Bitcoin Forum

Time is Running Out for Mark Williams Prediction of a $10 Bitcoin
http://bitcoinmagazine.com/13562/time-running-mark-williams-prediction-10-bitcoin/


http://cryptocurrencyinc.com/images/CryptoCurrency.png

Bitcoin at $10 will openly happen in extreme scenarios. Even the Mt Gox robbery could not make BTC to go below the $300 mark. Only if some previously unknown bug is found, which makes double spending and counterfeit possible, the BTC can go below $10 mark. And I don't think that such chances exceed more than 0.00000001% in probability for a 100-year return-period.  ;D

I'll fetch a knife and fork so that he can eat his own words. $10 requires a catastrophic action or series of actions, I don't think that is going to happen anytime soon, almost certainly not in the next month either.

The only chance of Bitcoin dropping to $10 is if an early investor tosses 2-4 million coins on the market all at once.

His prediction should have been that Darkcoin will reach 10 dollars a coin instead of Bitcoin
Just messing with him he made a calculation based on idiocy and needs to own up to it

It will be interesting to see if he posts a follow-up statement, and what exactly it will say. Will he merely re-iterate his thoughts but extend the deadline?

I think his argument is that he believes that Bitcoin as an investment is generally too risky.

That probably is right but to me it sounded more like someone who was firing off his mouth without doing any research
I want to know if he will be humble and acknowledge his mistakes while admitting he does not understand it well enough
Or mention the reasons he believes it is risky and drop any price estimates.

If he has any sense he will come out and admit that he was hasty with his valuation, but likely re-iterate that he still believes that it is extremely volatile. $10 is a silly valuation after how established it has become.

No one is having that many coins right now. The wealthiest owner is believed to be in the possession of BTC980,000.

http://bitslog.wordpress.com/2013/04/24/satoshi-s-fortune-a-more-accurate-figure/

I'm not sure that many early investor coins exist.

1 million are Satoshi's.
1.5 million are lost from the first miners.

I know that the top members of the Bitcoin rich would be just over a million coins (excluding Satoshi.)

So if Satoshi and all the Bitcoin rich were to dump, that would be 2 million coins, this would also be a grand redistribution of wealth and I would imagine the price would recover fast and rise to a all time high too.

We can only dream for such a dump, but it'll never ever happen. Ever.

I think a dump of 100,000 bitcoin on bitstamp would bring the price to $10. However whoever did that would be throwing away 80% of their wealth for no reason, the price would again recover very quickly.

totally agree
good synopsis

Small note I believe he refers to himself as ...

Herr Doctor Professor Mark T. Williams

just so there is no confusion as to who he exactly is.

Satoshi may be owning close to a million coins. But they are showing no movement for the last several years. There is a strong chance that he might have lost the private key... Or perhaps, he might be even dead.

Talking about the first batch of miners, most of them sold their coins at very low rates in 2010 and 2011. They are definitely not in the possession of a large amount of coins.

How this clown must be kicking himself. Of course, only behind closed doors. Yeah, you know what I'm talking about Mark.

LOL  :D

The guy confirms his views :

http://www.coindesk.com/mark-t-williams-bitcoin-bulls-time-will-vindicate-prediction/

“grossly over-inflated” due to what he views as its “concentrated ownership, artificially limited supply and overhyped demand”.

Talk about solid arguments !

Shall we take them one by one ?
Concentrated ownership does not create scarcity by itself. It is the anticipation of future value that creates scarcity, not ownership concentration.
If there was poor future utility/value, people would sell wether they are few or many.
If the anticipation of future value is great, people avoid spending it - even if they are millions.
The big BTC owners are not keeping it for themselves to manipulate the price up. Instead, they keep it because they anticipate a higher value in the future.

Big owners have been mostly pushing the price DOWN, not up. They did so by diversifying away from BTC as the value was going up over the years and months.

Now the "artificially limited supply". What he means by that ? Again scarcity from ownership concentration ? Impossibility to create them out of thin air ?
I have no idea, but I see a market well supplied with lots of BTC sellers.

About overhyped demand, well, I find we are quite far from hype. The media is quite dubious about BTC and is happier to relay pessimism than optimism. There is more fear and misunderstandings than hype surrounding bitcoin, imho.

and early adopter is not idiot or fool.
they known that sell "regulary" is more benefict (for all and FIAT value) than sell all-in-one.

that's why Bitcoin is a more ... than banks system.

Even in the worst case, if there's a huge sell of hundreds of thousands of btc,
the price will be recovered in no time because of the buy pressure that a such low value would trigger.

So June 30 is "Bitcorn Day"?

Edit: and did anyone ever get to the bottom of that money trail from the Bitcorn that was rumoured to lead back to JPMorgan?

I could never understand how that fellow received all that press. Anybody can toss out some predictions, making some wild guesses.

My signature.

I am not surprised. I have heard that Visa / Master are hiring lobbyists and spending millions of USD to counter the popularity of Bitcoin. A media propaganda campaign is not entirely unexpected or out of the blue.

Very nice!

That is nearly impossible to happen , it would require world apocalypse for that to happen. LOL.
To many people using it already so it will be harder and harder to drop the price.

I would like to see him invest his money as easily as he talks.

Why not invest in some shorts? He can end up very rich... if he's right.

Why do people feel the urge to speculate in either direction when they don't understand? Who do they wish to say that something goes to the floor when it does not go to the floor? The answer: attention. I hope he enjoyed his (short lived) fame.

He already got way more than the promised 15m (Andy Warhol).

Perhaps there is indeed some people paying certain journals against bitcoin.

It seems I'm starting to believe in conspiracies...

"yo no creo en brujas, pero que las hay, las hay".

And we have been having this dream since the beginning of last year...

He didn't even use any logic, or tried to back up any of what he said. He should just pull a Metcalfe, and we can provide the blender.

He's a fucking idiot, yes, I called him an idiot.

He was proven wrong and now his arrogance is stopping him from admitting it, and instead just says that some day it will go down and crash. Yeah beautiful, so too will the fucking earth itself.

He should put his money where his mouth is just like most of us here already does. Until then this clown is just not worth anyones time.

He will ask his fed buddies to print a few 100 million dollars so they can naked short bitcoins to oblivion near his deadline. ;D

Only way he could still look prophetic with that whacky predication.

I would like to buy your $10 bitcoins.  Just throwing that out there.  ;)

I don't think that would work.  Not enough market depth.  The price would get driven way up trying to "borrow" enough coins.

Anyway Mark Williams is obviously being proven wrong and he's been wrong the whole time because  he doesn't understand (or doesn't want to understand) the importance, the value, and the genius of blockchain technology.

Agreed!

probably not even then.

Nobody has 2-4 million coins.

Bitcoin creator supposedly has 980 000 BTC. But they have not moved or been used once in many years, fuelling speculation that they might be lost.
Anyway, no sane investor would dump all his coins at once on the market.

Not many people dare to put their reputation on the line with such an unlikely prediction.
Even if he believes so, he would not have made this public prediction if he didn't get paid to do so, or he must be extraordinarily stupid.

I don't think it's worse than what Metcalfe said. He said the Internet would literally crash, or 'die out on itself'. At a Internet conference, he took a blender and put some water in it. He proceeded to put the article in which he said that, and drunk it in front of everyone.

Anyway: Can't believe anybody believed this guy. He's not even holding up to his word. But if a Bitcoiner did this, It'd be hands on loose.

There are many possibilities.

1. Satoshi might be dead.
2. He don't have the private key for any of these wallets.
3. He might have send the coins to someone else, who might have lost the private key.

Only Satoshi Nakamoto has the power to bring back the $10 bitcoin, and even (s)he/they could only make it happen for a few hours at best. Word would spread extremely quickly, a massive buying frenzy would follow.

Hmm... What about 51% attack ? That would crash bitcoin seriously . And ghash.io is rly close to be able to do 51% attack, (not saying they will) .

Technically, "1 share of Bitcoin" is a Satoshi, which at this point in time, is worth substantially less than 1 US cent.
But yeah, would be good to see BTC go to 4-digits soon, and stay there after the pop - then we can all conclusively laugh at the clown shill this man is.

The article that started the conversation

Boston University Economist Mark T. Williams’ Bitcoin Price Prediction Will Be Proven Ridiculously Wrong
http://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/news/mark-t-williams-bitcoin-price-prediction-wrong/2014/06/01

A bet that no one else but Mark Williams would take now if he put his money where his mouth is this would have been an interesting bet.
However since he did not we can just have fun poking at him :)
Now I wish they would change the economics books sigh teaching a whole generation of bad economists

There are a lot of wrong people regarding bit coin. Very few actually own up to it and even fewer change their thinking even when proven wrong.

It's pretty obvious that he was just looking for a headline
He has built his personal equity now, but for his prediction he would be a Boston Uni prof nobody had ever heard of

He is probably buying bitcoins rigt now, and dont care about his wrong prediction. ;)

Exactly. The guy likes to be in the spotlight and brought on all of these panels and news segments as the counterpoint. In the unlikely event that somehow Bitcoin doesn't make it, his brand will soar. He'll be the next Krugman.

https://i.imgur.com/S66lE3f.png

A moment ago, someone dumped another $370,000 of fiat wealth into Bitcoin. Take from that what you will.

Nice! Maybe start another rally.

Me personally waiting not for 10 but for 10000 USD for bitcoin )

The problem with his prediction is not that "BTC will suddenly go ridiculously down", but with not explaining why it should go to $10 and not to $20 or $1.

If BTC legitimately appreciated to $10 point while still being held by very few people, then why can't the same process legitimately bring it to $100 or $1000? Mark Williams did not answer these questions. He just said that Bitcoin is stupid and thus overpriced. But he didn't explain why any other price is "correct".

If he had said BTC will go to $10 in Feb 2009 he would have been considered a genius at this point ....

The funny thing is that he might actually end up being right if we don't purge Ghash.IO of most of its hashing power.

They wont do, and wont be able to do 51% attack dont worry about it. ;)

Certainly explains why the US is in the debt predicament we're in.  Strangely, I hope he's right.  I'd love to buy in big at $10 a coin.  Lol...

LOL that you all think a few thousand people circle-jerk-speculating on internet pogs means that they're actually worth real money.  Idiots speculate and drive up the price and people who actually use btc as a store of value quickly unload their btc for product (drugs and kiddie porn, usually) and don't care about the cost of the pogs -- a bag of weed is $50 whether in real money or funbux, after all. 

Why would we as a community purge anyone of anything? Advocating punishing someone for economic activity is contrary to what we are trying to accomplish here.

Well , they are centralizing Bitcoin. So that is why they are receiving flak from the Bitcoin community.

They may increase activity , but they are not proving the integrity of Bitcoin.

You know...it's a bit silly to gloat about something like this a month before the deadline...and even so, the 'deadline' is just some arbitrary number. Bitcoin is not invincible, we honestly have no idea whatsoever what can happen. If some critical flaw was exposed in Bitcoin the value could quite feasibly completely plummit to 0.

wow that will never happen IMO

There are quite a few scenarious in whitch bitcoin can go to 0 . But when more and more people are using it than its less chance for that to happen.

Gloating isn't clever, this is the 2nd article about this. Firstly these are premature, and secondly it's immature.

The only way I see bitcoin dropping back down to $10 is if something devastating happened, but even then I highly doubt it. Maybe if something better replaced it?

Will be rly hard for something better to replace it.
To mucj money and time invested in bitcoin infrastructure.

Cmon $10 per bitcoin then I would have only lost $30 only gambling  ;D here's hoping... Well dreaming!

The probablility of a fatal bug in Bitcoin is small, but still much better than this. Your estimate is low to the point of being deluded.

Even then people seem to have very little interest in new cryptocoin technology. It seems like even if a new coin were to come out with an entirely new code base and features that were objectively better than bitcoin, people still wouldn't care enough to switch. Or at best do some minor speculation.

I think at this point the only way a new crypto could have a shot at bitcoin is if it were backed by a group willing to spend millions on promoting it to the masses.

Thats is my thoughts also . So much money is spent on bitcoin . There might already be some better coins but they will have much harder time to beat bitcoin in mass adoption. Even bitcoin is having hardtime , any other coin will have 10x as that.
I dont see any coin taking over in near future .

http://www.professorbitcorn.com/

 ;D

I could not care less, wasnt even worried. These kinds of predictions never become reality.

+1 for properly saying "could not care less" instead of saying "i could care less" like so many idiots do.

Bitcoin Dropping to 10$ would virtually never happen the USD which is the World Reserve Currency
will go Below the 0.03 its worth this year mark my words!

BITCOIN is the NEW way to Buy Sell and Trade without Fiat Currency and Third Party Banksters!

No they aren't centralizing bit coin.

It isn't their job to prove the integrity of anything. Their job is to acquire wealth. They are quite good at it and that is good for bit coin. 

This guy was just looking for some fame  :P

Make me think of Muse: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZrujXrB1_aE

Does selling 180k SR sized bitcoins by US Marshals count as such a devastating event?

Probably not :) . It wont go even near 10$ .

even if his prediction comes true, its still bitcoin. As long as its worth even 1 dollar, its still usable.. its still bitcoin

Usable for different things though.

It's usable even if it's 0.01$ or even less. You and me can trade even if noone else wants to use it. But yeah...point is...Williams is gonna get his ass raped 31.6 (figuratively speaking ofc) on Internet  ;D

Which is not very impossible. Not saying about the price drop, but there is a lot of cois forgotten by some people in the past. For example a friend of mine was having about 10 000 BTC in his old computer which now is on the trash and only god knows if someone in the future will find it and eventually looks into its HDD knowing that machine is from the early 21 century when BTC was invented.
BR
Gondel

100k bitcoins alone cant do a shit. Someone doing that after some bad news, could maybe pull price till 100 USD for a day. But reality is, that BitCoin will just get tons of good news.

Yap 100k might drop price a bit but no way anybody would sell that low so price cant go down to much. And if u dump them all on lets say bitstamp it will only crash that exchange.
It will take much much more to crash bitcoin than 100k coins.

Incorrect.  It will crash all exchanges due to arbitrage.

dont be too hard on Mark, he was only off by a few powers of ten :-)

Has he demonstrated in any interview or article that he fully understands bitcoin? I remember for me when I first started trying to understand bitcoin I was very skeptical, but once I really understood the blockchain and how the public ledger works, that was kind of my "lightbulb" moment where I thought bitcoin could have a big future.

I really hope Mr. Bitcorn will come to our site in the next few days...

https://www.betmoose.com/uploads/img/184.jpg (https://www.betmoose.com/bet/10-bitcoin-by-june-30th-2014-219)___________

$10 Bitcoin by June 30th, 2014 (https://www.betmoose.com/bet/10-bitcoin-by-june-30th-2014-219) Options: Yes (https://www.betmoose.com/bet/10-bitcoin-by-june-30th-2014-219#1) | No (https://www.betmoose.com/bet/10-bitcoin-by-june-30th-2014-219#2)

i think he's demonstrated that he DOESN'T understand it.

I think bitcoin will not go down to 10$ in the next year or two.

He's was close. Only $600 or so off.

No one took that bet ha-ha
Not even Mark Williams would put his money into that and yep only off by over 600 dollars
Think it was 650 - 10 - 640 dollars off

One big mouth, no substance.
That's all.

The problem with his prediction is not that "BTC will suddenly go ridiculously down", but with not explaining why it should go to $10 and not to $20 or $1.

Consider this: if BTC legitimately appreciated to $10 point while still being held by very few people, then why can't the same process legitimately bring it to $100 or $1000? Mark Williams did not answer these questions. He just said that Bitcoin is stupid and thus overpriced. But he didn't explain why any other price is "correct".

We get it (and he gets it). The guy is going to be proven wrong. Let's stop beating this dead horse, or risk making ourselves look like spiteful asses. If you care enough about him and feel like you must act, here's a suggestion. Tip him, make a donation in his name to Sean's Outpost, or do something that might welcome him into the community. Do something positive for a change.

Yeah, right after he honestly and rightfully admits to all his motivations and agendas .... like that he's a paid shill for the bankers ...

That and the fact that he probably holds some Bitcoins himself.
Anyways guess this thread won't go away till he admits it or will be brought up years from now all over again but I do believe he does have an agenda.

yeah we passed half year mark and bitcoin still >$600
far above $10 like he predicted before ;D
it seems nobody will read his prediction anymore in the future :)

its okay, he's extended his deadline to infinity so he pretty much cant be wrong.

he's not active on twitter, unsurprisingly
https://twitter.com/UncontrolRisk