Bitcoin Forum

EDIT: Latest version. (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=676333)

td;dr. I describe previous crashes and attempt to make a prediction for the next crash. Here are the basic predictions -- some of these are pretty legit, others are more speculative.

* The next peak will probably be around 7,500, but can be anywhere from 4,400 to 13,000. This should happen by October 2014. Could be a hot summer... :-)
* Afte that, price will crash down to 2,300. This will likely occur in mid December 2014 - or as late as May 2015.
* This price (2,300) will be reached less than a month before the crash. IOW, in less than a month, it will go from 2,300 to whereever the moon is.

EDIT: Reconsidering after receiving feedback (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=610189.msg6763394#msg6763394), the next peak should be closer to mid-January 2015.

The crashes so far.


* pk = peak, tr = trough
* ft = "foot". According to my simplistic algorithm, this is when the next move up begins.
** Trough and foot for the current crash are provisional.
* n.dest = number of days of gains (prior to the peak) that were destroyed in the crash
* n.be = number of days to break even if you boughts at the peak

* Six crashes in almost 4 years. That's an average of 1 or 2 crashes per year.
* Current drop is similar to the one for the 2013-04-09 crash.
* n.dest is exactly the same as for the 2013-04-09 crash.
* n.be: If the last crash is any guide, we have about 40 days for the price to increase 2.5 times. Will the price finally start rising?

Predictive ratios and durations. Based on the above table, you can calculate lots of different ratios and durations. To me, these are interesting only if they have or might have some predictive value. I figured if a ratio or a duration is about the same for the past six crashes, it might hold up in the future. Here is what I've come up with, in order of possible predictive value.


* r.tr.pk1 = the trough price of the current crash divided by the peak price of the previous crash. This is the most consistent measure that I've found so far. Thank you nastybit (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=375852.msg4028194#msg4028194).
* r.xx.yy = ratio of xx to yy. n.xx.yy = number of days from yy to xx.

Based on this, here are predictions for what these could be in the next crash. Again, I think items closer to the top of the list are more reliable. Those closer to the bottom are more speculative. r.tr.pk1 stands out as looking very reliable.


* Based on r.tr.pk1, the trough after the next crash should be somewhere between 2,200 and 2,400.
* Based on r.pk.pk, the next peak will probably be 7,500, but can be anywhere from 4,400 to 13,000.
* Based on n.pk.pk, the next peak should have happened already, but can happen as late as the latter part of September 2014. Could be a hot summer... :-)
* n.dest: Just like the current and the previous crash, the next crash is likely to destroy about 17 days of gains.
* n.tr.ft: The next trough will likely occur in mid December 2014 - or as late as May 2015.

Previous version. here (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=291006.0)

Excellent analysis.

I can't help but feel that what we are going through is similar to summer'2013, between the bubbles of April'2013 and Nov/Dec'2013.

So, yes, the coming bubble will peak above $4000 for sure, and I agree that it will crash down to a bit above $2000 and settle around $2500.

bookmarked. seems legit.

I'd love to see a curated list of good analyses. What's in your bookmarks?

Yours is very good at putting numbers behind what we all feel is true. Here are some other topics, not necessarily as detailed:

Some long-running threads like wall observer and these two: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=274613.1560;topicseen https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=322058.0;topicseen

This to see what (other) whales are doing at SecondMarket: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=337486.0;topicseen

Some predictive threads which are fun to read down the line:
Multi-year exponential trend analysis: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=470453.0;topicseen
2014 prediction: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=572378.0;topicseen
And eerily accurate predictions of this last crash: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=336421.0;topicseen

Care to provide an explanation of how a 2,000% increase is supposed to occur within the next 6 months?

I dont think that OP had given a fundamental analyse. Looks like pretty technical to me.

So i wonder why you always try to be off subject?

I don't see a 2000% increase happening via T.A. either.

TA is easy - uptrend continues, 2000% no problem.

FA is easy - legit exchanges open, exponential user adoption continues. 2000% no problem.

450 times 20x (or 2,000%) = $9,000  :o

It is easy to interpolate a peak. More important is where and when is the bottom. I am sure you will say now. I hope it is the bottom now, but I feel it might not be.

OP extrapolates peak and bottom via channel. It s not rocket science.
Care to provide an explanation of how you don t see a 2000% increase?

That way, you wouldn t be off topic, and i m also interested.

no prediction can predict things like Gox implosion or China banings. The big rises and falls, for me, happens due to major news and by many and many news that, step by step, prepares ground for a sudden hide, like the threshold phenomena well known from the social network theory. Speaking about social networks, i think that bitcoin price could be better described using social networks than extrapolating data, but still trying to guess how model it.

With Russia getting rid of their dollars, soon you can buy a gum for $9000 :D So better keep your coins.

Those are pretty much the numbers my Bitcoin buddies and I had come to over coffee yesterday, but without the given timeframe, and without any calculations other than gut instinct and staring at log charts.   :)

Do folks believe it can reach those heights with the market infrastructure as it is?

I would've thought we'd need a Western exchange that was fully transparent, formally regulated and was backed by some proper heavyweights to reassure people pouring that much money in.

Can't see much happening until towards the end of the year but surprises are welcome.

Here is OP's projection:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/zwRvcHyx/

It asserts that right now we are going to blast right through the downcrossed EMAs and downcrossed MACD on the weekly chart, rise right past all prior resistance levels which lasted for 5 months, without consolidating around them, and break ATH in august, then spend 2 months rallying an additional 1400% in a bubble of a magnitude that has not been seen since 2011. All in all it is a 3000% rise. This is ignoring the fact that right now all of the indicators on the weekly chart are firmly down and that the RSI on the weekly chart on the last rally diverged, indicating that the rallies are getting weaker rather than stronger or that the trend is over even.

Chart or not, adoption makes it go up, circle, bitpay, the amsterdam conference are bullish news.
You're a full-time bear.

I get your analysis, but not everything can be seen in price charts. I know it's a debate that has been discussed a lot, but bitcoin is not like any other assets.

Btw, we are not following the 2011 pattern imho, nor the 2013, but starting a new, unknow pattern.

This could so happen. Just make sure you're not dependent on it for your livelihood ;)

Looks like double standards for bulls and "bears" when participating in discussions again.

Good question. My analysis has its obvious limitations. It extrapolates, and it does so based on only 6 previous crashes. If you are willing to assume that the past is a guide to the future, and that the next cycle will have some similarity to the previous 6, then we can continue talking.

I very much appreciate all constructive criticism. That's why I posted this here. If you have ideas for improving the analysis, let me know!

The prediction of the next peak price is based on the peak to peak ratio. In the past, this has ranged from 3 all the way to 28. The geometric average of the past ratios is 6.6. Since this current peak is 1,130, the next peak could be around 7,500. However, the ratio has a pretty wide range -- 7,500 is not definite. I think the peak can reasonably be anywhere between 4,400 and 13,000.

The durations I am less confident about than the prices. And of the 2 prices that I mentioned, I am a lot more confident not in the peak price but in the trough following the next peak, which I see as being around 2,300, based on another ratio which has a lot tighter range.

In the past, the peak to peak duration has ranged from 99 days all the way to 664 days. I do not know the best way to construct a predictive distribution based on that. Do you have any ideas?

In the original post, I assumed a log-normal distribution. Really, I should have used the truncated log-normal, not the regular log-normal. Unless I am making an error in calculation, conditional on the next peak occuring more than 167 days from the previous peak (which have already elapsed), the 25/50/75 percentiles for the peak to peak duration are 226, 305, 413. Thus means the inter-quartile for the next peak is 2014-07-13 to 2015-01-16, with the median being on 2014-10-01. [This calculation, done on the back of the proverbial envelope, is not exact. Suggestions for improving it are welcome.]

Now, to your question -- is this pace realistic? In another thread, I describe a very basic long-term model for price (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=600802.0). It's basically just an improvement of the log-linear trend that people like to draw. Here is the prediction from that model:


According to the basic long-term model (BLTM), by 2014-07-13, we will not hit the peak predicted by the peak/trough model (PTM). According to BLTM, by 2014-10-01, it is possible, though pretty unlikely, that we could be at above 4,000. And by 2015-01-16, the  peak predicted by PTM is easily within the price range predicted by BLTM.

Based on this, I revise my prediction for the timing of the peak to be closer to 2015-01-16 rather than 2014-10-01.

Tera, the thing is i ask for your opinion and your analysis.

Of course, i know already very well what op predictions has to bypass in order to go up. I think we all know. But that happened many times in the past so it s far from being ridiculous.

All OP is saying is what has been said since many months. And since many months, you get in what ever thread you can to give your contrarian view on whatever it is. I get it, you want to be critic. For once, think by yourself instead of trying to  destroy everybody opinion.

I want to know what you think now, where do you think this is going?

And you could spare us the story with the crossed daily MACD. It s for strongly trended markets and obviously the bullish part of this market is so fast, that it will be suicidal to wait that the weakly MACD crossed to buy. You will miss the reversal, 100% certain.

So are we well on track for this now?
We have just 1 month to stock cheap BTC.

Crash is good for the strong hand.

Most coins will eventually fall into the hand of people who believe.