Bitcoin Forum

Economy => Speculation => Topic started by: turtlehurricane on May 15, 2014, 02:11:36 AM



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Post by: turtlehurricane on May 15, 2014, 02:11:36 AM
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Title: Re: Bitcoin Retains Value Due to Lack of Money Printing, a Major Advantage Over USD
Post by: TERA on May 15, 2014, 02:21:52 AM
In saying "retains value". you cannot simply look at one side of supply vs. demand - you have to look at both. Bitcoin retains value because both the supply is limited and because it is growing in demand. However, if the demand were to ever shrink at some point, it would not retain value.


Title: Re: Bitcoin Retains Value Due to Lack of Money Printing, a Major Advantage Over USD
Post by: lyth0s on May 15, 2014, 02:29:12 AM
I think the point is that it retains value better than the USD for the first 1/2 of the equation, being that it is not printed (infinite supply). The USD also needs demand in order to retain value. If no one wants the USD in exchange for their goods/services, it also becomes worthless.


Title: Re: Bitcoin Retains Value Due to Lack of Money Printing, a Major Advantage Over USD
Post by: TERA on May 15, 2014, 06:29:59 AM
In saying "retains value". you cannot simply look at one side of supply vs. demand - you have to look at both. Bitcoin retains value because both the supply is limited and because it is growing in demand. However, if the demand were to ever shrink at some point, it would not retain value.
Well for that, I have another article  ;)

http://www.usacryptocoins.com/thecryptocurrencytimes/uncategorized/the-past-and-future-of-bitcoins-price/

I believe Bitcoin's demand is only going to increase from here.
Yes I understand you believe that Bitcoin's demand is going up. However, you must include that in the list of TWO reasons why Bitcoin retains value, and you cannot just mention the supply side.


Title: Re: Bitcoin Retains Value Due to Lack of Money Printing, a Major Advantage Over USD
Post by: trace666 on May 15, 2014, 06:36:44 AM
since we are mining large numbers of bitcoin every day, for the next few years, bitcoin supply will increase faster than USD supply. only later is what you say true.


Title: Re: Bitcoin Retains Value Due to Lack of Money Printing, a Major Advantage Over USD
Post by: trace666 on May 15, 2014, 10:32:40 AM
since we are mining large numbers of bitcoin every day, for the next few years, bitcoin supply will increase faster than USD supply. only later is what you say true.
Did you see the charts? USD supply is increasing MUCH faster than Bitcoin supply. So this statement is false.

For bitcoin, I found the following growth rates at at https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Controlled_supply

Year
BTC Supply
 Growth Rate
USD M2 Supply
 Growth Rate
USD M3 Supply
 Growth Rate
2007
n/a
12%
10%
2008
n/a
8%
15%
2009
infinite
5%
10%
2010
100%
-3%
-3%
2011
50%
7%
-2%
2012
33%
5%
4%
2013
13%
?
5%
2014
11%
?
4%
2015
10%
?
?%

Source for USD M2 Money supply growth figures is the World Bank, http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FM.LBL.MQMY.ZG
Source for USD M3 Money supply growth figures is Shadow Government Statistics, American Business Analytics & Research LLC, M3 ShadowStats chart at http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/money-supply-charts


Title: Re: Bitcoin Retains Value Due to Lack of Money Printing, a Major Advantage Over USD
Post by: trace666 on May 15, 2014, 09:45:58 PM
I updated my post above with data on USD monetary supply from the World Bank, which I found here http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FM.LBL.MQMY.ZG

Shows a different picture than your graph. wonder how to reconcile.


Title: Re: Bitcoin Retains Value Due to Lack of Money Printing, a Major Advantage Over USD
Post by: Raystonn on May 16, 2014, 01:21:21 AM
What you want is M3, not M2.  The Federal Reserve ceased publication of M3 on March 23, 2006.  Love the transparency...


Title: Re: Bitcoin Retains Value Due to Lack of Money Printing, a Major Advantage Over USD
Post by: trace666 on May 16, 2014, 07:30:32 AM
What you want is M3, not M2.  The Federal Reserve ceased publication of M3 on March 23, 2006.  Love the transparency...


Updated my post above again with M3 statistics from Shadow Government Statistics, American Business Analytics & Research LLC, M3 ShadowStats chart at http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/money-supply-charts

I am still not convinced that the USD money supply increases faster than the BTC money supply. Obviously, this will change in the far future, when most BTC have been mined.