Bitcoin Forum

Check out this table:

http://coinfinance.com/gainers_losers/30_days (http://coinfinance.com/gainers_losers/30_days)


Even LTC and DOGE has deep fallen. It all started when BTC raised back, is it because the altcoins holders moved to BTC and started selling like crazy their alts in order to get some BTC ?

Alt coins have only 10% of the market and are very influenced by fluctuation. My guess is that they see the more stable bitcoin rising, and trade for btc-  in order to make profit. Then, they may trade again back for alt coin; I remember LTC was rising from $10 to $40, many people jumped aboard trading for LTC. Then the whole thing plumpets to $10;

As for doges  ::) I do not think big players see them as long term investments.

For many exchanges in order to buy Alt coins, you need to use Bitcoin (BTC).    Why spend your hard earned BTC on coins that don't move much when Bitcoin just continues to go up?  

I also use BTC for purchases, so when it's going up I just rather hang on to it than spend it on items.  I also have interest in DRK, and I've noticed that seems to stall when BTC is going up because why convert BTC > DRK when Bitcoin keeps going up?

Even in the DOGE where they presume to be a hard coin with a high community support, it has fallen more than 50% in just a few days :(

I have noticed that in terms of US Dollars both BTC and alt coins have a positive correlation.

It is however important to note that alt coins offer very little additional value from Bitcoin. Most Alt coins have small differences from Bitcoin but they are all generally the same (for the most part). The security of the BTC blockchain is the strongest by far.  

a few reasons, purely based on psychology.

1) when someone gains bitcoin but does not want to sell into dollars because $450 was too low, they go and play the altcoin market to try turning their bitcoin into more, so the buy altcoins and try to day trade them to get more bitcoin. then on the 'shocker' days when they see bitcoin jump near 50% they drop their altcoin trading even at a 1-10% loss, to get back to bitcoin. so they can try selling bitcoin at $650. thinking they have made over 40% profit

2) following on from point one. some people who still have no temptation to sell at even $650, still feel inclined to drop altcoins and just sit on their bitcoins, as if holding the bitcoins means something..

i personally do not sell bitcoins for dollars. i do love to buy cheap altcoins whilst everyone else is scrambling to get back to bitcoins. after all if i can buy an altcoin for under 200sat and in a few days after the pandemonium is over it jumps back to 400.. i have doubled my BTC and the BTC is still valued in the $600 range.. meaning instead of just sitting on BTC, i get to double it.

i have no clue why people sell their altcoin at a small 1%-10% loss to then just sit on the bitcoins and watch the dollar prices spike.. it makes no sense, but people do it.

All wisdom needed found here.

Learn from history, since it might repeat.  :)

(re-posted from a recent thread)
"Normal" alt patterns used to be easy to define (at least for the ones with decent volume/value)
The 'old normal':
When BTC/USD went up, alt/usd almost always went up, but alt/BTC often went down (for example, if alt/usd only went up a little/or stable then it is easy to see why alt/btc goes down with a BTC/USD price increase), also when BTC/USD fell many of the alts/btc would rally

The above was (usually) true for most of last year, until the huge Nov/December rally.
Late last year we had an extreme alt bubble and during the crazy trading "near the top" when BTC/USD went up, so would most/many alt/btc (the alt/USD value increases were extreme)

This "reverse" pattern lasted for a while even once the down-trend started, but lately things have settled and the "old normal" has been true fairly often. If the alts do take off again, the % gains are often amazing.

Because more miners mining altcoins than mining bitcoins if you got a gpu by many orders of magnitude. Most miners are sellers.

Part of the reason is there has been 200+ alt coins created, flooding the market. Not sure why people keep creating more and more coins. Shit coins at that.

When bitcoin rises it is in terms of fiat.

When alt-coins fall it is in terms of BTC.

In terms of fiat, alt-coins stay at roughly the same price.

True enough for "a few days or weeks", but some alt/usd have made stunning moves.
For example, Namecoin used to have a normal range of ~$0.40 to ~$0.70, then it exploded and went to around $10 each, which is a monster % gain for people who caught even part of the move.

Now NMC acts like it is 'dead forever', but someday...?

people realize their altcoin sucks and are buying back into BTC

If somebody is buying and alt, there is a 90% chance they are buying it with bitcoin. 

If somebody sells bitcoin the price goes down.  This happens at the same time somebody is buying and altcoin so the altcoin price goes up. 

But

If somebody is buying bitcoin, the price of bitcoin goes up.  This will happen at the same time that somebody is selling and altcoin which is pushing the price of the altcoin down. 

It doesn't have to be this way, but the averages make it so.

That is the best website I ever saw for Bitcoin.  I have been looking for something like that for a long time.

I feel people think they see an opportunity to make a profit in day trading so they drop their alt investments and hope to make some coin on BTC.  I think this is the same reason altcoins are so volitile at the moment anyway. 

If their is a pump going on then people will sell one coin and buy the other that is on the rise.  It's things like this that makes market manipulation something to worry about in my opinion.   

it's simple really. people mine alts because the difficulties are much lower than that of btc. then, when btc rises, they sell off their alts to convert to btc which causes the price of the alt to drop (because of the selloff) and in turn causes btc to rise even more because people are buying it instead of selling.

The alt coin price are all base on Bitcoin if the bitcoin went down the other will follow .

Wow, I never put the miners into consideration which is something I feel silly about overlooking honestly.  The theory I had before is one I still believe but I feel the point you make is also valid then my suggestion.

miners are running a lot behind the scenes.  I am pretty sure big mining heavy hitters talk and make back room deals.  they are pumping and dumping.  alts are really a dangerous place to play.  a dev can release a coin.  the dev and friends can mine and mine.  and then once enough people are in, they can dump.  it happens over and over.

Personally I think that most alt-coins are really just a way that their creators are trying to get rich.

With NMC being the exception, pretty much all alt-coins do not provide any value that bitcoin does not already provide. If you are going to deal in alt-coins then you are speculating IMO (not that anything is wrong with that but speculating is not the same as investing)

bcause they dump to buy bitcoin

agree

Since the majority loses money, you have to go against the herd.

Well put jabo38.  I have just started paying some attention the the alts and I'm of the opinion that there is some manipulation taking place. 
So that does not surprise me that you'd suggest such deals taking place.  When you think of whales and miners and the potential of shady deals taking place it puts a lot of things in perspective, when looking for a alternative coin to invest in I'd say.  Not to mention the exchanges is just another aspect to take under consideration.

https://i.imgur.com/kX2Tqm6.png

Yes, highly correlated = 0.841...
Above is a carefully constructed semi-cap weighted Alt Index (blue) vs BTC (gold)...
That had about 12 alts summer 2013... and now 22 alts summer 2014.

A coin is not added to the above index unless it's been on an exchange for 4-8 weeks...
So you are missing all the early mining gains and listing pumps...
Even without the real action experts capture... Alts as a universe have kept up with BTC gains.

There is a concept "fooled by randomness"...
Where most people own a few alts and use the "eye test"...
Then develop this "feeling" that BTC/Alts are negatively correlated... but it's mostly lags.

I have my doubts about market manulipation by the miners.

The miners have (usually) invested a lot in their machines.

IMO they would be the last set of people who would attempt to manulipate the market as market manulipation only decreases trust in the coin.

Because people sell alts to cash out BTC.

Just to clarify a little, when I say miners I mean larger shady groups not everybody mining in general.  It just seems likely to me some coordinated effort to profit from others not in the know is a likely possibility.

I think they overall trust wouldn't be lost in the coin just short term trust.  When people panic sell which they tend to do the manipulators then have an advantage because they initiated the problem in the first place.