Bitcoin Forum

Next will be 1.9 Billion jump?

Yep, the exponential growth in mining hashrate is going to continue, driven by the rising BTC price and easy availability of 1+ TH machines.

1 TH is the new 1 GH

Soon 1 PH will be the new 1 TH.

Network hashrate of 1 exahash by xmas?

next wave of hashing power will be good for bitcoin.
it means the watts/GhS ratio will drop.   

I think this is unlikely unless the BTC price dramatically increases and stays there (at which point less efficient mining makes sense). To get from 75 PH/s to 1 EH/s requires a 13.3x increase in the next 221 days. That's a 1.1178% increase per day. That's a little over a 15% difficulty increase every difficulty change for the next 18 difficulty changes. Even pretty irrational miners can't afford this sort of depreciation!

Actually it may not.Hardware manufacturers will develop more efficient and high hashing power capable chips.So all together we will see miners the same size as they are now but with much more hashing power for that time being..Like dual core cpus are more smaller than most of the single core ones but the processing power is twice or more.

I can run an S1 up until about 66 billion at current btc prices. Or an S2 up til 160 billion. Wake me up when we get there.

Of course if the BTC price keeps going up then more miners can afford larger hashing capacities and existing miners will keep seeing a positive return - both will drive the difficulty up much quicker again.

Current network hashrate is about 74.8 PH/s (https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty), and we need to have about 1300% increase to reach that EH/s mark.

IMO, it is not easy to hit that by xmas (~18% increase every time).
My own speculation is that we will reach EH/s in Jan 2015 (with ~15% increase every time on average).  :)

I agree with you.  It is impossible to reachy EH/s by Christmas.  My guess is that we will reach EH by December 25 2014,

Take these factors into account.
- new tech with lower kW to TH/s ratio
- large hosted miners need to not only stay mining as a money making venture but expand
- USA temps about to start dropping end of Sept, so cooling costs will drop / allow more miners running in a house
- home miners have invested a serious amount of money into their home mining ops, so if they stop expanding with the diff, many will go bankrupt, and on that note
- more home miners are moving their gear to hosted facilities allowing them to expand beyond the supply restrictions of their homes, rather than settle for what they have, and watch their incomes decline every 14 days
- companies like BITMAINTECH have started a trend now to lower their prices in parallel with the increasing difficulty etc, so a 1 TH/s miner for example, running at say 0.5kW - 0.8kW could be worth as little as $1000 by Oct - Nov.
- home mining is still based on irrational business behaviour rather than good business sense, so its best when trying to work out where the Diff peak is, not to crystal ball based on what is rational, but rather what is the point where its physically impossible to continue mining.

So its possible to get to 1 EH/s by the end of the year, whether its probable, well will leave that to the crystal ball.