Bitcoin Forum

I notice that we have a classic bull cup and handle scenario forming on the Bitcoin chart, right at the end of $250 move.

What do we know about the components of this chart formation?

We know that the left side of the cup, occurred at a point when the swap rates on Bitfinex went through the roof for a period of time (1% per day), this was followed by stint of selling pressure where due to the extortionate swap rates on offer, traders couldn't use leverage to take advantage of the 'cheap' Bitcoins. A flash crash occurred, taking Bitcoin down to $613 ($1.50 above my Fib retracement buy-in tranche, naturally). With the flash crash, we have the left side of the cup, and the large volume to match it.

Then we had a consolidation period, that looked to be forming a bear flag. After the already massive gains in Bitcoin, this looked like a glaring shorting opportunity (don't worry, I didn't). Low volume, increasingly lower highs; what looked odds-on certain to happen was a retracement to mid/upper $500 range at the very least. But then what happened?

Then, some whale put in a 600 BTC market order on Bistamp. This took price up from around $635 - $660. Then we had some whale who apparently operating through Bitfinex but with the trade registering and being executed on Stamp, place a 750BTC Bid wall at $665. This stood for around 5 minutes, and then the whole lot was swallowed up all at once. With these two massive purchases, and no doubt many smaller trades being swished back and forth between accounts both by the manipulators and other smaller traders trying to catch the right wave, we have the right side of the cup, accompanied by large volume.

The 'break out' above $680 is yet to occur, so perhaps I shouldn't speak to soon. But the more I watch the shenanigans and utter bullshit trading on the Bitcoin exchanges, the more I am convinced that we are going up, because some whale entity has decided that we are going up and he/they have the clout to ensure that we do. With regards to the logic of healthy corrections, Bitcoin just hasn't been conforming since $460. But with the winds of the pending weekly MACD and MA crossovers at their back, I am convinced that there are whale entities burning capital in an effort to ramp Bitcoin up into stratosphere. These people might be taking a hit just now, but if they can push and push Bitcoin, eventually we are going to have another mania, at which point their market engineering will become extremely rewarding? Or perhaps it is already rewarding in that all the big Bitcoin deals are done OTC and the price of these trades are determined by the rates on the exchanges, which can be moved, supported, crashed, with comparatively small amounts of capital?

Free...market. I like the manipulation and whale antics, makes it fun to watch clever TA experts squeal. Expect the unexpected by now.
 

MatTheStonewallWorstTrader

Move on, man. the markets are what they are and you're just no good at it. Buy a few coin and get on with something else that you enjoy.

In 10 years time you'll still be BlamingTheWhaleConspiracy to any barfly who'll listen. CouldaBeenRich, but, but...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MybLVHnGxHo

I am presently long Bitcoin.

I see $700s, and then $800s, coming around the mountain. But it isn't due to 'the free market' as Adam Smith intended it. This is whale ramping and chart formation engineering in a cornered market.

That is the free market.

Really, at what point do you begin to feel dumb? You say yourself that you are a shit trader, admitted that holding during the recent upswing would have turned more profit, and you just keep on doing it.

Mat, none of the "whale" stuff matters. You don't need to care about "manipulation". You don't need to understand it, let alone play along or try to beat it. Your break is to be here now with enough money to buy a few. That is all you have to do. And you say that you've done it. Good.

Now leave the other games that you see but can't play well to others. Abandon the idea of being a hot trader, just let it go. Buy the coins, go for a walk, chat to a pretty woman, read a poem. But stop driving yourself mad fighting this conspiracy. ItAintYourBagMan. You're talented in other areas.

This is happening in all markets, no matter how small or big. Only the players are bigger in bigger markets. Listen to this guy and see how the BTC market is the same as every other market: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gMShFx5rThI

Here's a definition of free market for you. Really, free market is exactly like an open ocean. All sizes of whales, sharks, small fish are fighting for food here. You just catch your wave and enjoy, no need to worry which whale caused it :)

What you are trying to do - understand the mechanics without having any insight below the surface - is impossible by definition. You are left with guessing. Once you are managing a 1 billion hedge fund, start worrying about whale manipulators. No need to even care about that shit with <1mil, they are not after you.

bitcoin could already have their little 'London Gold Fix' club where they sit around on a conference call twice a day deciding on what range they want to set the price

the point is, you ain't in that club whether it exists or not

Notice too in the video at 3:20, where Cramer talks about how fake FUD in the media is actually created and spread when you want a market down.  His example is from back in the day, at the time trying to bring down the stock of Research In Motion, the makers of the Blackberry.  He says, "...and then you call the [WS]Journal and get the bozo reporter to report that there's a problem with RIM, and feed them that there's a Palm giveaway [coming soon], etc..."

Gee, sound familiar anyone?
China FUD articles?
The Newsweek witch hunt for Satoshi (aka Dorian) Nakamoto? (guess who the bozo reporter was, lol)
Willy bot crap?
Bitstamp insolvency fears?

Oh wait, that's right. The bitcoin market couldn't possibly be affected by that type of stuff.  /s   ::)

Am I the only person who finds this endless "whale" stuff both boring and paranoid? Nobody ever gives a plausible explanation as to who these whales are supposed to be or how they are able to manipulate prices to their advantage. All you ever get is arm-waving, ranting and metaphors. It's all very conspiracy-nuttish and unpersuasive.

As they say, freedom defined is freedom denied. Maybe Smith's idea of what a free market looks like was naive?

go take a walk down gold manipulation lane and come back mmmkay?

Time and time again, in all areas ranging from geo-politics right down to personal relationships, things come out into the public domain that make it clear that all was not as it seemed nor as it was supposed to be.

If you don't find the way the way that Bitcoin has been traded recently a little 'peculiar', then that is your prerogative not to do so. Perhaps the numerous shit coin ramps were all straight down the line and innocent as well? Move along, nothing to see here?

You stick with your 'everything in the world is at it says on the tin' understanding of how the world works and I shall stick to suspecting that powerful people conspire to manipulate events and occurrences to suit their own agendas/desires (duh).

For the reasons I describe in my opening post, this bullish cup n handle formation has come about in a very strange and inorganic fashion. Even permabulls who were watching the action and were aware of the temporary swap rate hike on Bitfinex are smelling fish. Take away the price engineering from this market and we would most certainly correct from here, but probably, we are going to break to the upside. I feel sure that the market engineers will see to that, or perhaps already have seen to it since 90% of traders are bot algorithms........give em the price data they, need, they will do the rest in due course.

Indeed, and what a splendid show it is.

http://i664.photobucket.com/albums/vv10/JimboToronto/bigwhale.jpg (http://s664.photobucket.com/user/JimboToronto/media/bigwhale.jpg.html)

If everything is doing that, then wouldn't that make it normal?

Peculiar would be if all BTC was traded in accordance with the queensbury rules, with everyone given a jolly good heads up about which way it was going in advance so everyone could profit. What ho.

Using an algorithm to trade is not market manipulation so that has no bearing on the discussion. Alt coin ramps seem to be the result of people's desire to buy the latest hot new thing. More fool them but again not market manipulation by whales or anybody else.

Most sharp price rises in the BTC market have a mundane explanation. Somebody places a large buy order and that sends the price up. Simple as that.The interesting thing is why people decide to buy in the quantities they do when they do. You would have to ask  them, but Occam's Razor would suggest the answer is that people buy when they think it is a good time to buy, not because they have some nefarious plan to ramp up prices and then sell. 

I don't dispute that there are ways to cheat. For example I sell 10,000 BTC to you at the  mid price on a relatively low volume exchange at 1200 on the 4th June. I have an obvious incentive to buy some BTC on that exchange at 1200 to send up the price.  Or there is inside trading. But these are special cases, not systematic problems.

As to whether there is anything peculiar in the recent price rise. No more so than any other price rise or fall in the last three years. Prices rise. Then they fall. Then they rise again. You don't know when in advance. It's what markets do.

I'm gonna be really blunt here; if you're a shit trader it's because you're too emotional.

There is no 'free market'; the price is not simply supply vs demand. There is no free market in Bitcoin, there is no free market in gold, potatoes or anything else that has derivatives, shorts, options and other instruments of liquidity. The market is rigged against you. Every financial market is rigged against you. It's a zero-sum game. For you to win someone else has to loose. Stressing about the unfairness of what whale's, bots, HFTs, governments and/or fud-spreading low-life can and cannot do, is completely pointless.

As it appears you've worked out, the pretty patterns on a chart can be painted by those with the resources to do so. In a market as thin as Bitcoin 'they' could paint a giant cock and balls on the charts if they wanted to.

Accumulation, Manipulation, Profit Release*. That's how 'they' work. Accept it for what it is, trade with it, not against it.

Cheers,

Edit * -acknowledgement Martin Cole

It isn't and they don't. I sell BTC to you because you want BTC and I want to buy a car. You get the BTC you want. I get the car I want. We both win.

Or that whale could use a portion of his coins and wealth to push the market around in a way that leads to positive buy signal after positive buy signal, which eventually ignites the market into action, thus multiplying the notional value of the whales BTC stash for whatever reason.

On the price action thread, when the whale made the 500 BTC market order that pushed Bitcoin up $30 in 10 seconds, some asked, "why did that whale do that?" Another replied; "altruism". I don't buy the altruism motive, but the market was looking bearish up until that point, after having plunged upon the temporary disappearance and withholding of a feasible USD swap rate on Bitfinex. It was speculated that some whale was on the main leveraged trading exchange and bought up all the USD swaps, and then started selling Bitcoin. Point is, these market actions were not and could not be coordinated by the masses, but by a powerful few, or even just one entity. Everyone, bull n bear alike, has noticed and remarked on the 'peculiarity' of the trading, and what are we left with? A bullish cup n handle chart formation, with the volumes beneath it in all the right proportions, right at the point where we surely would have had a strong retracement (loadsa folk were planning on cashing out at $700 range, perhaps not now). It also fits in nicely to an ascending triangle which if the text book guidelines are adhered to, should break above the $683 high on this move. Aided and abetted by some 600 BTC chunk being taken out the Ask wall by some whale on Bitstamp.

As for Alt-coins. The pump n dump activities in those markets are well known. There are individuals who are (in)famous for having perpetrated shitcoin pump n dumps.

I amn't calling this blatantly engineered ramp a pump n dump just yet, as objectives of those who are ensuring this rise stays on track may be much much higher reaching than simply to double/treble Bitcoins value and then cash in (they may want 10* it's value from the $340 low, for example).


I am and have been trading with it. It has just taken a while to realise which way the wind machine has been pointed whilst I have been dicking around 'taking profits', in and out market, staring at charts, doing EW looking for RSI/OBV divergences, and running Fib retracements graphs. Had I sensed or rather accepted that 'this was it' earlier, then I would still be holding my $460 position to this very moment and would be fkn laughing (still can't complain, I have done ok up until now anyhow).

good point; zero-sum only if you consider btc itself as having no value.

I was talking purely in the sense of trading against a counterparty. You're alluding to overcoming the 'double coincidence of wants'.

Cheers

BTC is worth what I can get for it. What I can get for it is directly related to it's USD value. It is a zero sum game. Someone has to pay.

In a FOREX sense; trading BTC/USD currency pair against a counterparty, yes.

Lower volatility will come with market depth.

Organic price appreciation will come with adoption (transactions)

You may be referring to me as one of the permabills (which I am). I did initially speculate something fishy with the swaps, ie that someone scooped up all the USD swap offers on bitfinex and held them briefly, the purpose being to prevent the price from rebounding after a flash crash (high 600s to low 600s, two days ago). But as I thought about it more, it seems unlikely that it would be a very effective strategy. There is simply too much volume on other markets; I think soaking up the swaps would not be strong enough to control the market, even for a short period of time.

The reason I thought of it in the first place was that I needed an explanation of why the USD swap offers would be disappearing during a flash crash, which means that people are selling BTC rather than buying it. But then I thought of what I think is a more plausible and less nefarious explanation: the flash crash triggered a great big slew of limit buy orders, and THOSE are what soaked up the USD swaps. Duhhh! Makes perfect sense, and I don't know why I didn't think of it the first time around ...  ::)

Everyone else is affected by whatever circumstance a single trader cries about. Adapt or die.

Mat a new bull market is now building.

In a bull market the most sudden, unexpected movements are often upwards.

It's just the natural unfolding of the market. No underlying plan being implemented by a couple of whales to see here.

No it's not. It's a technical innovation with the potential to unleash massive efficiency gains for humanity. Tech advances are what drive civilization forward, and are not zero-sum.

All trading is about figuring out what the big players are doing, or trying to do, and exploiting them. Since they deal in large positions they are hamstrung by liquidity issues and their actions move the markets; this allows the smart smaller players to extract value from them. It's like being a sucker-fish on a whale or shark.

 

he actually still loses. you got bitcoin, likely to appreciate greatly. he got a car. it will depreciate to nearly nothing in ten years.

Mat, you are the best contrarian indicator ever.

Don't worry. I folded my hand at $658. $10 loss per BTC.

But this is just a correction, of that I am sure. A much needed and much overdue correction.

$700-$800 still coming around the mountain.

Time to fortify the 580 bulwark?  Boo..it retreats.

No.

There are rich people who invest out there.  Their moves will affect the market more than those investing less.  It's entirely common and predictable.

He gets to drive babes around in a sports car for ten years. You get to stay at home watching charts on a screen.

Bah tried that. You get bored in a month. Ten years? He'll blow his brains out in a year most.

Watching the charts, on the other hand, is never boring, because unlikes stupid babes it does tickle your imagination :)

Mat you converted me to this viewpoint last week, and I posted literally 5 minutes before the $680-ish crash because ... well .. it took an IQ of twelve to figure out that's right about where they dumped last time.   

Obviously being pumped and dumped.  They don't have Gox to ride the $100 differences anymore, so they have to create their own.

-B-