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Title: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: moriartybitcoin on May 19, 2014, 05:01:23 PM One thing that most people don't seem to understand is that after 21 million Bitcoins have been produced, the TOTAL number of Bitcoins in circulation will decrease in a LINEAR fashion each year. Why? Because a consistent number of people (maybe 0.05%) will always - ALWAYS - lose their private keys. This is inevitable.
So with the number of Bitcoins DECLINING (after 21 million) and the demand RISING, classical economics tells us that the price will SURGE. Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: micaman on May 19, 2014, 05:03:17 PM That's why it's deflationary.
Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: Gummo on May 19, 2014, 05:04:19 PM Not if the economy is contracting.
Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: whtchocla7e on May 19, 2014, 05:13:21 PM One thing that most people don't seem to understand is that after 21 million Bitcoins have been produced, the TOTAL number of Bitcoins in circulation will decrease in a LINEAR fashion each year. Why? Because a consistent number of people (maybe 0.05%) will always - ALWAYS - lose their private keys. This is inevitable. So with the number of Bitcoins DECLINING (after 21 million) and the demand RISING, classical economics tells us that the price will SURGE. The demand will be satisfied by alternate digital currencies. This is already happening. Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: Crindon on May 19, 2014, 06:03:52 PM Losing private keys must really suck, but I see your point. Isn't there someway to protect it? That would be good, but a difficult problem to solve because it means sharing trust with other site operators.
Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: DannyHamilton on May 19, 2014, 06:04:14 PM One thing that most people don't seem to understand is that after 21 million Bitcoins have been produced, the TOTAL number of Bitcoins in circulation will decrease in a LINEAR fashion each year. This is very unlikely. Here's why: with the number of Bitcoins DECLINING (after 21 million) and the demand RISING, classical economics tells us that the price will SURGE. This means, to hold the same value of bitcoins, individuals will be holding less and less actual bitcoins. Therefore, when they lose their private key, less bitcoins will be lost. As such, the TOTAL number of Bitcoins in circulation will decrease in an ever shrinking fashion each year. Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: DannyHamilton on May 19, 2014, 06:04:47 PM Losing private keys must really suck, but I see your point. Isn't there someway to protect it? Yes. Create backups. Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: BurtW on May 19, 2014, 06:08:10 PM One thing that most people don't seem to understand is that after 21 million Bitcoins have been produced, the TOTAL number of Bitcoins in circulation will decrease in a LINEAR fashion each year. Why? Because a consistent number of people (maybe 0.05%) will always - ALWAYS - lose their private keys. This is inevitable. You post this like you discovered something new that has not been discussed hundreds of times before.So with the number of Bitcoins DECLINING (after 21 million) and the demand RISING, classical economics tells us that the price will SURGE. Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: Bit_Happy on May 19, 2014, 06:35:10 PM Losing private keys must really suck, but I see your point. Isn't there someway to protect it? That would be good, but a difficult problem to solve because it means sharing trust with other site operators. People dramatically increase their security competence as prices go higher. In 2010 it was common to forget about hard drives with literally 1,000's of BTCs. The odds of that happening today are very low. Speaking of old hard drives, I wonder if many recyclers are taking time to check for old wallets? The odds of finding a good one would be low, but it would be amazing...like buried treasure. :) Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: beetcoin on May 19, 2014, 07:13:48 PM i don't think decreasing bitcoins will have a huge impact on bitcoin.. there are always alt cryptos, so if people feel the asking price for a bitcoin is too high, businesses will begin to incorporate other cryptos. that's why i disagree with people who think alt cryptos are 100% speculative... i think it's 99% speculative, but those currencies will have a place in the ecosystem, especially if cryptocurrencies will become widespread.
Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: CEG5952 on May 19, 2014, 07:18:18 PM I agree that this effect will perpetually decrease. I also think it will forever be extremely difficult to gauge its effect on supply since we could never know which coins are truly lost.
Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: DeathAndTaxes on May 19, 2014, 07:19:50 PM If 1% of coins are lost each year how many years before all the coins are lost?
Linear loss rates don't make sense. That would imply people are as careless with a 10KG gold bar as they are with a US penny. As value rises people will become more careful with their holdings. At one time 2,000 BTC was worth $1. Pretty easy to see how someone might be careless with thousands of BTC possibly leaving them in an unencrypted wallet on an unraided drive with no backup. If you had 2,000 BTC today would you be as careless? Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: jonald_fyookball on May 19, 2014, 08:51:18 PM Even if 1% of coins were lost each year, so what? I don't see that being a problem since bitcoins are divisible.
Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: PolarPoint on May 19, 2014, 08:59:44 PM This is nothing new, it has been pointed out hundreds of times before. There is no way to estimate percentage of lost coins though. Coins haven't been moved for months or years could still be owned by someone.
Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: beetcoin on May 19, 2014, 09:01:36 PM Even if 1% of coins were lost each year, so what? I don't see that being a problem since bitcoins are divisible. he didn't imply that it would be a problem. i think his point was that bitcoin is inherently deflationary... as in, over time, bitcoin will be worth more since the supply is diminishing. Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: jonald_fyookball on May 19, 2014, 09:02:24 PM This is nothing new, it has been pointed out hundreds of times before. There is no way to estimate percentage of lost coins though. Coins haven't been moved for months or years could still be owned by someone. Correct. Yet the effect on price increase is similar because those temporarily frozen coins are unavailable to the bitcoin Economy. Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: Meuh6879 on May 19, 2014, 10:24:13 PM Losing private keys must really suck http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-DPEO8A-Wu18/UBBV_jHRCoI/AAAAAAAAA6M/ZF8uMgvfa00/s320/Creep+Gif.gif Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: Cryptopher on May 19, 2014, 11:10:21 PM DannyHamilton and Death and Taxes provide the most-insightful responses once again.
Of course, once 21 million bitcoins are minted there will be a strictly non-increasing rate. People will lose access to some coins, but that rate will surely diminish as worth (note: not value) increases. There are so many variables, and while economics can tell us a lot about what may happen, there is too much uncertainty around what will happen. Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: pepto on May 19, 2014, 11:52:52 PM One thing that most people don't seem to understand is that after 21 million Bitcoins have been produced, the TOTAL number of Bitcoins in circulation will decrease in a LINEAR fashion each year. Why? Because a consistent number of people (maybe 0.05%) will always - ALWAYS - lose their private keys. This is inevitable. So with the number of Bitcoins DECLINING (after 21 million) and the demand RISING, classical economics tells us that the price will SURGE. I wonder how old I'll have to get to be to participate in that surge :'( Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: tspacepilot on May 20, 2014, 12:11:02 AM One thing that most people don't seem to understand is that after 21 million Bitcoins have been produced, the TOTAL number of Bitcoins in circulation will decrease in a LINEAR fashion each year. This is very unlikely. Here's why: with the number of Bitcoins DECLINING (after 21 million) and the demand RISING, classical economics tells us that the price will SURGE. This means, to hold the same value of bitcoins, individuals will be holding less and less actual bitcoins. Therefore, when they lose their private key, less bitcoins will be lost. As such, the TOTAL number of Bitcoins in circulation will decrease in an ever shrinking fashion each year. I think you're quite right (and a very astute observation!) that the lossage probably won't be linear. Nonetheless, even if we assume that the lossage isn't linear and isn't perfectly asymptotic towards zero, then many bitcoins will be lost. In enough years, supply could become so limited as to cripple the usage of btc. I suppose this problem is so far off that we needn't worry about it too much now, though. I can also image a kind of solution where some percentage of bitcoins is assumed to be lost each year and mining starts creating new coins again. The idea would not be to make the currency an inflationary one, just to stabilize it a bit if it ever overall lossage ever actually became a problem. You know, another thing that might happen is that computing power goes through the roof and in 10 years all new bitcoins and all old bitcoins that anyone actually cares about need to be regenerated with a larger keypair. Then, you might have a bitcoin "salvage" business where all of those old coins with only 256 size keys can be 'dug up' by someone interested in finding them. Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: CEG5952 on May 20, 2014, 12:39:05 AM When SHA 256 is broken, all those "lost coins" won't be lost anymore. So much for deflation!!! I kid, I kid. Well, sort of. Actually sort of a worry that's always in the back of my mind, though.
Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: DannyHamilton on May 20, 2014, 01:46:19 AM - snip - In enough years, supply could become so limited as to cripple the usage of btc. - snip - Keeping in mind that bitcoins can currently be divided into 100,000,000 spendable units (commonly called "Satoshis"), how many bitcoins will we have to lose to cripple the usage? If we increase the divisibility of bitcoins in the future so that each of those 100,000,000 units can be subdivided into 100,000,000 spendable units, then how many bitcoins will we have to lose to cripple the usage? Also, I suppose this problem is so far off that we needn't worry about it too much now, though. Considering that newly minted units will continue to be created until approximately the year 2140, I'd agree. I can also image a kind of solution where some percentage of bitcoins is assumed to be lost each year and mining starts creating new coins again. The idea would not be to make the currency an inflationary one, just to stabilize it a bit if it ever overall lossage ever actually became a problem. No. This will almost certainly never happen, and since we can just keep sub-dividing the units that we have, there really isn't any reason to either. You know, another thing that might happen is that computing power goes through the roof and in 10 years all new bitcoins and all old bitcoins that anyone actually cares about need to be regenerated with a larger keypair. Then, you might have a bitcoin "salvage" business where all of those old coins with only 256 size keys can be 'dug up' by someone interested in finding them. Unless some mathematician finds weaknesses in the algorithms, computers will never be fast enough (and there will never be eough power available in the solar system) to brute force a 256 bit key. Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: DannyHamilton on May 20, 2014, 01:49:29 AM When SHA 256 is broken, all those "lost coins" won't be lost anymore. So much for deflation!!! I kid, I kid. Well, sort of. Actually sort of a worry that's always in the back of my mind, though. You are mistaken. Your bitcoins are not protected only by SHA-256. There are three layers of cryptography between your private key and your bitcoin address.
You could break any 2 of them, and as long as you don't re-use addresses, it wouldn't be possible to recover your "lost coins". I suspect it will be a VERY long time (if ever) before all three algorithms are broken enough to recover "lost coins". Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: Ron~Popeil on May 20, 2014, 02:31:32 AM If it ever did become a problem there are solutions that could be proposed and voted on. Maybe a POS option in the future could ensure a stable supply. The currency can evolve with society.
Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: jonald_fyookball on May 20, 2014, 02:57:04 AM When SHA 256 is broken, all those "lost coins" won't be lost anymore. So much for deflation!!! I kid, I kid. Well, sort of. Actually sort of a worry that's always in the back of my mind, though. You are mistaken. Your bitcoins are not protected only by SHA-256. There are three layers of cryptography between your private key and your bitcoin address.
You could break any 2 of them, and as long as you don't re-use addresses, it wouldn't be possible to recover your "lost coins". I suspect it will be a VERY long time (if ever) before all three algorithms are broken enough to recover "lost coins". Out of the three SHA-256 is the least likely to break :) Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: Bitram on May 20, 2014, 10:54:00 AM It might happen but still it is hard to tell what would be the speed of this process. We might not even notice it.
Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: Light on May 20, 2014, 11:07:45 AM One thing that most people don't seem to understand is that after 21 million Bitcoins have been produced, the TOTAL number of Bitcoins in circulation will decrease in a LINEAR fashion each year. While I do agree that the total number of spendable Bitcoins would decrease, I disagree that it would be in a linear fashion. Those who made the mistake in the past are unlikely to do so again and the experienced veterans are unlikely to lose their keys so to me it seems more like an exponential decay curve as the rate of change of total spendable coins. Nonetheless, as long as other market factors are unaffected price should logically rise as supply decreases. Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: jonald_fyookball on May 20, 2014, 04:08:15 PM One thing that most people don't seem to understand is that after 21 million Bitcoins have been produced, the TOTAL number of Bitcoins in circulation will decrease in a LINEAR fashion each year. While I do agree that the total number of spendable Bitcoins would decrease, I disagree that it would be in a linear fashion. Those who made the mistake in the past are unlikely to do so again and the experienced veterans are unlikely to lose their keys so to me it seems more like an exponential decay curve as the rate of change of total spendable coins. Nonetheless, as long as other market factors are unaffected price should logically rise as supply decreases. Right... Plus with the rise of multisig, and other schemes like Shamir, the incidents of "taking your bitcoins to the grave" should decrease as well. Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: grtthegreat on May 20, 2014, 04:10:19 PM Few days ago, I lost access to my address cause I lost my private key with 0.02 BTC in it and maybe I would be one of those small fraction i.e. 0.05% according to you.
No matter what the technology does and no matter how much the technology advances, the old and traditional methods will always remain the best. Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: Malin Keshar on May 20, 2014, 04:15:33 PM the number of bitcoin available will decrease, but the total of bitcoins will be 21M. You will can see the ""lost"" bitcoins on blockchain. And this will happen after 2100, so its a bit soon to think about that.
Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: DannyHamilton on May 20, 2014, 04:19:29 PM - snip - the total of bitcoins will be 21M - snip - To be specific, there will never be 21M bitcoins. The actual total number of bitcoins that will be created will be a bit less than 21M. Furthermore, early on, there was a bug that caused a miner to accidentally permanently remove some bitcoins from the system. Therefore, the sum of unspent outputs in the blockchain will always be less than the total bitcoin mined. Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: DeathAndTaxes on May 20, 2014, 04:40:47 PM You will can see the ""lost"" bitcoins on blockchain. Most "lost" Bitcoins can not be observed from the blockchain. For most outputs we only know if the output is spent or unspent we don't know the reason why it is unspent. Are these Bitcoins lost? https://blockchain.info/tx/0e3e2357e806b6cdb1f70b54c3a3a17b6714ee1f0e68bebb44a74b1efd512098 There are some outputs which are definitively be lost and some that you can say with a very high confident that they are lost but for most coins we only know they haven't been spent for a long time. Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: ijmolder93 on May 20, 2014, 05:07:48 PM Of course it will happen where people will lose some coins, but damn if you care enough about them you should be smart enough to back it up.
Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: tspacepilot on May 26, 2014, 03:22:52 AM - snip - In enough years, supply could become so limited as to cripple the usage of btc. - snip - Keeping in mind that bitcoins can currently be divided into 100,000,000 spendable units (commonly called "Satoshis"), how many bitcoins will we have to lose to cripple the usage? Yes, I understand. In principle there's not bottom to the number of times we can divide a unit into subunits. I think you're right that this is better than adding more coins to the system. However, my knowledge is limited. Quote If we increase the divisibility of bitcoins in the future so that each of those 100,000,000 units can be subdivided into 100,000,000 spendable units, then how many bitcoins will we have to lose to cripple the usage? Also, I suppose this problem is so far off that we needn't worry about it too much now, though. Considering that newly minted units will continue to be created until approximately the year 2140, I'd agree. I can also image a kind of solution where some percentage of bitcoins is assumed to be lost each year and mining starts creating new coins again. The idea would not be to make the currency an inflationary one, just to stabilize it a bit if it ever overall lossage ever actually became a problem. No. This will almost certainly never happen, and since we can just keep sub-dividing the units that we have, there really isn't any reason to either. You know, another thing that might happen is that computing power goes through the roof and in 10 years all new bitcoins and all old bitcoins that anyone actually cares about need to be regenerated with a larger keypair. Then, you might have a bitcoin "salvage" business where all of those old coins with only 256 size keys can be 'dug up' by someone interested in finding them. Unless some mathematician finds weaknesses in the algorithms, computers will never be fast enough (and there will never be eough power available in the solar system) to brute force a 256 bit key. You haven't supported your last point as well as your earlier ones. How can you show that "there will never be enough power in the solar system" to brute force a 256 bit key? Again, I'm not an expert but I think that quantum computers may be relevant to the discussion. However, I'm just waiting to hear your argument on this last point. I think it's interesting, but even more so if you can prove it. Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: jonald_fyookball on May 26, 2014, 03:28:52 AM Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: Jcw188 on May 26, 2014, 03:37:12 AM Yes it would decrease but I'm hopeful he morons who lose their bitcoins will never be able to get more to lose again. Or they won't be so dumb a second time to lose them like their first time. I suppose there are way to change the protocol as well if enough miners agree.
Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: moriartybitcoin on May 26, 2014, 03:44:26 AM The total number of BTC will decrease after all have been mined, and that's a certain fact.
I'm not saying it's a bad thing or that it will cause any problems within the Bitcoin ecosystem. I'm just saying that based on simple classical economics (supply and demand), the price will be going UP, UP, UP. As demand increases and supply contracts, price has nowhere to go but up. If anything, I think the Winklevosses are too conservative in their estimates! Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: moriartybitcoin on May 26, 2014, 03:48:52 AM Ok, regarding this nonsense about 256bit encryption being secure forever - that's absolute friggin lunacy!
I have a background in cryptography and a PhD in physics. 256bit encryption is secure in THIS UNIVERSE, but not in ALL UNIVERSES. According to the most common interpretation of quantum mechanics (the multiverse interpretation), the number of parallel universes is (almost) infinite. Quantum computing technology is advancing rapidly; a primitive quantum computer already factorized the number 15. Google and the NSA are pouring money into quantum computer. These guys don't pump billions of dollars into a project unless they think it has some chance of success. When quantum computing becomes a reality, then 256 encryption is going to bite the dust. Done. Gone. Fuhgettaboutit. The NSA knows this and that is why they are storing all encrypted communications intercepted from high value targets. They can't crack PGP now, but in 5 years? 10 years? It's inevitable. There are some encryption schemes that would defeat quantum computing, but AES256 ain't one of 'em! Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: DeathAndTaxes on May 26, 2014, 04:04:49 AM AES isn't used by Bitcoin. Hashing functions are effectively immune to the potential of quantum computing. Shor's algorithm can not be used against hashing functions or symetric cryptography.
To say quantum computing is "advancing rapidly" is an overstatement. In 2001 the largest number to be factored by a general purpose quantum computer using Shor's algorithm was 15. By 2011 the largest number to be factored was 143. That is from 4 bits to 8 bits in the span of a decade. We are a long way from factoring even 256 bit numbers and 256 bit ECDSA keys are even harder (~3,072 RSA key = integer factorization). Nobody said 256 bit encryption will be secure forever. It is infeasible to brute force a 256 bit key using classical computing. Quantum computing may someday break it but it may not, quantum decoherence is a bitch. It is possible ECDSA has some flaw and cryptanalysis will someday weakened it to a point it is economical to attack it. That could be next year or not in the next century. Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: Dabs on May 26, 2014, 04:38:20 AM Uh, 256 bit will be secure while you live.. Maybe. But we're all betting that it is secure for a very long time. Maybe not billions or millions of years, but if it actually survives a few hundred years, that's good enough for now.
Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: tspacepilot on May 26, 2014, 11:38:09 PM Uh, 256 bit will be secure while you live.. Maybe. But we're all betting that it is secure for a very long time. Maybe not billions or millions of years, but if it actually survives a few hundred years, that's good enough for now. Practially, I agree with this statement ^^^. Nonetheless, the discussion of how quantum computers relate to breaking sha 256 is pretty interesting. The image above with the solar system sized "perfect-computer" is cute, but it lacks detail. What's the valuation of "least engery possible to record a change of state"? Sorry I'm so dumb. Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: jonald_fyookball on May 26, 2014, 11:45:47 PM A quick google search turned this up.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Landauer's_principle Quote Landauer's principle asserts that there is a minimum possible amount of energy required to change one bit of information, known as the Landauer limit: kT ln 2, where k is the Boltzmann constant (approximately 1.38×10−23 J/K), T is the temperature of the circuit in kelvins, and ln 2 is the natural logarithm of 2 (approximately 0.69315). Way off the original topic of the thread, but fascinating stuff. What is unclear to me about Boltzmann's prinicple, (from which Landauer's principle is derived) is how there are only a certain number of micro states, because couldn't temperature be anything? Or is it a discrete measurement? In otherwords, is temperature a discrete thermondynamic value? Maybe our phd in physics friend can explain further. Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: ranlo on May 26, 2014, 11:51:27 PM One thing that most people don't seem to understand is that after 21 million Bitcoins have been produced, the TOTAL number of Bitcoins in circulation will decrease in a LINEAR fashion each year. While I do agree that the total number of spendable Bitcoins would decrease, I disagree that it would be in a linear fashion. Those who made the mistake in the past are unlikely to do so again and the experienced veterans are unlikely to lose their keys so to me it seems more like an exponential decay curve as the rate of change of total spendable coins. Nonetheless, as long as other market factors are unaffected price should logically rise as supply decreases. I'm going to agree with this, and I would venture out to say that at some point we may hit negligible losses. As the value goes up people are being more careful with their coins. Most of them as of lately are lost due to hacks, rather than true losses, so they are still floating out there on the market. The issue is we don't even know how many coins are actually lost. Tons of people have guesses, but there is no way to know for sure. Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: DeathAndTaxes on May 27, 2014, 12:46:42 AM Nonetheless, the discussion of how quantum computers relate to breaking sha 256 is pretty interesting. Quantum computers will be very boring when it comes to SHA and all other hashing algorithms. Quote The image above with the solar system sized "perfect-computer" is cute, but it lacks detail. What's the valuation of "least engery possible to record a change of state"? The second law of thermodynamics and Boltzman constant. If it isn't clear the required energy only applies to "classical computing" and a brute force attack. It is possible that someday ECDSA will be weakened such that it doesn't provide 256 bits of security, or quantum computing would allow breaking keys with a significant reduction in required energy, or that reversible computing allows for computers which use less or potentially no energy. Of course we have no idea if those methods will ever become practical in our lifetime or even in the next milenium. We do know that keys can be brute forced using classical computing however the number of possible values in a key with 256 bit security and the limits of the laws of thermodynamics mean that while it is "possible" it has energy requirements which make it infeasible. Here is a quote from Applied Cryptography (a dated but very good book for those interesting in understanding cryptography) Quote One of the consequences of the second law of thermodynamics is that a certain amount of energy is necessary to represent information. To record a single bit by changing the state of a system requires an amount of energy no less than kT, where T is the absolute temperature of the system and k is the Boltzman constant. (Stick with me; the physics lesson is almost over.) Given that k = 1.38×10-16 erg/°Kelvin, and that the ambient temperature of the universe is 3.2°Kelvin, an ideal computer running at 3.2°K would consume 4.4×10-16 ergs every time it set or cleared a bit. To run a computer any colder than the cosmic background radiation would require extra energy to run a heat pump. Now, the annual energy output of our sun is about 1.21×1041 ergs. This is enough to power about 2.7×10^56 single bit changes on our ideal computer; enough state changes to put a 187-bit counter through all its values. If we built a Dyson sphere around the sun and captured all its energy for 32 years, without any loss, we could power a computer to count up to 2^192. Of course, it wouldn't have the energy left over to perform any useful calculations with this counter. But that's just one star, and a measly one at that. A typical supernova releases something like 10^51 ergs. (About a hundred times as much energy would be released in the form of neutrinos, but let them go for now.) If all of this energy could be channeled into a single orgy of computation, a 219-bit counter could be cycled through all of its states. These numbers have nothing to do with the technology of the devices; they are the maximums that thermodynamics will allow. And they strongly imply that brute-force attacks against 256-bit keys will be infeasible until computers are built from something other than matter and occupy something other than space. Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: jonald_fyookball on May 27, 2014, 12:59:49 AM thanks for the book reference ;D
yes, Boltzmann constant multiplied by circuit temperature, which is why the graphic says "cooled to absolute zero". Perhaps the image should be a frozen sun, nes pa? https://i.imgur.com/4jXYk0J.jpg?1 P.S. why would quantum computers be "boring" ? Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: DeathAndTaxes on May 27, 2014, 01:25:28 AM P.S. why would quantum computers be "boring" ? They are boring for hashing algorithms as Shor's algorithm is not applicable against cryptographic hashes. Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: jonald_fyookball on May 27, 2014, 01:32:53 AM P.S. why would quantum computers be "boring" ? They are boring for hashing algorithms as Shor's algorithm is not applicable against cryptographic hashes. But... Shor's algo can be applied to ECDSA right? Which uses a hash function within it... Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: Beliathon on May 27, 2014, 01:40:15 AM Losing private keys must really suck, but I see your point. Isn't there someway to protect it? Yes. Create backups. Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: DeathAndTaxes on May 27, 2014, 01:48:26 AM P.S. why would quantum computers be "boring" ? They are boring for hashing algorithms as Shor's algorithm is not applicable against cryptographic hashes. But... Shor's algo can be applied to ECDSA right? Yes Quote Which uses a hash function within it... No although you are signing a digest (hash of the message). Attacking a private ECDSA key using quantum computing would require a general purpose QC capable of implementing Shor's algorithm on 512 bit keys (tens of thousands of qubits) AND the PubKey must be known. Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: DeathAndTaxes on May 27, 2014, 01:51:13 AM thanks for the book reference ;D yes, Boltzmann constant multiplied by circuit temperature, which is why the graphic says "cooled to absolute zero". Perhaps the image should be a frozen sun, nes pa? Well the power source wouldn't be near absolute zero, the computer would be. The higher the temp the higher the min energy requirement. The background temp of space is pretty close to 0 K, at room temp it would need a lot more energy. Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: jonald_fyookball on May 27, 2014, 02:19:36 AM Isn't the first step, hashing the message...so then that's part of the signature generation algorithm.
Btw, It seems the sun would be both the power source and the computer (dyson sphere) in this made up scenario that the graphic talks about. Do we really have to debate minutiae ? ;D Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: jonald_fyookball on May 27, 2014, 04:44:36 AM A quick google search turned this up. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Landauer's_principle Quote Landauer's principle asserts that there is a minimum possible amount of energy required to change one bit of information, known as the Landauer limit: kT ln 2, where k is the Boltzmann constant (approximately 1.38×10−23 J/K), T is the temperature of the circuit in kelvins, and ln 2 is the natural logarithm of 2 (approximately 0.69315). Way off the original topic of the thread, but fascinating stuff. What is unclear to me about Boltzmann's prinicple, (from which Landauer's principle is derived) is how there are only a certain number of micro states, because couldn't temperature be anything? Or is it a discrete measurement? In otherwords, is temperature a discrete thermondynamic value? Maybe our phd in physics friend can explain further. A little more digging reveals that temperature, while normally continuous, may theoretically become discrete at the quantum/particle level. What is then, the smallest theoretical unit by which to measure temperature? Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: DeathAndTaxes on May 27, 2014, 04:53:51 AM What is then, the smallest theoretical unit by which to measure temperature? There is no such smallest unit (precision) for temperature*. However it does not matter as the only form of cooling which would not require the expenditure of energy would be to passively radiate it to the outside environment. In this case that would be open space and the background temperature is ~3K. To cool the device below the ambient temp would require the expenditure of energy. As the textbook example indicates you could use a heat pump but that would negate the benefits of the improved efficiency. The quote should probably have said "near absolute zero" indicating a high conductivity passive radiator which keeps the computer within fraction of a degree of the background temperature of space and use a K value of ~3K for the energy requirements. * On edit: It looks like Planks Temperature would indicate the smallest unit of temperature is ~7x10^-33 K although this doesn't materially change the facts. Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: Dabs on May 27, 2014, 05:04:25 AM Who wants to try cracking a bitcoin address? I'll put some coin into it. ... actually, you can do that now, there are a bunch of addresses out there that have hundreds or thousands of bitcoins.
Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: Dabs on May 27, 2014, 05:06:35 AM I believe nothing can reach absolute zero. Everything in outer space is very close to it, but nothing is going to hit zero, and we have no way to measure that (or maybe it can be measured.)
Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: jonald_fyookball on May 27, 2014, 05:18:55 AM What is then, the smallest theoretical unit by which to measure temperature? There is no such smallest unit (precision) for temperature*. However it does not matter as the only form of cooling which would not require the expenditure of energy would be to passively radiate it to the outside environment. In this case that would be open space and the background temperature is ~3K. To cool the device below the ambient temp would require the expenditure of energy. As the textbook example indicates you could use a heat pump but that would negate the benefits of the improved efficiency. The quote should probably have said "near absolute zero" indicating a high conductivity passive radiator which keeps the computer within fraction of a degree of the background temperature of space and use a K value of ~3K for the energy requirements. * On edit: It looks like Planks Temperature would indicate the smallest unit of temperature is ~7x10^-33 K although this doesn't materially change the facts. right, there we go ... plancks unit... i saw that earlier but was confused for a second about that being absolute hot (planck temperature of 1) it would have to be something (even if unnamed) or else it doesn't make sense that we could define a Boltzmann constant I think. One thing is for sure... there is a very deep rabbit hole to go down if one wishes to explore all the theory behind the energy claim in that sun pic. even Landauer's principle is not without its challenges. One interesting thing though is this: Quote In a 2012 article published in Nature, a team of physicists from the Ecole Normale Supérieure de Lyon, University of Augsburg and the University of Kaiserslautern described that for the first time they have measured the tiny amount of heat released when an individual bit of data is erased. ---- Who wants to try cracking a bitcoin address? Not me. If I thought it could be done, I wouldn't be a bitcoin investor. :) Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: Dabs on May 27, 2014, 07:51:21 AM I'm a bitcoin investor. But I know it can be done. In about a few hundred years, at least, up to a few billion years.
Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: adaseb on May 27, 2014, 08:00:46 AM I think a lot of bitcoins where lost in 2009-2010 when people formatted their drives because they didn't care about having a coin worth literally nothing.
Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: Peter R on May 27, 2014, 05:47:22 PM What is then, the smallest theoretical unit by which to measure temperature? Does that question even make sense? The concept of temperature is a human abstraction. A useful definition for temperature is: "Temperature is the thing that's the same for two objects, after they've been in contact long enough." [1] Physicists then build up mathematical models on top of this definition (and other definitions) that explain what we observe in nature--models such as Boltzmann Factors, the Equipartition Theorem, and even things like the Bose-Einstein and Fermi-Dirac distributions. But the crazy thing is that none of the parameters of physics (temperature, force, energy, etc) are real in the sense that the computer I am typing on is real. They are all just useful abstractions that help us explain what we see in nature. Jonald: purchase the book "Feynman Lectures on Computation" by R.P. Feynman. It is fantastic, it will answer a lot of your questions, and it will give you a bunch of new ideas! [1] DV Schroeder, "Introduction to Thermal Physics," Addison-Wesley Longman, 2000. Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: Aswan on May 27, 2014, 06:04:41 PM One thing that most people don't seem to understand is that after 21 million Bitcoins have been produced, the TOTAL number of Bitcoins in circulation will decrease in a LINEAR fashion each year. Why? Because a consistent number of people (maybe 0.05%) will always - ALWAYS - lose their private keys. This is inevitable. So with the number of Bitcoins DECLINING (after 21 million) and the demand RISING, classical economics tells us that the price will SURGE. When bitcoin becomes more and more mainstream, the demand for banks securely storing bitcoin will rise. Most people will have their BTC with a bank because they don't care about privacy and are scared of not being able to secure their coins. Additionally, most people are susceptible to those ads big banks are gonna eventually use make more people deposit money with them. As a result, most BTC transactions will not be person to person (or address to address) but bank to bank just like today. Because of this, it will be easy for banks to increase the supply of BTC by using fractional reserve banking and only issuing IOU which are only backed by 10% (or less) resulting in a huge spike of BTC supply (similar to gold today). Because of said banks having to much money (today and during the transition and thanks to the BTC fractional reserve banking, also after the transition), they will be able to monopolize this sector and become bigger and bigger inflating the BTC supply even more - because they can and because that way they get something for nothing while everyone else loses. As a result, while the actual number of BTC are declining, the number of BTC that are used for payment etc are going to increase a lot faster than they are meant to increase by the protokoll. The only difference might be that you can be your own bank - and that once a bank fails to pay out, they can't magically conjure new BTC. Again this might be the case - they could as well pay some politicians to only allow whitelisted addresses to make payments to merchants (which are audited) and force you to accept their inflated BTC for settlement of debt by paying men with guns to enforce their made up rules. just my 2 satoshis.. Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: jonald_fyookball on May 27, 2014, 06:13:14 PM What is then, the smallest theoretical unit by which to measure temperature? Does that question even make sense? The concept of temperature is a human abstraction. A useful definition for temperature is: "Temperature is the thing that's the same for two objects, after they've been in contact long enough." [1] Physicists then build up mathematical models on top of this definition (and other definitions) that explain what we observe in nature--models such as Boltzmann Factors, the Equipartition Theorem, and even things like the Bose-Einstein and Fermi-Dirac distributions. But the crazy thing is that none of the parameters of physics (temperature, force, energy, etc) are real in the sense that the computer I am typing on is real. They are all just useful abstractions that help us explain what we see in nature. Jonald: purchase the book "Feynman Lectures on Computation" by R.P. Feynman. It is fantastic, it will answer a lot of your questions, and it will give you a bunch of new ideas! [1] DV Schroeder, "Introduction to Thermal Physics," Addison-Wesley Longman, 2000. Dude, I love Feynman! I read 2 or 3 of his books but not that one...thanks for the suggestion. Cool thoughts too. The reason i was thinking about temperature is because Landauer's principle seems to ultimately rest on there being a discrete measurement for it, and I wanted to know what that is. Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: BitcoinTraders on May 27, 2014, 06:25:14 PM I'm a bitcoin investor. But I know it can be done. In about a few hundred years, at least, up to a few billion years. Yes it's true that everything can be happen but i think that for a few months or years it won't decrease...Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: agoraadnim on May 27, 2014, 06:59:39 PM Interesting thought. Never considered this before.
Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: Velkro on May 27, 2014, 07:08:58 PM you are right, even for professional IT specialist, secure'ing keys is challenge
i mean, you can oversee some problems like backup every ~100 transactions Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: moriartybitcoin on May 27, 2014, 07:55:03 PM Human nature is human nature. People will always lose their keys. After 21 million bitcoins, the number will decrease in a LINEAR fashion each year.
Unless somehow we humans become perfect :-) Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: roslinpl on May 27, 2014, 07:56:50 PM Yes well but till this time there will be Bitcoin2 perhaps ...
People will probably never stop using Bitcoins but in next decade there will be need for another as good coin as Bitcoin. We will see - but yes - total number will .. hmm decrease in a number of coins in usage. But there will be still same amount :P Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: ranlo on May 27, 2014, 08:33:34 PM Human nature is human nature. People will always lose their keys. After 21 million bitcoins, the number will decrease in a LINEAR fashion each year. Unless somehow we humans become perfect :-) It won't be linear. That would assume that the same number are lost year after year, when really it's going to be variable. It'll be more like a wave than anything. Some years people will lose a lot, some they will lose almost nothing; especially if we get more whales. Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: tspacepilot on May 28, 2014, 04:21:51 AM Human nature is human nature. People will always lose their keys. After 21 million bitcoins, the number will decrease in a LINEAR fashion each year. Unless somehow we humans become perfect :-) We all agree that some bitcoins will be lost, but there's already been some pretty solid arguments posted upthread showing that it won't be linear. You should consider those arguments, I think. "human nature is human nature" is a tautology that doesn't do much in the face of actual arguments, IMHO. Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: gitinahang on May 28, 2014, 03:35:30 PM xcp burned a couple thousand already.
Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: nkocevar on May 28, 2014, 04:58:31 PM https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=616098.msg6817231#msg6817231
Follow this link to see the effect of someone losing their wallet containing tons of bitcoins. Its effect on the market as well as the total number of bitcoins in circulation. Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: TopherB on May 28, 2014, 05:12:24 PM Losing private keys must really suck, but I see your point. Isn't there someway to protect it? Yes. Create backups. Take personal responsibility? No, I insist someone protect me from my own many forms of laziness. Make it law. Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: ranlo on May 29, 2014, 03:08:36 AM Losing private keys must really suck, but I see your point. Isn't there someway to protect it? Yes. Create backups. Take personal responsibility? No, I insist someone protect me from my own many forms of laziness. Make it law. Store all your BTC on Circle (when/if they open) and your wish may or may not be granted! Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: eXch on May 29, 2014, 03:26:04 AM Well, lets assume that holding BTC is the best option
Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: tspacepilot on May 29, 2014, 05:15:44 AM xcp burned a couple thousand already. is xcp a person on this forum? I'm confused (perhaps perpetually so :) ). Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: bryant.coleman on May 29, 2014, 06:22:54 AM I have read somewhere that around 7% of all the currently circulating Bitcoins are lost for ever (i.e the Private Keys are not with any one). This figure will increase over time.
Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: ranlo on May 29, 2014, 06:33:36 AM I have read somewhere that around 7% of all the currently circulating Bitcoins are lost for ever (i.e the Private Keys are not with any one). This figure will increase over time. The figure isn't known though. People speculate and try to craft their own numbers, but there's no way to know for sure. There are definitely people sitting on coins from '09-'10 that haven't moved them but still have access. Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: nickenburg on May 29, 2014, 02:57:44 PM One thing that most people don't seem to understand is that after 21 million Bitcoins have been produced, the TOTAL number of Bitcoins in circulation will decrease in a LINEAR fashion each year. Why? Because a consistent number of people (maybe 0.05%) will always - ALWAYS - lose their private keys. This is inevitable. So with the number of Bitcoins DECLINING (after 21 million) and the demand RISING, classical economics tells us that the price will SURGE. Yes and 21 million bitcoins only so we dont have enough. So for everyone to use it maybe 100 satoshi will be 10$ someday. So everyone can use bitcoin, or do you think other altcoins there price will go up so there are enough coins for everyone? Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: chennan on May 29, 2014, 03:42:43 PM Uh, 256 bit will be secure while you live.. Maybe. But we're all betting that it is secure for a very long time. Maybe not billions or millions of years, but if it actually survives a few hundred years, that's good enough for now. Practially, I agree with this statement ^^^. Nonetheless, the discussion of how quantum computers relate to breaking sha 256 is pretty interesting. The image above with the solar system sized "perfect-computer" is cute, but it lacks detail. What's the valuation of "least engery possible to record a change of state"? Sorry I'm so dumb. Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: ranlo on May 29, 2014, 03:48:06 PM One thing that most people don't seem to understand is that after 21 million Bitcoins have been produced, the TOTAL number of Bitcoins in circulation will decrease in a LINEAR fashion each year. Why? Because a consistent number of people (maybe 0.05%) will always - ALWAYS - lose their private keys. This is inevitable. So with the number of Bitcoins DECLINING (after 21 million) and the demand RISING, classical economics tells us that the price will SURGE. Yes and 21 million bitcoins only so we dont have enough. So for everyone to use it maybe 100 satoshi will be 10$ someday. So everyone can use bitcoin, or do you think other altcoins there price will go up so there are enough coins for everyone? Altcoins are all tied to Bitcoin, so it doesn't matter how many there are; the cap will always be based on what Bitcoin is worth. The only way to solve this would be to break some alts away from it completely and have them stand on their own. Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: LiteCoinGuy on May 29, 2014, 06:41:51 PM Litecoin will solve this problem ;)
....but to be more serious: you can divide btc endless, so we have plenty of time. there can be 5 million btc and its enough. lets talk again in 150 years about that "problem" :D (iam optimistic) Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: ShakyhandsBTCer on June 13, 2014, 01:09:43 AM One thing that most people don't seem to understand is that after 21 million Bitcoins have been produced, the TOTAL number of Bitcoins in circulation will decrease in a LINEAR fashion each year. This is very unlikely. Here's why: with the number of Bitcoins DECLINING (after 21 million) and the demand RISING, classical economics tells us that the price will SURGE. This means, to hold the same value of bitcoins, individuals will be holding less and less actual bitcoins. Therefore, when they lose their private key, less bitcoins will be lost. As such, the TOTAL number of Bitcoins in circulation will decrease in an ever shrinking fashion each year. You are correct. As the price of bitcoin increases, people will take more case of their keys and security of their wallet. Someone with $0.25 worth of bitcoin may not even have a password attached to his wallet, but if that same .0004 BTC is worth $1,000 then he would likely use double encryption, 2FA, multiple backups, ect) Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: Geremia on April 18, 2015, 11:02:43 PM Maybe our phd in physics friend can explain further. Who's he? I'm a physicist, too.Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: moosedawg on April 19, 2015, 06:16:05 AM When's Gemini going to happen?
Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: Troonetpt on April 19, 2015, 06:35:29 AM It can't be the linear, that would be crazy.
The most possibility would be the number will tend to a constant number, as people become more and more careless to keep their private key. Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: BusyBeaverHP on April 19, 2015, 06:40:44 AM Please Google "exponential decay". That is all.
Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: Q7 on April 19, 2015, 08:25:18 AM When the cap limit has been reached and it's getting harder to obtain supplies, eventually price will go up which naturally makes people become more attentive and more careful about managing private keys. Never mind about whether it is going to be exponential or linear, the amount will definitely decrease for sure.
Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: InceptionCoin on April 19, 2015, 08:43:09 AM Price in USD defined by many factors, mostly by:
1) increasing of amount of btc in circulation 2) increasing of amount of usd in circulation 3) demand of ppl in asset like btc Current rate of increasing if btc in circulation is very high. I assume that majority of currently mined btc are going to exchange(to pay the electricity costs). 2/3 of btc never have touched after mining, so we have 1,3m gain yearly to 4.3m btc in circulation. Its like 30% raise yearly. Current rate of increasing of usd in circulation is much slower. So if we assume that ppl's demand in btc not increased(there wasn't any extraordinary frightening events with banking system) and btc2.0 app still very immature, we will find that btc price should go down. In the distant future we couldn't predict any of this factors, even btc in circulation, because in contrast with banking system where all money always in circulation, here holders hold their coins outside from economic. Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: LiteCoinGuy on April 19, 2015, 09:19:04 AM One thing that most people don't seem to understand is that after 21 million Bitcoins have been produced, the TOTAL number of Bitcoins in circulation will decrease in a LINEAR fashion each year. Why? Because a consistent number of people (maybe 0.05%) will always - ALWAYS - lose their private keys. This is inevitable. You post this like you discovered something new that has not been discussed hundreds of times before.So with the number of Bitcoins DECLINING (after 21 million) and the demand RISING, classical economics tells us that the price will SURGE. yes but everyone has to learn this at some point :) http://pmdstudios.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/ideaguy.jpg Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: Netnox on April 19, 2015, 09:45:26 AM I think those who can't protect it themselves will have to store them in a trusted third party like a bank, i think that is actually needed for the non tech savy.
Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: tatu on April 19, 2015, 09:59:36 AM I think those who can't protect it themselves will have to store them in a trusted third party like a bank, i think that is actually needed for the non tech savy. I don't think you have to be tech savvy at all. If you can use Paypal or online banking then there's not much difference especially with something like blockchain.info so people should be able to use bitcoin without any problems too. Wallets will also get more consumer friendly and more secure over time. Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: Yeah? on April 19, 2015, 10:01:36 AM One thing that most people don't seem to understand is that after 21 million Bitcoins have been produced, the TOTAL number of Bitcoins in circulation will decrease in a LINEAR fashion each year. Why? Because a consistent number of people (maybe 0.05%) will always - ALWAYS - lose their private keys. This is inevitable. You post this like you discovered something new that has not been discussed hundreds of times before.So with the number of Bitcoins DECLINING (after 21 million) and the demand RISING, classical economics tells us that the price will SURGE. yes but everyone has to learn this at some point :) http://pmdstudios.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/ideaguy.jpg Exactly. It doesn't even matter any way. If people lose their coins then they lose them. However, my coins will still be safe and if demand for bitcoin is high it will just make the coins you own more valuable. If it ever became a massive problem more decimal places can be added as well. Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: InceptionCoin on April 19, 2015, 02:58:04 PM I think those who can't protect it themselves will have to store them in a trusted third party like a bank, i think that is actually needed for the non tech savy. There is the difference between bank deposit and trusted third party. When you put your money on deposit bank use it to give someone a loan and so on, so your money always in circulation.But i think that majority of ppl with big amount of btc wont to put it under any risk. Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: Sarthak on April 19, 2015, 03:05:03 PM One thing that most people don't seem to understand is that after 21 million Bitcoins have been produced, the TOTAL number of Bitcoins in circulation will decrease in a LINEAR fashion each year. Why? Because a consistent number of people (maybe 0.05%) will always - ALWAYS - lose their private keys. This is inevitable. So with the number of Bitcoins DECLINING (after 21 million) and the demand RISING, classical economics tells us that the price will SURGE. And most of the people don't share their private key with anyone and if they die its gone forever.. I guess that's even bigger problem than you stated but I heard multisignature can be used. I don't know how it actually works though. Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: thejaytiesto on April 19, 2015, 04:26:51 PM One thing that most people don't seem to understand is that after 21 million Bitcoins have been produced, the TOTAL number of Bitcoins in circulation will decrease in a LINEAR fashion each year. Why? Because a consistent number of people (maybe 0.05%) will always - ALWAYS - lose their private keys. This is inevitable. So with the number of Bitcoins DECLINING (after 21 million) and the demand RISING, classical economics tells us that the price will SURGE. My very gross estimate is by 2140 when all Bitcoins are done being mined, at least 40% of the total supply will have disappeared by then due coins being lost forever. Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: torry28 on April 19, 2015, 05:34:06 PM maybe this have opposite effect , people loose private keys and then start giving it a bad name and thus declining the value ?
Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: BTC_Superman on May 14, 2015, 04:07:09 PM Every year some people lose their keys, so it is obvious total number of bitcoins will decrease every year.
Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: BurtW on May 14, 2015, 04:37:54 PM Every year some people lose their keys, so it is obvious total number of bitcoins will decrease every year. Very true, and welcome to Bitcoin.Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: pooya87 on May 14, 2015, 04:54:34 PM maybe this have opposite effect , people loose private keys and then start giving it a bad name and thus declining the value ? nah, the number of people who will lose their private keys are a small portion of bitcoin users. also the number of people who lost their private keys and would give bitcoin a bad name would be small, so i doubt if it has any significant effectTitle: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: tspacepilot on May 14, 2015, 08:29:41 PM Every year some people lose their keys, so it is obvious total number of bitcoins will decrease every year. Very true, and welcome to Bitcoin.Indeed, welcome, and also please consider whether it's worthwhile to bump a thread which hasn't been posted in for more than a month just to restate a one line opinion which is basically what the OP says but less elegantly. :) Welcome. :) Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: Bitcoin_BOy$ on May 14, 2015, 08:34:58 PM I agree with you , also theirs some miners who always burn their bitcoins I don't know
why but they are really burning a lot like 20 - 30 btc and till now i can see some burning wallet that can't be every generated with more than 1000 btc , also theirs some hack cases that the hacker won't use ever that btc ,,,, the 21 Millions won't ever exist . Bitcoin Boy . Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: SpanishSoldier on May 14, 2015, 08:43:42 PM I agree with you , also theirs some miners who always burn their bitcoins I don't know why but they are really burning a lot like 20 - 30 btc and till now i can see some burning wallet that can't be every generated with more than 1000 btc , also theirs some hack cases that the hacker won't use ever that btc ,,,, the 21 Millions won't ever exist . Bitcoin Boy . Miners burning 20-30 BTC ? Really ? Your source please... Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: bitllionaire on May 14, 2015, 09:10:57 PM That obvious man, there are thousands of bitcoins lost, even I remember to have seen a page that collects all the information of lost bitcoins
Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: Bitcoin_BOy$ on May 14, 2015, 09:38:59 PM I agree with you , also theirs some miners who always burn their bitcoins I don't know why but they are really burning a lot like 20 - 30 btc and till now i can see some burning wallet that can't be every generated with more than 1000 btc , also theirs some hack cases that the hacker won't use ever that btc ,,,, the 21 Millions won't ever exist . Bitcoin Boy . Miners burning 20-30 BTC ? Really ? Your source please... https://blockchain.info/address/1CounterpartyXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXUWLpVr This is a wallet created for miners that burn bitcoin now it have more than 2130 BTC did you think that's not burning and the amount of btc won't reduce ? Best wishes , Bitcoin Boy . Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: pereira4 on May 14, 2015, 09:40:59 PM I agree with you , also theirs some miners who always burn their bitcoins I don't know why but they are really burning a lot like 20 - 30 btc and till now i can see some burning wallet that can't be every generated with more than 1000 btc , also theirs some hack cases that the hacker won't use ever that btc ,,,, the 21 Millions won't ever exist . Bitcoin Boy . I don't get why would you burn your coins, unless you are so rich that you want to shrink the total supply to drive the price up. Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: SpanishSoldier on May 14, 2015, 10:15:27 PM I agree with you , also theirs some miners who always burn their bitcoins I don't know why but they are really burning a lot like 20 - 30 btc and till now i can see some burning wallet that can't be every generated with more than 1000 btc , also theirs some hack cases that the hacker won't use ever that btc ,,,, the 21 Millions won't ever exist . Bitcoin Boy . Miners burning 20-30 BTC ? Really ? Your source please... https://blockchain.info/address/1CounterpartyXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXUWLpVr This is a wallet created for miners that burn bitcoin now it have more than 2130 BTC did you think that's not burning and the amount of btc won't reduce ? Best wishes , Bitcoin Boy . Interesting... so what's the purpose ? Why are they burning ? Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: BurtW on May 14, 2015, 10:40:11 PM I agree with you , also theirs some miners who always burn their bitcoins I don't know why but they are really burning a lot like 20 - 30 btc and till now i can see some burning wallet that can't be every generated with more than 1000 btc , also theirs some hack cases that the hacker won't use ever that btc ,,,, the 21 Millions won't ever exist . Bitcoin Boy . Miners burning 20-30 BTC ? Really ? Your source please... https://blockchain.info/address/1CounterpartyXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXUWLpVr This is a wallet created for miners that burn bitcoin now it have more than 2130 BTC did you think that's not burning and the amount of btc won't reduce ? Best wishes , Bitcoin Boy . Interesting... so what's the purpose ? Why are they burning ? https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Proof_of_burn This is the XCP proof of burn address. Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: SpanishSoldier on May 14, 2015, 10:44:59 PM I agree with you , also theirs some miners who always burn their bitcoins I don't know why but they are really burning a lot like 20 - 30 btc and till now i can see some burning wallet that can't be every generated with more than 1000 btc , also theirs some hack cases that the hacker won't use ever that btc ,,,, the 21 Millions won't ever exist . Bitcoin Boy . Miners burning 20-30 BTC ? Really ? Your source please... https://blockchain.info/address/1CounterpartyXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXUWLpVr This is a wallet created for miners that burn bitcoin now it have more than 2130 BTC did you think that's not burning and the amount of btc won't reduce ? Best wishes , Bitcoin Boy . Interesting... so what's the purpose ? Why are they burning ? https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Proof_of_burn This is the XCP proof of burn address. Funnny... it seems miners are burning coins to prove loyalty to XCP. The man/men behind XCP might hold the private key of the address. Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: RitzBitzz on May 14, 2015, 10:52:37 PM Yeah not to mention satoshi wallet that he will probably never use.
Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: Pab on May 14, 2015, 10:53:11 PM How long time will take to mine all that 21 mln,diff will rise more
Finally miners will turn off the light and go home Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: BurtW on May 14, 2015, 11:35:37 PM I agree with you , also theirs some miners who always burn their bitcoins I don't know why but they are really burning a lot like 20 - 30 btc and till now i can see some burning wallet that can't be every generated with more than 1000 btc , also theirs some hack cases that the hacker won't use ever that btc ,,,, the 21 Millions won't ever exist . Bitcoin Boy . Miners burning 20-30 BTC ? Really ? Your source please... https://blockchain.info/address/1CounterpartyXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXUWLpVr This is a wallet created for miners that burn bitcoin now it have more than 2130 BTC did you think that's not burning and the amount of btc won't reduce ? Best wishes , Bitcoin Boy . Interesting... so what's the purpose ? Why are they burning ? https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Proof_of_burn This is the XCP proof of burn address. Funnny... it seems miners are burning coins to prove loyalty to XCP. The man/men behind XCP might hold the private key of the address. Nobody has the private key to that address because the private key was never generated. If someone could find the private key to that address then Bitcoin would be broken - and it is not broken. Re-read the proof of burn article I gave you if you want to know why someone would burn BTC to that specific address. Maybe this article will help you understand: http://counterparty.io/news/why-proof-of-burn/ Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: BurtW on May 14, 2015, 11:38:29 PM How long time will take to mine all that 21 mln,diff will rise more Finally miners will turn off the light and go home The last satoshi will be mined some time around 2140. The amount of mining, the difficulty, the number of miners, etc. will not change that by more than one or two years one way or the other unless everyone quits mining (Bitcoin death). Other than that the system will adjust to the amount of mining by design and the rate of BTC production will remain on schedule. Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: RitzBitzz on May 15, 2015, 12:14:49 AM How long time will take to mine all that 21 mln,diff will rise more Finally miners will turn off the light and go home I believe its around 2020. Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: RitzBitzz on May 15, 2015, 12:18:22 AM How long time will take to mine all that 21 mln,diff will rise more Finally miners will turn off the light and go home The last satoshi will be mined some time around 2140. The amount of mining, the difficulty, the number of miners, etc. will not change that by more than one or two years one way or the other unless everyone quits mining (Bitcoin death). Other than that the system will adjust to the amount of mining by design and the rate of BTC production will remain on schedule. where did you get 2140? Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: futureofbitcoin on May 15, 2015, 12:27:01 AM How long time will take to mine all that 21 mln,diff will rise more Finally miners will turn off the light and go home The last satoshi will be mined some time around 2140. The amount of mining, the difficulty, the number of miners, etc. will not change that by more than one or two years one way or the other unless everyone quits mining (Bitcoin death). Other than that the system will adjust to the amount of mining by design and the rate of BTC production will remain on schedule. where did you get 2140? Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: BurtW on May 15, 2015, 12:32:58 AM How long time will take to mine all that 21 mln,diff will rise more Finally miners will turn off the light and go home The last satoshi will be mined some time around 2140. The amount of mining, the difficulty, the number of miners, etc. will not change that by more than one or two years one way or the other unless everyone quits mining (Bitcoin death). Other than that the system will adjust to the amount of mining by design and the rate of BTC production will remain on schedule. where did you get 2140? The correct answer is 2140 (more or less). 2140. Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: BurtW on May 15, 2015, 12:38:06 AM Also a fun estimator as to when the next difficulty adjustment will happen as well as an estimate as to when the next block reward drop will happen is here:
http://bitcoinclock.com/ Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: bryant.coleman on May 15, 2015, 02:36:38 AM Yeah not to mention satoshi wallet that he will probably never use. Hmm... It is possible that the BTC980,000 stored in various "Satoshi" wallets might be lost already. Satoshi was not a financially-motivated individual (or group of individuals). He had ideological reasons to create Bitcoin. In all probability, he is never going to use any of those coins. And we don't even know whether he is alive or not. Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: crazyivan on May 15, 2015, 05:56:39 AM ATM, I think at least 2 mill have already been lost. So total number ll not be over 19 million.
Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: ranlo on May 20, 2015, 07:16:31 AM I agree with you , also theirs some miners who always burn their bitcoins I don't know why but they are really burning a lot like 20 - 30 btc and till now i can see some burning wallet that can't be every generated with more than 1000 btc , also theirs some hack cases that the hacker won't use ever that btc ,,,, the 21 Millions won't ever exist . Bitcoin Boy . I don't get why would you burn your coins, unless you are so rich that you want to shrink the total supply to drive the price up. You wouldn't drive the price up much, if at all. Even if it did raise it, you'd lose MORE burning than you'd earn from the increase, since you now have far less coins. There's no economic benefit of burning coins. Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: thebenjamincode on May 20, 2015, 07:26:52 AM hey i also got the same idea as yours but i just said it in a different way
here is my discussion about it https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1065051 Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: Amph on May 20, 2015, 07:30:07 AM ATM, I think at least 2 mill have already been lost. So total number ll not be over 19 million. i think much more than that, especially from early adopters, those guys were mining a tons, if even few of those lost their coins, a great % will vanish, it was estimated a 30 total loss, i don't remember if it is base don the current amount of coin in circulation or total coins Title: Re: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE Post by: MF Doom on May 20, 2015, 11:34:09 AM One thing that most people don't seem to understand is that after 21 million Bitcoins have been produced, the TOTAL number of Bitcoins in circulation will decrease in a LINEAR fashion each year. Why? Because a consistent number of people (maybe 0.05%) will always - ALWAYS - lose their private keys. This is inevitable. So with the number of Bitcoins DECLINING (after 21 million) and the demand RISING, classical economics tells us that the price will SURGE. a lot have already been "lost". Only thing is there is another 100+ years til 21 mil are in circulation, so this will have no effect on any of us, or maybe not even anyone, hard to say if btc will stick around |
