evil smack down aka manipulator is just bitcoinica adjusting its hedges.. and having cascading effects when liquidations happen... :(

Food for thought albeit paranoid ones..  :P

I have been saying this for a while now. This is why I have submitted it as a question to be asked during Zhou's interview.

I believe this will prove to be paranoia.  You don't have to be Zhoutong to profit from the liquidations.

Not saying that you do,  Of course everyone can profit from others liquidations..  what is your point ?

very interesting what's going on now
market is stable, yet very fragile
no one wants to say which direction it will go
no one wants to give up their current position
and so we're on pause

My point is Bitcoinica doesn't adjust hedges unless a trader adjusts their position.  What's your point?

Nevermind, you are very very pro bitcoinica, I get it, you've made it abundantly clear to me.

  
I also like bitcoinica, but it has some serious issues it needs to address.

That is all

If you look at at the month of December, prices were trending in sideways movement for a week at a time,
then we'd get a slight bump up past resistance, then another week of sideways movement, bump up, repeat.

Wondering if we're reverting to this pattern. Or we're just still shell shocked from recent Smack-Down.

It feels very neutral to me.

It has its limits, but 99% of the accusations levied against it are unfounded.  Instead of even making a clear accusation, you just make vague statements that breed FUD.  Can we focus on information please so we can help people understand the real limitations of Bitcoinica?

Tell us pro?

Tell us all how you make your money from the "suckers" getting liquidated.. ?

Just because your praying on the less informed dosent make my thoughts disinformation.

Am I ruining your game?   My bad.

1. Reserves are finite.  Too much speculation in one direction locks it up in that direction until someone takes profit or is liquidated.
2. There is slippage risk.  If someone tries to exploit this, they can hit Bitcoinica hard.  To do so would take quite a bit of capital.
3.  Zhoutong could be dishonest and force liquidations by trading on mtgox, but there is no evidence of such behavior.  Such behavior was once used by so called bucket shops to mitigate the slippage risk, which was more severe for them due to them hedging partially with manual decision making.  Bitcoinica now covers all positions, so unless slippage becomes a problem due to targeted attacks, Zhoutong will make more money by playing fair.

Number 2, is EXACTLY what im talking about... 

So what is your issue with me ?

Wake up, people have a lot of capital..  this is happening. now...

And the locking up starfish makes it worse! If you cant understand that, I really have little more to say..
Not my job to teach you.

As long as Zhou is dealing on mtgox, there will be massive bouts of volatility from the big players screwing around with Zhou because there is a clear sign * saying, hey! come over here and abuse me!  Who wins?

Not us.

I have no issue with you... You are the one bringing emotion into this conversation.  In fact, I'm a little taken aback by it.

The * is caused by traders.  Anyone who is holding long on Bitcoinica knows about it.  They are the ones taking the risk, and the ones who may be screwed.  If you are not one of them, why complain?  If you are one of them, why complain when you could close your long?

Should we shut down the pirate bay because it allows you to do things that may get you in trouble?

Why complain?

Oh sorry, unlike you, I actually care and have empathy for the common bitcoiners losing their money and coins.
Because you do realize its just the common bitcoiners, the type of people that dont have a lot of disposable income that are losing.

And who said shut down bitcoinica ? I didnt, so your analogies are weak at best.
I want bitcoinica to be its own entity. End of story.

But you have fun taking money from the less informed..

I will sit on the sidelines of bitcoinica and not make things worse.

not me you are not so great at analogies....

massive instability keeps people from jumping on board.  case in point, i told all my friends about bitcoin during the good wives hype and they were ready to try out the waters...after that crash you could forget it. 

I respect you decision to stay out of bitcoinica.  I merely take issue with your vague statements that confuse the issues.  That has been clarified, so hopefully we can get back on topic now.

Yes... Let's hide how tiny and unstable our little market is.  That will solve our problems.  But who will bury the last guy's head in the sand?  If your friends can't stomach a temporary dropout, BTC won't be ready for them for a few more years.

No, lets use mtgox through bitcoinica and increase volatility while Advertising it!


Sometimes I crack myself up. :D

I didn't get liquidated.  In fact, I helped the price rebound by increasing my long.  I have already closed that position when it got too high.  How am I adding volatility?