Bitcoin Forum

I estimate this will happen around June 10th.  The weekly MACD hasn't been green since January.

https://i.imgur.com/N7D9MnV.jpg

Hello Raystonn, I was reading you predictions posts and I am glad you are attempting to put your abilities at work. May I ask how you got the date for the green candle?

Anyways keep up the great posts.

Oh I never stopped.  I just stopped publicly posting the predictions.  The thread was about helping others.  But I'm not interested in being piled on.

The weekly MACD has been increasing at a rate of about 23 points each of the last couple weeks.  It's currently at -22.21.  Not an overly complex analysis on this one.  But complexity usually means you're just curve fitting and will be wrong in the future.

Do you think traders will take this as a bullish sign and take this another level up? I tend not to look at lagging indicators as much, preferring leading indicators like RSI and MACD.

You'll see many bots buying if weekly MACD crosses.

+ Agreed Weekly MACD crossing a mad buy signle as it sets the trend on all 3 Anchor charts  8)

BUY? BUY BUY BUY BUY

MAD money comming to stamp on tuesday & wednesday ...look forward to a awesome midweek pump :D

We are crossing over now. It will be really interesting come the 10th.   ;D

I guess weekly MACD cross is the real target of this rally now. I doubt it will stop so close to it as it's major trend reversal signal.

Bots and traders alike...its already quite positive at this time, we have a live one!

Don't pre-empt MACD. It's not designed for that. Only respond to it once it's actually happened and confirmed. It's not really a good indicator to use when things are moving fast.

Don't be stupid. When you see a giant green spike sticking out of the deep like a ten foot dong, that MACD is going shoot up with its eyes popped open.

No indicator is designed for that, really. Always wait for the close, or wait until you are near it enough that an extraordinarily unlikely event would have to happen to turn it around. Still nearly a week to that event (at best), so indeed a bad idea here to "anticipate" it happening.

So how many traders are trading on this signal, I wonder? I have never really watched the weekly charts, nor do I use MACD crosses. In a rally like this, I guess we'd never know, anyway...

Not sure how many but I guess there are few of those long period ones who are waiting it as confirmation of trend reversal.

Last two weekly MACD crosses produced an average of 1100% profit each in Bitcoin world.

For whom, like me, doesn't know what MACD is, here is the definition of this trading indicator found on wiki:

The MACD indicator (or "oscillator") is a collection of three time series calculated from historical price data, most often the closing price.
These three series are: the MACD series proper, the "signal" or "average" series, and the "divergence" series which is the difference between the two.
The MACD series is the difference between a "fast" (short period) exponential moving average (EMA), and a "slow" (longer period) EMA of the price series.
The average series is an EMA of the MACD series itself.

Since the MACD is based on moving averages, it is inherently a lagging indicator.
As a metric of price trends, the MACD is less useful for stocks that are not trending (trading in a range) or are trading with erratic price action.

Bitcoinwisdom's chart calculates the MACD to include the price of the current candle as if the candle was closed already. However, to declare that a cross has occured, you must do this based only on candles that have actually closed and not pre-emptively based on a new candle. Therefore, the MACD cross won't actually be for 10 days (at least)

This leaves enough time for a significant correction to occur, which could extend the actual cross to 3 or 4 weeks away, so we could end up  having a month long consolidation before the cross actually occurs and another breakout actually occurs.

I am thinking we might see a correction like this. What are your targets if so? :) I'm not convinced yet that we're headed for another bubble, do you think after this consolidation that we'll break the ATH?

I don't know whether we're headed for ATHs this year or not - I really don't know what's going to happen with the long term trend and trying to guess this would be hocus pocus. I do think that, assuming that we ARE headed to ATH this year, that even after this consolidation is over, there will be another consolidation in the 800s area because that was also another major flat area in january.

800 will be big fight. Many noobs bought there and would like to recover. Not sure if they would but my only 2 sales of the exchanges were at 800.

The weekly MACD seems to be the most reliable MACD for bitcoin, the others are pretty much all over the place.

Actually, if this bullishness continues into tomorrow, we can have a closed green candle by the end of that day.  Tomorrow is the last day of the week for the bitcoinwisdom weekly chart, and it's very, very close to turning green now.

Sorry, I was off by 1 day.  Missed the 10th by that much...

We actually have a green closed candle on bitfinex's MACD.  Bitstamp's just turned green with the start of the new week.

Being off by 1 day in BitcoinLand is still a bullseye - good on you!

I also wouldn't mind picking your brain with regards to the next couple of weeks... Do you think we will see a minor cross back over before resuming the upwards trend, a la September last year?

I think it's entirely possible we could flash crash down as low as 420 within the next 2-3 weeks, ending the week of the crash above 540.  It's also possible we could stay flat for 2-3 weeks.  Either way, when we break above 685, we're on our way to a new ATH.  I expect to revisit the last ATH in about 7 weeks, and be at our new ATH about 4 weeks after that.

We seem to be pretty closely following the trend of the run-ups to the previous two peaks. If we do continue like this, I think we may bypass the flash crash you mentioned, and just stay flat for another 2 weeks.

http://i62.tinypic.com/2aengbr.jpg

Look at the week of 9/25/2013.  We could be in for a flash crash like that before the big run-up.

what a strange discussion...

As already mentioned, declaring the MACD green before a weekly candle close carries the obvious risk that upon candle close it *won't* in fact turn green.

And apart from that, how about the following 3 (different) instances of a bullish MACD c.o. that saw a price decline afterwards anyway....

case #1

last year, september/october. bullish c.o., sharp crash... yeah yeah, "Silk road". Still, the market was ready for a huge drop, so don't declare shit outliers just because they don't fit your theory:

https://i.imgur.com/gHPElBB.png



case #2

late 2012. 1st *closed* green MACD candle and: in between price decline

https://i.imgur.com/tyGrlu0.png



case #3

my favorite. 2011/2012 bear market. weekly macd turns green, but by the time that happens, because it's such a lagging indicator, price was already near a local peak.

afterwards? another 5 months of mild decline/stagnation, before the next rally.

https://i.imgur.com/n6gwfy6.png



What conclusions to draw?

Well, I'm not saying to ignore weekly MACD. Just don't turn it into something that it isn't: a magic signal that infallibly preempts huge price increases.

If anything, in the recent past it preempted minor drops and periods of stagnation. Once that is accepted, I will add that it also then led to further rallies in the mid term, which is all you holders want anyway, so why discuss trading signals in the first place :D

You think that the market could handle going down to $420 and then charge right back up to a new ATH? If we go down to $420, then we will be looking for a new ATL for 2014.

In any case, something would have to actually happen for the flash crash to occur...
And big news as Silk Road last year are not that likely to come. It would be a huge coincidence!

A price change of similar magnitude happened the week of 9/25/2013, after the weekly MACD turned green.  It was the ultimate bear trap before the big rise.  It sounds like such price action would likely pull you into the bear trap.

Well, that was quick.  We locked in green on bitfinex, so it will always be there.  Bitstamp's is now gone.  Here is the crash before we go vertical.  I expect us to stay low at least until June 27th.

For now, as always.... we hold.

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-uidBzAL2VXc/UIkUOdPvQjI/AAAAAAAAAPc/ZbMM_TDgo2A/s1600/braveheart-hold-original-300x249.jpg

Apologies... should have been more thorough.

I was completely wrong on the timeframe.  We've been moving in slow motion up to this point.  Change "weeks" to "months" and it was about right up to this point.  I don't think it will be long before the next ATH.

Thanks for this analysis. I find it very interesting.

Could you post another (updated) graph? I'd love to try to understand these indicators you are looking at (I don't yet know what MACD refers to, but want to research it more).

Any further explanation would be much appreciated!

MACD - Moving Average Convergence Divergence

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/macd.asp

What about the current MACD? Can we see some fancy graphs? I think we're again at a very important point. These days will decide whether it's a dead-cat-bounce or it really is a true recovery! And maybe even the begin of a new bubble???

Weekly MACD? Not looking good at all. It's the second chart region

https://i.imgur.com/dnkW2y8.png

...and at what point do you feel it is confirmed either way about the dead cat bounce?

bump :)

I am glad you bumped this so everyone can see what fools you suckers have been all year! This thread consist of permabulls arguing over 800... then 650... and still talking about a new ATH! LOL! Sound familiar???

We are on a nice slow path back to the ground level. Get used to it!