Bitcoin Forum

Just thought I'd drop in my tuppence worth of speculation - I can't put this in the Economics section because I haven't made 5 posts yet.
I wanted to guess where the bitcoin price was going to bottom out during this apparent correction we've been going through since ~Jan 10th. Looking at a few previous corrections, I made a table:

Date	Days	Correction Price	Correction Size
24/07/2010	203	$0.055	39%
10/11/2010	309	$0.2	60%
05/04/2011	454	$0.65	41%
17/11/2011	676	$2.25	93%

Based on the approximate correction minimums here:
http://imageupper.com/s02/1/2/A13284510731076063_1.jpg

Now, obviously the floor price goes up every time - it goes from 5.5 cents, to 20 cents, to the latest floor price of ~$2.25. So what's the next bottom going to be? Well, if you take the previous floors and plot against date, you get this:

http://imageupper.com/s03/1/4/K13284513991072350_1.jpg

I've added a polynomial fit in excel, not because I think that represents the best function for the data, but it's quick and gave a good R2.
We can now make a rough guess as to the next floor price. If I guess that price is going to bottom out on 1st April, then using this fit, I estimate a floor price of $3.15. Great. Probably totally wrong of course, but we'll have to wait and see...

I added a linear and a power series fit type as well, just to see what they predict:

	date	days	Linear	Polynomial	Power
Next Correction Prediction	01/04/2012	810	$2.50	$3.15	$4.30

Will be interesting to see if you are correct.

Interesting point ure making...
floor-calculation could be an quiet good market-grow-indicator
but you got only 4 basisdata and im not shure, if the first (and the second) increases of value were already behaving like normal market. i think a few floors later, it could be quiet close to the real bottom.
clould you please explain your graph more? (1E-0.5 means e^(-0.5)?, whats R^2 for?)
am i right: you made a graph through this 4  floors and you will continue the graph until the 5th floor, and you say the prize will be 3.15, but why do you expect the floor on 1 march?

http://imageupper.com/s03/1/4/K13284513991072350_1.jpg
if you look at the nuber days between the recent floors: looks quiet exponential, means 5th floor should be in about 100 days...
do you think that if the prize gets close to your line, ther'll be a bottom?


forum moderator: pls move this thread into economics ->speculation

R^2 = coefficient of determination. Google it  ;)

April 1st is just a guess - using the fitted function, the earlier the bottom occurs, the lower it is.

The E is a power of ten, not the natural log, e.

Impressive post captain Howdy!  Do you trade equities or any derivatives because you sure have a good technical understanding of charts?

Well, we're at your predicted floor today.  It will be interesting to see how it goes.