Bitcoin Forum

We started going up 2 weeks ago and we're just about 50% higher. It's good, it's nice but look at the charts. February 1st was way higher. So we're lower than where we were at 2014's start. Of course money can be made on price swings or bubbles but looking at the bigger picture, seems nothing fundamental changed. Not that many new people buy bitcoin.

If we were to repeat last bubble, a 9x increase in 2-months timeframe, we should be at 4500 this summer. But I think chances for this to happen are very slim. Too much new money have to be poured into and not that many newcomers into bitcoin yet.

I am very curious where the price will be on July 2nd. I'll have to do a big decision then and a powerful Bitcoin might help me. A good price will be 1000 zone. Based only on last bubble, where price double first time in about 1mo, we could be there by my due date. But this might be also the end of a mini-bubble, deflating from 680s to 400s again.

$ 400? The energetic cost to mine 1 BTC on the date you mention exceed more than $ 400 for those which do not think anyone in their right mind would sell BTC below $ 600 if you want to cover at least the cost to manufacture.

All that means is if price gets that low some inefficient miners will shut down hardware.

Keep in mind, February's price wasn't real.  Now everyone knows it was fake.  Bubble caused by Bots.  Did they even prove that it wasn't really "China" pushing the price up?   I keep hearing conflicting information.

That doesn't matter though.  The point is the price was not real.  Whether it was speculation or bots or china.

Now ... the price is likely much more "real".  Much more substantial.  The industry news (wait until you hear the announcement coming next week...) is getting better and better.

Maybe 50% increase now has a lot more meaning than February's price.  In hindsight at least.

-B-

What announcement ?

A friend who is the marketing manager for a major hotel / events chain in Miami (they hosted the Bitcoin conference attendees at the Miami conference, including the Ethereum team, etc) posted on his facebook this week that there will be a significant announcement "monday" related to another major major business accepting Bitcoin.   He feels the current price will be a thing of the past.  

EDIT:  since he posted it publicly, here you go:   https://www.facebook.com/jeffturgeau.clevelander

I challenged him pointing out that the Paypal/Ebay announcement was pretty friggen huge, and the price didn't really go anywhere except up 20-30 dollars. Sometimes people say the price will skyrocket, but they don't necessarily have good judgment on that, and it doesn't happen.  They think it should go up, but other things are at play and it barely moves, even if the news is good.  We've seen that *a lot* recently.  

I decided to buy anyway.  When it dipped to $635 last night for a quick second.

-B-

The last days were amazing but 10k is too much (at least this year), but 3000-4000 is a reasonable value for the next peak of bitcoin.

How did you manage that?

I was watching Wally The Wall Guy push that market down towards support line and it took a 500 BTC market order to touch the trendline at $635 with a flurry of smaller orders taking Bitcoin right back to $640s almost instantly thereafter. I guessed that 500 BTC followed by the small market orders into Ask Wall at $640 was indeed Wally The Wall Guy?

could you Elaborate and specify this announcement?

the people in the hotel laundry have been playing jacks for bitcoin. the hotel laundry is filled with illegal workers.
Monday, they will all be arrested and their bitcoins will be held by the police for illegal gambling.

there's your announcement, right there.

my belief is this;
2014 end of year average = $700. Which means, there is still a small incline to be realised.

This seems like some great news incomming...i hope they will be big enought and thank you for the info.

Sorry I didn't clarify.  Nor was I being exact.  I was sitting here sweating with Coinbase and Bitcoinwisdom on my screen, trying to decide when I should pull the trigger on 6 BTC.  With Clevelander Hotel guys words ringing in my head, I saw Bitstamp dip to something like $640, and as always, Coinbase overcharges, so they were at about $642.  Then Bitstamp dropped to $635 or whatever the number was... and I bought on Coinbase at that moment.  I think I got $639 on Coinbase, and with their markup im sure it equaled about $641-ish.  But it was "when bitcoin was going to $635" in general.  Anyways you're right, it wasn't but a minute or three later that it was back up again.  My last two personal "predictions" have been dead on (the $680 crash and now this).  But its nothing more than dumb luck.  


What you see from Jeff on his Facebook is all I got.  Plus a hint from him that it related to a major business announcing that it "plans" to incorporate bitcoin.  I assume in the future.   He said: "I only have minor details and can't release the name of the company until it's public. It's that big."  He said he didn't have details yet on how they'd be incorporating it.  Sounds to me like there may be more than one "way" for them to use it, which implies its a business that does many types of commerce.  Geez.  What if its Western Union?  Im sure its not.  All they do is talk sh*t.  

But to be honest I am not convinced it will affect the price much.   If I had to pick even one announcement in the history of Bitcoin that should have shot us to the moon, it would have been Ebay/PayPal, and the price didn't even budge.  As always, BTC is long term.  People screwing with the price for now, and speculators.  In the meantime the foundation for a solid value is being built with all these announcements.

-B-

Well another question is how much the price of electricity is to generate a Bitcoin presently is around $500-600
It should probably rise a bit more with all the merchant adoption over the last few weeks
I would say to look forward to a rise from here but your right it might not be a multiple of 6 to 7 but realistically around 2 to 2.5

I don't disagree with the sentiment in the OP. This could fizzle out here, or we could take another stab at the $700 zone and fizzle out. I at least can't be too sure that we are heading for another test of $1000 or an ATH.

Perhaps that announcement played a role in Bitcoin's recent rise before it was announced?

Buy the rumour, sell the news n all that.

Mmm but now we are in a time where the price moves around facts not news.. and until we are not generalized merchants adoption like ebay, or the etf of the twins is stablished,

HIstorically, once bitcoin's price has stabilised, it's not long before a new bubble forms. with the exception of 2012, but that was after the 2011 bubble which went way over the exponential trend. Will this happen again? Who knows, but there is no shortage of rich investors talking about bitcoin with interest publicly. There is no shortage of cheap money, the US is printing around $70 Billion a month, Japan is printing at over twice that rate and the EU will have to start printing soon.  Also ATHs haven't been tested and resisted much before, they tend to get smashed once the price gets close because everyone stops selling. I have no idea what will happen, but if we do stay inside the same exponential channel, that will end up with a new peak around august going to 3-5k.

Probably not $10k in 2014 but $5k is definitely possible.

thanks BittBurger
yeah, your are absolute right BTC ist longterm and therefore Long (not short Trading)

But the difference is that this price climb has been far more stable than last years bull run. A sign of things to come perhaps?

Has it been? (Honest question) I was around for the July rise, and the November bubble, but I'm not sure if this feels more or less stable, to be honest. Felt pretty fast, the rise from $440.

November felt radically fast to me (I wasn't around in July, unfortunately).
I remember making a snapshot of the first times I saw 500, 600, 700, and so on, and it felt like it was one per day...

Markets are fast to move in Bitcoin when they move but I know that feeling
Sitting around 600 then 500 then 400 then quickly going up to 650 again
Price changes are fast

The charts look ready for some China FUD. I'm not saying it's coming, but it's been absent for too long.

A pause in prices and its time for you to FUD you mean?

I don't think China FUD will come.
But I agree that the chart seems vunerable to bad news.

So, what's up about the big announcement from the man working on company event organization?

What were your predictions for 2013 after the 260$ crash?

I guess he decided that he liked the boring bitcoin chart.
Either that or he's building up expectation, so that the bubble grows faster when news come ;D

I just logged in now (4:30pm eastern time) to sift through Google news to see if there was anything. 

If I had an announcement for my business - and it was going to be "announced Monday". ... i would expect that they're calling press people.

Which means tuesday, wends thursd for it to get into articles?   

Not sure how they were going to "announce" it unless someone is going to come to Reddit or here, and write a post.

Otherwise, its news outlets.  I'll ask Jeff...

-B-

hello bitburger, matt just made a thread about this. would you mind telling what news this is all about?

About false hope and matt selling his coins which he describes as "im long, trust me".

Scroll up.

Nobody knows what its all about yet.   Might be nothing (which I put in the first post).  But the marketing manager at Clevelander Miami was on a conference call with BitPay last week and claims its big news.

One mans big is another mans blah.  We shall see.

I just asked Jeff where they plan to announce.   Cuz its end of business Monday now.

-B-

Your friend is a bullshitter.

Oh alright, thanks (I probably should have checked the entire post first @scroll up comment)

Do not underestimate them, you can make a lot of money that way.

I very much doubt we will see 1000 now, more likely it will go down to 500.

Going that much down again would be following an extremely different pattern than the last two bubbles.
Which is of course possible, but I wouldn't call it likely.

Well, I don't really find your data set of "2" very convincing. When we have such little historical data, betting on current price action looking like the last 2 bubbles may be a horrible bet...

the biggest L.O.L. ever. 597 again. How do you comment?

Oh goody! *execute purchase order for cheaper coin*

Questions?