Bitcoin Forum

Every year has been around or atleast 10x increase. From watching many charts and counting the average days in between peaks etc, we seem to be off trend.

Is this the start to maybe 5x increase per ATH, some other trend, downturn etc.

Thoughts appreciated.

2012.

And the long term support trendline since Jan 2013 is not yet broken. It was tested last week, and Bitcoin would have to go to $555 for that trendline to be broken. Beneath that, is the base trendline currently hovering somewhere in the $100 range.

since I corrected my false Chart, I agree!

A trend of 10x year on year increases is never sustainable in the long term..... We will see a new trend for certain.

Going from a market cap in the millions to one over a billion is relatively easy, but having parabolic growth on a multibillion dollar market cap is not common.

to matt
Wow 555 was the trendline. Looks like we were close. I made this thread mainly because it seems that we have been at 600 ish range for a while. I remember seeing many charts in the 700-900 range around this time.
Also had another dream (where I was telling others about btc) so I guess bullish (my dreamspeculation thread doesnt get any more response (posted on it a few days ago and nothing, so its better dead lol)

to segeln
i was hoping someone say I was wrong, but I'll take the agree

to litecoinuser84
yea the sustainability is hard to predict

to dalmar
i think I saw one of your posts on some other thread. it was pretty passionate, great job

and i agree with what you said

thanks for all the comments on my many threads guys

i suppose this could be another 2012 situation with a slow increase. doesn't matter in the long run, probably good thing if it does happen as it will attract many new buyers.

A bull market is often referred to as a wall of worry. It isn't meant to be easy. The market shakes out most people on the way up, right Mat?

Bitcoin(and our beloved chart painters) loved to fuck with trendlines(lots of engineered false outbreaks and false signals) in the last months, so i guess if we should go down below 570-580 than we will probably break 555$ to create a little bit TA panic.

Obviously, it's too early to say -- we'll see in 2015. :P But I would say that, in general, all trends break, and so too will this one. Question is, when?

The rate of adoption is still increasing at an average linear rate over the past 2 years.  Price is still correlating with Metcalfe's value of number of unique addresses used per day, squared.  Thus, price can be expected to continue to increase at an exponential rate.  When the correlation with Metcalfe's value stops, or when adoption stops its linear increase, then you can expect price to stop increasing at an exponential rate.

Given the fact we expect adoption to move from linear to exponential as we near the center of the S curve, I only see Bitcoin price growth accelerating further from this point.  When we hit the center of the S curve, then we'll begin slowing down.

The 2013 bubbles (well, mania phase of the bubbles) in March-April and November-December were driven, the first by the block reward halving,
and the second by the opening of new Chinese exchanges and initial good press by Chinese media. The next block reward halving will be in 2017,
and another new wave of speculators (bagholders), willing to pay 1000+ $ (or 5000$ in the future) per bitcoin, is nowhere to be seen yet.
The exponential trend needs a lot of fiat to be sustained, that fiat doesn't magically come out of thin air.

https://www.tradingview.com/v/FrBDVR6H/

great chart (from it, looks like we are on the same trend @green and dotted green). Not sure if the trend line is the blue one (I am not that good at reading graphs)

The trend OP is referring to is definitely not the blue line.

https://www.tradingview.com/v/H30dvRc9/

Lovely chart.

No, every year it was not 10x increase. Trend from 2011 was 4x increase, accelerated 10x growth started at Jan 1st, 2013 and continues now.

sorry about that (I have not been in btcland long)

patience, we're not even close to the end of the rally yet. In fact, this is not even the beginning.

Anyone posting this trend is just shooting themselves in the foot because actual TA analysts would see that this trend is clearly trading weakly and likely to fail. You should base bitcoin going up on something besides 'look at this half baked line I drew on the chart of the past 1-2 years'.

But you don't deny that Bitcoin has been bouncing off and/or testing it very frequently off late, and for that reason alone, this trendline and the likely psychological implications of it cannot be ignored?

Sssshhhh, don't burst the bubble!