Bitcoin Forum

Full disclosure: This is my personal opinion.  I'm not trading on it; nor am I trading at all.  I hold a considerable amount of BTC.

Here we are at a deciding moment.  A breakout up is very possible in the short term.

The critical price range to watch is $5.2-5.3.
1. Top of the earlier spike.
2. Depth is less steep after $5.2.
3. Mid-term downwards trendline is currently at $5.2-5.3.
4. .2's are crucial supports/resistances in the bitcoin market for some reason.
5. Long-term EMA (200) is at $5.3.
6. $5.2 would represent a decisive break from SMA(30) (the famous Nagle Line)... anything less might be a false alarm.
7. We simply haven't been above $5.2 for around 3 weeks.  It's definitely a major psychological resistance level.
More generally, a move up at all at this point or in the next few days would be bullish, because it would confirm the upwards trendline since $3.87.  

Now, it's time to wait. :)

I don't have any positions on botcoinica at the moment.  I just can't decide what I want to do.

Something that's making this different to the last $2 drop is that there seems to be a persistent underlying bullish move. If this is a shoulder, it's sure not dropping as quickly as the last one (which had collapsed by now). MACD showed some resistance to downward pressure, but this one had a strong buyer hold it up a little bit longer and the optimists came out to play volleyball with it above the hourly SMA(50). This must be the MA players at work.

I guess it's a waiting game to see if there's enough bullishness to overcome the jitteryness. MACD looks to be on the way to neutralize itself, but if it lands gently it'll greatly add to the bullish forecast imo. MACD needs to stay bullish for this to happen too, of course.

Was bear last night...did some analysis...bullish now...did some rethinking...and now I'm just hopelessly bored. You might be right on the correction end. At the very least, I think we'll give 5.2 a good rodgering.

I think price discovery is complete: bitcoins are worth about $5 each.  There's a good chance they'll trade in the $4 to $6 range for many months to come.  The possibility of a crackdown by US feds will keep new big players out of the market, and encourage old big players to exit the market.

Interesting thought. If you zoom out on the chart it does look a little like a huge triangle that just found its harmonic end.

I doubt anyone will be satisfied with that for long, though, and a mayhem calling they shall come.

Do you really think that BTCUSD is stabilizing?  Every time someone says price discovery is complete, I laugh... they said it several times last year.
"BTC are worth $14."
"BTC are worth $5."
"BTC are worth $3."

So your argument is that bitcoin is dead if the price stabilizes? Because speculators can't make as much money?

Speculators play a role, but to say it's dead just because speculators can't make easy money isn't a compelling argument.

there is a 0% chance that this is going to happen

Historically speaking, everytime people started talking about "stabilization", Bitcoin tended to crash hard soon afterwards. :-X

something feels like its about to explode.  :o

The bitoinica spread has tightened up quite a bit, which is nice.

I do not find this very compelling either. I do not really speculate and could not care less about big players. If they want to liquidate to smaller players, it will strengthen the market, IMO.

Haha, you guys ready for the price to go down?

That's the real issue right there, we don't know. I just don't think speculators are gonna go away, people only in for a quick buck might. Weak hands might get pushed out, but that's the way it goes.  

It does look like its itching for a breakout though.

What about it @myself?

I don’t understand what you want to tell me. ;D

So you decided which way to go then?

I actually think this has already broken the trend lines that people are talking about. Maybe I just don't know how to draw them properly or something...it seems to me that this is already in new territory.

Combined with the 4k wall that wants to push up the price, I’m inclined to believe we will either see a large ask wall or a huge dump like the 5.3 one soon.

Basically, a manipulator can only achieve so much as the general trend allows.

you're learning  :D

I saw a large 20k or so ask wall pop up for a minute or two about 30 minutes ago.  It went up around $5.20.  Whoever owns that wall is probably going to stop any attempt at a rally.  This is a false start, IMO. 

I just finished reading Reminiscences of a Stock Operator. :) The last few chapters were about stock "manipulation", and it was enlightening in many respects.

It is really incredible how little has changed since then, the only new thing is probably bots.

Meh, I went long.  Not revealing as much this time.  Not a huge position, but I thought, "what the hell" and decided to pick a side.  I'll probably get out of this as soon as it's the least bit profitable.  I think before we go down again we're going to see a spike up.  Fingers crossed!

http://i44.tinypic.com/211wk8x.png

Lol, oops.

Those coins are back.

The Manipulator is reading these forums, beware.

He really went short.

Nope.  I really went long.

http://i42.tinypic.com/2ebb9rr.png

You should have known better. :(

5 is a terrible psychological resistance. I bought here before and had to regret it. ;D

Me too...I feel better now. gave me the opportunity to buy more under $5 for the last time ever ^^

We did it wrong.  I will probably get out of this position soon.

Ye of little faith.

Although I should have known better than to put anything on anything tonight.

Keep up the dream, bro.

Lol... I knew it. Every fucking time there's a post like this, it goes decidedly in the other direction.  :D

yeah nightmare

Haven't I taught you guys anything   :'(

"This might be the end of the correction".

Although I like to agree with this statement, as I have come to the same conclusion following the trend over the past months, and I have a lot of confidence in Bitcoin's stability at the current point, your statement sounds amazingly like taken from the "Famous last words" section...

Bitcoin needs to beef up the underlying economy, i.e. the volume for trades of goods and services using Bitcoin as means of exchange to become a stable currency. Hoarding coins and speculating on them leads to dynamics of a commodity market (and I am comparing Bitcoin itself to the commodity being traded); hence we see "corrections" that would be called a crash when applying metrics and known fluctuations of a currency.
As the value of a currency is also driven by supply and demand, where the supply is the money supply itself, demand is both created by speculators on exchanges and also the volume of the economy supported by the currency (goods and services to be paid using it as means of exchange).

We are moving in the right direction, but we are not there yet, so I would be more cautious calling the "end of the correction".

Again, if you like to see a stable currency, you need to encourage a market for it, which means using it as a means of exchange for goods and services and keep the bitcoins in circulation. Only if bitcoins eventually close the loop and return at the same rate to the person spending them, there will be a stable currency. On the other hand people that just seek speculation and those hoarding them (ref. "my precious") disrupt that circle, making it harder to pay with bitcoins for the ones actually spending them (because they don't return at the same rate).

Note: I am aware I am posting this on the speculation board (but the title of the thread was just too tempting), so as a sheep among wolves I don't expect much applause.

Someone earlier made the suggestion that bitcoin may be dead if the price stabilizes as speculators won't make any money. First, I'd reduce this to short-term speculation, second, as I said that demand for a currency is given not just by speculators but the supporting underlying economy, a price stabilization and reduction in short-term speculation might signal a shift from "commodity status" to currency (means of exchange, as lower fluctuations make it more trustworthy in business transactions), which could be a good thing for those of us supporting it as a new alternative currency.

W.

alright, looks like we're going the other way.  keyword was "might" :P

http://i40.tinypic.com/35k7byh.png

 :-[

BEGONE KEYNESIAN!

I WANT TO BE RICH QUICK! ;D ;D ;D

Proudhon, sorry for your (unrealized) loss, but as I said you out of all people should have known better.

OK, I was a little off. Not a huge wall, but multiple big walls.

Ive been listening :)  Im on the right side of this one... and have been for 2-3 days

I'm on the correct side ;).  Your service has been tremendously educational.

http://i43.tinypic.com/a5c9j7.png

I'm going down with the ship, gentlemen.

Gotta love getting paid to hold short :).

I fully agree and pray he will be able keep up this kind of quality and quantity. :)

Is everyone having fun?  ;D

Looking at the buying volumes on the way up … probably very few people are having fun right now.

I'm having fun.

I'm editing the interview i did yesterday with Matthew N. Wright and Brian

Fun Fun Fun

You guys are in for a treat ;)

One needs a heck of a swing in price to make some money using bitcoinica.
5-10% swings is ideal. Not to mention perfect timing. Otherwise this all seems pointless.
One would be better off not using leverage and getting a much tighter spread with
a lower cost of entry/exit.

Yeah it's a bit of a head scratcher, really. I don't know why I still use the service....when I'm right, I barely make a profit, when I'm wrong, I pay dearly.

Being able to profit in dollars from a downswing in addition to being able to pick up more bitcoins really adds balance to your perspective.

I finished 'Reminiscences" a few weeks ago, great book.  It illustrated to me that there's usually a very good reason behind every regulation, and that regulations are often about making the market as fair as possible for all players.

It's a trap.

What is? ???

There's only one thing that really matters.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=360&i=Weekly&c=0&s=&e=&Prev=&Next=&t=S&b=&a1=&m1=30&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=1&cv=0&ps=0&l=1&p=0&

That's what I get for doubting myself.

Why not reveal how much you bought? ??? The sensitive info is the liquidation price.

I ate my losses ... couldn't take it any more. The "risky" parts of my check list for pre-betting all basically came true and turned it into a 80% short from a 60% long.

Could still change, of course, it's clear there are powerful forces at work, and since I can't read minds I'm just going to stick to the charts. It's kind of a funny duopoly where people want the charts and the charts want the people...and each does each other's bidding.

I don't know - but this correction is taking too long.  This is just another speculation - but I have the feeling that because someone pushed up when it 'should' go down, it did not bounce back at the right moment and now we might be back to the 'long slow slide'.

I made and paid dearly for the mistake once (or thrice) of thinking the walls meant anything at all.

If you are sure about it - then buy into them - they'll disappear, the price goes up and you earn profit.

I am not looking at the walls - it is just that the correction takes too much time.

I think the bears have got daggers in their cloaks and are waiting for the lights to go out, and I think the bulls are wondering how many other bulls are out there at this point ready to stampede. It will come to a head one way or another over the next few days.

That was my point - wasn't it?  It will probably get a lot lower.

The bulls are nibbling away.

I'm going to make a stupid prediction just for the hell and fun of it:

What we're about to see in the next six hours, is an exact replica of what we're about to see in the next six days.

I honestly have nfi what's going to happen, but I reckon it'll be a fractal.

http://i41.tinypic.com/ivehs0.png

http://i41.tinypic.com/240zkwh.png

The end is near.  Push bulls!

How can the bulls push? They don’t have any USD. ;D

Oh, well, they could leverage up and get epically zhoutonged like from 7 to 4.64.

I get paid every two weeks... I always have some green paper laying around

Are you pushing? :)

PUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUSH

Its not going any lower buy now or never.

The bulls need some serious volume to overcome any remaining bears. I don't really see it atm...but that could change I suppose.

3.8... 3.5 at the worst.

There is also a case for $3.00, albeit a weak one. Knowing my luck I'll pick this huge drop, reverse position then catch a big fat falling dagger.

 ;D

I want to go to sleep but its sooo close to picking a side...and I think the US is just waking up now.

A reasonably sized buy right now would end the entire correction.  Come on, manipulator!

The worry is that it'd be followed by big sell to spark panic, which it would if it was seen that somebody tried to start a rally and was smacked down; and we know there are individuals with many 10s of thousands of bitcoins ready to sell.

Nooooooo, the early adopters would never cheat us. :'(

Have you noticed the bot that sells 3 BTC every minute when the price is above 4.9? I suspect it arbitrages cheap stolen Bitcoins from https://btc-e.com/

So that’s probably one reason for the resistance seen.

Here's what would happen if somebody tried to start a rally right now.

http://i44.tinypic.com/2yytnap.gif

So you liquidated your long?

What?  No way.

http://i40.tinypic.com/30dbb0j.png

Waiting for the ball?

Haha, something like that.

The rally will be glorious.

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/__fNwlx_au8w/S7O4Sx6_JuI/AAAAAAAAAqg/szyeKYUBmG8/s1600/Conductor---COLOR-TRANS-122.gif

The correction is going to end tonight, and it'll be to the upside in a BIG way.

;D :D ;)

this weekend will be the last chance to get coins below 4.9

I plan to load the boat at 4.75, If we get that low.

Alright bro

wow depth is jumpy

Yeah, market makers? Who needs that crap. ;D

Volumes don't lie.

I suppose people might be waiting for the big 20k walls to appear and start messing with people...I know I'm anticipating them.

That was like a 2k wall and depth melted before it.

The big boom is coming.  Watch out.

lol you know you're probably right.

Calm before the shitstorm?

VISUALIZE: "loading the boat with bitcoins"........must be a virtual boat too! haha ;D

A move to $5.5, which could happen naturally, would trigger a short squeeze to $6...

While the same exists in reverse, what concerns me more is the risk. The bitcoin price is ready to go up, sure, but the bulls can't play until the bears are satisfied. Indicators are extremely close to trigger a sell signal...good time for someone to rally, but it'll cost them around $120k to push that trigger. The trigger down is about half that, and since sentiment is bullish (I think), it's a very juicy path downwards.

There's a proper long term upwards support down at $3.5...the one we're at now is just make believe imo. I think the real price of this huge triangle we're in is around $4.50-$4.60.

EDIT: I must admit though, there is some weird stuff going on. Volume was extremely low yesterday...every time it's been that low in the past 3 months it's been followed with a dump of epic proportions...except this time...eerie.

I know many people believe that google trends are a following indicator - but fundamentally you need more people to get interested and start betting their money to move the price in a big way.  Currently the popularity indicators are down.  Google trends had a up - tick after the recent hack - but that was a negative news so we should not count much on that.  New forum members in March are also down so far.  That's why I don't believe in any big rally - it might shoot up from the triangle but that will not be a long rally - and vice versa a down move might extend massively.

Just my 3 cents :)

k so, say your triangle breaks down to 4.50 then what?  panic to 4$?

No this is it...

4$ is the bottom, 4.87 is the current price, if no major buy or sell happens we'll be at 4.75 in 2 days, 4.50 in 1 week, 4.25 in 1 month

but the thing is, something will happen... and soon! ( Right ???   ...    Wrong ;D )

major sell off, since we are so close to the bottom, a major sell of would bounce back relatively fast (don't try to cause panic selling... it simply wont work)
Or
major buy up, since we are so close to the bottom, a major buy up will retain some momentum and reach higher. ( very expensive to pull the trigger...)

IMO

no one will pull the trigger, and no one will want to try and cause panic in order to buy back lower.

so only one thing can happen

a very slow down to 4.25, fallowed by a even slower climb up and over 5.1 at which point news about some new service offered in bitcoin will trigger a wave of new money willing to buy coins no matter what the cost, hell slips open, the never ending bull run continues

I lay it out for you all to to play it out  8)

http://s2.favim.com/orig/36/cat-gif-kawaii-nyan-cat-rainbow-Favim.com-295977.gif

I could buy that, but I don't discount the other possibilities as easily as you seem to.

  ::) ya even I don't place much trust in my thoughts...

I think my tune would also be so amazingly different if we had at least tapped or broken $5.20 this last week...that was a bit disappointing for me because I went long early in anticipation.

*yawn*

https://i.imgur.com/Vj6Gj.png

So like...what was that?

Someone poking away...someone else serving them a meal of "shut the hell up"?

I might have been wrong.

Wrong about what? The secret ball boom rocket?

Yes.  BTW, I used bitinstant for the first time the other day to transfer some more money to MtGox and I was impressed by how well it worked.  It really was almost instant after I made the deposit at Bank of America.  Sweet.

But isn’t Bitinstant horribly expensive? I only see a use in it when you need it right now or know that the price will explode or crash soon and want to catch it for that reason.

Also, I don’t think you have been proven wrong just yet.

It certainly would have been a lot cheaper percentage wise to do a wire transfer, but (1) I wanted to try it out, and (2) I wanted the money in there fast. 

;D

We seem to have broken a critical SMA...

SMA(210) has proven to be powerful resistance/support in the past.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=360&i=&c=0&s=&e=&Prev=&Next=&t=S&b=&a1=SMA&m1=210&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=RSI&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=1&cv=0&ps=0&l=1&p=0&

Things could get interesting.

Did you just keep putting in random numbers for the SMA until you saw something interesting?
Who looks at the SMA with that value? I mean I could see using a 200 day value but 210?
Making a graph show what you want to see is hardly interesting. The 200 day SMA will clearly
show bumps above the line quite a few times.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=120&i=&c=0&s=&e=&Prev=&Next=&t=S&b=&a1=SMA&m1=200&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=1&cv=0&ps=0&l=0&p=0&

hmmm

I don't look at the SMA210 when I'm making a trading decision, and I am sure many other do not either.  When the link between chartists and real people is confirmed, then I might take notice.  Until then, stochastic human behaviour beats empirical analysis. 

I sure did.  It's probably rather unscientific ;)
However, every market has its own unique SMAs... the 200 clearly doesn't work with the Bitcoin market.

Just in from BitcoinAnalyst - http://chart.ly/symbols/BCOIN (http://chart.ly/symbols/BCOIN) :
"Bitcoin breakout. Next targets 7.22 $ (2012 high) and ultimately test/break of ATH (32$)"

http://chart.ly/uploads/stream_h5a8o96.png?1331708453

Read up on "overfitting" and you'll understand why this is a bad idea.