Bitcoin Forum

I feel like I keep loosing. I bought some BFL 100 GH miners a few months ago, never got an RIO (became useless after 30 days), I built many scrypt miners, no RIO yet, bought a scrypt asic 5MH and a few days later price goes down 3x. Past few months invested $10,000 in BTC since it went to $400. I feel like MTGOX f'd up my life at this point. Will BTC ever hit $1000 again? Looks like it will NEVER go up again. Just my luck.

Take a look that the historical charts for bitcoin. Over all the trend is still very much upward. I don't get into predictions but $1000 will probably seem small in a few years. 

Seems to me the bulls are re-entering the market and the capitulation period is nearing an end. May be the calm before the next storm. ;)

This thread would be best placed in Economics > Speculation.
You should be able to move it using the links at the bottom-left of your page.

PS: It is ROI, not RIO, and what you really mean is break-even. :)

It will hit $1000 on October 5th at 2:37 PM EST (Coinbase price)

But I don't know what happens after that.....

be happy that its keeping above $400 for now. remember, 3600 new coins
are mined daily, so people are buying that many and demand is meeting
supply.

Once the next big adoption wave hits (Wall Street), price will explode.

And the next wave after that will be mass adoption.

That's a great point. The 3600 coins mined per day are either being kept or bought in order to maintain the bitcoin price of about $440.

To the OP, I think bitcoin price will surpass $1000 again by July, 2014. Where did I get this number from? Here: http://www.geekcipher.com/technology/bitcoin-price-prediction-march-2014-through-july-2014/

If you always bought below the line with an R value of 0.0909 and always sold above the line, you would have made tons of fiat and if you rebought below lines, tons of more coins. Unfortunately you bought wayyy above the trend line and thus you have to wait in order to re-coup your money.

ok, you guys think I should get more miners after I break even? I mean there are 27 MH miners coming out for scrypt coins for only $4K but it seems like everytime you get a miner, you never break even. BTW I mine doge mainly and save it till it sky rockets. I don't dump instantly.

What I have learned from mining is this: Unless you run a super mega mining solution, you're almost always better of buying the bitcoins now and riding the growth. I do still buy a miner when I find that it can be:

1) Bought with bitcoins
2) Will make back more bitcoins than it cost (including the additional of electricity and PSU costs)

If you can find a miner that will do that, then go for it because you will continually make more coins irregardless of bitcoin price. But if if will mine LESS bitcoins that its current cost in coins, just buy the coins and hold.

Ya seems right, honestly these days mining's becoming pointless. After my miner breaks even I'll just stop. Though the thing with buying and holding is it can take months and months to make a little profit even if you put thousands in. Though I'll just invest from now on. ATM i am investing in doge and BTC.

Doge has really good marketing and I think that is a fair investment for a smaller part of a cryptocurrency portfolio (I like to play the market safe). I think bitcoin should be the biggest part of a portfolio. And I advise to also invest some in litecoin. The Litecoin/BTC ratio is rather stable IMO and in times of bitcoin surges the ratio goes up quite nicely for an improved return (trade the litecoins for bitcoin) then if/when btc price falls, less people want LTC and the LTC/BTC ratio drops, at which point you can rebuy LTC with your BTC and increase the total amount of coins you have.

I don't think it's a question of your (bad) luck, but rather a lack of research and time spent trying to do the right moves.
I'm sorry to say that, but it's what I think.

On the good side, there is the fact that the downtrend seems has stopped now, and the rising is coming.
I think, like many other people, that BTC again at 1000$ can be considered a realistic scenario in the near/medium term.


You are going to do the same errors.
Have you ever used an online mining calculator to have some hint about profitability?
For "only" $4K?
How are you sure that some RANDOM-altcoin will skyrocket?
Again, invest more time in research before you do your moves.

good to know! Will do, I was actually researching LTC for a while. Let's just hope my 5MH miner breaks even.

sounds familiar-
when i started to get involved in bitcoin more seriously last spring it went like this: ordered bfl in early march, they delivered 8 months late. ordered avalon batch III group buy, they never delivered. ordered avalon chip group buy, they never delivered. invested big in btc directly (went all in) end of may and price dropped almost 40%...  last summer was sort of hard.
but then came....  november. you will have your november moment, don´t worry - be patient.

2015

agreed

sounds bullish  :)

Nobody bets a satoshi on 2014?

Mining business is more serious and risky than just buying and holding coins. I wouldn't recommend to mine or trade coins, buy&hold strategy gives the best results in the long term for most people.

1 - if Chinese uncertainty about bans ends, even if it results in a total ban(necessary but not sufficient)

2 - New big players in the game, like billionaires investing on(not only in background, but publicly speaking about bitcoin) and big companies like amazon accepting btc.

3 - New and revolutionary tech developed from blockchain and bitcoin techs.

4 - by natural growing, dollar by dollar. Can take some years this way.

5 - If Gox all of sudden returns all money and coins to all clients. Maybe if someone buy them. Probably will not cause a 1000 price by itself, but can be the start of a rally.

I say that it'll hit that height again in August of this year (just the first stopping point in the next rally). There's likely going to be some very high-impacting incidents over the next few months that I personally think is going to cause another sharp rise.

There seem to be many threads recently along the lines of 'when will we see $1k again?', probably posted by people who bought around the $1k mark and are currently sitting on losses.

My advice is: sit tight.

The current market is excellent for bitcoin.  I hope we sit around the $450 mark for months, if not a year or two.  Why?  Because we don't want the world to view bitcoin as a get-rich-quick, tulip mania con.  If the price rockets up like it did in 2013 that's good for people who bought in early, but it does no end of harm for bitcoin's ultimate goal of being a currency that can be used in the real world for everyday transactions.

Imagine a store that would have to change its pricing almost daily as bitcoin has risen or fallen 5, 10, or even 20% in a day.  That's not a viable currency.  I know inevitably someone chimes in with the argument of 'but just use an exchange to instantly convert the bitcoins to dollars, thus removing the bitcoin price volatility'.  This of course glosses over the middleman risk (exchange going bust) and the extra fees involved (currency conversions and services aren't free).

Bull. The price will have to go up along with adoption. We have many, many days of tulip-accusations ahead. The "stable currency" that some people dream of won't happen until north of 100k. Until then it's a traders and investors game.

Be right and sit tight.

The first part of the two is easy.

1 - bitcoin cannot be arbitrary created, so more demand = rise in price. This will be inevitable, if you want more people in the game, you can't expect a stable price.

2 - bitcoin is not only a currency, but also a way of money, like gold or silver, in some sense. The price must goes up more than inflation so the money saving people can enter the game and buy bitcoin, instead of gold or silver or stuff like that

3 - even with high fluctuation in price, btc makes some transactions that were hard or impossible to happen viable, like transfers around the globe of relatively smalls amounts of money between people without credit cards, so that can't use paypal.

4 - about markets: one could develop a open source API that auto-change prices according to bitcoin price. Or the bitcoin amount to be deposited would be selected only after the sell, so you only would do the calculation after the buy. Or maybe even by intra-exchange transfer.   

Maybe you learned a lesson? Get out while you still can, we will go down HARD very soon as the governments come cracking down on btc.

I don't necessarily see all governments cracking down on BTC. After all, with all of the various types of posturing and conflicting stances, it wouldn’t be too far-fetched for some countries embracing BTC. I mean if the U.S. cracked down on BTC, I’m sure that would make BTC more appealing for all of the political enemies of the U.S.

But yes, if the U.S. cracked down on BTC, I could easily see prices plummeting for a while.

I'm pretty sure not just "for a while"  :D

With regards to the future development of bitcoin, Andresen said that creating good forums for discussion was crucial, and joked that he really wanted someone “to solve the Internet troll problem.” - Bitcoin2014 Conference

I'm pretty sure he was talking about you UglyTroll (and kwukduck, and igorr, and cosmofly, and... and...)   ;)

enough talk of the US banning BTC.

All evidence points to the likelihood that they WILL NOT ban it,
so stop creating FUD.

Thats A Big Honor  ;D

I really see it being just "for a while." With all of the politics that are intertwined, there would easily be a slew of other countries that the slack would shift onto. It's all a matter of contrarian policy.

I don't see the US banning it ever. As of now, though the media hacks are talking out their asses about bitcoin and doing the FUD thing, the government has taken mostly a neutral to receptive position, and raised their concerns about the black market.

In reality, there has been a black market since the dawn of controlled currency.

The government also knows the usd and economic fate is on shaky ground so they can openly talk tough but they can't reasonably start in with the strong arm tactics because it'll rapidly spin out of control.

It's standing aside keeping an eye on it so as long as the bitcoin community plays nice and lets the innovators come out with all their nifty apps that make bitcoin a mainstream adoption and the government will look for ways to capitalize on it. By then, though, it's pretty much too late. Any restrictions people don't like will motivate them to use bitcoin more than usd which in large enough numbers begins to devalue usd...and then other countries see the usd slipping and SHTF with a spark.

China's already communist so it's par for the course for them to have a hissy fit and shriek and implement controls. US government won't get away with it without literally sparking a violent revolution in the streets. Not everyone is a candy ass letting government tell them how to think.

Governments worldwide are being forced to take a stand because bitcoin is already disrupting the status quo. It's just going to get bigger.

The fun part is that bitcoin currently isn't a huge threat so they can't outright ban it without looking paranoid on top of giving it more credibility and by the time bitcoin IS a visible, in your face threat, it'll be too late because the infrastructure will be in place, mainstream adoption in place and all people need is a reason...

Just gotta hang tight. I would love to see $1000 coins again, but it may not be that soon. It may be another 6 months. But once the ETF's start to hit Wall Street, look out. Things will change really fast as that is newsworthy information.

Exactly.

It reminds me of just last summer when some people were actually posting that it wouldn't reach triple digits again in 2013, or of late 2011 when they prematurely declared the death of Bitcoin. We all know how that turned out.

The TA/day-trading cultists are living in such a pitiful dreamworld of delusion that they sometimes lose sight of the bigger picture.

Oh, I forgot. This time it's supposed to be different.

 ::)

Highly doubtful that it will hit over $1000 again.

There are many competitive coins out there waiting to prove themselves also.

It will almost definitely hit $1k, if for no other reason than people who bought in massive amounts last year pumping it so they can exit without major losses.

The price jumped up about 10% today, it could be back over $1000 by the end of the week.

That's a far stretch right now. It would take a lot of money to get there, and it would hit major resistance by people that are trying to break even on their buys at the 800+ mark. The only way this would happen is if a major investor was buying up all the coins without caring what the price is.

Or, it could be a bunch of people realizing that we have passed the bottom, and they want to get back in before the price leaves them behind. Large holders could see the price rising and move their asks upward or remove them completely. The bitcoin market is still so small just a little push can start it moving in big jumps.

Sure. That's what happens every rally. But is this a short squeeze? Or a *real* rally? -- I'm talking moonshot. My money is on a short squeeze. Another leg up, but I'm thinking this will fizzle out.

I'm with you on this. There's no news that would provide a reason to believe otherwise. If there were something major that just happened, I'd see it being different. But as it is, there's just no real reason.

short squeeze?  i doubt it... who is shorting bitcoin?

I've shorted a ton over the past several months and my portfolio thanks me for it. Granted, shorting now could be quite dangerous, but a strong rally from here is by no means guaranteed. May not even be probable. But also, regarding short squeezes, I don't necessarily mean only literal shorts, but those who sold with the intention of buying back in the short term. Basically I am drawing a distinction between those who are simply avoiding an underwater position and those who are patiently waiting on the sidelines / new money.