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Bitcoin => Bitcoin Discussion => Topic started by: ripper234 on February 27, 2012, 09:48:55 AM



Title: Do you have ZERO Bitcoins? Why?
Post by: ripper234 on February 27, 2012, 09:48:55 AM
http://www.quora.com/What-are-some-reasons-a-lot-of-rational-people-dont-buy-just-1-Bitcoin


Title: Re: Do you have ZERO Bitcoins? Why?
Post by: Gabi on February 27, 2012, 02:40:28 PM
Buying a few is a battle against taxes, fees etc. Move 10$ to mtgox... mmhh... i end up spending what, 50$?


Title: Re: Do you have ZERO Bitcoins? Why?
Post by: rjk on February 27, 2012, 02:47:58 PM
Buying a few is a battle against taxes, fees etc. Move 10$ to mtgox... mmhh... i end up spending what, 50$?
For me, it costs all of 25 cents to use Dwolla. But if that isn't an option, the fee schedule for other locations could be different.

Actually, Dwolla transfers of less than $10 are free, so it costs me nothing. But any amount greater than $10 is only 25 cents.


Title: Re: Do you have ZERO Bitcoins? Why?
Post by: cbeast on February 27, 2012, 02:55:40 PM
Willful ignorance and state supported FUD. When pundits realize that the bubbles are going to be much smaller now, they will feel more confident in price stability.


Title: Re: Do you have ZERO Bitcoins? Why?
Post by: proudhon on February 27, 2012, 02:56:53 PM
So, bitcoins are lottery tickets.  Cool.


Title: Re: Do you have ZERO Bitcoins? Why?
Post by: ripper234 on February 27, 2012, 03:03:11 PM
So, bitcoins are lottery tickets.  Cool.

Yeah, expect that by my calculations, the expected value of each is greater than its current price, unlike lottery where the house always wins.


Title: Re: Do you have ZERO Bitcoins? Why?
Post by: proudhon on February 27, 2012, 03:31:56 PM
http://www.quora.com/What-are-some-reasons-a-lot-of-rational-people-dont-buy-just-1-Bitcoin

I think the answer to the article is simple: inertia.

It took the internet - one of the most useful thing ever invented in the whole
history of mankind - 20 years to go from being functional to being used by a
sizable fraction of humanity.

I'm pretty sure the story is similar if not longer for other useful technologies:
running water in the house, steam, electricity, the lightbulb, the printing press,
the computer, etc ...

In terms of recent, large-scale successes, Facebook and Google are probably
the things that spread the fastest in the last ~20 years. And both each took
close to 10 years to reach planet-wide adoption.

In other words: it simply boils down to the fact that most people have no clue
of most of what's happening in the world around them, and only start paying
attention to something new once a at least 5 people in their close social circle
has finally hit them squarely on the head with it.

You want to see bitcoin succeed ? Talk about it around you at every possible
opportunity, show it to your friends, demand payment in bitcoins for ever little
transaction you do. If you want to start a forest fire proper, you must light small
fires in as many possible corners of the forest as possible.

And yes: you're going to get weird looks from people who'll be thinking "what
a dork". Bear with the pain. People said the same thing to early internet adopters.
Who's a dork now ?



Hopefully 10 years from now I can proudly wear a t-shirt that says "Bitcoin: Who's a dork now, bitch!?".


Title: Re: Do you have ZERO Bitcoins? Why?
Post by: dayfall on February 27, 2012, 04:04:17 PM
I offer to give Bitcoins away to friends and family.  No takers.  Bitcoin is still too technical to use, or rather it is just too different. 

"Does my computer have to be on for me to receive Bitcoins?"
"GAAAAAA!!!!"


Title: Re: Do you have ZERO Bitcoins? Why?
Post by: ripper234 on February 27, 2012, 04:08:47 PM
I offer to give Bitcoins away to friends and family.  No takers.  Bitcoin is still too technical to use, or rather it is just too different. 

"Does my computer have to be on for me to receive Bitcoins?"
"GAAAAAA!!!!"

Try harder.

I personally got 4 friends and 2 family members to buy some.
One friend lost his wallet when he formatted his hard drive (of course I taught everyone how to back up ... didn't listen).

But I believe the others still have their BTC safely secured.


Title: Re: Do you have ZERO Bitcoins? Why?
Post by: Gabi on February 27, 2012, 04:10:48 PM
Giving free bitcoins is not the way to do. Why? Cause they will think "meh you gave me bitcoin for free, so they are worth nothing, that's why you give them to ppl for free"


Title: Re: Do you have ZERO Bitcoins? Why?
Post by: ripper234 on February 27, 2012, 04:15:46 PM
Try harder.

I personally got 4 friends and 2 family members to buy some.
One friend lost his wallet when he formatted his hard drive (of course I taught everyone how to back up ... didn't listen).

But I believe the others still have their BTC safely secured.

Ah, and there was another friend who wanted to buy BTC from me. I wanted to sell him some, but my wife strictly vetoed it.
"We're not selling until Bitcoin reaches $30-$40, I don't care if it's just a small amount".

Truth be told, in Israel it's fairly simple to buy Bitcoin, you just do a normal bank transfer to bitcoil.co.il and get BTC. Sadly, my friend never actually made the time to do this simple transfer (15 minutes of his time, I guess).

If I had accepted, he would have handed me a bill or two in exchange for my coins.

So --> friction was the answer in this case.


Title: Re: Do you have ZERO Bitcoins? Why?
Post by: ripper234 on February 27, 2012, 04:44:59 PM
Try harder.

I personally got 4 friends and 2 family members to buy some.
One friend lost his wallet when he formatted his hard drive (of course I taught everyone how to back up ... didn't listen).

But I believe the others still have their BTC safely secured.

Ah, and there was another friend who wanted to buy BTC from me. I wanted to sell him some, but my wife strictly vetoed it.
"We're not selling until Bitcoin reaches $30-$40, I don't care if it's just a small amount".


That was my initial reflex as well.

That, my friend - and feel free to tell your wife - is shortsightedness
pure and simple.

The way you do it is: you immediately sell the person the coins with
a comfy margin atop the gox rate, go back home and buy back the
exact BTC amount you sold.

Net effect:
    . You made a profit, leveraging your expert skills (i.e. you know how to procure BTC)
    . You injected value in the bitcoin ecosystem, thereby increasing the fiat value of your own BTC
    . The size of your stash is unchanged
    . You potentially sired a convert

As a matter of fact, this is exactly the way I operate with every single thing I purchase
with bitcoins: buy BTC on GOX, spend BTC on stuff, stash didn't move.

The whole shebang takes slightly longer, but goes a long way in advocating bitcoins.


Ordinarily I'd agree, but the truth is since buying Bitcoin really is trivial in Israel (Thanks to Meni), then I expect someone to take these 15 minutes and send in the money to bitcoil. Really, it's that easy, and teaches them how to acquire larger amounts of BTC in the future if they so choose.


Title: Re: Do you have ZERO Bitcoins? Why?
Post by: foggyb on February 27, 2012, 05:27:49 PM
Willful ignorance


Such a nice turn of phrase !

Permission to re-use ?



That's from 2 Peter 3:5.


Title: Re: Do you have ZERO Bitcoins? Why?
Post by: btc_artist on February 27, 2012, 06:15:04 PM
http://www.quora.com/What-are-some-reasons-a-lot-of-rational-people-dont-buy-just-1-Bitcoin
Just buy a physical bitcoin from memory dealers.  Done.


Title: Re: Do you have ZERO Bitcoins? Why?
Post by: dooglus on February 27, 2012, 10:47:26 PM
Willful ignorance
Such a nice turn of phrase !

Permission to re-use ?

That's from 2 Peter 3:5.

That's a weird looking IP address.


Title: Re: Do you have ZERO Bitcoins? Why?
Post by: wareen on February 28, 2012, 10:47:27 AM
Ah, and there was another friend who wanted to buy BTC from me. I wanted to sell him some, but my wife strictly vetoed it.
"We're not selling until Bitcoin reaches $30-$40, I don't care if it's just a small amount".
:D
Seems your wife is even more a believer then - I have been granted permission to sell some at 15$ ;)

back on topic:
Quote from: ripper234
If (and that's a big if) Bitcoin one day becomes huge (say 1% of the world's economy), 1 Bitcoin will be worth somewhere in the neighborhood of $100,000 to $10,000,000.

I'm not really able to quantify the chance that the above scenario will happen, but I argue it's more than zero, and even more than 0.0001.

So, by my (biased) opinion, "every rational person" should spring $5 today and buy 1BTC, because the downside if he lost his entire investment is minimal.

While I can relate to your line of thought, I think one reason is that Bitcoin is relatively hard to understand for somebody unfamiliar with crypto, P2P, monetary systems, etc. Even if you explain the concept to them, they pretty much only have your word for it. You might just as well advocate some random startup or penny stock.

To do a rational risk assessment of an investment in Bitcoin requires quite a lot of research and that's an effort many people (however rational) are not willing to make.

According to Rick Falkvinge, it takes about 10 years for a new technology to really reach the masses. He stated that it was about the same time it needed for blogging, Internet video and Wikipedia. I remember vividly when people were laughing about the concept of Wikipedia... Times are changing - often not as fast as one could wish, but Bitcoin is definitely here to stay. I for one am looking forward to 2019 ;)


Title: Re: Do you have ZERO Bitcoins? Why?
Post by: ripper234 on February 28, 2012, 11:15:39 AM
I for one am looking forward to 2019 ;)

The waiting is difficult :)


Title: Re: Do you have ZERO Bitcoins? Why?
Post by: Elwar on February 29, 2012, 07:11:20 AM
Compare 1BTC to 1 oz Silver.


Total silver in the world is 45,000,000,000 (45 billion).

Max amount of BTC will be 20,000,000 (20 million).

Currently silver is about 37 USD per oz.

That equals $1,665,000,000,000 (1.6 trillion)

If 1BTC were to become as popular as 1oz of silver at the max amount of BTC supply, it would be worth $83,250 per BTC.


Title: Re: Do you have ZERO Bitcoins? Why?
Post by: coraz on February 29, 2012, 09:20:45 AM
http://www.quora.com/What-are-some-reasons-a-lot-of-rational-people-dont-buy-just-1-Bitcoin

I think the answer to the article is simple: inertia.

It took the internet - one of the most useful thing ever invented in the whole
history of mankind - 20 years to go from being functional to being used by a
sizable fraction of humanity.


True, see this 1995 article about internet for example:
http://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/1995/02/26/the-internet-bah.html

It looks ridiculous now but back then people were seriously thinking that internet would fail for technical reasons.


Title: Re: Do you have ZERO Bitcoins? Why?
Post by: Matthew N. Wright on February 29, 2012, 10:41:38 AM
I offer to give Bitcoins away to friends and family.  No takers.

I am pretty confident we are solving this problem inside the DCAO. I expect to see Bitcoin go mainstream in 2012 thanks in part to some major investors of an invention of mine.

Also, when Bitcoin Magazine gets out in the air, it's going to start picking up some major glances and interests.



Title: Re: Do you have ZERO Bitcoins? Why?
Post by: ripper234 on February 29, 2012, 11:03:03 AM
I offer to give Bitcoins away to friends and family.  No takers.

We're solving this problem in the DCAO.

The Defence Counsel Association of Ottawa (http://dcao.com/)?


Title: Re: Do you have ZERO Bitcoins? Why?
Post by: Matthew N. Wright on February 29, 2012, 11:05:13 AM
I offer to give Bitcoins away to friends and family.  No takers.

We're solving this problem in the DCAO.

The Defence Counsel Association of Ottawa (http://dcao.com/)?

http://dcao.org


Title: Re: Do you have ZERO Bitcoins? Why?
Post by: ripper234 on February 29, 2012, 11:06:13 AM
I offer to give Bitcoins away to friends and family.  No takers.

We're solving this problem in the DCAO.

The Defence Counsel Association of Ottawa (http://dcao.com/)?

http://dcao.org

Yeah, I just found that. You should put that in your sig.

BTW, it's down right now. http://www.isup.me/dcao.org


Title: Re: Do you have ZERO Bitcoins? Why?
Post by: Matthew N. Wright on February 29, 2012, 11:22:24 AM
I offer to give Bitcoins away to friends and family.  No takers.

We're solving this problem in the DCAO.

The Defence Counsel Association of Ottawa (http://dcao.com/)?

http://dcao.org

Yeah, I just found that. You should put that in your sig.

BTW, it's down right now. http://www.isup.me/dcao.org

Fixed. Hasn't been migrated to new servers yet. Still using a dumpy VPS.


Title: Re: Do you have ZERO Bitcoins? Why?
Post by: N12 on February 29, 2012, 11:31:52 AM
I expect to see Bitcoin go mainstream in 2012 thanks in part to some major investors of an invention of mine.

Also, when Bitcoin Magazine gets out in the air, it's going to start picking up some major glances and interests.
Sounds like the bullshit Bruce Wagner fed us.


Title: Re: Do you have ZERO Bitcoins? Why?
Post by: Matthew N. Wright on February 29, 2012, 12:09:53 PM
I expect to see Bitcoin go mainstream in 2012 thanks in part to some major investors of an invention of mine.

Also, when Bitcoin Magazine gets out in the air, it's going to start picking up some major glances and interests.
Sounds like the bullshit Bruce Wagner fed us.

That's why I don't usually talk about it (or anything we do for that matter).

I'll be ready to show more when it's ready though.

Bruce is a hyper. All he does is use other people's skills and talents and pretend to be a leader. I actually have ideas and do most of the work to get them done. Our similarities stop at being publicly vocal individuals.


Title: Re: Do you have ZERO Bitcoins? Why?
Post by: N12 on February 29, 2012, 12:16:16 PM
Well, you just did, and until I see anything more than hot air from you, my suspicion that you are just a hyper remains.

To think that you could make Bitcoin go mainstream within 2012 is a joke. Or perhaps you have a different definition of mainstream than me. Because if you don’t, you should be buying up all Bitcoins at the current rates, even if you have to take a loan, as well as anyone else who knows about your plans, because it would mean prices way beyond $1000 in 9 months max.

Currently, I do not see that crazy buying happening, so some or all of what you have said must be bullshit.

Sorry for the harsh language, but I hate this type of "announcement". We don’t need anymore penny stock behaviour.


Title: Re: Do you have ZERO Bitcoins? Why?
Post by: Matthew N. Wright on February 29, 2012, 12:29:36 PM
Well, you just did, and until I see anything more than hot air from you, my suspicion that you are just a hyper remains.

To think that you could make Bitcoin go mainstream within 2012 is a joke. Or perhaps you have a different definition of mainstream than me. Because if you don’t, you should be buying up all Bitcoins at the current rates, even if you have to take a loan, as well as anyone else who knows about your plans, because it would mean prices way beyond $1000 in 9 months max.

Currently, I do not see that crazy buying happening, so some or all of what you have said must be bullshit.

Sorry for the harsh language, but I hate this type of "announcement". We don’t need anymore penny stock behaviour.

Yes, you're right. Judging by your statement, mainstream to you is related to the spot value.

Mainstream to me is about adoption and usage.


Title: Re: Do you have ZERO Bitcoins? Why?
Post by: N12 on February 29, 2012, 12:41:01 PM
Adoption and usage is most definitely related to the value, though, at least in the long term. Remember how Silk Road picked up in May? And of course it influences the value also because speculators gain more confidence as they see adoption increase. If they see the opposite, like from June to December, price will decrease.

Or do you think a market cap of barely 40 million will satisfy a "mainstream" currency? ;D


Title: Re: Do you have ZERO Bitcoins? Why?
Post by: Matthew N. Wright on February 29, 2012, 12:45:29 PM
Adoption and usage is most definitely related to the value, though, at least in the long term. Remember how Silk Road picked up in May? And of course it influences the value also because speculators gain more confidence as they see adoption increase. If they see the opposite, like from June to December, price will decrease.

Or do you think a market cap of barely 40 million will satisfy a "mainstream" currency? ;D

I could be naive in this, but to me, mainstream is when you see people using bitcoin on the streets.

It doesn't matter if they use it once a month, for $1 a day only, all that matters is that they're using it.

I have heard the ex-forex trading initiative here speak so verbosely about how the value of Bitcoin is directly related to the USD put into it, but that's just simply not true. If there are 1000 people willing to trade 1 BTC, then that 1000 people are the ones who set the value. Exchanges are the friend of Bitcoin's adoption and the enemy of its stability.


EDIT: since there are many things about trading that are not my cup of tea, I don't want to pollute this thread with my lack of education on the matters. If we discuss this any deeper, let's start a new thread.