Bitcoin Forum

http://www.btcfeed.net/speculation/why-bitcoin-will-not-go-to-1000/ (http://www.btcfeed.net/speculation/why-bitcoin-will-not-go-to-1000/)

What do you guys think? Will it go past or no.

TO DA MOON

Is my answer to that ;)

Are there actually any good resources/posts/articles determining the price from some kind of actual vaguely scientific economic perspective?

e.g. if bitcoin has X use as a currency, it will be valued as Y... etc... and preferably with comparisons to today's usage and growth rate (i.e. actual -facts- rather than percentages pulled out of the air). What its underlying value is as opposed to what stupid heights speculators may drive it to.

It would be nice to get a compilation of such thoughts/articles.

...

from my purely unscientific perspective, it'll surely go way past $1000, the only question is when. This year, next year, or the next decade?

The Winklevoss twins did some calculations and said that Bitcoin is supposed to be in the ten thousands range.
Here, this article on CNBC talks about the Winklevoss twins stating that the price is supposed to be atleast 100 times what it is now.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101190181 (http://www.cnbc.com/id/101190181)

I believe this is a sore subject for legacy financial gurus.  They can't apply some billshit theory or formula to give accurate assessments or predictions and this instills skepticism and wariness. 

I think it's gonna go past the moon.

i don't think there's going to be another markus/willy... unless something crazy like a country adopts or it gets legit mainstream acceptance like with visa/mastercard and stuff

but 1000$ is not unreasonable.

Nonsense.

If were basing bitcoin's utility and valuation on one bot that purchased roughly $112MM, than we're very shortsighted. If you think Bitcoin's utility will one day be comparable to that of only PayPal and nothing greater, than the price would still climb to more than $1,200. And that's an incredibly conservative estimate.

http://heavy.com/tech/2013/12/how-much-bitcoin-worth-value-btc/

stop this willy crap already

+1

It's more annoying than the China FUD, but at least it's not having much effect on price because those who are competent understand that it shouldn't.

This only means that there will be no resistance at $1000 when we get there

If gold drops to 1K again that will form a major resistance to bitcoin going over 1k. Just like last time it topped out near gold parity.

Various methods have been tried but none of them are particularly helpful. However, it is quite  sobering to think that the 500th biggest company in the world (a Mexican Bank I have never heard of) has a market cap of 19.5Bn which is 2.5 x the value of all the bitcoins in the world.

http://www.ft.com/indepth/ft500   (http://www.ft.com/indepth/ft500)

From that article: "if Bitcoin took the place of every Paypal transaction" "it would be worth $6905"

And then we have other articles saying Bitcoin will soon overtake PayPal:
http://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/news/bitcoin-set-overtake-paypal-2014/2014/05/25

And yet, Bitcoin is not being valued anywhere near $6905. What gives? Which of these articles are nonsense?

It's nice to think about anyway :D

Bitcoin is the most under-valued asset on any financial market

I don't have to read that article to know that the future is unknowable. I remember reading stories about how it is impossible for bitcoin to ever be worth $1. It's a silly thing to say now that we have even been past that 1K figure.

Bitcoin is really undervalued right now, the next bubble will throw the value around 3000$+ and won't be the last one.

Well from our mouth to the Bitcoin God's ears  ;D

Will make quadruple my $2 in my wallet Ha Ha Ha ;D

Who will wanna buy Bitcoins at $3000?

I will. The price is irrelevant to me. When I buy on the internet I use BTC. I will need a steady supply forever at whatever price.

Seeing as BTC is the first thing to have a truely limited supply... people have no idea how amazing this is.  Many think they do by comparing it to gold, or tulips but the second those words leave their mouth you know they have no idea what power an actual limited supply means.  Limited by code is the key part, if it is limited by people it is not limited.  Never has there been anything with a limited supply ever...  the BTC bugs have decided they love BTC...

BTC over time will continue to funnel into hands that refuse to sell for a shitty price, pending the complete failure of SHA.. BTC will reward the hodlers with balls.

Do some real thinking about what will happen to something that has a limited supply over 20 years that people want, fear not the heavy dips.

You'll be buying bits, or satoshis.

333 bits for a dollar? That's a freakin' steal!

I'd put some bits on 1 bit will be worth 1 USD before 2030.

My understanding - which is possibly incorrect and if so, please correct - is that the price of btc was around $900-$1100 just prior to the Gox failure. Was the rate of rise leading to the $1100 point considered a bubble? If so, what price range had been the stable foundation first before the price shot up strong to over $1k?

Do you measure the actual btc value from that baseline amount before the bubble rise and if that's the baseline, if we exclude the bubble and gox failure, and look at the price recovering from both, is it meeting that baseline or has it exceeded it?

I don't know what the actual amount is because I wasn't aware of all this back then. I was considering the market in terms of dynamics and Newton's Law - it'll keep doing what it's doing until something disrupts it. If the bubble/gox failure is the disruption, then the price prior to that would be where the market was naturally at...and compared to where it is now, is it steady growth or has it reached the break even point yet?

Bitcoin value is easy enough to model. Magnitude just boils down to assumptions:

http://honestnode.com/bitcoin-fair-value-a-first-assessment/

Edit: tl;dr: $27,381 / BTC on relatively conservative success-case assumptions.
Fair value today depends on your analysis of the reasonability of those assumptions, and your estimation of the probability that the success case will happen.

i'm not positive, but if i remember correctly in taking a look at the historical charts, we were closer to the $700-800 range before the Gox meltdown really unfolded.

Thanks. I also forgot to include the silk road drop but if it was $700 before, then now it would be returning to that level...and if it goes up again, it was always going to  ;D

I think btc has gained too much traction and been invested in by big money to just cave to government/banking pressures to conform. I think the people who put money in it will comply to a point but fundamentally adopted and support btc because it frees us from these institutions. I'm okay with a little cooperation just to get to enough adoption it'll basically put the government right back in the position the bankers did: we own your ass, we're too big to fail, you can't let us fall else it'll destroy the economy...only in btc terms, too many businesses have invested in it and have mass adoption...so you can't outlaw it or regulate it out of existence without mass exodus out of fiat  ;D

once the ETFs come out and wallstreet jumps into the game, i'm pretty certain it will reach $1,000.. oh and that's not even mentioning a major company like ebay, newegg, or amazon adopting btc.

bitcoin will go past 1000 not later than august, sorry OP. 5000+ by May, 2015. the price grows by x10 every year now, we are in an explosive adoption phase. willy bot and china are just tiny detractions that can delay the growth by a month maybe. irrelevant tiny dips on a yearly scale.

speaking of the willy bot, i noticed the wordpress site has been taken down. is it posted anywhere else? does anyone think the media may pick up on the story and it will have a negative impact on price?

Here you go:

http://web.archive.org/web/20140525171522/http://willyreport.wordpress.com/ (http://web.archive.org/web/20140525171522/http://willyreport.wordpress.com/)

Once on the web, always on the web.

About the Willy: I've heard most of the volume were at chinese exchanges, not Mt. Gox. Gox had like 7% of the volume (iirc.)

Here's a good(?) graph :)
https://i.imgur.com/aM5iyPm.png?2

yes, but there are a couple considerations. 1) Chinese exchanges have been shown to fake volume (e.g. OkCoin) 2) was MT Gox price action driving the price action on Chinese exchanges? if so, then that is pretty significant, i think.

If we don't look at the obviously faking volume -exchanges, still Mt Gox proportion of the volume was quite low. I've not analyzed anything myself but I've understood it's clear that Chinese exchanges were leading the rise.

on the first part, though -- removing the obviously faking volume -exchanges. how can you do that? personally, i don't trust the volume numbers coming out of any of the Chinese exchanges, but that is partly because i don't know where to start this sort of volume analysis. also, the Chinese exchanges offer margin trading, which tends to excite volume numbers, though that may not be any real reason to detract from their numbers.

BTC China is 'OK' in my eyes. I searched some info and apparently, based on the link, Gox volume were just 7% of the Bitstamp volume. http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/26h8tv/the_willy_btc_volume_is_only_equivalent_to_7_of/ (http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/26h8tv/the_willy_btc_volume_is_only_equivalent_to_7_of/)

interesting. that is actually really surprising to me. i guess it's been so long now since i was watchin the action on Gox on btc wisdom, but i remember feeling like Gox has SO MUCH liquidity, such walls. i always felt like they had so much volume. but never actually looked too deeply.

Many people will want to own at least 1 whole BTC.
The extremely low supply will be a huge factor as demand rises. Once Bitcoin is above $2,000 (for example) it might never again "go past $1,000" on any correction.  :)

Yes, one btc will be like "hey dude, he owns an ENTIRELY BTC!" , imagine if the 8 decimals bitcoin has become useful, lets say 1 satoshi = 1 cent, each bitcoin will worth 100,000 .

what kind of calculations do they use to come to this conclusion? is it similar to some of the analysis i have seen regarding metcalfe's law as a measure of value based on the network effect? i still haven't been able to fully wrap my head around that stuff.

1) grab a calculator
2) type in 200
3) times 10
4) 2000 result
5) this proves the price will be 2000

According to Petko Draganov bitcoin isnt worth paying attention to unless it is doing 200 billion a day in volume. Assuming bitcoin will be worth paying attention to the market cap will have to be well into the trillions to support that.

all this is telling me is that Petko Draganov is a buyer at 300,000$ bitcoin

i'm all for weighing both sides of the situation here. but who the hell is Petko Draganov, and why would i possibly care what his position is? he some sort of economist?  :)

And a discount for when it will happen.

Lol,this question right here. Who is he and what experience does he have? Also,it's a wonder that BTC is at what levels it is today. It's come very far in a very short time. As long as there is more adoption,and there are speculators in the market,it's value will keep going up and down. So,yeah...