Bitcoin Forum

Bitcoin => Bitcoin Discussion => Topic started by: gurg2.o on January 22, 2012, 04:32:12 AM



Title: Do you think the value of bitcoins will ever stabalize?
Post by: gurg2.o on January 22, 2012, 04:32:12 AM
Do you think they're going to rise soon?


Title: Re: Do you think the value of bitcoins will ever stabalize?
Post by: bb113 on January 22, 2012, 04:33:20 AM
I think they might fall soon?


Title: Re: Do you think the value of bitcoins will ever stabalize?
Post by: zer0 on January 22, 2012, 04:41:10 AM
As long as people can speculate and exchangers are unregulated no it won't stabilize soon.
Maybe when every coin has been mined and the bulk of coins aren't controlled by the seekrit bitcoin illuminati


Title: Re: Do you think the value of bitcoins will ever stabalize?
Post by: niko on January 22, 2012, 04:55:30 AM
Not sure if it will ever stabilize, but I am sure I can't reliably use Bitcoin for international money transfers until it does. This way it's more of a gamble than money transfer.


Title: Re: Do you think the value of bitcoins will ever stabalize?
Post by: notme on January 22, 2012, 05:09:03 AM
As long as people can speculate and exchangers are unregulated no it won't stabilize soon.
Maybe when every coin has been mined and the bulk of coins aren't controlled by the seekrit bitcoin illuminati

Do you mean cuddlefish and his bitcoin-cabal?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=9152.0


Title: Re: Do you think the value of bitcoins will ever stabalize?
Post by: punningclan on January 22, 2012, 05:11:15 AM
Not sure if it will ever stabilize, but I am sure I can't reliably use Bitcoin for international money transfers until it does. This way it's more of a gamble than money transfer.

How long does a transfer take?


Title: Re: Do you think the value of bitcoins will ever stabalize?
Post by: gurg2.o on January 22, 2012, 05:13:57 AM
I honestly feel nervous keeping even like 100$+ usd in bitcoins in my wallet because of fluctuating prices :S


Title: Re: Do you think the value of bitcoins will ever stabalize?
Post by: bb113 on January 22, 2012, 05:27:54 AM
Then that is too much money for you to keep in bitcoin. For all we know they could become worthless tomorrow. Just buy them as you spend them.


Title: Re: Do you think the value of bitcoins will ever stabalize?
Post by: gurg2.o on January 22, 2012, 05:29:17 AM
Yeah just wish it was more stable


Title: Re: Do you think the value of bitcoins will ever stabalize?
Post by: bb113 on January 22, 2012, 05:32:33 AM
For all you know your local currency will be worth nothing tomorrow. Since many more people would be inconvenienced and it would lead to social unrest, this is somewhat less likely to happen as suddenly though.


Title: Re: Do you think the value of bitcoins will ever stabalize?
Post by: zer0 on January 22, 2012, 05:40:22 AM
The PM of Malaysia in the 90s insulated his country from foreign speculation which saved them from the economic crisis of the late 90s which destabilized every country around them. When he first suggested it at Davos economic conference they nearly laughed him out of the building then after his country survived the worst regional recession they hailed him as a hero.

Lol @ #bitcoin-cabal clearly the btc secret society


Title: Re: Do you think the value of bitcoins will ever stabalize?
Post by: Serge on January 22, 2012, 05:48:29 AM
Holliday +1



i feel more nervous about fiat money and economies based around them, i've already seen huge devaluations in post-USSR when people's life savings could only buy box of matches

re stabilization: only constant is change =)


Title: Re: Do you think the value of bitcoins will ever stabalize?
Post by: bb113 on January 22, 2012, 05:53:31 AM
In contrast to what I said earlier, there is a model of evolution that proposes that most change occurs suddenly rather than gradually. It is termed punk-eek (punctuated equilibrium). I am not sure if anyone has tried to apply this to social/economic systems, but it seems like it could work.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/69/Punctuated-equilibrium.svg/360px-Punctuated-equilibrium.svg.png

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punctuated_equilibrium


Title: Re: Do you think the value of bitcoins will ever stabalize?
Post by: bb113 on January 22, 2012, 06:00:35 AM
It's fractals all the way down.


Title: Re: Do you think the value of bitcoins will ever stabalize?
Post by: bb113 on January 22, 2012, 06:51:45 AM
I just mean the same patterns seem to repeat themselves at every order of magnitude.


Title: Re: Do you think the value of bitcoins will ever stabalize?
Post by: cunicula on January 22, 2012, 09:07:35 AM
The PM of Malaysia in the 90s insulated his country from foreign speculation which saved them from the economic crisis of the late 90s which destabilized every country around them. When he first suggested it at Davos economic conference they nearly laughed him out of the building then after his country survived the worst regional recession they hailed him as a hero.

Lol @ #bitcoin-cabal clearly the btc secret society

This is hardly the line I would take if I wanted to ingratiate myself with the leadership.

 


Title: Re: Do you think the value of bitcoins will ever stabalize?
Post by: bb113 on January 22, 2012, 02:50:31 PM
I think the problem arises due to comparing apples vs oranges. If you care to clarify I'd appreciate it, my original comment about fractals was actually pretty vague and flippant. My bad.


Title: Re: Do you think the value of bitcoins will ever stabalize?
Post by: bb113 on January 22, 2012, 03:03:36 PM
Apples vs oranges = different sets of confounds


Title: Re: Do you think the value of bitcoins will ever stabalize?
Post by: gurg2.o on January 22, 2012, 04:24:58 PM
yeah


Title: Re: Do you think the value of bitcoins will ever stabalize?
Post by: cbeast on January 22, 2012, 04:46:49 PM
It's fractals all the way down.
Heh


Title: Re: Do you think the value of bitcoins will ever stabalize?
Post by: gurg2.o on January 22, 2012, 04:49:32 PM
So confused yet intrigued haha.


Title: Re: Do you think the value of bitcoins will ever stabalize?
Post by: cbeast on January 22, 2012, 05:03:35 PM
If your hypothesis is that there are repeating patterns in the time series then you can use Pearson to test it. My point about the PPMCC being scale agnostic is that you can successfully compare samples that have different scaling.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pearson_product-moment_correlation_coefficient (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pearson_product-moment_correlation_coefficient)
This would be useful if we understood the correlations between seemingly unrelated events. The patterns may not yet be recognizable until greater scale is measurable. Even so, such patterns are useless until they can make accurate predictions. We are a long way from that. OTOH, maybe there is some Manipulator that has it all figured out and is getting rich.


Title: Re: Do you think the value of bitcoins will ever stabalize?
Post by: niko on January 22, 2012, 05:07:00 PM
Not sure if it will ever stabilize, but I am sure I can't reliably use Bitcoin for international money transfers until it does. This way it's more of a gamble than money transfer.

How long does a transfer take?

Overall, going from CAD cash, to the USD in a US bank or credit union:
1. Deposit CAD into Cavirtex account - few hours
2. Buy BTC on Cavirtex, withdraw to MtGox, sell - an hour (this is where the fluctuation in price might ruin or sweeten the deal)
3. Withdraw USD to Dwolla - a day
4. Withdraw from Dwolla to the US account - three days

When the price is stable, the cost is much lower than exchanging currencies at the bank and paying international wire transfer fees. It's also faster (~4 days total) and safer then mailing a USD draft/certified check to avoid wire transfer fees.


Title: Re: Do you think the value of bitcoins will ever stabalize?
Post by: nmat on January 22, 2012, 05:40:18 PM
Hmm... if there is money available on the other side (before doing the transfer), you could buy on Cavirtex, and sell on Gox at the same exact time and reduce the risk even more. Of course, that requires money on the other side which makes it less convenient.

Feel free to open a business that does currency conversion through bitcoin ;)


Title: Re: Do you think the value of bitcoins will ever stabalize?
Post by: gurg2.o on January 22, 2012, 05:46:15 PM
 :) let's do it haha


Title: Re: Do you think the value of bitcoins will ever stabalize?
Post by: Mjbmonetarymetals on January 22, 2012, 10:22:21 PM
http://i846.photobucket.com/albums/ab22/1973mb1973/6361e63a.jpg


Title: Re: Do you think the value of bitcoins will ever stabalize?
Post by: gurg2.o on January 22, 2012, 10:23:10 PM
lol!


Title: Re: Do you think the value of bitcoins will ever stabalize?
Post by: Zoomer on January 23, 2012, 04:50:59 AM
The PM of Malaysia in the 90s insulated his country from foreign speculation which saved them from the economic crisis of the late 90s which destabilized every country around them. When he first suggested it at Davos economic conference they nearly laughed him out of the building then after his country survived the worst regional recession they hailed him as a hero.

Lol @ #bitcoin-cabal clearly the btc secret society

This is hardly the line I would take if I wanted to ingratiate myself with the leadership.

 


Plus, it's not even true.


Title: Re: Do you think the value of bitcoins will ever stabalize?
Post by: Zoomer on January 23, 2012, 04:53:15 AM
2. Buy BTC on Cavirtex, withdraw to MtGox, sell - an hour (this is where the fluctuation in price might ruin or sweeten the deal)

Right, I missed the hour part. That sucks.

Hmm... if there is money available on the other side (before doing the transfer), you could buy on Cavirtex, and sell on Gox at the same exact time and reduce the risk even more. Of course, that requires money on the other side which makes it less convenient.
Or a banker to step up and start selling options or futures. Hell it might even stabilize he currency a little.


Title: Re: Do you think the value of bitcoins will ever stabalize?
Post by: rjk on January 23, 2012, 05:04:22 AM
Or a banker to step up and start selling options or futures. Hell it might even stabilize he currency a little.
Kind of complicated to use, but here is an options market: http://polimedia.us/bitcoin/options.php

Also, I have heard rumors of a soon-to-open derivatives trading market.


Title: Re: Do you think the value of bitcoins will ever stabalize?
Post by: asdf on January 23, 2012, 08:59:40 AM
It's fractals all the way down.

Yeah, I totally get this!


Title: Re: Do you think the value of bitcoins will ever stabalize?
Post by: ptshamrock on January 24, 2012, 02:16:10 PM
I've said this all over the forum. I'll say it again. It will take three things for a stable price.

A much higher exchange rate.

A much larger group of people buying and selling bitcoins.

A wider distribution of bitcoins.

When these three things happen, one person (with either a ton of fiat money or a ton of bitcoins) won't be able to move the market several percent with one purchase or sell.

These things take time. As long as the network doesn't fail, they will eventually happen.

Until then, don't expect a stable bitcoin.


AMEN !