Bitcoin Forum

Buy orders on Cryptsy have been chewed up dramatically in past couple of days as Bitcoin gets a bounce.

There appears to be no resistance for Dogecoin heading downward. I can't help but feel bad for the Dogecoin holders. It doesn't seem fair that so many tippers and so much of a community cannot support the coin's market cap, however, it shows how important big time investment money actually is to a coin. A loveable community only goes so far in the world of finance and global currency. Doge is in peril.

ASICS coming out are going to destroy litecoin and dogecoin IMHO. For miners, these coins are only alternatives to getting more bitcoin and everyone is starting to realize that.

No destruction, not due to asics.

What we're seeing is the last of the sell pressure on Bitcoin evaporating, with people liquidating their alts to sell at these levels.

Why would this be the last of the sell pressure on bitcoin evaporating???

You are suggesting that everyone left after this downturn is in Doge for the long haul??

Please elaborate

I'm not sure I understand your logic there. Liquidating = selling. Liquidating to sell? I've never seen or heard anyone say that before. Could you be suggesting the liquidation of alts to sell BTC? That just doesn't make sense either. One is not in any way related to the other.

On the other hand, liquidating alts to *buy* BTC is another matter altogether.

I agree with the original post. ASICs will only accentuate that trend as it is the most cost effective way of entering into or further building a BTC position. The ASICs will destroy any ASIC compatible altcoin as they mine those coins into oblivion by immediately "liquidating" their altcoin mining proceeds in order to buy BTC.

It's as simple as supply and demand. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=557086.0

Liquidating alts into BTC to sell for fiat.  Seen this happen many times when BTC rises.

Ever heard of difficulty?

The community of DogeCoin should pressure for new features, especially anonymity. Otherwise DogeCoin has no competitive advantage and will gradually decline.

I've got a simpler answer the few that were trading Doge back and forth with each other took that capital some where else, because when high powered retail ASICs arrive that is the equivalent of then giving money away.


I think they moved it to Dark, which tells me few have X11 ASICs we will know by looking at the hash rates.

This is not the end of the world  or alts.

Doge was started as a joke and will end like one.

Have faith in Doge!!

Doge is...well....Dogeshit.

I think the handful of whale's that still are holding Doge are jumping ship. The order book just got completely obliterated since my original post.

Trying to unload even 50 BTC in Doge will destroy the price, completely and totally. I know some moderately large holder is about to pull the trigger. I think it is gonna be capitulation to All time low coming shortly.

I am watching Doge/BTC on Cryptsy more than Bitcoin on bitcoinwisdom. for some reason watching destruction play out live is morbidly fascinating.

I agree that as bitcoin starts to pickup steam from the bottom of a dip people will sell alts to get in on it.

If btc has another huge rally though at some point all the new money coming in starts to trickly down to alts and they become very profitable again.

This is my experience from last time as well as my interpretation of the graphs.


As for DOGE I think it's a little overpriced, but at the same time it's built on a community that is highly emotionally invested in it and that is not a small thing.

I would actually say that DOGE would survive a 51% attack much better than LTC for example because LTC is full of investors who will throw it away if it stops performing, there's so many other options.

The DOGE community will stick with it no matter what happens, DOGE will never win, but it kind of can't lose either because it's not really competing like all the other coins.

And in some weird way that makes it strong it it's own right.

I think Doge can win if it is still relevant 1 year from now when only inflationary mining is happening.  i just am not sure it will survive

But how would it die?

No altcoin that's on major exchanges will EVER die, even if the devs abandon it, other people will take over and fork it.  The most obscure shitcoins from a year ago are still going strong.

dogecoin is dying , just look at the hashrate


http://imgur.com/nmGT3lu

Worse yet! (and, yes, understood, that makes sense, but, as I said, that's worse yet, and further undermines your argument).


To that I reply what may sound like an idiotic ever heard of ASIC? Really, flound, I can't believe I'm hearing this from one of the most important pool operators around. ASIC cuts scrypt power costs by what? Over 900%? Said another way, ASIC mining variable costs are 1/10 that of GPU mining? (That's just to throw out low-ball figures - the high end is around 1/20th the cost, so get ready.) "Ever heard of difficulty?" Are you serious? At a 1/10 cost to mine, difficulty could rise 10 fold and the ASICs would still be profitable!!!! Where do you think the widely distributed user base and secure network will be by then? 99% of scrypt coins are currently NOT PROFITABLE using GPU, *ALREADY*, and price isn't rising. Why do you think that is happening? You think those coins will be able to recover after the ASIC demolition? You're dreaming pal. As soon as they go back to profitable for the ASIC, those same ASICs will be back like zombies. The position you are arguing is untenable, and your argument (or lack of as it were) only more clearly reveals that fact. As I said, I can't believe I'm hearing this from you. I can only guess that you must have a very strong predisposition that needs to be reinforced at whatever cost. In any event, let's promise to get together and talk about this again once diff has risen by 1000% (you and the handful of ASICs still mining on Multipool  ;) ).

I honestly hoped DOGE could keep breathing a bit more. While the coin itself was a total joke, it had a few things to teach to others. LTC in particular still didn't get the lesson and probably will never do. Personally I will remember DOGE for a while, even though I never owned one, nor mined it.

I'm not sure what you're trying to say.  Difficulty adjustment ensures a constant supply of coins no matter what the network hashrate is.

Yes, you'll need an ASIC to mine scrypt efficiently, you pretty much do right now.  Just because people have ASICs does not mean that more coins per day will magically be produced.  The production rate will be the same as it is now.  Some (One?) scrypt coin(s) still have slow difficulty adjustments, which means that the hashrate of those coins will most likely start swinging violently every few days until a faster adjustment is implemented.  Still, I can't see LTC getting caught in a difficulty trap unless most of the dedicated hash on it drops off and I just don't see that happening.

Yep.

I don't think you know what you're talking about.  ASIC coming out will cause a scrypt holocaust with possibly Litecoin as the only survivor, maybe a few PoS coins too just like how Peercoin still survives in the BTC network.  KNC, Ghash, etc, will all be building scrypt ASIC farms and the amount of hash power and size of network will start to rival that of BTC.  Once that occurs, in a rational world, the price of LTC should increase, while BTC goes down, but I think both will probably go up due to the upward pressure BTC has as first in the business.

Anybody can own scrypt asics, not just big mining farms. The new asics will still be as evenly distributed as they are now when the faster ones will be released this summer, because KNC and the others would profit more by selling their miners than by mining with them.

Could you enlighten us as to just how you think Litecoin might be an exception, being a scrypt coin itself? What objective data might you see to argue that exception?

Because the Litecoin hash rate will dwarf that of the other coins to the point where it only takes 1% of LTC hash to move somewhere else to fork other coins that compete with it.  At this point, there will be no big money in any of these other coins due to how insecure they are.  This is already starting with Dogecoin now.  Coins like Worldcoin, Digitalcoin, Digibyte, etc will all be obliterated to a much worse extent, it's only a question of how long.

Spend some time doing the math. You might save a lot of time and money. The vast majority of ASIC miners will never, read my lips, NEVER make ROI.

The only people who will make money on this "scam" are the ASIC manufacturers.
. . . ahem, charging in BTC, and then (for obvious reasons since the raw materials, fixed and variable production costs, etc., etc., are paid in USD) selling that BTC for USD . . .


You're better off simply buying BTC, and forgetting about trying to mine altogether.

 . . . unless you're mining and buying one of the altcoins of the future that hold true to the crypto ethic . . .

This is false.  People ROI with antminers and other equipment all the time, it's mostly preorders getting burned.  Many people are even starting to ROI gridseeds that bought them early.

when the price will be too prohibitive for normal customers, only few will mine with them, like what happened with btc asic

As you said, those "that bought early" have a decent chance - 6 to 10 months average - and with that select group, my statement COULD turn out to be false.

However, I'm referring to "the vast majority", and that obviously includes all those buying now and in the future. ASIC may be "profitable" today on a current data, simpleton, straight line projection analysis, but, unfortunately for those buying now and in the future, the difficulty to mine will increase exponentially in line with the introduction of mass use of ASIC. Forget it. It'll be all over by September - ASIC won't even be profitable on a simple variable cost only basis by then - much less factoring in a return on your hardware investment!

back to 30 satoshi, then reverse

That's true only for the people that sell instantly. Mining and holding may very well be profitable in the long-term.
Of course, simply buying and holding the coin might be more profitable, but that does not give the satisfaction of protecting the network of a coin you like.

And some machines offer 1mh/s for only 140$, which is quite affortable for everyone; mining centralisation is not a threat yet imho.

For now Litecoin wins indeed, but this may very well change, because Litecoin basically offers nothing new over BTC, and its community is not as good as that of many of its competitors.

Do you actually believe this? There are many coins with a passionate dev group and a longer history than Dogecoin that will never ever be anything more than bits on a hard drive, nothing more than an archive of broken dreams and lost promise.

Dogecoin can drop so low in volume and market cap that it will never draw the interest of anyone anywhere. If it does, you will not revive that dead shibe.

You can't kill the passion and energy of tens of thousands of shibes; Dogecoin will not die.

The hashrate is down because the block reward halved.

And it's been quite stable, considering the recent drop in value; that's encouraging.

I agree with the bolded part above.

Those coins never made it onto major exchanges.  Or maybe any exchanges.

Just being on a major exchange (i.e. Cryptsy, Bter, BTC-E, etc.) gives a coin value.

Yes, coins can be delisted but it's an extremely rare occurrence and normally they are added back once any issues are cleared up.

Doge problem is its holders are sheep, and one rule of the market; the sheep always get slaughtered.

And what in your opinion makes them sheep?
Imo, the sheeps are the one who buys a coin simply because it is the most established one (Bitcoin - I do hold a few of course but not only because it is the most mainstream), and those who buy to follow the market manipulator's pumps (Auroracoin and countless others).

While doge looks like a survivor, the simple fact is that Too Many Coins dooms it to a low value relative to BTC.  I don't think it is anything more complicated than that.  With the recent rise in BTC prices the fiat value of doge is not down that dramatically, though it is clearly down.

Due to its community, doge remains a good gateway coin for people new to crypto, but a pretty poor investment due to Too Many Coins.

Good Luck!

Doge is screwed, mining is down, price dropping, gimmick is over.

I don't see why scrypt Asics will ruin litecoin, though (as mentioned above). The difficulty will just rise quckly, as it did with Bitcoin. Not so long ago people on BTC.-e were blaming Asics for the $65 bitcoin. Soonafter, it was $1300 on Gox (okay, it was a pump, and would have seen people serve time in a regulated market).

LTC is still Queen, BTC still King. There are some interesting minor coins, too. Forget DRK, it will follow Doge.

Dimecoin is the next coin to take off, It is the most undervalued coin on the market given its algo. No kidding, that's why I got involved with it. Plus, the developer is as honest as they come. A very good sign.

The Alts are entering a new paradigm, very few will survive, the new game is pump for a week, then die.

A committed developer is the only defence any altcoin has against oblivion.

Yes, the committed Doge guys are a little bit easily led  :P

And by who are they led? Please elaborate.

This is correct.  However there is a fairly aggressive halving schedule, so this problem should take care of itself over the long run.  The community is still strong.

It's also worth noting that if DOGE can somehow decouple itself from BTC, it wouldn't be dependent upon it anymore. This would be a huge change and could mean great things for the coin. The question is whether or not it'll happen. With such a big community backing it and some crazy marketing ideas, it's possible (though it will still be tough).

I missed this before . . . sorry.

You're not sure what I'm "trying to say"? It's pretty clear if you stay with what I said and don't unnecessarily clutter the subject. Why would you want to unduly complicate and confuse by introducing irrelevant comments like "more coins per day will magically be produced" or "difficulty adjustment ensures a constant supply of coins no matter what the network hashrate is"? What do either have to do with what I was saying?

If you want to understand, you need to limit your comprehension efforts to what was said, and that was:

EXTREMELY LOWER ENERGY RELATED MINING COSTS = LOWER PRICES (unless everyone is holding long term  :D )

That's it in a nutshell. Don't convolute the issue. Forget about hashrates and difficulty. Use the scientific method and change only one independent variable at a time = try calculating profitability using 1/10 to 1/20th the former cost of electricity. Do that before trying to get cute.

Start calculating from that base, and then, later, you can continue on towards more 'complicated' calculations like: how low could price go before the ASICs are no longer profitable? I'll give you a very direct hint on that one: at today's price, diff, hashrate, etc., (holding all other variables constant - all other things being equal, as they say in layman's terms), DOGE could fall to .00000005 - 0.00000010 and the ASICs would still be profitable on a variable cost only basis (ALL OTHER THINGS BEING EQUAL), and you can bet they'll be mining 'till they drop' as they do everything they can to eke out whatever return they can before turning into very costly paperweights.

BTW, now you'd be prepared to change other variables, like, for example, hashrate (which would directly effect dependent variables, which in this case would be difficulty, which, in turn, keeps production relatively constant as you assert, correct?) Double the hashrate, and now you've got a lower ASIC profitability range of 10 to 20 satoshi, quadruple the hashrate and that lower range turns into 20-40, etc., etc. As I said in the post that you chose to unnecessarily complicate, difficulty would rise proportionately with hashrate . . .

Now, here's what's complicated (apart from being able to close your eyes and visualize a rotating cube): normally, price would rise with rising hashrate, rising difficulty and decreasing production (caused by another independent variable which is reward 'halving'). Why is that not happening?

That is where I left you in the post that you had difficulty understanding. Why is that dynamic turned upside down? Is it that the answer to that question is not suitable to your preconceived notions? Is it that the answer is not in line with your agenda? Is this the complication that upsets your applecart? Might this be what you are not sure about and what drives you to turn a relatively simple equation into a tortuous and obtuse labyrinth?

P.S. Kind of glad that I missed your original response so that I could bring this very simple but very undesired reality back front and center, since, by the look of things, a lot of people are still scratching their heads.

I still don't get this.. When there will be only 5 billion coins produced per year, and a demand that's sufficient to buy them, how can the fact that ASICs are still profitable even at a lower price influence what people will pay for the coins? That seems to me like good news, since it mean that even in a crash, the network could still remain secure.

I'll conclude that you've done the math and that your question goes beyond and builds upon the basic 'givens' outlined above.


Your phrase "there will be only 5 billion coins produced per year, and a demand that's sufficient to buy them" suggests to me that you believe that demand will be greater than supply (you are giving more weight to potential demand when using the word "sufficient" and less weight to potential supply when using "only"). That's a major assumption you are making, and the kind of assumption professionals term as "imposing your expectations on the market".

Only the market knows what is "sufficient" and what isn't. The market will tell us in no uncertain terms, and it does so everyday in merciless fashion to those who impose their own expectations on the market.

"What people will pay" is another expression often used by participants who are caught in the trap of imposing their beliefs on the market, and is accompanied by other similar phrases like, "it's not rational", "it's obviously worth more", etc., etc. What people may or may not be willing to pay has nothing to do with price. Price is determined by supply and demand, and all we can do is speculate about what price may do in the future; hence, the need to be as objective as possible and to screen your data as thoroughly as possible as well. Remember, people always want to get the best 'deal' they can, regardless of the 'value' they actually assign to what is being purchased.


Your "good news" that the network will still be secure even in a crash only goes so far: until the end of ASIC profitability, when everything goes dark (because the widely distributed user base will have long before been destroyed) and the coin breathes its last breath (and there's absolutely nothing that says that LTC is an exception either, or even BTC for that matter, longer term).

Miners will mine until it becomes unprofitable to do so, yes.  However the 'unprofitable' threshold changes with every new generation of asics.


Supply and demand means exactly that the price will be whatever people are willing to pay.

You got one side of the equation anyway . . .


Pick and choose what suits you . . . the hallmark of a hollow position.



How about trying to answer the main question? You know, the one that confused you? https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=621383.msg6908763#msg6908763


DoN'T WoRRY iF You CaN'T. i'LL LeaVe You aLoNe. DoN'T MaKe a PRaCTiCe oF BaNGiNG MY HeaD aGaiNST THe WaLL aNYWaY.

And what people are willing to sell at.

People are willing to pay $10 for a Lambo but dealer wants $200k, it's not worth $10 now.
People are willing to pay $200k but Lambo dealer wants $200k, it's worth $200k.

It requires both parties.

Like I said, the answer is difficulty.  Energy efficiency goes up 10x?  So does difficulty, maybe more.  Tell me, how much more energy efficient is a 1TH Bitcoin miner using 1400W vs. a GPU that does 1GH @ 250W?

Now, what was the bitcoin difficulty the last time mining on GPU was profitable?  What was the price?

You're talking about an illiquid market.  In a liquid market, price moves with supply and demand.  Coin markets, especially for the more popular coins, will be getting more and more liquid as time goes on.

If nobody was willing to buy a Bitcoin at $50 right now, it would be worth less than $50. That's just the demand part. If people don't want to supply at $50, it's not worth $50. In either case, it requires both parties to agree on an equilibrium; not just one.

That would be an illiquid, irrational market.

Liquidity and rationality are two different things.