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Title: The chart thread -- predict the price out to 2014 Post by: ineededausername on February 27, 2012, 04:44:01 AM Serious charts only, please. (as in, you honestly believe it has >10% chance of happening)
You must draw only one line per chart, all the way out to January 1, 2014! (or as far as you can draw it without hitting $50) Base chart: http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=1118&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=360&i=12-hour&c=1&s=2010-01-01&e=2014-01-01&Prev=&Next=&t=S&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=1&cv=0&ps=0&l=1&p=0& Sadly, this chart is limited to the <$50 range... nothing I can do about that. Draw away! I will be looking at all of the charts in the future, and if I find a particularly accurate one (or enough people nominate one), I will be sending a 5 BTC tip :) Title: Re: The chart thread -- predict the price out to 2014 Post by: mb300sd on February 27, 2012, 05:12:11 AM Title: Re: The chart thread -- predict the price out to 2014 Post by: Hunterbunter on February 27, 2012, 06:01:02 AM Title: Re: The chart thread -- predict the price out to 2014 Post by: Bro on February 27, 2012, 09:46:51 AM give a template please
edit: ah I didnt see the scroll bar, sorry here's mine: http://i42.tinypic.com/20ihxnc.png Title: Re: The chart thread -- predict the price out to 2014 Post by: naima53 on February 27, 2012, 11:33:41 AM i am seriously, this very may be
http://i4.imageban.ru/out/2012/02/27/6b12b4d42941aa18b0849b76fbebfe4e.jpg Title: Re: The chart thread -- predict the price out to 2014 Post by: waspoza on February 27, 2012, 12:00:54 PM +1 At the end of this year there will be huge bubble. Title: Re: The chart thread -- predict the price out to 2014 Post by: Bro on February 27, 2012, 12:48:56 PM At the end of this year there will be huge bubble. Why ? we're assuming there will be more demand because of the 50% drop in the rate of bitcoin production (not too sure about wording here), on top of which there could easily be a speculative bubble Title: Re: The chart thread -- predict the price out to 2014 Post by: proudhon on February 27, 2012, 01:41:06 PM having a bubble and then busting is money grabbing so there is all world incentive to make a bubble and then burst it Yeah! Let's fuck this thing up! Title: Re: The chart thread -- predict the price out to 2014 Post by: N12 on February 27, 2012, 01:48:16 PM Yeah! Let's fuck this thing up! I bet you it will happen again eventually.Just watch out for the Bruce Wagner indicator and you know what’s up. Title: Re: The chart thread -- predict the price out to 2014 Post by: waspoza on February 27, 2012, 02:30:45 PM At the end of this year there will be huge bubble. Why ? Before block reward halving ppl will be like OMG no more coins, grab em while u still can!!!1 And price will go on secret rocket. ;) Title: Re: The chart thread -- predict the price out to 2014 Post by: proudhon on February 27, 2012, 02:43:58 PM At the end of this year there will be huge bubble. Why ? Before block reward halving ppl will be like OMG no more coins, grab em while u still can!!!1 And price will go on secret rocket. ;) I don't think that's going to happen. Title: Re: The chart thread -- predict the price out to 2014 Post by: waspoza on February 27, 2012, 02:54:16 PM At the end of this year there will be huge bubble. Why ? Before block reward halving ppl will be like OMG no more coins, grab em while u still can!!!1 And price will go on secret rocket. ;) I don't think that's going to happen. Its very probable imo. Especially with a little help from media with headlines like "Soon bitcoin producion will be cut in half", people will start thinking to jumping on board hoping to make nice profit. Title: Re: The chart thread -- predict the price out to 2014 Post by: Technomage on February 27, 2012, 04:02:37 PM The reward split will undoubtedly cause an increase in price. I don't see how it wouldn't, it essentially halves the inflation rate of Bitcoin. That will boost market confidence regarding the value of bitcoins.
How big of an increase it will cause, that is a good question. I guess we'll see. Title: Re: The chart thread -- predict the price out to 2014 Post by: Bro on February 27, 2012, 04:42:07 PM I think the floor is pretty solid between 2$ and 4$, with plenty of people ready to buy all the cheap coins, and that won't change with the reward drop. So if there's big fluctuations it will be between that and 10$.
Can anyone come up with a theory of how the 50% reward drop could lower the prices? Title: Re: The chart thread -- predict the price out to 2014 Post by: proudhon on February 27, 2012, 04:45:56 PM I think the floor is pretty solid between 2$ and 4$, with plenty of people ready to buy all the cheap coins, and that won't change with the reward drop. So if there's big fluctuations it will be between that and 10$. Can anyone come up with a theory of how the 50% reward drop could lower the prices? There is no solid floor in bitcoin. It's risk all the way down. Title: Re: The chart thread -- predict the price out to 2014 Post by: DeathAndTaxes on February 27, 2012, 04:50:27 PM This might very well lead to huge oscillations rather than an actual bubble. I wish Satoshi had built a smoothly decaying reward curve instead of these horrible 50% hard steps. Hindsight but this. I guess some of the "fear" and uncertainty comes from it never having happened before. The subsequent drops should produce less ripples. It could have been mostly avoided with an exponential decay function. Say dropping 10% every 26,208 blocks (13 difficulty adjustments or ~6 months). Today block reward would be ~32 BTC per block and this summer it would be ~29 BTC per block and we would hit the ~25 BTC per block around the same time but after having gone through 5 prior smaller drops. The first drop would have been the largest and even that would have been only 5 BTC. Oh well. Hindsight. Title: Re: The chart thread -- predict the price out to 2014 Post by: Bro on February 27, 2012, 04:58:51 PM There is no solid floor in bitcoin. It's risk all the way down. only if a glitch is discovered like they are now, bitcoins are useful and have a commodity value, so there is some sort of floor Title: Re: The chart thread -- predict the price out to 2014 Post by: bitcoinBull on March 01, 2012, 10:45:31 PM I think the floor is pretty solid between 2$ and 4$, with plenty of people ready to buy all the cheap coins, and that won't change with the reward drop. So if there's big fluctuations it will be between that and 10$. Can anyone come up with a theory of how the 50% reward drop could lower the prices? There is no solid floor in bitcoin. It's risk all the way down. The floor is related to exchange volume. The only way price can go "all the way down" would be if volume fades to a trickle. In order for someone with a short position to take a profit, they have to buy back in. Don't forget that. Title: Re: The chart thread -- predict the price out to 2014 Post by: Hunterbunter on March 01, 2012, 10:58:14 PM And to be fair to The Man : he did anticipate a very large number of future aspects of bitcoin and engineered accordingly. As a matter of fact, in terms of anticipating problems the system would face and designing accordingly, I find his feat so amazing that it has lead me to strongly suspect "Satoshi" to be an actual team of people: a single guy designing in a vacuum something so deeply rooted in the practical just doesn't compute. I quite agree with you...there is far too much super-brain here for one person...even Einstein had people look over his numbers. The sudden disappearance and everything else leans towards orchestration, imho, not necessarily with sinister motives, however. And for the thread: CHARTS OR IT DIDN'T HAPPEN. plsktnkubai. Title: Re: The chart thread -- predict the price out to 2014 Post by: Elwar on March 01, 2012, 11:31:01 PM Honest assessment. A lot of up and down through the summer, a lot of second guessing and jumping around going up until the end of 2013 when mining pay out halves, then a steady climb up with some drops followed by steady climb to 50 by 2014.
http://i43.tinypic.com/2inar.png Title: Re: The chart thread -- predict the price out to 2014 Post by: istar on March 01, 2012, 11:58:50 PM I think the floor is pretty solid between 2$ and 4$, with plenty of people ready to buy all the cheap coins, and that won't change with the reward drop. So if there's big fluctuations it will be between that and 10$. Can anyone come up with a theory of how the 50% reward drop could lower the prices? Yes, miners leaving when price has not rised, most investors having bought, "while still cheap" just waiting for price to rise, when it dont miners leave, causing lack of faith from investors and triggering panic, causing price to go even lower and even more miners to leave and Bitcoin goes really low. I believe we might have to wait 4,5 five years for Bitcoin to stabilize. There are 4 years ahead with 3500 new coins each day having to be bought to keep up. |
