Bitcoin Forum

Any wild speculation out there?

More than likely someone who's not even alive today.

satoshi mined the first one, he will mine the last  ;D

Miners from year 2140 :P
but who? that is very wild speculation if we guess it from now
another similiar thread
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=173145.0

Eligius :D

Wait a second, I'm confused now is it 2140 or 2040? Many people say either one or the other year. Who's right?

how come satoshi alive for more than 150 years?
maybe satoshi's grandchildren mine it with solo mining :P
check my link above ;D

Hari Seldon

By that point there'll be a Satoshi religion. The final coin will be hand calculated by a congregation of billions all gathered in the grand canyon.

The difficulty will be so high that a pool will mine it, not one individual.

And what is the final reward for a block? 4 coins? 1 coin?

EDIT: read in the other thread the reward will be near zero, so… yeah.

I often wonder whether bitcoin will still be around in year 2140?

I believe in cryptos. They will be around in 2140, but bitcoin as we know today might not be alive. Technologies will be much more advanced and bitcoin may have been phased out by newer generations of cryptos. Bitcoin would be so "old tech", they dropped backward compatibility to it. The last block reward could not be mined because there the new internet could not accommodate the bitcoin protocol...

Not an improbable scenario. 100 years is an extremely long time for techoolgies.

Think smaller. much smaller :)

Silly thread, but with a simple answer: nobody, it won't be worth mining.

My son will, He is still yet to be born but it is a very good chance it will be him

As you're so confident of it failing, I think someone, somewhere will mine the last fraction using the processors in their futuristic silvery cape and then sink into their hot tub on Titan whilst having a nostalgic chuckle.

Someone without a clue posting utter crap as if it was fact?

On the spec sub forum?

NEVER

or her  ;D

Correct  ;D

Guys i guess by last coin he means last block worth 1 coin?

As stated in the above postings, the last block will have a reward of much less than 1 coin.

If you care for a word problem:
The block reward is planned to halve every 4 years for 132 years with an original block reward of 50. How many coins will be issued in the last block?

If the miners switch off their mining rigs, who or what then powers the Bitcoin p2p network?

The Blockchain will be phucking humongous by then.

There are 33 halvings.  The last reward would be 50 / 2^33.

My grandson with my relic  S1 miner he restored for shits and giggles.

Ah, close and the error is probably one of semantics. But there will only be 32 halving events. The last block will generate right before a 33rd halving.

I know you probably are talking about 2140 scenario, but the last full block with greater than 1 bitcoin will be mined in 2028 (1.5625) then 2032 is 0.78125

I just realized something. We have only been through 1 halving and the next one is 2 yrs away. Bitcoin seems very recent (by this standpoint)

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Controlled_supply

2009 50
2013 25
2016 12.5
2020 6.25
2024 3.125
2028 1.5625
2032 0.78125

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
...just for the fun of it. Lets say price is 640 and assuming that we double per halving, then in 2016 we get 1280. 2020 we get 2560. 2024 we get 5120
2028 we get 10240

(above was just for fun and not to be taken seriously because of its various flaws...just felt a little mathy)

Sorry then seems like i misunderstood the question  ::)

My mistake. I misread your post.

Unless there no transactions there will be a mining reward infinately (or at least as long as there is an interest in bitcoin).
Its just the "printing money out of thin air" that will stop.

Well, assuming there are no changes. Far to many protocol changes needed anway (e.g. block size). So basicly the promise "no more bitcoins newly mined after 2140" is worth about as much as if the USA today said no more "money printing after 2140".

Maybe bitcoin in 2140 will be replaced by a new criptocurrency who knows, but the last btc will be mined by Satoshi's children.

Ok, there is a fixed rate at which bitcoins will be created. It is public knowledge and millions of investors put money into the system taking that factor as one of the more important considerations.

The only motivation for increasing the BTC creation schedule is to pull some kind of heist to allot new BTC to miners who have colluded amongst themselves and the core developers to defraud the entire bitcoin ecosystem. The entirety of the bitcoin ecosystem would revolt and this would mean the end of bitcoin. It won't happen for similar reasons as to why the 51% attack won't happen.

The USG gets away with it because they convinced a less informed population to accept their system before they understood the implications. Today, we understand the implications of modifying the BTC allocation and there is no way BTC users would stand for it.

P.S. There is a big difference between a block reward and transaction fees.

0b100101010000001011111001000000000

thats your starting block reward in satoshis
every 210k blocks bitwise shift it right (i.e. drop the rightmost digit)
thats your new block reward

eg 8th operation in approx 25 years or so...

0b1001010100000010111110010 = 19531250 satoshis = 0.1953125 BTC

and finally after 32 operations in approx 2136 you are left with
0b1
the last block reward is 1 satoshi

the final bitwise shift in approx 2140 leaves you with zero

even the most cursory review of blockchain reward mechanism would lead to the understanding that fees become more important than block reward long before this happens.

if people read just half as much as they posted this place would be half as spammy and 4 times smarter.

+a billion or so :)

2140, some of us may still be alive by then; our children will still be there

Then give us some more to read!

What happens to the Bitcoin network when it starts to become uneconomical to mine the very last possible Bitcoins?

transaction fees take over as block reward long before block reward becomes marginal.

thats the kind of thing people should be worried about, whether that assumption plays out, adjusting their risk/reward accordingly

seriously all this stuff is bitcoin 101, even *I* know it !

Well I never knew that. I do now, and all that I had to do was subject myself to a mild dose of English condescension in order to find out.

So what we can deduce from that, is that Bitcoin transaction fees are one day, set to become fucking humongous? Totally ill suited to everyday transactions?

Dude that's 126 years from now... nobody on this forum or their children will still be alive.

Let's say you're only 18 years old now and hold off having a baby for 22 years when you're 40 years old.

Even in this unlikely scenario your son or daughter would be 104 years old in 2140.

What's more likely, that this particular blockchain - the first to get any real adoption- will be chugging merrily along until well into the next century, or that something else will have come along in that time? I mean, back in 1876, Bell's telephone was amazing, but I don't think it would do so well on the market now.

Things evolve, and over this kind of timespan, lack of change would be truly amazing.

There will allways be mining, its just that in the end you will get transaction fees as reward.
Judging by the price rise over the years, it should be more than enough :)

Ha, nice reference.

this.

Most likely many of our children/grandchildren.

The last bitcoin will be divided by many miners. Even now big pool share 25 bitcoins among thousands of miners. The last bitcoin will be mined in blocks with a very low rewards (couple of satoshi probably) so we can assume that 'the last bitcoin' will be mined by pretty much whoever is alive in 2140. Maybe by that time most phones will mine in the background with special integrated chips.

It's in the wiki article, which people would do well to read before investing thousands ;) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin#Overview

Subjecting yourself to condescension to find stuff like this out is optional as far as I know!

You raise a good point though, I've thought about the implications of that a lot, I've thought of side chains, prioritisation, off chain transactions as all being potential reasons why that might not be the case, but in the end it keeps coming back up as a fairly difficult 'problem' to get around.

The only thing keeping me going is that something that nobody has thought of will happen, and that from a perfectly selfish point of view 140 years is a long way off. The chance this is a precursor to another system is high. Whether that means we won't have BTTM (bitcoin to the moon) in the meantime is still anyone's guess. I think its still worth a punt. Or rather, that I need to be insured against the risk of it happening. FOMO powered 'investing' ;)

More thinking.

this kind of thing http://diginomica.com/2014/06/16/internets-disruptive-hold-tight-blockchain/ reminds me that the block chain encodes all sorts of data.

i can see a future where it is *expensive* to use the block chain for transactions, because the block chain is a very valuable resource. its a worldwide collaborative repository of information, and its extensible such that those transactions can encode all sorts of other information. that kind of authoritative repository is valuable, its a limited resource (think block size) and as such competition to use that resource will drive transaction fees.

bitcoin banks will use it for settlement. intra bank transfers will generate revenue for them, which they can use to pay for actual transaction fees on the block chain and pocket the difference. the more customers you have the more you can drive down fees. bitcoin banks can (and must) prove reserves. i expect some won't, i expect some customers might not care, i expect this is a legitimate strategy in a free market, risk is known, but you might get cheaper fees. maybe insurers will create services that cover this. all of the things that currently exist in our economy can potentially exist with bitcoin *except* inflation. a paper market for bitcoin may very well spring up, much like for gold, and people may very well speculate that all the same things are happening!

in the end though, a bitcoin will always be a bitcoin, you might keep a whole bunch under the mattress for a rainy day, but it may be that transaction fees do become so expensive as to prohibit micro transactions directly on the block chain, and so in the end we will be force to use some kind of banking service.

other solution(s) may exist, i haven't thought of anything yet, but perhaps others already have and are building them as we speak!

ask nostradamus
or check his predictions
may be you will find the answer

I will look in The Prophecies but I don't think he went that far ahead ;)

+1

It actually will be worth mining, but only because it will be accompanied by a nice bunch of transaction fees.

It will be in 2140, who knows how much will a satoshi be worth by then ;)

Bitcoin is the dinosaur of cryptos, and it took just a few years for alternative cryptos to develop.
These better cryptos will challenge bitcoin during the next years, bitcoin only has inertia and a cult following to delay the inevitable.
Eventually bitcoin will be replaced, and believing that bitcoin will still have a significant position in 2040, let alone in 2140, is wishful thinking.

Tom Bombadil.
He's always existed, he'll always exist. He'll mine that last coin for sure.

The last Satoshi may be mine by a computer lab for research purposes about Bitcoin after the value in the currency was moved to an other form

Mega - LOL  ;D

The correct answer would be that the last Bitcoin will be mined by many different people through a pool and many blocks since the last block reward will be a satoshi

It is likely that Bitcoin will be replaced, but I don't believe it will happen in a way that current holders will be completely screwed over without having plenty of time to migrate over to the new technology.

Even if everybody abandoned Bitcoin, somebody will probably still leave a mining node running till 2140 in some crypto museum hosted on a server somewhere.

Couldn't have said it better myself.
Amen to every single word.

People will no longer be interested in mining.
Some grey old fart will start up his mining desktop after a century to find out the difficulty dropped to near zero.
Last coin will be mined with CPU mining :D

when the last coin is mined in 2140, then all the miners will shut down and the network will die.

Bitcoin will still be used and will generate transactions fees. Hobby miners would still keep some equipment connected even without any reward.

nobody will mine the last bitcoin because it will have become insignificant and close to worthless within a couple of months or years at the current rate of decay.

We'll rally the V 2.0 and people like you can then ask who's mining the last 2.0-coin and the answer will be roughly the same.

Plus, the transaction fees get distributed with the mined block too. And if Bitcoin catches on, there will be MANY transactions.

Why do you bother coming here if you think Bitcoin will fail?

I'm pretty sure that no one on this forum will see it. No one will live that long ;D
There are 125+ years till it ends...

Most bitcoins will be mined long before 2140. It will take decades just to mine the last coin.