Bitcoin Forum

Economy => Speculation => Topic started by: Simran on July 03, 2014, 03:02:24 AM



Title: Bitcoin in "Return to Mean" stage of bubble?
Post by: Simran on July 03, 2014, 03:02:24 AM
http://fixwillpower.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/bubble.jpg
http://i.gyazo.com/bc20c695f4e12f9f8fbbb0c4424bfc50.png

Seems like we're at that stage and ready to go into a bubble to repeat the process. Who's ready? :D


Title: Re: Bitcoin in "Return to Mean" stage of bubble?
Post by: Rooothlespredators on July 03, 2014, 03:03:17 AM
can't wait


Title: Re: Bitcoin in "Return to Mean" stage of bubble?
Post by: TrollinU on July 03, 2014, 03:10:31 AM
I think it's awesome how this chart is ok when it's followed by "ready to blast off?" but you all cry when someone compares the bubble burst to it
Way to "woman" it up with your double standards, guys!


Title: Re: Bitcoin in "Return to Mean" stage of bubble?
Post by: dropt on July 03, 2014, 03:23:17 AM
I think it's awesome how this chart is ok when it's followed by "ready to blast off?" but you all cry when someone compares the bubble burst to it
Way to "woman" it up with your double standards, guys!

Oh, another self-professed troll account?  Thanks for the heads up, I like to put you knobs on ignore asap.


Title: Re: Bitcoin in "Return to Mean" stage of bubble?
Post by: byronbb on July 03, 2014, 03:30:56 AM
That god damn chart.


Title: Re: Bitcoin in "Return to Mean" stage of bubble?
Post by: zimmah on July 03, 2014, 08:19:23 AM
http://fixwillpower.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/bubble.jpg
http://i.gyazo.com/bc20c695f4e12f9f8fbbb0c4424bfc50.png

Seems like we're at that stage and ready to go into a bubble to repeat the process. Who's ready? :D

I thought we were already at bear trap, but maybe you are right. We could be there as well. Not very clear to see at the moment where we are exactly, but either way we can assume it's

1) not going down from here any serious amounts
2) it's not going to take long for any other cycle to happen.


Title: Re: Bitcoin in "Return to Mean" stage of bubble?
Post by: oda.krell on July 03, 2014, 08:26:46 AM
That god damn chart.

This chart... one day it'll break me.

That, and the 'Guys! Why are we going {up, down} by $2? Some news I missed? Guys?!' threads.


Title: Re: Bitcoin in "Return to Mean" stage of bubble?
Post by: piramida on July 03, 2014, 11:14:44 AM
That god damn chart.

This chart... one day it'll break me.

That, and the 'Guys! Why are we going {up, down} by $2? Some news I missed? Guys?!' threads.

Topics with the word "stage" anywhere in first post should be moved to a new speculation sub-section, named, I don't know, "Conclusions taken directly from someone's ass".

Seriously now, I am seeing that for 4 years, and topics that start with "I had a dream last night" have much more insight than this stupid shit.


Title: Re: Bitcoin in "Return to Mean" stage of bubble?
Post by: fonzie on July 03, 2014, 11:16:25 AM
Simran, do you still hold you LTC stash? IS LTC also in the "return to mean" stage?


Title: Re: Bitcoin in "Return to Mean" stage of bubble?
Post by: lihuajkl on July 03, 2014, 11:43:22 AM
The past chart doesn't mean anything for the future.  No one knows what exactly the price wil be in the future.


Title: Re: Bitcoin in "Return to Mean" stage of bubble?
Post by: Tzupy on July 03, 2014, 11:47:49 AM
Simran, do you still hold you LTC stash? IS LTC also in the "return to mean" stage?

Litecoin is experiencing capitulation. Much despair to come before it goes up (sustained) again.


Title: Re: Bitcoin in "Return to Mean" stage of bubble?
Post by: fonzie on July 03, 2014, 11:49:19 AM
Simran, do you still hold you LTC stash? IS LTC also in the "return to mean" stage?

Litecoin is experiencing capitulation. Much despair to come before it goes up (sustained) again.

I think itīs time to reactivate my BTC-e account "LTCvictim" .
I love to chat during the despair phase!  :D


Title: Re: Bitcoin in "Return to Mean" stage of bubble?
Post by: JimboToronto on July 03, 2014, 11:53:54 AM
That god damn chart.


Posting it should be grounds for banning.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rr_DTozbH8E


Title: Re: Bitcoin in "Return to Mean" stage of bubble?
Post by: maker88 on July 03, 2014, 12:03:49 PM
I think it's awesome how this chart is ok when it's followed by "ready to blast off?" but you all cry when someone compares the bubble burst to it
Way to "woman" it up with your double standards, guys!

we didn't cry when it actually represented the bubble burst. people only question it when retards like failling come out and put it up saying we just got to the end of the bubble like last month and now its going to 200. that is an absolutely absurd interpretation, and deserves ridicule. return to mean/ first bear trap makes sense. and lines up.


Title: Re: Bitcoin in "Return to Mean" stage of bubble?
Post by: zimmah on July 03, 2014, 12:37:49 PM
The past chart doesn't mean anything for the future.  No one knows what exactly the price wil be in the future.

The old "past results do bit guarantee future result" chant again, and as always misinterpreted.

The whole point of speculating is making an educated guess based on past results. You can't GUARANTEE it will move one way or another, but you can very damn well GUESS it and make a ton of money. You'll guess wrong sometimes, but when your analysis is good you'll make more money than you lose on average.

It's similar to gambling, but it's not nearly as risky as pure gambling when you do it correctly.

Otherwise we might move this entire subtopic to gambling.


Title: Re: Bitcoin in "Return to Mean" stage of bubble?
Post by: piramida on July 03, 2014, 01:10:07 PM

It's similar to gambling, but it's not nearly as risky as pure gambling when you do it correctly.


Agree. Doing it correctly meaning when everybody bids on red, you do it too, and that collective action may actually affect the end result. That's all there is to "insightful speculation". If most people would be looking at that chart for wisdom, we might  be actually following it, however nobody ever did, so bitcoin price never did, too.

Everybody who posts this charts seems to have failed math, since they miss the simple fact that 350 > 265 > 100.


Title: Re: Bitcoin in "Return to Mean" stage of bubble?
Post by: RodeoX on July 03, 2014, 01:12:28 PM
That god damn chart.

LOL  :D

Not again.


Title: Re: Bitcoin in "Return to Mean" stage of bubble?
Post by: thezerg on July 03, 2014, 01:54:14 PM
you guys are just crying b/c if you'd followed that d*mn chart for that last 3 bubbles you could have more than tripled your BTC holdings, no fancy TA required.  Only risk (and it is a big one) is avoiding failures like Bitcoinica, coinfloor, Gox.  For example, RP "blindly" followed the trendline last time, sold when we were above, bought when we were below and ended up with a dilapidated manor for free.



Title: Re: Bitcoin in "Return to Mean" stage of bubble?
Post by: oda.krell on July 03, 2014, 03:01:32 PM
Nah, kinda doubt that.

I think for once, traders and holders are united in their hatred of the idiocy that is posting this chart over and over again.


Title: Re: Bitcoin in "Return to Mean" stage of bubble?
Post by: JimboToronto on July 03, 2014, 03:05:19 PM
Nah, kinda doubt that.

I think for once, traders and holders are united in their hatred of the idiocy that is posting this chart over and over again.
+1


Title: Re: Bitcoin in "Return to Mean" stage of bubble?
Post by: Malin Keshar on July 03, 2014, 03:13:36 PM
Just put an exponential mean, and the actual level slighly bellow that mean, and there is where we are. I see 700 the return to mean value.



And I agree that this graph is starting to get annoying. >:(


Title: Re: Bitcoin in "Return to Mean" stage of bubble?
Post by: segeln on July 03, 2014, 04:29:44 PM
the valuation Chart ist ok.
But to compare it to the current bitcoin-Price-Chart ist utmost stupid.
In the valuation Chart we are just in the "first sell off bear trap" -stage".
Stupid OP


Title: Re: Bitcoin in "Return to Mean" stage of bubble?
Post by: BitchicksHusband on July 03, 2014, 08:28:21 PM
Just put an exponential mean, and the actual level slighly bellow that mean, and there is where we are. I see 700 the return to mean value.



And I agree that this graph is starting to get annoying. >:(

There are always newbies who have never seen it...  Doesn't bother me that much, especially since the bubbles DO follow a curve similar to it (but not exactly).


Title: Re: Bitcoin in "Return to Mean" stage of bubble?
Post by: piramida on July 03, 2014, 08:57:39 PM
Just put an exponential mean, and the actual level slighly bellow that mean, and there is where we are. I see 700 the return to mean value.



And I agree that this graph is starting to get annoying. >:(

There are always newbies who have never seen it...  Doesn't bother me that much, especially since the bubbles DO follow a curve similar to it (but not exactly).

You mean they go up then go down? First there is an "up phase" then there is a "down phase", I now created an universal curve for any traded market in history, fits any time scale and any historical data! Feel free to derive your trading strategy from it! I use it to buy before "Bubble" phase and sell before "Crash" phase, works every time! :)

https://i.imgur.com/7xf6zoG.png (http://imgur.com/7xf6zoG)


Title: Re: Bitcoin in "Return to Mean" stage of bubble?
Post by: InwardContour on July 04, 2014, 12:26:47 AM
Nah, kinda doubt that.

I think for once, traders and holders are united in their hatred of the idiocy that is posting this chart over and over again.
The labels on the chart are not even accurate. The MSM was reporting on bitcon for much of 2013


Title: Re: Bitcoin in "Return to Mean" stage of bubble?
Post by: Hiro_Y3k on October 14, 2014, 03:05:50 AM
Just got here. Did we return to the mean? Hey, where did everyone go?