Bitcoin Forum

Ok, last time when it was at $200 I called a high of $1600 over the next 6 weeks (it only went to $1240). Here is the timeline this time:

June 20: $900
July 4: $1800
July 11: $3600

That next week it will top out near $4000.

So it is written, let it be known.

The bulls are still calling for a July bubble? It's been a while since I read this forum, but I see nothing has changed!  ;D

Funny how the price floor has leveled out and started rising just in time for July as so many have predicted.

Hmm I don't know... that's pretty optimistic but I hope you are right. I wouldn't be surprised to see a bubble relatively soon but we'll see.

It's self-fulfilling stuff: A whale looks at the chart, sees 2-months rally each 8 months, sees that if the patters stays, the next rally should start NOW. So the whale decides to front-run it and buys with his $1M. What matters is whether the market will follow him.

I don't really care if its selffulfilling or not, all I care about is if it happens or not.

If it's self fulfilling by the way, why don't we all just start chanting it will hit 10 million in may 2015?

btc will explode this september, not in july....

(wouldn´t cry if op is right, though... ;))

I hope your magical powers of prediction are as good as you think they are!

Hello.  I was wondering how you got these numbers.  Did you look at the past trends, potential buy/sell orders etc.

he is just guessing.. no body knows..
not even satoshi knows bitcoin will be at this price today..

The numbers are based on the last two rallies. Last February it doubled 5 times, in October it doubled almost 4 times (it would have hit $1600 if it completed the final doubling but the price rose too quickly and it came tumbling down). Each time the first doubling took a month and the next doubling took half the time and on and on.

I predict 3 doubles this time if the trend of less doubling continues. If it rises too quickly expect it to come down before $3600. A slower rise combined with good news like the ETF or something major could take it higher.

So after hitting a peak of around $4000, how low do you think it will fall afterwards? And when will the next bubble after this upcoming one happen?

The lowest it went last time was 4 times where it started from. So even if it crashes, the lowest it would go is around $1800.

Oh, how I would love this to actually happen. It'd be a hell of a birthday gift, hehe. (Nothing like some awesome birthday money!)

But, I have no clue where all of the money would come from. After all, if this were to happen, the influx would have to outpace the needed amount to account for new minted coins. Assuming a 50% outpace, we're talking about $5 million a day growing to $20 million a day.

[Not that I'm saying it can't happen, but I just don't know where this money would come from.]

you are assuming all mined coins get sold - I know for a fact that not all of them do, as I don't sell all the ones I mine. In fact recently I have been acquiring coins rather than selling them.

I agree though that to push the price to a new all time high will require multiples of the new money that came in during October - December 2013, and I so not believe that investments of this scale are feasible until professional money has a reason (and a way) to buy bitcoin. Professional money at the moment is building bitcoin companies not buying coins, and I am not sure what if anything changes that in 2014, or even the first half of 2015.

Overly optimistic.

If bitcoin price stabilize around this level, it will be good for the long term.

/r/dogecoin's optimism is leaking. You guys don't drink that!!  >:(

Actually, I make that assumption based on market volumes in comparison to growth values during the last two rallies. During the last two rallies, one of the really interesting fits was that the growth and pace factors being a function of mintage over a moving average.

But yes, it seems more and more that the money for the next rally has to actually come from actual business investment rather than speculators.

Hey Elwar I am liking your technical analysis and bold predictions, I am assuming you are a trader of other markets not just BTC?

I am perfectly fine with this prediction :p

The OP prediction looks stupid but is perfectly possible.
Looking at last bubble once it goes viral the price hits it's ATH 15-30days after it goes TO DA M00OO00N!!
We are seeing a moon-startup if it follows through you could see somewhat like a 500% increase at the end of next month.

My BTC0.02

I reread the MTGOX chart from year 2010 and below is the high and low tide

I know I'm jumping the gun, but the hard part will be knowing when to sell, ie knowing when we have reached the peak. I'd hate to sell at $4000 & then the price continued to soar. I'm in it for the long term, hoping to eventually cash out if it ever reached maybe $4000 x 10, but still it would be nice to get out & then buy back cheaper.

Just quoting so I'll remember to check how your prediction turns out in two months from now.

Extremely unlikely what you describe, imo, but you're the hero member, so let's see...

I agree with Elwar, perhaps not in the exact time frame but the sentiment is there.

In August 2013 everyone here was speculating how high the next bubble would go, when the reversal was confirmed - estimates from $400 to $600 were common but at the time seemed unrealistic. We all know what happened. 

This shows us that it only takes a few months of the right conditions for new market participants to come in and start pumping. I wish chodpaba would come back, this was a smart person that posted projections about the reversal trend, then they deleted all their posts.

If we see 3600 by july I will shit myself. I'm sorry - i'm bullish on bitcoin in the long run- but there's just too much resistance to see 3600 that soon. Remember, there is going to be MASSIVE resistance near 1k as those who purchased at the last 1k will be cashing out. I don't see anything close to 3600 by july. Just my 2 cents.

there was a large resistance at 100 USD also, after the crash. We finally broke it, no matter what ;)

Most of the weak hands have already taken their ball and gone home. Most of them left within a month when they had bills to pay/Christmas presents that they gambled holding off for a few weeks to get rich.

Oh, and I noticed it is down from almost $550...that is a good thing, it was rising far too quickly to be this early in the rise.

We should be seeing just under 3% rise per day on average...less now and higher later.  Jumping 5-10% per day was too much.

Looking at the Bitcoin exchange rates over the last 24 months, I can tell you with confidence that Bitcoin does not move in small amounts. When it raises, it increases by 20% to 50% in a single day. The same happens when it drops. So the increase of 5-10% a day was nothing unusual.

+1
but a slow rise is much more "healthy"

I've been noticing this as well, and I think it's because of the fear people have instilled in themselves now. Seeing it go from 1200 to 1/3 that in a couple months, seeing it go from 60 to 1200 in a couple months, etc. People now see that it went up a few dollars and start buying in ASAP, and as soon as it starts dropping they dump.

There is no such thing as a healthy rise. Any rise is welcome for me. Only the short-sellers will lose money on a sudden rise. And they need to lose money, at least for spamming this forum with negative news.  ;D

Not even close. We are months - 4-18 months from the next major bubble.

Re: Where is the money going to come from: Everywhere.

The more people use bitcoin the more people hear about it the more new people use it. It spreads like a ring in a pond.

And as for having a "reason" to buy in? To make money, obviously. Different money men make money in different ways, and some of them will do it the same way we do. Just with bigger numbers.

Geez Elwar that's a big prediction, but you have been pretty much on the mark in the past so here's hoping :D

Agreed. Next bubble inflection point vertex February 2015 (if we're lucky), otherwise fall 2015.

I don't think so. In the last weeks there have be plenty of very good news and a larger adoption is right around the corner. It is as if it's an elastic tensed veeeery much. At the release it wil skyrocket fast and violently.

Low volume so far, and the breather we're taking now after just <20% upwards, says differently. Oh, that, and that in this bear market about every major LT indicator gave a bearish signal. It'll take a while to get out of that, I think, but we'll see.

If eBay and PayPal implement Bitcoin this year, that is going to make a huge difference for sure. It may also help spark Amazon and other merchants into jumping on board, further pushing the value (as they become more usable) up.

If my aunt had balls she'd be my uncle.

We are still in bear market, and right now, this upward movement is called a A,B,C wave correction until proven otherwise.

The scenarios I developed have a similar timeframe.
The only serious difference is the top is between 4K and 6K $.
4K is 9x the long term trend now.
6k is 9x the long term trend in two months.

I will start selling at 4k and sell out at 6K.
The major correction should be between 2-3K $.

This without serious economic troubles.
News of some major economic problem (like with Cyprus) would propel the price higher.

April 2013 top would be a 175-180$ without Cyprus and MtGox.

Do you mean that you think it'll fall back to $2-3K after hitting around $6K? I would have thought it would fall lower than that, maybe to around $1500, but I hope you're right & I'm wrong :)
.

Just over $100 rise in the first week. We are right on target.

April 2013 was a 80% correction (thank to the collapse of MtGox) in 90 minutes.
December 2014 was a 66% correction (the total, final correction, was around 70%).

So I believe the next big correction will be between 50 and 66%. The market is larger and the big actors willing to invest will have larger orders at low levels waiting to be filled just in case the price become a great bargain.
I do not think a 75% or an 80% correction have any serious probability to happen.
It would need a very serious pump and dump and without MtGox who would do it?

----

The problem, IMHO, about doing a regression of the price trend is it will not take in account the changes in Bitcoin and Bitcoin ecosystem.
The major change, IMO, is the inflation differential between USD and BTC:
currently the differential is around 5% in favor of the USD, but it is largely compensated by the increase of adoption and demand from new actors entering the ecosystem.
until end 2012, the inflation  rate was > 25% per year for Bitcoin. Come the halving of the reward, it become 12.5% (a bit (10-20%) higher because of always increasing hashing power of the miners).
If you look at the logarithmic chart of the exchange rate, you can trace a line before and after the halving over the lows.
Of these two lines, the second is steeper. Seriously steeper.
This is because the differential of inflation is a lot smaller.

I have doubts the Fed is really tapering the QE. Just moving around the column where it write it.
Or maybe they are just playing bad cop, good cop, with the ECB. The Fed stop QE and the ECB start something to compensate for it. This could explain because Belgium have bought more US Treasury Bonds than its entire GDP in the last few weeks. In essence they are not really stopping QE (inflating the USD and/or € supply).

If indeed inflation of the currency supply is much higher, as actors become aware of this, they will start diversifying from $ and € in limited commodities like gold, silver, bitcoin, whatever govrnment and Central banks can not print in oblivion.

The point of no return will be when the inflation rate of bitcoin will become low enough to always be under the inflation rate of the major currencies (€, $, £, Y, RMB).
People will need to move their currency reserves to bitcoin, just to save their purchasing power.
If you lose 1% every year just not being in Bitcoin and you have millions of USD would you keep all of them or convert a part of them in BTC?
If you lose 1% every year and 20% or 50% because you are not the first to convert them in BTC, how much would you wait?

The next two years, as Andreas Antonopulous foresaw, will be a wild ride. ANd a lot of wealth will be transfered from some to someone else.

That didn't happen with $266 last time.  We blew right through it without stopping.  As if it didn't exist.

everyone bought at 1200 dollars have been out for a long time ,and the left are true believers will not sell at 1200, so i think 1200 is not a problem.

We can't compare fiat and bitcoin inflation. USD inflation is defined in Keynesian meaning - by price index. BTC inflation is defined in austrian meaning - by total number of bitcoins. For user to prefer bitcoin it should have lesser inflation in Keynesian meaning. Which is already there: bitcoin has huge Keynesian deflation because of growing adoption. But there won't be any Keynesian BTC inflation even after BTC will take all the market, because the market itself will grow: World's GDP grows about 6% a year. Therefore BTC's buying power will grow 6%, which is more than BTC's austrian inflation after next halving.

tl;dr bitcoin's inflation rate is already and will always be under fiat's inflation rate.

Check out SlipperySlope's Logistic model spreadsheet on Google Docs.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=366214.0

You specifically want to look at this chart:

https://i.imgur.com/6caTqFr.png&t=540&c=dqa8vCIc9HmZAA

Rpietila and Slippery buy and sell at ±0.4.

Thanks, looks good, though if they'd sold at 0.4 in 2011, it would have been a mistake.

I commend your balls for taking a gamble on the price and I actually do hope you are right
Since it will be a new ATH to look forward too :)

Still right on target.

Almost half way through the month and almost half way through the first doubling.

In 2011 they didn't have the history yet. Now the history gets confirmed more and more each time bitcoin has a peak and trough at 0.4

The first month doubling of $450 to $900:

Half way though, the price has risen $225. $225 to go until June 20.

Right on target.

So far so good Elwar
Keep the estimate up although to be honest I would join you on this
Seems to be the bull cycle although my Peak is a bit lower around $2800-$3200 but we will see

follow your prediction, it is all come true right now, hope you can alwaws right ...to da moon, see you on the 4000 dallors

With the possible adoption by Apple apps, in the following days the uptrend will continue and will trigger many panic buyers who will pump more the value.

apple will try to repeat the napster/itunes stunt. they saw the disruptive success of the p2p technology (napster) and came up with an own non-p2p version and called it itunes. they will come up with imoney soon.

How'd you know?  ;D

http://venturebeat.com/2013/06/06/apple-files-imoney-patent-for-virtual-currency-digital-wallet-and-free-stuff/
http://www.coinmonkey.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/imoney.jpg

9 days to 900 (fingers crossed  ;))

If there is no momentum going into the next phase there would be no way it would jump to $1800 two weeks later.

I still see it rising that high...some stability at this price is good for fueling the rocket.

I just moved more rocket fuel ~300K rmb into BTC China today to prepare for blast-off!!!

With the recent announcements (Yahoo Finance, REEDS jewelers, Expedia, etc.) I can definitely feel the media momentum building surrounding bitcoin.  Because the media is simply a tool for the rich, powerful, and well connected, I feel that an even bigger announcement in the media is on the horizon.  But this BIG news will be held back and expertly timed, after the wave of new fiat starts building bigger momentum and reaches a crescendo.

So the real question is, what will this game-changing headline be?  A Bitcoin ETF going live?  A big name like Amazon or even Google getting into bitcoin in a big way?  The NY State bitlicenses?  Warren Buffett changing his tune and buying bitcoin? (lol, no I don't really see that happening).

the day that winklevoss etf is getting approved, warren buffet will announce a partnership with barry silbert to open an new york based exchange the same week and going all in on bitcoin. one month later they buy amazon and google with the profits they made, while mastercard notifies the public about their new partnership with bitpay.... ;)

Having watched the market's reaction to prior media and exposure events, I'm not so sure that one particular headline is game-changing as much as one event just stands out as the added bucket of water that opens the floodgates - especially when we look at them in retrospect.

Seeing the Expedia, Yahoo, Google news in the week following a noticeable price increase is awesome though.  Should help with consolidation and coiling for the next step.

At this point it feels more like a springed coil
The coil is getting packed tighter and tighter with all this positive news and preparing for a Breakout
So even though this timeline seems off it might end up at the correct point in the end  ;)

Well Elwar we now have tickers
https://www.google.com/finance?q=CURRENCY%3ABTC&sq=bitcoin&sp=3&ei=oIiYU4mkAZLCwAOZiYDYAg
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=BTCUSD=X
And on Bloomberg on the Terminal and soon the main one

4 days to 900$ ?

sounds better than 900 days to $ 4... :D

There is too much resistance at 680/700, reaching 900$ in 9 days seems impossible to me.

waiting for 4000
holding my BTC based on your prediction :P

the bitcoin god will reward this demonstration of faith generously  ;)

well technically the bitcoin god would be a decentralized entity and the only thing that comes close is us.
So the bitcoin community will reward this demonstration of faith generously by buying the price up  ;)

so those poor christians only got this holy trinity, while we have some holy decentralized p2p network going?