Bitcoin Forum

Made this bet yesterday, if you think Bitcoin is falling then surely it won't pass $7 by the end of the month.

http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=296

Should be an easy 1 BTC for you folks, right?

Best BET:

Bitcointalk.org will not have developed new forum software by Jan 1, 2013

LMFAO!!!

Whats wrong with this one?

Bets of Bitcoin is an awesome site.  Here are a couple more bets to take a look at for the sports fans.

It's a simple machines forum that sometimes has 0-day exploits released that allow hackers to do things they shouldn't. In fact, some of the Something Awful goons hacked it a few months back to promote "CosbyCoin".

http://lookpic.com/O/t2/835/h8u1LFAi.gif (http://lookpic.com/O/i2/835/h8u1LFAi.gif)

Just to let you know that I'm here to answer any questions you might have about the site.

PS: Please don't do this to my visual cortex ever again.

can you explain what the numbers mean?  ive never done betting like this.  Say i put 10 btc on the below, what returns will i win for each respective outcome?

https://i.imgur.com/vo5y1.png

EDIT: and also what does current time weight represent?

the earlier you bet, the more you can win relative to everybody else who is betting. The 'weighted' bets account for this factor

Does the site have enough volume to accurately predict (http://www.cs.cmu.edu/~aothman/flex.pdf)?

Time weight is simply the minutes from now to bet deadline.

Here is an example from our help page (http://betsofbitco.in/help) which has more info:

Let's say total of 10 btc is lost on a statement and there are three users who won:
User A bets 1 btc 6000 minutes before the deadline (weighted bet of 6000), she is also the submitter.
User B bets 3 btc 1000 minutes before the deadline (weighted bet of 3000)
User C bets 1 btc at the last second (weighted bet of 0)
4.5 btc is distributed proportional to bets:
User A gets 0.9, User B gets 2.7, User C gets 0.9.
4.5 btc is distributed proportional to weighted bets:
User A gets 3.0, User B gets 1.5, User C gets 0.
User A also receives 0.5 commission as a submitter.
So in total:
User A profits 4.4, User B profits 4.2, User C profits 0.9, and site profits 0.5.
Obviously every winner also receives back the bet they put.

Does it help?

I wouldn't claim so.

http://i43.tinypic.com/mb4qvp.png

Does it help?
[/quote]

No.

MUUUUCH to complicated! Just tell me on the UI what Ill win with the amount betting! No more, no less!
Also, your explaination confuses me. It doesnt clear up, but makes it worse. If u want ur site to succeed keep it simple.

The above is meant to be an advise.

Unfortunately as in any other variation of pooled/parimutuel betting, there is now way to tell how much you are going to win before the bets are closed. So I believe there is no meaningful figure other than what we already show in the UI.
Roughly what is going is that you get a share from losing side proportional to your bet, more if you are an early bettor and less if you are a late bettor.

It makes perfect sense.  If you see a bet that is close to the deadline, you have a much better idea of the outcome than one that is a year off.  For example, there was a bet for the price of an ounce of gold at the end of 2011, and I think it was like $2000 or something, but the price was hundreds of dollars away from the goal and it was only a couple weeks away.  I was positive my bet was correct, placed my bet, and I won 0.13 on 3.00 bet.  If I had placed my bet 6 months ago or earlier, it would have been a lot more of a gamble, with a much better reward.  I absolutely love the system.

Yeah, I like this system because it lets me do really weird bets like this one that has a time-tradeoff mechanic. I'm curious as to how this is going to work if it *does* pass $7, though, because then couldn't someone drop 100,000 BTC on this and run away with most of the winnings?

I'll be frank, I made this bet mostly to see how BetsofBitco.in handles a variable end date on a bet, because if it bets don't end the second the price passes $7, there's no reason not to put every BTC you own on the "agree" side.

Of course, right now it looks like there is no way $7 will be reached, so maybe this is a non-issue, but if the same bet was "The price of Bitcoin will remain above $4 through the end of February." and it did not, would the bet end immediately if MtGox traded at $3.99? I imagine not...

For future reference here is how we handle "a variable end date". Whenever we notice or get notified that the bet is over we go back and determine when it happened, then cancel all the bets since the previous midnight. So it doesn't matter if someone put all the BTC they own after the fact.
We may be slow though to follow every single bet. Feel free to notify us to get your earnings as soon as possible.