Bitcoin Forum

Economy => Speculation => Topic started by: jamesc760 on May 12, 2014, 08:34:26 PM



Title: Chicken or Egg problem
Post by: jamesc760 on May 12, 2014, 08:34:26 PM
What's going to happen first, a proper exchange in the US or a dramatic new rise in bitcoin price?

I'm asking because we are now at a point where the bitcoin price is flattening due to equilibrium. I mean, would you trust bitstamp or btc-e or any other existing exchanges to send you thousands of dollars when btc price rises up? Remember MtGox? They couldn't survive the recent price rise; you can argue that they keeled over due to hackerz, but the main thing is they couldn't recover due to high bitcoin price.

I honestly believe none of the existing exchanges will not be able to withstand the coming bubble. For instance, when the next ride-to-the-moon pumps bitcoin price to, say, $5000 a piece. If you try to sell 50 coins, then the exchange will have to send you $250K. That's a Quarter Million Dollars. It's the price of a regular family size house across the US. I just don't see these current exchanges able to trade huge sums of dollars/euros/whatnots.

Ergo, don't expect prices to rise until a proper exchange(s) start operating in the US.

PS: I don't consider coinbase to be an exchange and let's not forget that they could not handle the volume during the run-up in price last Nov/Dec.


Title: Re: Chicken or Egg problem
Post by: Dalmar on May 12, 2014, 08:57:17 PM
Imagine BTC-e having a billion dollars on its order book.  ;D It aint going to happen.


Title: Re: Chicken or Egg problem
Post by: Torque on May 12, 2014, 09:21:38 PM
Been thinking about this too.  Actually a high valuation could actually help 'float' the overall market cap, as most would be reticent to cash out completely to avoid paying high taxes and fees.  This would in effect provide the needed support for long term growth.  I believe that most long term bitcoiners will:

1.  Only sell small amounts of btc to fiat that they know won't raise the red flag with their bank(s).
2.  Sell large amounts of btc to fiat off the exchanges, especially to have no effect on the exchange rate.
3.  Keep the majority of their btc and not cash out, since market cap and price will continue to rise year after year until it saturates.
4.  In the future, you should be able to purchase a wide range of goods and services directly in btc.  Perhaps even houses.  ;D

And I'm guessing that proper exchanges in the U.S. are coming as fast as they can possibly move.   ;)


Title: Re: Chicken or Egg problem
Post by: MoreFun on May 12, 2014, 09:30:00 PM
What are you worried about: exchanges or buying power?

If someone is able to buy your 50 coins, then the exchange already has quarter of a million from "someone". So what would be the problem for sending the money back to you? Are you concrned about banking problems or what?


Title: Re: Chicken or Egg problem
Post by: gentlemand on May 12, 2014, 09:40:09 PM
After Gox, BTC-e's anonymity and Bitstamp's stupid KYC questions and reverifications in a far off country I think there's going to have to be a 'real' exchange before things can look like taking off.

They're all a significant turn off to the fresher player.

Bitcoin has gotten as far as it can with what's on the table right now. If we're talking tens of millions per day then what's out there at the moment simply won't cut it.

A summer bubble would be fun. I don't see what could kick it off anywhere near the horizon. I think it's Q3 and beyond where things might eventually heat up.

When ETFs are out there and there's a US exchange that can be truly depended on, that's when someone could point to it and say that it's now part of the finance landscape.





Title: Re: Chicken or Egg problem
Post by: MatTheCat on May 12, 2014, 10:43:22 PM
After Gox, BTC-e's anonymity and Bitstamp's stupid KYC questions and reverifications in a far off country I think there's going to have to be a 'real' exchange before things can look like taking off.

They're all a significant turn off to the fresher player.

Bitcoin has gotten as far as it can with what's on the table right now. If we're talking tens of millions per day then what's out there at the moment simply won't cut it.

A summer bubble would be fun. I don't see what could kick it off anywhere near the horizon. I think it's Q3 and beyond where things might eventually heat up.

When ETFs are out there and there's a US exchange that can be truly depended on, that's when someone could point to it and say that it's now part of the finance landscape.

I think I have probably transferred my last fiat onto Bitstamp due to their anal-probing and not to mention mind boggling KYC procedures.

I now channel funds to Kraken. Much better site layout and trading options than Bitstamp but getting orders filled their is a fkn nightmare due to low volume.

BTC-e, I don't trust to be quite honest. Another prominent Western exchange has to come to the fore. Currently the flagship is Bitstamp, but if they are wanting to give me the anal probe treatment whenever I want to transfer a few grand across and that is putting me off using them, what effects are they having on larger and much larger players?

Bitstamp KYC will be undoubtedly pushing people away from Bitcoin or at least limiting investment/speculation in the instrument.


Title: Re: Chicken or Egg problem
Post by: jamesc760 on May 12, 2014, 11:01:38 PM
What are you worried about: exchanges or buying power?

If someone is able to buy your 50 coins, then the exchange already has quarter of a million from "someone". So what would be the problem for sending the money back to you? Are you concrned about banking problems or what?

I'm worried about the exchange (or operators) being tempted by the huge amounts of money coming in, when and if bitcoin reaches $5000 or higher level. What would keep them from being honest and fill the orders? With tens (hundreds?) of millions dollars coming in fast and quick, it would be tempting to just disappear with the cash. No?


Title: Re: Chicken or Egg problem
Post by: Ibian on May 12, 2014, 11:11:03 PM
The more money flows through the exchange the more they make. Nothing changes.


Title: Re: Chicken or Egg problem
Post by: YipYip on May 12, 2014, 11:21:51 PM
Personally i have transfered 150k in the last 60 days for myself & others..and you point is ?

Stamp have always been professionaly & as for the KYC ...answer the fucking questions

This is not SIlkroad or money launder city anymore ..The market is maturing ....

ATLAS & some other players look awesome..once we have Options & Leverage on a proper platform ..you will see wall street enter the market

Currently the functionality of the instruments available dont provide the ability to hedge positions very well..





Title: Re: Chicken or Egg problem
Post by: MatTheCat on May 12, 2014, 11:34:57 PM
Personally i have transfered 150k in the last 60 days for myself & others..and you point is ?

Stamp have always been professionaly & as for the KYC ...answer the fucking questions

This is not SIlkroad or money launder city anymore ..The market is maturing ....

ATLAS & some other players look awesome..once we have Options & Leverage on a proper platform ..you will see wall street enter the market

Currently the functionality of the instruments available dont provide the ability to hedge positions very well..


Have you provided documentary evidence of how you earn your money?

Tax details?

Payslips and/or contracts?

Bitstamp have no fkn right to ask for any of this stuff. Fuck those guys.


Title: Re: Chicken or Egg problem
Post by: solarion on May 12, 2014, 11:39:07 PM
Agreed. I won't have anything to do with bitstamp, or any other exchange that demands a bunch of data they've no right requesting and don't need to connect me with other traders.


Title: Re: Chicken or Egg problem
Post by: YipYip on May 13, 2014, 12:06:51 AM
Personally i have transfered 150k in the last 60 days for myself & others..and you point is ?

Stamp have always been professionaly & as for the KYC ...answer the fucking questions

This is not SIlkroad or money launder city anymore ..The market is maturing ....

ATLAS & some other players look awesome..once we have Options & Leverage on a proper platform ..you will see wall street enter the market

Currently the functionality of the instruments available dont provide the ability to hedge positions very well..


Have you provided documentary evidence of how you earn your money?

Tax details?

Payslips and/or contracts?

Bitstamp have no fkn right to ask for any of this stuff. Fuck those guys.

I have provided everything that was requested..i have nothing to hide

Are you a fucking child .....Seriously...They have every right to verify that you are not laundering money & to confirm that you have earned these funds legally

Every bank would want to see ALL of the same...If they dont then they are being lax & it would be a concern

Grow up....This is where bitcoin is going... & Thank You Jesus or Satan for That :D

 


Title: Re: Chicken or Egg problem
Post by: gentlemand on May 13, 2014, 12:20:41 AM
I've opened plenty of bank accounts.

Not once have they ever asked me for tax returns, proof of where I obtained the money or how I first heard of money. It's not acceptable.


Title: Re: Chicken or Egg problem
Post by: YipYip on May 13, 2014, 12:23:10 AM
I've opened plenty of bank accounts.

Not once have they ever asked me for tax returns, proof of where I obtained the money or how I first heard of money. It's not acceptable.

Its a trading account not a BANK account

It is acceptable & get used to it


Title: Re: Chicken or Egg problem
Post by: gentlemand on May 13, 2014, 12:24:36 AM
Well, I opened several share trading accounts too recently. Did they ask any of that shit? Er, nope.

Proof of address and ID is enough for them. I'm not giving any more to a nascent company in a far off land.


Title: Re: Chicken or Egg problem
Post by: Wary on May 13, 2014, 01:00:47 AM
2.  Sell large amounts of btc to fiat off the exchanges, especially to have no effect on the exchange rate.
Selling off-exchange does affect exchange rates, just as much as on-exchange selling does. It only takes more time for the price info to propagate.


Title: Re: Chicken or Egg problem
Post by: MatTheCat on May 13, 2014, 01:16:09 AM

Its a trading account not a BANK account

It is acceptable & get used to it

No it isn't and plenty people aren't accepting it and are therefore not wiring funds to Bitstamp which in turn is harming Bitcoin.

Get used to it.


Title: Re: Chicken or Egg problem
Post by: YipYip on May 13, 2014, 02:11:14 AM

Its a trading account not a BANK account

It is acceptable & get used to it

No it isn't and plenty people aren't accepting it and are therefore not wiring funds to Bitstamp which in turn is harming Bitcoin.

Get used to it.


...lolz you get used to it

I have an account ..you & other Nut jobs dont !



Title: Re: Chicken or Egg problem
Post by: MatTheCat on May 13, 2014, 02:18:06 AM

...lolz you get used to it

I have an account ..you & other Nut jobs dont !

I have an account. Bitstamp have just seen to it that it is no longer possible for me to fund it.


Title: Re: Chicken or Egg problem
Post by: lyth0s on May 13, 2014, 02:20:31 AM
Companies that run a tight ship in order to make sure no illegal activity is going on have a place in the bitcoin community, and it the end, these may be the only exchanges to survive once governments get more involved with bitcoin transactions/exchanges etc. If you want to exchange bitcoin "off the books" you'd have to use a more shady exchange or one that is located in a more tax/law-lean area and that is fine for you. But by having legit exchanges that brings in wall street, and bringing in wall street also brings in small time investors and of course the general public. I don't understand why you would hate bitstamp for being legit, you're always welcome to make your own exchange or find another one at this point.

High profile people with big "legal" money would probably rather use an exchange that is also "big and legal".

Just my 2 cents.


Title: Re: Chicken or Egg problem
Post by: YipYip on May 13, 2014, 02:41:51 AM

...lolz you get used to it

I have an account ..you & other Nut jobs dont !

I have an account. Bitstamp have just seen to it that it is no longer possible for me to fund it.

Actually i meant to say that I have a corporate LLC trading account that I can move large sums of money with no problems....was it painful to get setup... yes ...did it take me about a day to get everything in order ....yes........ does it make me feel good that this process is in place ...."ABSOFUCKINGLUTELY"

You dont :D

Dont fight the machine ...there is absolutely no point in it ..all u are doing is trying to beat up a 5 ton piece of granite with your fists

It took me many years working for corporates for it to be beaten out of me ...its nothing personal they just need all the box's ticked and  "t's" crossed



Title: Re: Chicken or Egg problem
Post by: jamesc760 on May 13, 2014, 06:16:08 AM
Sigh.

Ok people, stop the pissing contest. Enough.

All I'm trying to say here is that the current infrastructure is inadequate for btc to rocket to the moon. That's all. Even if btc goes to the moon, the crash is inevitable due to the lack of support. Would you trust an existing exchange, say bitstamp, to continue operation when incoming and outgoing orders are in million dollar range, day in and day out, each and every order?


Title: Re: Chicken or Egg problem
Post by: YipYip on May 13, 2014, 07:23:15 AM
Answer the KYC or dont .....its your choice

the tin foil hat days of trading large sums of money and washing drug dealer money are gone

My buy & sell orders get filled nicely on stamp  :P


Title: Re: Chicken or Egg problem
Post by: phillipsjk on May 13, 2014, 07:58:26 AM
Answer the KYC or dont .....its your choice

The difficulty is that Bitcoin proves that KYC is pointless. It is not the job of a financial system to prevent crime.

If Bitcoin is ever outlawed, your KYC answers may come back to haunt you when the government wants to try to confiscate your Bitcoin.

Before submitting your documentation, I would suggest doing KYC yourself: know your corporation. Pull their records. If you are sending thousands of dollars to them anyways, the fees for the documents are a small price to pay.



Title: Re: Chicken or Egg problem
Post by: MatTheCat on May 13, 2014, 12:19:14 PM
Answer the KYC or dont .....its your choice

the tin foil hat days of trading large sums of money and washing drug dealer money are gone

My buy & sell orders get filled nicely on stamp  :P

Wasn't Bitcoin meant to be all about decentralisation? Taking power away from the man? And here you are celebrating as The Man rounds Bitcoin up into it's cage?

What you seem to forget that taking away 'off radar' transactions, their is very little benefit to using Bitcoin. The only real use I have for Bitcoin is for on Online Black Market Exchanges....and speculating, but the speculating only works if the instrument is perceived to have some greater coming value or purpose that people are going to want to use.

Since Off Radar transactions will remain Bitcoin's only prominent advantage over the conventional banking system, if Bitcoin is to be nailed to the wall by Western regulatory authorities, then the 'off radar' transactions will be the remit of wealthy citizens in developing nations looking to by-pass thier country's fiscal restrictions and get their wealth out the country and into foreign assets. Which takes me back to my hypothesis that Bitcoin was developed by the NSA, and will ultimately prove to be a tool for undermining non USD hegemony compliant economies.

As discussed in Zhang Wei Wu's excellent recent article. The PBOC have identified Bitcoin as a foreign invader that threatens Chbinese sovereignty over their own money supply and have therefore decided that Bitcoin cannot live within the Chinese economic system. Russia dont like it either.



Title: Re: Chicken or Egg problem
Post by: r34tr783tr78 on May 13, 2014, 04:10:36 PM
The three big western exchanges (Bitstamp, btc-e and bitfinex) are handling several millions daily (http://www.bitcoinity.org/markets/list?currency=ALL&span=24h) and unless there are problems with regulators they will handle hundreds of millions.

Running with hundred of millions is much harder than with a few millions. If they wanted to run, they would already done that. When you are sitting on a golden mine of fees, running would be the end of a dream and the start of a nightmare. They might run in the end, but because of hackings or regulatory problems.

It won't take long to open p2p exchanges, however unless they use some third party system, I don't see how they are going to handle fiat. They can exchange cryptocoins.


Title: Re: Chicken or Egg problem
Post by: blatchcorn on May 13, 2014, 04:24:45 PM
Just hodl  :D


Title: Re: Chicken or Egg problem
Post by: YipYip on May 13, 2014, 07:14:26 PM
Answer the KYC or dont .....its your choice

the tin foil hat days of trading large sums of money and washing drug dealer money are gone

My buy & sell orders get filled nicely on stamp  :P

Wasn't Bitcoin meant to be all about decentralisation? Taking power away from the man? And here you are celebrating as The Man rounds Bitcoin up into it's cage?

What you seem to forget that taking away 'off radar' transactions, their is very little benefit to using Bitcoin. The only real use I have for Bitcoin is for on Online Black Market Exchanges....and speculating, but the speculating only works if the instrument is perceived to have some greater coming value or purpose that people are going to want to use.

Since Off Radar transactions will remain Bitcoin's only prominent advantage over the conventional banking system, if Bitcoin is to be nailed to the wall by Western regulatory authorities, then the 'off radar' transactions will be the remit of wealthy citizens in developing nations looking to by-pass thier country's fiscal restrictions and get their wealth out the country and into foreign assets. Which takes me back to my hypothesis that Bitcoin was developed by the NSA, and will ultimately prove to be a tool for undermining non USD hegemony compliant economies.

As discussed in Zhang Wei Wu's excellent recent article. The PBOC have identified Bitcoin as a foreign invader that threatens Chbinese sovereignty over their own money supply and have therefore decided that Bitcoin cannot live within the Chinese economic system. Russia dont like it either.



blah blah blah .....tin foil hats and area 51 ....alien invaders & the great jewish conspiriacy for sept 11

I live in the real world and @ this point crypto NEEDS to interact with fiat

Unitil we live in a utopian society where crypto is used for everything ... I will fill out my KYC forms so I can access mainstream instruments

or

Dont







Title: Re: Chicken or Egg problem
Post by: MatTheCat on May 14, 2014, 01:15:55 AM

blah blah blah .....tin foil hats and area 51 ....alien invaders & the great jewish conspiriacy for sept 11

I live in the real world and @ this point crypto NEEDS to interact with fiat

Unitil we live in a utopian society where crypto is used for everything ... I will fill out my KYC forms so I can access mainstream instruments

or

Dont


You don't though. You live with your head rammed firmly up your arse.

You are up the wall hyper. I can smell the caffeine and Prozac from here.



Title: Re: Chicken or Egg problem
Post by: YipYip on May 14, 2014, 01:19:17 AM

blah blah blah .....tin foil hats and area 51 ....alien invaders & the great jewish conspiriacy for sept 11

I live in the real world and @ this point crypto NEEDS to interact with fiat

Unitil we live in a utopian society where crypto is used for everything ... I will fill out my KYC forms so I can access mainstream instruments

or

Dont


You don't though. You live with your head rammed firmly up your arse.

You are up the wall hyper. I can smell the caffeine and Prozac from here.



I have explained time & time again that its coke & hookers....

I dont do coffee or legal drugs  8)

Head up my arse ... hmmm so is this consildation of uber low volume & no price action ....Its a bearish signal in your book ?

or do u have front and center first access to the smell of your own farts as i may sugest .......lolz


Title: Re: Chicken or Egg problem
Post by: inca on May 14, 2014, 01:19:58 AM

blah blah blah .....tin foil hats and area 51 ....alien invaders & the great jewish conspiriacy for sept 11

I live in the real world and @ this point crypto NEEDS to interact with fiat

Unitil we live in a utopian society where crypto is used for everything ... I will fill out my KYC forms so I can access mainstream instruments

or

Dont


You don't though. You live with your head rammed firmly up your arse.

You are up the wall hyper. I can smell the caffeine and Prozac from here.



Pots and kettles etc


Title: Re: Chicken or Egg problem
Post by: BTCat on May 14, 2014, 03:24:01 PM
The chicken was there first because eggs were only developed by the species in later stage.

Apply that to your post. 


Title: Re: Chicken or Egg problem
Post by: r34tr783tr78 on May 18, 2014, 03:05:57 AM
I think it was the egg, since genetic mutations occur from one generation to the other.
So, the being that posted the first genuine chicken egg wasn't yet a full chicken. That egg had a genetic mutation that made it the first chicken egg.
Of course, this is all theory, since it would very hard to identify what exactly differentiate a chicken from something very similar but still different.


Title: Re: Chicken or Egg problem
Post by: segeln on May 18, 2014, 11:02:01 AM

Bitstamp have no fkn right to ask for any of this stuff. Fuck those guys.

Quote
I have provided everything that was requested..i have nothing to hide

Are you a fucking child .....Seriously...They have every right to verify that you are not laundering money & to confirm that you have earned these funds legally

Every bank would want to see ALL of the same...If they dont then they are being lax & it would be a concern

Grow up....This is where bitcoin is going... & Thank You Jesus or Satan for That :D

+1
for me no Problem at all,too