Bitcoin Forum

Economy => Speculation => Topic started by: bitcoinsrus on June 20, 2014, 04:48:08 PM



Title: Uncertainty for June 27th
Post by: bitcoinsrus on June 20, 2014, 04:48:08 PM
The days leading up to (and after) June 27th (when 30k coins are auctioned off) have had many possible outcomes (from comment posts by others).

Some say the price will increase, since the auction losers would try to accumulate on exchanges feeling as if they missed out (pushing up the price)

Some say the price would decrease because the winner might dump on exchanges (if they get a big discount).

The official sale might lead into the beginning of July (since payment takes a while etc).
News on who bought it and for how much may or may not even be made public.

Would the best scenario be for nothing to happen and for the current price to account for this news.

Thoughts appreciated (and watch the song - My OCD by Rhett & Link) in my signature  ;D)


Title: Re: Uncertainty for June 27th
Post by: okthen on June 20, 2014, 05:02:58 PM
I don't know what will happen on June 27th (price wise).
I really think the coins will be sold above market price (because of the advantages of buying out of an exchange and such a large volume without influencing price).
After the 27th, I believe we'll reach the moon :)


Title: Re: Uncertainty for June 27th
Post by: cooldgamer on June 20, 2014, 05:06:08 PM
The only reason we would go down is newbies thinking there is a reason to panic.  The coins will go from HODLer to HODLer and nothing will change.  If they were going to sell immediately, they wouldn't go through all the trouble of buying from the feds.  Probably gonna be a little bit of turbulence and then back to the uptrend :)


Title: Re: Uncertainty for June 27th
Post by: Benjig on June 20, 2014, 05:06:42 PM
The trend will go up after that auction, so we still have 7 days to buy cheap coins. or 7 days of relatively calm


Title: Re: Uncertainty for June 27th
Post by: skottiejay on June 20, 2014, 05:10:33 PM
If coins go down, then they will almost immediately make a upward turn in my prediction, not that I'm hoping they do (actually I am because I would like to buy some) but the price usually stabilizes at least for a while after something like this. I'd be worried about whoever is auctioning off the coin will be keeping track of who buys the coin for other reasons.


Title: Re: Uncertainty for June 27th
Post by: Bios Optimus on June 20, 2014, 05:12:47 PM
If coins go down, then they will almost immediately make a upward turn in my prediction, not that I'm hoping they do (actually I am because I would like to buy some) but the price usually stabilizes at least for a while after something like this. I'd be worried about whoever is auctioning off the coin will be keeping track of who buys the coin for other reasons.

I kinda hope we have a little dip I get paid on Mon so I can buy more coins.


Title: Re: Uncertainty for June 27th
Post by: cypherdoc on June 20, 2014, 05:13:13 PM
the only thing certain about the end of June is that Professor Bitcorn is going to be wrong.


Title: Re: Uncertainty for June 27th
Post by: skottiejay on June 20, 2014, 05:15:35 PM
http://www.gaypatriot.net/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/professor-farnsworth.jpg

But seriously, I wouldn't be so worried about it to be honest. Bitcoin has made so many dives and so many rally's again that I would just hold, BTC will be around forever. When I first started with it in 2011 they were $14 and I could have kicked myself for not buying then, but I didn't have more knowledge in the first place.

At any rate, we should just be extremely cautious, if something happens it happens otherwise just let 'er ride!


Title: Re: Uncertainty for June 27th
Post by: MatTheCat on June 20, 2014, 06:35:08 PM
The trend will go up after that auction, so we still have 7 days to buy cheap coins. or 7 days of relatively calm

I admire your confidence.

I wish I had it.

But my instincts tell me that for reasons that absolutely nothing to do with these FBI coins, we shall test that long term trendline currently at $560 and my common sense is telling me that we have been testing that trendline much too frequently of late to be so complacent that it will hold. I am sure it will hold and we will get a little bounce of it. But what if the bounce isn't very convincing and Bitcoin comes right back down to it and on that occasion, it doesn't hold and we get a full text book 61.8% retracement from the $420-$680 rise, all the way down to $520? How will holders and traders react once that line is breached? What about all those leveraged longs paying 0.2% -03% interest per day on the cost of their positions? What will those guys do?


Title: Re: Uncertainty for June 27th
Post by: bitcoinsrus on June 20, 2014, 06:37:35 PM
The trend will go up after that auction, so we still have 7 days to buy cheap coins. or 7 days of relatively calm

I admire your confidence.

I wish I had it.

But my instincts tell me that for reasons that absolutely nothing to do with these FBI coins, we shall test that long term trendline currently at $560 and my common sense is telling me that we have been testing that trendline much too frequently of late to be so complacent that it will hold. What if it doesn't hold, and we get a full text book 61.8% retracement from the $420-$680 rise, all the way down to $520. How will holders and traders react once that line is breached? What about all those leveraged longs paying 0.2% -03% interest per day on the cos of their positions? What will those guys do?

Since its already at the top, I'll comment. And thanks for bumping, was about to lock  ;D lol
Yea its really steady and now sub 600. The whole selling does not seem like a big thing to me (like I thought it was last week) but it seems to be going down, now recovering, so its hard to guess what could happen


Title: Re: Uncertainty for June 27th
Post by: MatTheCat on June 20, 2014, 06:38:24 PM
Since its already at the top, I'll comment. And thanks for bumping, was about to lock  ;D lol
Yea its really steady and now sub 600. The whole selling does not seem like a big thing to me (like I thought it was last week) but it seems to be going down, now recovering, so its hard to guess what could happen

Why do you always lock your threads? Don't do that.


Title: Re: Uncertainty for June 27th
Post by: Junko on June 20, 2014, 06:48:12 PM
the only thing certain about the end of June is that Professor Bitcorn is going to be wrong.
^this

As far as the auction goes, some say - or rather, quietly know - that just as in every other pre-dated event/news, whatever the outcome is, it will have already been priced in. In other words, don't be surprised when that magical date of the event comes (including the days following the actual announcement, if any, of who won) when nothing major happens to the price in either direction. At least not in direct relation to that anticipated event. Not to say some other event couldn't coincidentally occur at the same time.


Title: Re: Uncertainty for June 27th
Post by: bitcoinsrus on June 20, 2014, 06:49:55 PM
Since its already at the top, I'll comment. And thanks for bumping, was about to lock  ;D lol
Yea its really steady and now sub 600. The whole selling does not seem like a big thing to me (like I thought it was last week) but it seems to be going down, now recovering, so its hard to guess what could happen

Why do you always lock your threads? Don't do that.

The reason I lock my threads is mainly because I do not want to clutter this speculation forum (I like to make posts a lot...some say too much). I did when I first came on here (one time I had 4 top post polls (I think you commented on all 4) and blitz locked two and pm'ed me asking me not to do that which was nice of him to let me know)

And most importantly, I know when my topics are dead. I think in my past 4 posts, 2 of them got like 200 and 4-5 comments (=dead and unsuccessful post) but the other 2 got like many comments and many views. I try to keep those up longer.  

So mainly to not clutter because I post a lot. And to erase my pathetic posts which get no comments and try to get a post with many comments = winning  ;D
-----------------------------------------------------
And for anyone reading this and want some advice on what I found out (about making successful posts).

Look at my popular posts. Its mostly a few words and the description asks the commentors for specific things. (Like for example: Doomsday June 27th or something as a catchy title. Then description: enter your thoughts etc, make long and insightful.)

And also, understand most of the people on here are 30+, male, intelligent and do not like bs posts (which I found out when I used to do troll posts....you guys know you liked that ;) - but those days are over. I try to make insightful posts)

I see a lot of you posters (new guys) repeating what has already been said (and I know i am hypocritical....this is the like 2-3th post on june 27th i made. - but I ask it in a diff way and build on what other comments say)



Title: Re: Uncertainty for June 27th
Post by: Ibian on June 20, 2014, 06:59:38 PM
The trend will go up after that auction, so we still have 7 days to buy cheap coins. or 7 days of relatively calm

I admire your confidence.

I wish I had it.

But my instincts tell me that for reasons that absolutely nothing to do with these FBI coins, we shall test that long term trendline currently at $560 and my common sense is telling me that we have been testing that trendline much too frequently of late to be so complacent that it will hold. I am sure it will hold and we will get a little bounce of it. But what if the bounce isn't very convincing and Bitcoin comes right back down to it and on that occasion, it doesn't hold and we get a full text book 61.8% retracement from the $420-$680 rise, all the way down to $520? How will holders and traders react once that line is breached? What about all those leveraged longs paying 0.2% -03% interest per day on the cost of their positions? What will those guys do?
You still don't know what it means to hold. I wonder if you actually have the ability to comprehend it. If the price drops, WE BUY MORE! It's that simple.