Bitcoin Forum

I've been buying a few bitcoins a week over the past month, so my average is about $580 right now, which also happens to be the current price.

I would like to continue to buy, but with the FBI auction coming up I'm wondering what people's thoughts are on how to distribute this buying across the next month - continue picking up a few per week, wait until the auction to buy on a dip, buy most now?

It will likely be a roller coaster until after the sale.

Buy low, sell high.

I have no idea what the low will be.

I have no idea what the high will be.

The impact of that sale by the FBI is way overated.
What will be sold is equal to the quantity of Bitcoins mined in 10 days, and is considerably less than the daily trade volume.
The market can handle it. Also, it seems quite unlikely that the buyer will instantly sell all his coins on an exchange.

However, fear of the possibility of a 51% attack might indeed be a problem for people's confidence in Bitcoin, which might be bearish news.

If you're interested, I've been working on a service that tries to predict ideal buy/sell prices using neural networks. You can see the data for free here by just registering an email address http://www.btcpredictions.com/BuySellIndicator.php The strategy usually works better than buying and holding when tested on past price data, although I haven't tested it on future data very much yet.

But yeah I would say don't focus a lot on WHEN you buy but rather on what price you buy at. Hopefully this tool can maybe help you with that.

24 chart says ... tomorrow will be price $592 (Error: 1.229%  )
5 days chart  predict  $575 for tomorrow (Average Error: 2.488%)
and  finaly 20 days chart predicts $530 (7.595%)

5 Day Prediction
 19 jun $639,3

20 Day Prediction
 19 jun  $522,9

so what is the prediction ? up or down ?

The coins might sell end of June. Maybe a slight dip but then back up is my guess. I do not think any serious dumping of the 30k would happen

You're looking at the home page of my website, which is a different thing than what I was talking about. Click the link I posted.

But as far as that goes, the 20 day chart is not reliable, it's just there to see the data because it's interesting. The 5 day one is alright, and the 24 hour one is usually pretty good, although during the past day ish it has been so-so.

Another way to say that is that the FBI auction is 10x bigger then the max amount of new coins can be sold in one day.

Over the short term the price will likely fall, however over the long term it will allow more people to start using bitcoin.

That's simply false.

Price can also rise if the buyer is paying a premium for clean, governmental coins. That is even likely!

So... business as usual. Carry on!

Recommended buying strategy:

1) Work at job (or two)
2) Receive paycheck
3) Pay rent, utilities, buy food, spend nothing else
4) Buy bitcoins with any money left over
5) Goto step 1

1. Buy

I think bitcoin is a good investment over the long term, but is still not a sure thing.

I would not say you should put all of your savings into bitcoin

Whatever you do, I would not wait for the fbi sale to buy all of the bitcoins you want.
I'd start gradually buying in the days to follow, and make sure to have nice open orders to catch a flash crashin case it happens on the 27th. Just keep in mind that it might never come.

Strong support at around 400.

Current price is still fairly far from the support.

And will most probably never visit anything near 400.

How can the auction not go for a premium over the exchanges? Buying even the minimum 3k btc block costs an 8% premium on bitstamp. I cannot see any reason why the auction would EVER sell for less than the current price, and why in the name of god would anyone buy coins from the USMS then sell them on bitstamp? headasplode.jpg

In terms of a buy strategy, I would suggest buying anywhere in the mid $500s. I don't really sell that often, bit anywhere near and above $600 is obviously profitable if you just bought in the mid $500s...

I'd say stick to what you've been doing or maybe buy some a little early in case the price starts to rise up and you won't regret not getting more and won't be to mad if the price falls because you didn't commit to much at the wrong time.