Bitcoin Forum

I watched it jump $15 in a minute and a half and it's hitting 500 mark.

What do you think?  :o

I think it was awesome 8)

Yeah, what's the deal with the spike today? Is there some piece of news I am missing, or is it just coincidence?

The whales know something.  Thinking big media news by Thursday!

If you watch the charts it was expected to happen sometime this week or next.  We had finally reached the end of capitulation and it was just a matter of days before we were going to break out.  We have breached the resistance line for the first time since November so we should begin a new bull run up to the next ATH.

It really becomes quite predictable after a while.  ;)

I remember on a random thursday (april 11th) it hit the low of 339
now on a random tuesday its going up.  I guess thats just the way things work.  I think april 11th was in anticipation for a dump (chinese regulation) and now may be some good news to come.

I warned you guys weeks ago. This isn't news driven; we reached the end of the consolidation period. This push up was obvious to anyone with TA skills.

Yay! You don't have to eat your hat! :)

That's what they all say.

This looks like the start of the next bull run to $5000.

Shit's about to go down... or should I say UP! Bears, get your money in before it's too late! TO THE MOON

lol yup :) I don't make a public prediction unless I'm 100% confident.

Resistance lines - is that what the whitishblue and tan lines are? And if so, are they referencing: white = resistance to going up and tan = resistance to going down?

Have you guys started buying or are you just riding up on the panic buys?

Having been through a few bull runs now I have come to learn that the charts are our "friends."  ;)  It takes a while to realize this.  I know this time around I am not shocked.  I posted on another thread that it felt like I was pregnant with a due date.  Now I am finally in labor! This is an analogy only a "chick" can use I know.  ;D

hitting 500$ is not worth feeling good because next morning it might go down to 400$ mark again, if it stabilizes at 500$ mark for next few weeks like it was at 430-440$ till this morning that will be a event worth smiling. :)

OMG please please have octuplets!!!  ;D

The question is, is it actual labor or false labor?

Hahaha poor Bitchickshusband though :(

I could handle several thousand of these "babies!"  ;)

Yeah, obviously this small rise in price means the ATH is at most a week away.

It's torture watching it go: 500, 499, 498, 494, 498, 497, 499, 499, 499, 499  ;D

I didn't realise that. Awesome news.

Hey, it is a start. 

In spite of your sarcasm, a week is probably a little too optimistic.  Looking back it takes several weeks from the start of a bull run to reach the ATH.  I am not sure the exact number of days.  I am sure it is out there somewhere.  But I think 4 more weeks perhaps and it might bounce around the ATH price for a while with some significant sell-offs.  It should be fun regardless. ;)

So let's say this is technically a false start, like a pump/dump (if I understand that correctly) and it shoots up to $599...and then the media sees the jump and starts reporting bitcoin's jump...

What happens next?


(Also, please explain the lines question...trying to learn here, don't know *where* to go to learn this so I ask :) )

And what should they report? "Bitcoin is now worth half of what it used to be!" ?

They will not report anything before the old all time high is broken.

Can I just have you, on record, stating that the price will not stall or go down again until it reaches $1,000 ?

I'm not sure if this necessarily ushers in a new bull run, but this level of volatility hadn't been seen for a while, especially after a fairly quiet period before hand.

I would like to think this is another strong run, but I can't convince myself of that conclusion. That's why I sold a few coins on Coinbase when it hit just over $500.

https://i.imgur.com/E3WdLTB.png
Seems familiar? The pump and dump just ended.

Shite, I sold some YESTERDAY!!!

Will the price fluctuate on it's rise up to $1000?  Of course, so I can't say it won't go down at all, and it might stall for a day or so at each interval but the boring days of $440 are behind us now.  Also, I will say that once we breach $550 we will most likely never see the 400s again.   ;D

It was obviously going to go up, but I did not expect it to spike so suddenly without any positive news. Going down right now.

When the price rises so quickly there is always corrections along the way.  It hit $500 then bounced down a bit but it will pass $500 by the end of the day I believe.  Then the same thing will probably happen at $550 and so on. 

I think so too. By the way, is there an IRC where we people can chat?
It should be able to reach at $500 by end of day, it only barely touched it. It's going up again.

If the price doesn't reach $1,000 by the end of July, will you eat your hat?

By the end of this year it should hit the $1200 mark again, catapulted by the consolidation of interesting start-ups and the cash injection of their VCs  8)

$1200 by the end of the year is a very conservative estimate. 

Yup Jesus, do you expect me to wait a whole weak? Do you think I'm made of patience? ;)

And it DID start on May 19 (at least in the US).  Nice call!

And yet, he predicted the exact day 12 days ago.

No.  We bought at $425, $400, $375 and $350 on the way to the absolute bottom.  This is what you learn after a while.  When Risto starts saying "ROCK BOTTOM", it means if you are smart you start buying right then.

I just sold my last pair of cloth to go all-in. Price will land on the moon, right?

Thank you, BitchicksHusband, for that nice bit of wisdom! I really need to make a mental note about Risto.

Actually, it's typically about 2-3 months from the reversal to the next ATH. 

If it's like before then first, we should start going up about $50 a week ($200 a month).

Then, after about 2 months of that (which takes us to about $900), we explode to the next ATH in the crazy stratosphere of probably $5000-$6000 ish.

Then, we will drop to around 1.5× the old ATH with a low around $1800 or so.

Of course, past performance is no guarantee of the future, but that's what would happen if it were.

Well, he DOES have a castle in Estonia, so I'm going to listen to him over all these broke so-called experts.

I mean, it's like trying to get marriage advice from a divorced guy.  Think about it.  Wouldn't you rather ask the guy who's been married for 50 years?

I recommend you read Taleb's "Fooled by Randomness" to understand why this is sort of thinking is generally a bad idea.

Ever heard of survivorship bias?

I quietly watch Risto, He has a great wealth of info.

I try to spend a little time listening to the divorced guy.  He has made mistakes and can alert you to the pitfalls that you may be able to avoid.

So, you're saying I should ask the divorced guy and the poor fools on here that made $200 on a day trade and now think they're the emperor of bitcoin?  Uh, no thanks.

No, I think you are creating a strawman. I'll leave it at that, you do seem fond of your current knowledge.

Blitz is actually correct here. Look up survivorship bias as he advises.

I did.  I'm missing the application.  Connect the dots for all of us.

The way I see it, buy and hold IS survivorship, and that's the key to making money in bitcoin.

ITT: a buncha wrong people.

The rise is nice, (I'll admit I get the warm fuzzies thinking about my holdings magically accruing such value in the span of a day) but without at least 2 charts and some seriously charming metaphors, all TA is inferior to MatTheCat's.

In case you missed it, MTC does not see sunshine farts and rainbows.

He sees sideways movement for quite awhile yet.

With our brothers in China waking up from a long night's sleep, let's see if they can push the price over and above $500 a coin...

Hoboi and OKCoin already breached 3000 again (after going back under while stamp went under $500) so I think it's pretty likely. At least they closed the gap with stamp.

I dont understand, I though its a full ban for china? Why is hoboi and okcoin still active?

I do not think it was ever banned.  I thought that they just basically crippled the relationship with banks, that worked with the exchanges (making it harder for yen to flow into the exchanges).

Those exchanges could probably get 3rd party deposits (similar to btc-e)
Is my thinking correct? or am I wrong somewhere?

how unwise is it to take up a loan to buy some coins now?

When someone bans something they just make it more popular, because it is shown in the news, tv, etc.. anyway china is not everything for bitcoin, there are many whale investors from other parts of the globe.

Depends on what you need it for. If you are going to change it to USD, I suggest you don't take a loan. You're a newbie anyway, you won't get a loan unless you have collateral.

I think that 3th part deposits were forbidden with the first chinese ban, back in 2013.

Sadly btc price hit the 500 wall like a ball thrown into a concrete wall:(
Hope he can climb that mark soon.

I think he's asking about getting a loan offline..!

If you mean get a fiat loan, thats fine if you think BTC will go up. If you mean get a BTC loan its only wise if you think BTC will go down.

Anyone else notice that Thursdays seem to be action days for Bitcoin?

After yesterdays rally - We could be taken to $550 or massive dump back to $450 either way will be interesting  :)

I heard that something about major buys or dumps on thursdays (of course its just hear-say) but lets see what happens tomorrow.  my guess is same slow steady uptrend (might cross 500)

It is always a bad time to use debt to invest, never do it.

If you have near-zero equity en low earning power but for some reason do have a significant credit line it can be beneficial to do this but only if you don't have ethical objetions to defaulting on your loan-suppler and declaring bankruptcy if things turn south (objections I personally would have).

huh?? the entire stock market run up since ZIRP was fueled by that practice

I have experience of this and just because of this now I never good in my life because this debit is rising day by day and I am going down day by day my tip is never do this

I used to wonder why the same thing I bought the year prior was now raised (like a dollar or two).  Minimum wage is always rising.  I think it has to, just to keep the same value it once did. 

Isn't it wise to use debt to invest if you know you can pay it off if shit hits the fan? For example instead of selling one assets such as silver to buy btc, use debt to buy btc and now you have double the amount of assets working for you and if bitcoin fails then you sell your silver to pay off the debt and it's accumulated interest.

Considering the risk/reward ratio with bitcoin, i think it's a bet worth taking.

and if you have 0% to no interest loans then you can always rollover to another one and just pay the service costs

Love Thursdays  ;D

Anyone thinking we'll be around $500 for a while?

Who doesn't? I think that with some luck, we will be able to get to at least $600.

Yeah hopefully Byt GL mate!

sub$500 looks unlikely - I think we're in for some sideways $500 action. Don't know how long that will last though (6 days?)

What would you pay for a guaranteed share of possibly the biggest innovation since the internet itself? What are you risking? What's the reward?

Yeah hit it dude.

where are all the haters thread now?

fudders that wanted cheap bitcoin i guess? lmao

Only invest what you can afford to lose.

If you are borrowing to do it, you can't afford to lose.  (As much as I joked about taking a $10,000 0% line of credit on one of my credit card offers if the price went down to the $100s, I seriously wouldn't do it.  I don't borrow to invest.)

That said, I DID borrow against my 401k to invest, but I consider that OK for the following reasons:

1. I have it covered by my outstanding vacation should I lose my job
2. I am paying interest to myself, not somebody else, so it's not a loan in the traditional sense.  In fact, I make MORE money every month.
3. I want to invest a percentage of my "retirement" in bitcoin (retirement in quotes because I plan to retire this year but I can't touch that money for decades) but there is simply no other way to do it

Please don't borrow to invest.  Bitcoin could still easily go to zero.

All sensible stuff there my BTC friend. Looking to retire this year but cant touch the money for decades, must be doing pretty well for yourself there.

The bottom line in all of this is BTC is not a golden bullet, dont risk what isnt there.

so its already up500$ for almost a day now..! what do you think will it stay +500$ or will it crash like it did last month after recovering to 550$ from 420$ to going back to 430$ within a week or so..!
I hope it stays up and rise further.... lets see if it hits ATH in next few months..

reaching $600 next week, then drop back but no less than 500.

I have mixed feelings about it.
I would like to buy more under 500.

Really? But what really are the chances of it going to zero, im quite curious what realistically could happen that would kill it so much. But i suppose i could scout other threads for this.

Thanks for that.

I know we probably don't see all things completely eye to eye, but it's good to see that one of the big optimists in here (which I'd say you are) is giving fair advice to the newcomers.

The rule really is: "don't invest what you can't afford to lose".

What exactly you "can afford to lose" depends on your income, age, family situation, etc. But a large loan that could ruin you if Bitcoin price goes drastically down, or just stagnates for years, is pretty much never something you can afford.

Realistically - nothing. However, there are many unrealistic scenarios, from a meteor destroying the Earth, through an EMI killing internet and all power structures throwing us back into stone age, to quantum computers appearing out of nowhere so the devs don't have several hours to switch the algo, allowing someone to decypher arbitrary PKs.

It depends what the alternatives are. If that were the only means I had to buy some BTC, I might consider it. But only if there were no other alternative. And NEVER (AND I MEAN NEVER) do leverage. 

It doesn't have to go to exactly 0 to be relatively worthless. As long as the bitcoin network and the internet exist there will always be people willing to pay a few $, but bitcoin dropping to something like $5 would still mean its end.

What is your logical basis for this statement? Can he afford to pay the terms of the loan if bitcoin fails? Can he afford to consequences of not being able to repay the loan if bitcoin fails? I understand you have a rule that disallows this. You must recognise, it is arbitrary.

If you could comfortably afford to do something, you wouldn't have to borrow to do it in the first place. He's right.

Then you should've done that last week  ;D

Hope now its going to stay on this figure for some time

Just to add this - I've made a few purchases since learning about bitcoin and coming here to learn/crash course...but for newer ones than me, keep in mind you don't have to pay full market price for a whole bitcoin. You can buy $50 a week or check or whatever amount you want and it's also going to 1. accumulate and 2. increase/decrease value same as the whole one setting the rate.

Agreed, lots of people seem to think they they have to sell the house and buy every BTC their money will get them, rather than spending a small amount every couple of days when the money because spare to them.

zomg it finally hit 575!

I left the laptop on and set it on the floor when I went to bed. I had the bitcointicker site up. I woke up oddly for no apparent reason at some point during the morning and saw $577 and smiled, went back to sleep and when I got up, the first thing I thought was I dreampt that...it's probably 499 but nope...it's been in the 560s to 570s all day so thanks to whoever's making that happen.

Thank you for reiterating. I'm still looking for a logical basis for the statement. I'm not disagreeing with the premise of not investing what you can't afford to lose. I'm disagreeing with borrowing being some magical exclusion. If he can afford to repay the loan if btc crashes, then borrowing to buy btc is something he can afford.

I don't agree. You can borrow with collateral if you rather continue to own the collateral than sell it and think the interest paid is reasonable to be able to do so.