Bitcoin Forum

http://predictinator.adterrasperaspera.com/

More work needs to be done on it, but apparently my time machine works.

Nice!

It's a little scant on detail though - care to elaborate? :D

USD on the left

On the bottom, -30 through 0 is historical data, 0 through 30 is the prediction.

how do predict the value? random?

Can you make it 1000 ?

Would be nice if the historical data contains TWO lines: the actual numbers and the predicted numbers.

It basically does. Its split down the middle, past numbers are -30 through 0, future numbers are 0 through 30.

I laughed ;)

So, any details on how the predictions are made? Is there historical data from past predictions?

No historical data, I don't feel like adding any sort of db features. Just, like, screenshot or something

For posterity - the current graph predicts a big rally up starting three days from now (feb. 26.), with prices hitting 5.5-ish around feb. 28.

How are these predictions made?  Algorithmically or by-hand?

Magically.

"For amusement purposes only, not to be used for real trading"

Ahw, did I burst your bubble?  ;D

Would be epic if the graph's semi-correct ^^

so you dont want anyone to see how accurate it's past predictions have been?

You just drew that in paint didnt you?

Have you tried to import than line into the game line rider?

did the racer get stuck where the price plunge?

is it too early to start my garden?

Look at the source, its not an image, its SVG drawn by D3, a popular graphing toolkit.

And theres no past predictions because this was the first day I ran it. Its also predicting low, high, and volume as well, the graph just doesn't draw those yet.

lol, you need to make it predict better lows and highs.. right now it's predicting a huge trading range all the time.


{ avg: 6.30721081627292, min: 5.97717029571505, max: 6.68582636534018, volume: 131578.285038269, volume_adj: 0.933032931862247 },
{ avg: 6.33598841166913, min: 6.05555391021388, max: 6.59937395447541, volume: 89228.2373129519, volume_adj: 0.785357711657259 },
{ avg: 6.41077179654739, min: 6.03910318723335, max: 6.74578869292621, volume: 108922.844700112, volume_adj: 0.854033088403317 },
{ avg: 6.18726587862432, min: 5.80770199484833, max: 6.59185889633733, volume: 113371.697694707, volume_adj: 0.869546302222994 },
{ avg: 6.47914226820999, min: 6.16057628518267, max: 6.72323286114458, volume: 85413.260047896, volume_adj: 0.772054831543682 },
{ avg: 6.27209567437812, min: 5.95757302516065, max: 6.60335116667514, volume: 80036.9799200255, volume_adj: 0.753307666087896 },

so what you are saying is dont sell right now but go ahead and plant.

Thats not the bug you think it is.

Why are you taking this so seriously? :P

Update: Looks a little more refined. Still can't figure out why the price of BTC is rising so quickly on mtgox.

Better job than S3052!

Yes but what I'm saying is, to the RIGHT of the 0, we should see only one line (the prediction) whereas to the LEFT of the 0, we should see two lines (two colors) with one color showing the historical data for each data point while the other color shows what the prediction had been for that same data point.

That we can can see not only the historical data, and the prediction data, but we can see HOW THE prediction data measured up against the historical data WITHOUT having to compare to other images or data sets.

...and on the right hand side , can you add another line to predict what the predictinator will be predicting at that time? A Bitcoin Predictinator Predictinator if you will? That should increase your accuracy. Btw I did consider a Bitcoin Predictinator Predictinator Predictinator, but that would just be silly.

Yeah, but that would require me to record the prediction which requires more code than I've really wanted to put in it.

In addition, what would I record? Merely the next day? The whole 30 days is a complete prediction, so it may get the exact days wrong, but it'll get the general shape over the next 30 days right give or take. So, what you really want is for me to just allow you to predict the past on demand.

I think having the prediction lines from yesterday, a week ago, and 30 days ago would be helpful.

D3 looks really cool.  Way prettier than flot.

+1 to historical data

Looks good, we'll see if the price jumps up in a couple days eh

Yeah, but we have to get past that drop first.

Apparently, it seems if BitcoinCharts is down when my cronjob runs, my Predictinator can't download history and then doesn't update on time. Lawlz.

Well, this is interesting. It is now predicting the market is going to go down, and the market is going down.

Gasp! I wonder if the Predictinator actually works.

I've updated the algo slightly, it now fast forwards to make it stop continuing to try to predict things that already happened.

You wonder? Who wrote Bitcoin Predictinator anyway? Did it fall backwards in time from some bitcoin dominated future?

Yup, I emailed it to myself from the future.