Bitcoin Forum

I've been reading threads in the speculation forum and so many people think we're going to more than $3000 this summer. It seems now everyone knows the future but the future will change only because of that. So we're going nowhere.

Yeah, good news on the companies accepting bitcoin lately but every company will sell the bitcoins almost instantly. So nothing really changes, no new hoarders. Price might really drop because of this.

Nice to see Yahoo charts with Bitcoin but... almost everyone who knows how to use the internet has heard of bitcoin. This doesn't mean they''ll buy though. $600 for one unit is pretty high for most people in the world. $300 (0.5 BTC) also is.

So basically everyone awaits big pockets to enter but I'm not very convinced they will. I don't think price will move too much for a loooong time.

Sold below $600?

No.

Ahh, the age old argument that sadly holds some truth, though of course at the same time makes no sense at all :D

Where's my bits damnit?

People with big pockets are coming.

That's what people were saying when I joined this forum over a year ago. Some people speculate that the big players are already buying BTC slowly at what they consider to be the current low prices, but there's not much proof supporting that theory.

I've always suspected that people with big pockets are butthurt that they missed the boat when bitcoin was cheap. So, instead of buying in late they intend to create their own bitcoin (call it ripple or ether for example).

What you wrote is astoundingly similar to that famous Bill Gates quote:

Well, to be honest, it's probably just a myth because B. Gates denied having said that.
But I think it's worth mentioning as example of what an utterly wrong prediction can look like. :)

The Big Boys don't buy at the top of markets. That is when they sell. The Big Boys buy at the bottom of the markets and in Bitcoin's case, probably off-exchange for a rate which correlates to the spot price at the time. In this sense, if The Big Boys intend to accumulate Bitcoin, it would make sense for them to play on an exchange in order to gradually grind Bitcoin down to the floor (without murdering it) which will put them in a better negotiating position for acquiring large amounts of BTC in off-exchange transactions. Think about it.

Howdya like that paradigm!?

Not quite what you were wanting to hear was it?

So kinda like what's been happening during the past six months whilst Pantera has been accumulating $100m in bitcoin?  ;)

During which time the price have risen about x100, so maybe there was some truth in that?

at the bottom/baisse the hardboiled  have the Shares,the weak hands the fiat
at the top/hausse the hardboiled got the fiat and the weak hands the shares

Perhaps. And if it were the case, who is to say that they aren't still in the midst of their Bitcoin accumulation project? These guys can be thinking ahead in terms of 5-10 years. That is wayyy too long for the average Bitcoiner patience threshold, mine included.

although to be fair the price is 5x higher than it was this time last year

Yea right about big guys... maybe about very smart and experienced ones, but definetly not in general. Take a look at BIT Trust buys and Panthera average price... big guys was paying high price in $1150 runup, remember $1000 10k wall at stamp and sooo...

Hedge funds don't think 5-10 years ahead. The only reason they exist is to make a quick buck.

I really doubt that the big guys have become bag-holders in any serious way.

But where do I find such information?

BIT has loads of clients that have become what you consider "bag holders."
I can't find data for Pantera's specific buy prices, but the date of their first purchase was October 2013. So they have definitely been buying the run up and the run down. $96MM between 45 individuals. These are the kind of people who don't become "bag holders."

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=337486.msg6449073#msg6449073
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=337486.0
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1598389/000090266414002722/xslFormDX01/primary_doc.xml

No, over $1000 was only paid buy youngsters investing around 1k for one bitcoin  ;D. Be serious, they were paying high price.

Big boys certainly do become bagholders on certain investments.  Diversification allows for some high risk/reward investment, and sometimes that will go down, there's much less chance they'll be down overall though.

My most expensive Bitcoins were $1120. Against the advice of all the usual bulltards on here, I sold them at around $1050. Everyone who was buying Bitcoins at the end of November was paying ATH prices, but that doesn't mean everyone was holding. I would suggest that there are very very few units of Bitcoin in the world today that were bought at $1000 and weren't sold back into market.

I don't get it. Bitcoin already has made me more money this year than all my other investments combined. The returns are insane. Yet when it fails to go to the moon like you wanted... it's not going anywhere? I seriously doubt any of us is aware of any investment that is even close to the growth of bitcoin.
Chill, this is going to take years to play out.  :)

True. They've taken calculated risks and are aware they might lose. I highly doubt they would consider themselves bagholders at this point in time.