Bitcoin Forum

Include what has been spent on mining, the current value of bitcoins you have bought, and the current value (in USD) of any currency you have sitting at an exchange.

This is not supposed to be the total value of all your bitcoins. For example, if you have only bought on an exchange, the answer would be the total amount you have transferred in - what you have transferred into your bank account, etc.

*Edit: For example, choosing <$1000 means you wish to indicate an investment between $500 and $1000

*Edit #2: I have made the poll choices more clear, please ignore the previous edit.

$0 :)

is it "more than" or "less than" ?  kind of confusing if looking too long at choices )

Less than.

What does this have to do with a manipulator?

i guess the idea is if enough people have sizeable accounts, the manipulator can't be all that powerful afterall.

>9000 (http://youtu.be/TBtpyeLxVkI)

Whats with the people that have invested more than 100.000 $ ??? Are they who we want to find out?
Pls add an option: ">100.000$" !

Ok, fixed.

The purpose is to get an idea of the distribution of investors. Taking that and the total number of investors allows us to estimate how much money is in the hands of traders with different account sizes.

For example, if 500 people are willing to invest $1,000 they would have equal power to one person with $500,000 if they acted in a coordinated fashion.

Oh, so you're not trying to mount an "attack" on the man-ipulator?

How the hell you gonna pull that one off?

Nope, I want to know how difficult it would be for sentiment to override the wishes of the big traders.


People would naturally attempt to do it if sentiment was strong enough.

My thoughts exactly, plus all it takes is one rouge trader to screw over the others in the coordinated trading pool.

It is we who are the manipulators *doo doo do dooooo*

+2

(Planet of the apes Statue of Liberty scene)

With a likely biased sample size of 47?  I don't think you will get any meaningful data to manipulate the manipulator with this.

I think sentiment *could* easily override his cash supply, IF we could keep the pressure up through his sells.
One thing I have noticed after a big sell, and people start trading again, the price seems to trend up. If everyone could keep pushing, we could do it. He would then be forced out, or to buy back at a loss. And, I'm sure unintentional loss would be unacceptable to him. He loses some, but it would be small, planned, and controlled. These losses would be in sacrifice, to trigger panic, or to give the illusion of higher volume.  

I would think it to be entirely possible.

For instance, a couple weeks ago, we were having a lower volume day (but not like the last few days). I bought 1 BTC which threw up about 10 ticks on Goxlive. Bought another one a few seconds later and had about ten more ticks across the screen. Then someone put a buy in for 30 or so coins, and I bought one more. Immediately after, someone plowed through the asks to the tune of around a thousand BTC. Now, it may have been coincidence, but I like to believe I triggered a panic buy with three BTC.  ;)

That's why its so funny when stories get into the news like: "Caffeine reduces the risk of heart attacks", due to some experiment done on 30 rats. Even most clinical trials and gallup polls only include a couple thousand people. I think there is some value to it though, as long as you realize what you are actually doing is building up multiple lines of noisy but cheaply attained evidence. Then using this to determine the priors you use when trying to answer the big question:

Does sentiment currently affect bitcoin market value at all? If so, how much?

As of right now, I am leaning towards very little. This poll is kind of changing my mind though due to so many people saying they have  over 1 grand involved. How many people are speculating on bitcoins?

The data is out there:
Where did GeniuSxBoy get the number of people currently connected to Mt. Gox live?
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=31614.0

I think the max number of people connected to the various live charting sites during the recent craziness would be a pretty good indicator. I am not sure whether this data is available or not though.

Yea I like that the market is small enough for me to be able to cause little spikes. I think it is more bots rather than people watching the charts though.

Excuse me but as the founder and owner of DialCoin, BeyondBanks, DCAO, smallplanet, BitDex and BitTalk Media I'd have to say your concept of "The Manipulator" is juvenile at best.

The real manipulators are the ones keeping the gates. You're looking in the wrong direction.

Lower left corner of Goxlive shows the currently connected: 430 right now. If you sum all the (known) live charting sites, it wouldn't be every trader. Those so inclined to do so, will write their own, along with the bots they use. I am about to write my own personal app for it since the sites are definitely suckin'. Though it would still run on the same API the the others run on, so it may not be more reliable anyway.

I somehow never noticed that. Thanks. I think if your personal charting app failed (as probably happens during big movements), you would at least try to connect to the public ones.

What if I don't think "The Manipulator" is even a he/she/it, or that the non-he/she/it really even manipulates in the classic sense of the term?

Seriously though, what do you think my concept of the manipulator is?

Whenever I see "The Manipulator", I feel it's describing some rich fat-cat playing around with Bitcoin. Am I far off base?

It's just people playing with way more money than most of the other traders trying to use this to their advantage.

Not too far, but I think it's someone/group that knows exactly what they are doing. A pro trader, or at least someone who is very smart and knows ho to use their weight to pull it off. I highly doubt it is someone just "playing around with BTC for lulz".

Ah, I meant player in the sense of "in the bitcoin game".

You are so right Matthew, everyone should listen to you closely on this one.

He is working for The Manipulator! GET HIM!

Every post you make supports bitcointalk.org, a forum hosted by KalyHost, which is owned and operated by Mark Karpeles, who owned MtGox, which you use to trade your money.

Everyone who uses this forum is working for the manipulator and don't you forget it.

off topic...well set up polling OP
+1

I suggest heading back to SA and learning about trolling. Or at least what irony is. ;D

The Manipulator is a concept I find as ridiculous as you do. It’s just an excuse for people who lose money on Bitcoins.

Word.

However, I believe it makes it easier for people to deal with their losses. It’s like religion in that sense – maybe I shouldn’t be bashing it.

If this is the Bitcoiner’s way of dealing with a loss, so be it. :)

 ::)
I've never had a problem with a manipulator or the thought of one. He has made me a lot of money with the volatility. It was probably easiest from August through November. The swings were very predictable back then.

there are many manipulators.

Saw your coverage of that on your Video Show, surprised more people do not realize this.

Also Kudos to the Bitcoin Magazine. That's going to make some waves.

Does he no longer own Mt. Gox?

I meant to type "Owns" but I guess it's still appropriated since it used to be Jedds and then it got pwned.  :D

really?
I though Mark was the founder of Magic the Gathering ox.

When did he take over the forum? I remember seeing it somewhere...
Around June or July, maybe as late as the Cosbycoin incident?

You might enjoy these videos I made: http://bittalk.tv/?cat=7

Thanks for that!  :)

I do remember seeing that first vid now. That may even be where I first heard it.

I just hope the manipulator isn't manipulating the results. I thought about setting up another poll asking about that as a distraction to any would be manipulators, but that is just getting epicyclic.