Bitcoin Forum

Hello, people. In this thread I want to share my simple trading analysis based on the chart patterns.
http://img710.imageshack.us/img710/3050/btca.jpg

The BTC-price  is located in AB-channel near support-line D.
I pick out 2 possible scenarios:
1) The price jump aside support-line D and moving to the upper boundary of AB-channel, to the 7,10. If it can throw resistance level 7.10, next target - 8,69
2) The price jump back support-line D and moving to the bottom boundary of AB-channel, to the 5,69, then it will jump to the 7.10. If it can throw resistance level 7.10, next target - 8,69

Sorry for my english )

Bullshit.

Why? Explain your opinion please.

This is a graph with volume:
http://img687.imageshack.us/img687/100/volumec.jpg

The main volume dumping was on highest point. Most of the bulls throw out. New growth rates are on falling volumes, this is a signal of weak growth, and a high probability of the next falling, and shows that there was not as many people who traded on that growth. If the 5.69-level will not be broken through down, then 5.69 should be the best bid price.

currently betting that you're wrong on this one  ;)

no one thinks the price is going up?

It'll go up until it bounces back again from 6.6 or 6.55.

i'm beginning to think that market is dominated at the moment by one large entity on both sides, 1/3 of bids and 1/2 of asks, probably holds bitcoinica starfished as well. other participants are too rational and refuse attempt to move market in any direction.  over 90% of actual market speculation is gone. we won't move anywhere significantly without new news and new players/money joining in. what we see on the market right now is approximate bitcoin economy volume trading. this is pure speculation and i could be wrong.

Looks like it is reverting to long sideways price trend, in a very tight trading range.

IHMO, do not think that we have corrected enough from $7.xx highs. And of course, the Smack-Down Monster can
at any time take us down another notch.

Using this opportunity to practice buying on longer trends, with moving averages, MACD and PSAR indicators.

Where do you think the price is going?

+1

You know this has been the case for months now right?

I think we are being held here. Every time the price moves down, a wall pops up to stop it. Likewise, when the price rises, even pushing through a moderate wall, another one pops up a little higher.
It also seems to be going against the rules for Goomboos' EMA strategy. As informative as it may be, it may have been a bad idea to post his game on here.

Mr M...I believe!
If it could be proven, it could also be proven that no amount of TA would work here.

I apologize for derailing this thread from technical analysis to speculative analysis, i didn't feel like creating new thread at the time of my first post here although i probably should have.

I think market is in good shape. whoever holds huge positions on the market now has much greater 'vested'  interest even if it was early adopter who managed to acquire great deal of USD back in past summer. this entity doesn't want to cause great panic and loss of confidence, but will takeout irrational speculators, allowing smooth growth and keeping it up with real demand.

When I sell I do that in this manner - don't you all do that?  I am sure bitcoinica does that and all the bigger players that use bots.  Only when I feel a crash coming I sell in big bunches and only when I sleep I sometimes leave walls that betray my intentions.  If I start earning enough to justify the effort I'll write a bot for this - but for now I do that manually.

Oh, are you saying that if you wanted to sell 1000BTC, rather than placing 1 large wall, you'll place a small wall, and replace it as it gets traded through. So as to not induce panic on the market?

Hello people!
http://img809.imageshack.us/img809/4742/47495757.jpg
As we can see now, everything goes as planned )
Dumped volumes are less than previous volumes, this is a signal for a moving up. There is a little chance for another fall to 5.5, and then the growth will follow. Short jumping targets are: 5,85, next 6,2.

I dont 'buy' this

Get it?  ;D

If Goomboo's a technical analyst, there's no way he uses solely the MACD indicator. There's probably several that fit this kind of item perfectly.

This shit is all crap. Shove it.

quote of the day.

Don't panic. It is all going as planned.
As i was saying, this is a simple technical analysis based on the chart patterns. Not more and not less...

http://img442.imageshack.us/img442/298/69391589.jpg
As we see now, 5,69-level has been broken down. But the low volumes are still show us that breakdown false. Stochastic oscillator moving to oversold zone. The price will return to the AB-channel, and then the growth will follow.

Yea but 'oversold' for how long?

And it all depends on what timeframe your looking at as to whether its oversold or overbought eg This is the 5-day hourly chart:

https://i.imgur.com/ZA0pn.jpg

I'm looking at daily intervals, that is most importantly. Also stochastic oscillator and RSI are not the same things.

Okay, let's see:

http://img7.imageshack.us/img7/213/53984267.jpg

I'm still looking to up moving... Next target is 6.2

First - we are hitting down trendline just now. Second - we also tested current resistance (5.6) a few times and failed. I see going down to 5.1 (minor support, we already bounced from it once) and maybe even 4.6 more probable.

My view of things that happened last week:

http://dl.dropbox.com/u/1127246/31-01-2012.png

Note that RSI also failed to achieve >70 several times.

This all is does not matter. The MACD in buy zone.. RSI-value in this flat trend absolutely nothing means. Resistance 5.60 wil be broken up, if we analyze all combined factors.

Broken up, but when? for the last 3-4 days we're going down.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=5&i=Hourly&c=1&s=2012-01-28&e=2012-02-02&Prev=&Next=&t=S&b=B&a1=EMA&m1=10&a2=EMA&m2=21&x=0&i1=MACD&i2=RSI&i3=WilliamR&i4=PVT&v=1&cv=1&ps=1&l=0&p=0&

Doesn't look like down to me...

Last 3-4 days going down? After the spike to 5.7 it went down to 5.30s and 5.4s pretty fast. Since then it has managed to climb up and stay in the mid 5.55 to 5.60 for a while now. That is up.

I think Leo is only one person on that forum who has predicted correctly last moving up to 6.20 . His early forecasts were really useful too.

Well, what's next...
http://img263.imageshack.us/img263/5938/39292390.jpg
Moving up will be continue, in nearest time is possible highest jump to 6.93, otherwise, we obtain another flat trend, ending jump to 6.3, ending target is 6.9.

excuse me?

Arepo, are your feelings hurt?

Sorry arepo but Leo in his analysis offers a precise and much more challenging proofs to his opinion than just words like:

 made me smile.. :D

No shits were posted. Therefore, you did not predict shit.

mine also

cannot a troll be an analyst, too?

Leo: Do you still predict a move to 6.3 and 6.9?

Looks like we're headed the other way.

Down, Down, Down, then Up, Up, Up, then down, then up then up then updown

Yes, the main trend has not changed.

I repeat, my analysis is basing on daily intervals, showing the main move and targets, and does not predict all the possible drawdown or jumping in the trend...  Hourly analysis for a speculation is very expensive, and i don't have free time for it.

i'll just leave it here ..

http://img571.imageshack.us/img571/2513/43897840.jpg

Can you draw some more lines on that chart?

Next target - 5.29

Not too shabby.

are we going into a b wave then c..  I had 5.23,  actual was around 5.19 or so.

looks very realistic ..

I too predict that it will either go up or down, and then maybe back a bit. Can't be bothered with drawing all those lines, though.

Up

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i always find naima's diction thoroughly entertaining, and at times perfectly ironic. ;D