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Bitcoin => Bitcoin Discussion => Topic started by: Atheros on March 12, 2012, 01:09:46 AM



Title: We should have a humongous party in December to celebrate block #210,000
Post by: Atheros on March 12, 2012, 01:09:46 AM
A once-every-four-years party? That's bigger than new-years! Already people have counters up like at p2pmining.com (http://p2pmining.com) counting down the days. Imagine the tension that would be in the room as we stare at a counter on the big screen knowing that at any second the block of the next era will be found. I think it would be exciting.

Six or eight blocks prior, two people can be assigned to stare at the counter (or a special program can be written) who yell "Block!" And everyone else yells back, "Hooray!"  ;D

Hopefully it will fall on a weekend. Culturally, if Bitcoin becomes very mainstream, everyone would take a de facto holiday.


Title: Re: We need to have a humongous party in December to celebrate block #210,000
Post by: Kluge on March 12, 2012, 01:11:37 AM
Celebrate commerce with a day off?

No thanks. Let's go about our business as usual.


Title: Re: We need to have a humongous party in December to celebrate block #210,000
Post by: Atheros on March 12, 2012, 01:19:53 AM
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-QhS_3pyR2H8/TaLFHJZUOSI/AAAAAAAAADo/5JDpkDbbBBQ/s320/okay-face.jpg


Title: Re: We should have a humongous party in December to celebrate block #210,000
Post by: Atheros on March 12, 2012, 01:23:34 AM
Thank You :-)

I just think that this technology is something to be celebrated and not just profited from. Shouldn't the light bulb and antibiotics be celebrated and their developers recognized? I certainly think so. The world would be much better off.


Title: Re: We should have a humongous party in December to celebrate block #210,000
Post by: Kluge on March 12, 2012, 01:25:39 AM
Thank You :-)

I just think that this technology is something to be celebrated and not just profited from. Shouldn't the light bulb and antibiotics be celebrated? I certainly think so.
Celebrate antibiotics with commerce. Light bulbs are antiquated.

Life's not one big party. We're doing Satoshi's work.


Title: Re: We should have a humongous party in December to celebrate block #210,000
Post by: Atheros on March 12, 2012, 01:26:30 AM
What is Satoshi's work?


Title: Re: We should have a humongous party in December to celebrate block #210,000
Post by: Kluge on March 12, 2012, 01:31:48 AM
What is Satoshi's work?
Spreading the benefits of efficient economy everywhere possible. Allowing the impoverished to rise to lower-middle class, using the increased productivity to raise funds ensuring certain diabetics on this forum are able to use receive their insulin, expanding the capabilities and recognition of Silk Road, so those disabled by pain can function enough to provide for their family -- allowing those oppressed by their government to feel dignity for the first time, expanding a platform for artisans who know all about their product, and turning business as usual into something everyone takes pride in.


Lol, jk - let's get wasted!

Really, I believe Satoshi was pretty excited when he added emoticons to the forum. So, I guess we should use a lot of those in this thread.  :-*


Title: Re: We should have a humongous party in December to celebrate block #210,000
Post by: Littleshop on March 12, 2012, 01:45:35 AM
Yes.  A block party

I'm in!


Title: Re: We should have a humongous party in December to celebrate block #210,000
Post by: adamstgBit on March 12, 2012, 02:07:50 AM
Yes.  A block party.  

I'm in!

 I'm new to this is a block party online or RL?  


Title: Re: We should have a humongous party in December to celebrate block #210,000
Post by: rjk on March 12, 2012, 02:11:49 AM
Yes.  A block party.  

I'm in!

 I'm new to this is a block party online or RL?  

Why not both? Hopefully by that time, all the neighbors will know what Bitcoin is, since the fed will have imploded in on itself.


Title: Re: We should have a humongous party in December to celebrate block #210,000
Post by: ForceField on March 12, 2012, 02:17:43 AM
Yes.  A block party.  

I'm in!

 I'm new to this is a block party online or RL?  

Why not both? Hopefully by that time, all the neighbors will know what Bitcoin is, since the fed will have imploded in on itself.

Block parties usually have contests, games, and prizes.

Although small, perhaps prize amounts of 210,000 Satoshi's would be appropriate for the occasion.


Title: Re: We should have a humongous party in December to celebrate block #210,000
Post by: ptshamrock on March 12, 2012, 11:08:00 AM
Great IDea ! I will anounce a Block Party in Munich @ the local meetups Location !


Title: Re: We should have a humongous party in December to celebrate block #210,000
Post by: evoorhees on March 12, 2012, 01:42:12 PM
Great idea, definitely worthy of a party! Perhaps I'll organize one here in New England.


Title: Re: We should have a humongous party in December to celebrate block #210,000
Post by: Rassah on March 12, 2012, 02:04:05 PM
Celebrate a major drop in profits to all the miners, in the same way we celebrate the darkest and dreariest days of the year with Yuletide/Christmas/New Years? Sounds reasonable  ;)


Title: Re: We should have a humongous party in December to celebrate block #210,000
Post by: ptshamrock on March 12, 2012, 06:36:27 PM
Celebrate a major drop in profits to all the miners, in the same way we celebrate the darkest and dreariest days of the year with Yuletide/Christmas/New Years? Sounds reasonable  ;)

I would take a Bet that the net Profit  ( $ / hour / ghs)  will be higher than today . All Factors included . ( Okay we should add an gold clause)


Title: Re: We should have a humongous party in December to celebrate block #210,000
Post by: Red Emerald on March 12, 2012, 10:43:41 PM
A Block party sounds like a great idea.


Title: Re: We should have a humongous party in December to celebrate block #210,000
Post by: niko on March 12, 2012, 11:06:20 PM
I like the idea. We all deserve a break from worries, scams, attacks, lawsuits, coding, paranoia, business plans, profitability calculators, time-series analyses, and wishful thinking... Since it's going to be around December, we ought to consider the southern hemisphere, or at least the tropical belt. 

What's the region with relatively high density of Bitcoin users and nice climate in December?


Title: Re: We should have a humongous party in December to celebrate block #210,000
Post by: Cosbycoin on March 13, 2012, 12:38:33 AM
A once-every-four-years party? That's bigger than new-years! Already people have counters up like at p2pmining.com (http://p2pmining.com) counting down the days. Imagine the tension that would be in the room as we stare at a counter on the big screen knowing that at any second the block of the next era will be found. I think it would be exciting.

Six or eight blocks prior, two people can be assigned to stare at the counter (or a special program can be written) who yell "Block!" And everyone else yells back, "Hooray!"  ;D

Hopefully it will fall on a weekend. Culturally, if Bitcoin becomes very mainstream, everyone would take a de facto holiday.

Nothing like a halving of block reward to get you to orgasm on the INTERNETS. LOL ;D


Title: Re: We should have a humongous party in December to celebrate block #210,000
Post by: Cosbycoin on March 13, 2012, 12:40:42 AM
Celebrate a major drop in profits to all the miners, in the same way we celebrate the darkest and dreariest days of the year with Yuletide/Christmas/New Years? Sounds reasonable  ;)

Well now that all depends on if the price of bitcoin is plumetting, staying stable, or skyrocketing huh......future will tell us this while you keep staring in your picture...


Title: Re: We should have a humongous party in December to celebrate block #210,000
Post by: Rassah on March 13, 2012, 03:24:06 AM
Celebrate a major drop in profits to all the miners, in the same way we celebrate the darkest and dreariest days of the year with Yuletide/Christmas/New Years? Sounds reasonable  ;)

Well now that all depends on if the price of bitcoin is plumetting, staying stable, or skyrocketing huh......future will tell us this while you keep staring in your picture...

If it's plummeting, that'll only be more reason to party harder.
It's too bad a block party will only last an average of 10 minutes.


Title: Re: We should have a humongous party in December to celebrate block #210,000
Post by: FreeMoney on March 13, 2012, 06:30:55 AM
Celebrate a major drop in profits to all the miners, in the same way we celebrate the darkest and dreariest days of the year with Yuletide/Christmas/New Years? Sounds reasonable  ;)

Well now that all depends on if the price of bitcoin is plumetting, staying stable, or skyrocketing huh......future will tell us this while you keep staring in your picture...

If it's plummeting, that'll only be more reason to party harder.
It's too bad a block party will only last an average of 10 minutes.

Didn't you hear? Everyone will be done mining when the reward drops and we'll live at block 210000 forever.


Title: Re: We should have a humongous party in December to celebrate block #210,000
Post by: Ente on March 14, 2012, 02:45:52 PM
Blockparty? Great!
Or is it a halfing-party?
Or an instant-deflationary party?

Either way, I will try to be at any of those parties or start one here! :-)

Ente


Title: Re: We should have a humongous party in December to celebrate block #210,000
Post by: Vandroiy on March 15, 2012, 12:19:28 PM
Great IDea ! I will anounce a Block Party in Munich @ the local meetups Location !

Guess I wan't there early enough for that yesterday?

I've been thinking the same thing since New Years, but got too little time... the "Munich Minting Cut Party" would be awesome! ;D


Title: Re: We should have a humongous party in December to celebrate block #210,000
Post by: Tuxavant on March 15, 2012, 12:37:48 PM
The interesting thing about this is that it will happen everywhere around the globe at exactly the same time... Many people will get cock blocked by their time zone/routine.

If nothing else, I'll be in #bitcoin celebrating.


Title: Re: We should have a humongous party in December to celebrate block #210,000
Post by: Ente on March 15, 2012, 12:56:32 PM
[..]Many people will get cock blocked by their time zone/routine.[..]

Titcoin? https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=64404.0 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=64404.0)

SCNR

Ente


Title: Re: We should have a humongous party in December to celebrate block #210,000
Post by: runeks on March 18, 2012, 04:55:56 AM
The interesting thing about this is that it will happen everywhere around the globe at exactly the same time... Many people will get cock blocked by their time zone/routine.

If nothing else, I'll be in #bitcoin celebrating.
My current estimate (which doesn't take account for rising difficulty at all) tells me a time of 2012-12-09 11:16:15 GMT+1. So that's a late morning party for us Europeans at least.

(here's the Python code for anyone interested)
Code:
#!/usr/bin/python
import subprocess, time, datetime, urllib2, sys

get_blockcount_command = "bitcoind getblockcount"
COIN = 100000000

def floatstrip(x):
    if x == int(x):
        return str(int(x))
    else:
        return str(x)

def get_block_count():
   #first try with bitcoind
   try:
       return int(subprocess.Popen(get_blockcount_command.split(), stderr=subprocess.STDOUT, stdout=subprocess.PIPE).communicate()[0].rstrip('\n'))
   except ValueError:
      #if that didn't work, then with bitcoinexplorer.com
      try:
         req = urllib2.Request("http://blockexplorer.com/q/getblockcount")
         url = urllib2.urlopen(req)
         return int(url.read())
      except urllib2.HTTPError, e:
         print "Error getting block count from blockexplorer.com: " + str(e.code)
         print "couldn't get current block count :("
         sys.exit()

block_count = get_block_count()

print "Block count is:", block_count, "(only %d blocks to go!)" % (210000-(block_count % 210000))

subsidy = 50 * COIN
print "First %s BTC block will probably be mined at:" % (floatstrip((subsidy >> ((block_count / 210000)+1))/COIN)), datetime.datetime.fromtimestamp(time.time()+((210000-(block_count % 210000))*60*10)).strftime('%Y-%m-%d %H:%M:%S')


Title: Re: We should have a humongous party in December to celebrate block #210,000
Post by: notme on March 18, 2012, 04:57:08 AM
The interesting thing about this is that it will happen everywhere around the globe at exactly the same time... Many people will get cock blocked by their time zone/routine.

If nothing else, I'll be in #bitcoin celebrating.
My current estimate (which doesn't take account for rising difficulty at all) tells me a time of 2012-12-09 11:16:15 GMT+1. So that's a late morning party for us Europeans at least.

(here's the Python code for anyone interested)
Code:
#!/usr/bin/python
import subprocess, time, datetime, urllib2, sys

get_blockcount_command = "bitcoind getblockcount"
COIN = 100000000

def floatstrip(x):
    if x == int(x):
        return str(int(x))
    else:
        return str(x)

def get_block_count():
   #first try with bitcoind
   try:
       return int(subprocess.Popen(get_blockcount_command.split(), stderr=subprocess.STDOUT, stdout=subprocess.PIPE).communicate()[0].rstrip('\n'))
   except ValueError:
      #if that didn't work, then with bitcoinexplorer.com
      try:
         req = urllib2.Request("http://blockexplorer.com/q/getblockcount")
         url = urllib2.urlopen(req)
         return int(url.read())
      except urllib2.HTTPError, e:
         print "Error getting block count from blockexplorer.com: " + str(e.code)
         print "couldn't get current block count :("
         sys.exit()

block_count = get_block_count()

print "Block count is:", block_count, "(only %d blocks to go!)" % (210000-(block_count % 210000))

subsidy = 50 * COIN
print "First %s BTC block will probably be mined at:" % (floatstrip((subsidy >> ((block_count / 210000)+1))/COIN)), datetime.datetime.fromtimestamp(time.time()+((210000-(block_count % 210000))*60*10)).strftime('%Y-%m-%d %H:%M:%S')

Meh... way too much variance to even pin it down to a day at this point.


Title: Re: We should have a humongous party in December to celebrate block #210,000
Post by: runeks on March 18, 2012, 05:04:30 AM
I think I'll start tracking the predictions on a daily basis, just to see how much they fluctuate.


Title: Re: We should have a humongous party in December to celebrate block #210,000
Post by: Red Emerald on March 20, 2012, 11:48:17 PM
Meh... way too much variance to even pin it down to a day at this point.
I thought we were only like 2 days off from expected if you count from the genesis block.


Title: Re: We should have a humongous party in December to celebrate block #210,000
Post by: mb300sd on March 21, 2012, 01:51:25 AM
Maybe the Dec 21, 2012 thing isn't referring to the 21st day, but to the 210,000th block! Could it possibly be on the same day? The block reward halving is going to end the world!


Title: Re: We should have a humongous party in December to celebrate block #210,000
Post by: runeks on March 22, 2012, 12:51:40 AM
Meh... way too much variance to even pin it down to a day at this point.
I thought we were only like 2 days off from expected if you count from the genesis block.
Current projections say it'll happen like 24 days earlier than genesis block (http://blockexplorer.com/block/000000000019d6689c085ae165831e934ff763ae46a2a6c172b3f1b60a8ce26f) plus four years.

I'm currently making projections daily, and they look like they're decreasing by a couple of hours every day. So maybe it'll be a whole month before Jan 3rd.

Quote
Block count is: 171665 (only 38335 blocks to go!)
First 25 BTC block will probably be mined at: 2012-12-09 11:17:57
Block count is: 171800 (only 38200 blocks to go!)
First 25 BTC block will probably be mined at: 2012-12-09 08:19:55
Block count is: 171988 (only 38012 blocks to go!)
First 25 BTC block will probably be mined at: 2012-12-09 07:22:11
Block count is: 172168 (only 37832 blocks to go!)
First 25 BTC block will probably be mined at: 2012-12-09 05:02:38
Block count is: 172253 (only 37747 blocks to go!)
First 25 BTC block will probably be mined at: 2012-12-09 03:50:53


Title: Re: We should have a humongous party in December to celebrate block #210,000
Post by: marcus_of_augustus on March 22, 2012, 04:49:34 AM
Happy Satoshi Day .... only comes around every 4 years.

Edit: the random count from 10 blocks out will be interesting ... 10 ....9-8,.... 7 ... wait for it 6 ...5-4-3 ...


Title: Re: We should have a humongous party in December to celebrate block #210,000
Post by: Rassah on March 22, 2012, 02:12:40 PM
I'm currently making projections daily, and they look like they're decreasing by a couple of hours every day

I am guessing that the date will decrease until the next difficulty change (more miners returning time per block), then jump forward as difficulty increases (takes longer to find the block), and decrease again until the next difficulty change. If Bitcoin price goes way up, many more miners will suddenly join, bringing the date way down (I suspect last June was the reason it's happening a month early), and opposite if the price crashes.
Will be interesting to see what happens to the date fluctuations after the next difficulty change.


Title: Re: We should have a humongous party in December to celebrate block #210,000
Post by: runeks on March 25, 2012, 08:54:36 PM
^ As far as I can figure out, the moment of a difficulty adjustment shouldn't affect the date I predict. All I'm doing is this:

time_to_block210000 = blocks_left*10min

nothing more. Every day, the prediction moves about an hour or two closer. Seems to me this is because we are solving blocks quicker than than one per ten minutes. bitcoincharts.com says 6.26 per hour currently, so this actually agrees with the ~1 hour prediction time reduction per day (circa 4% faster, 4% = 0.96 hours per day).

If we assume hashing power is increasing slowly but steadily, the difference between prediction times should change the most right before a difficulty adjustment, be zero right after an adjustment and then begin rising slowly again until the next difficulty adjustment. The further we get away from a difficulty adjustment, the less accurate the 10-minutes-per-block figure will be, and so, consecutive predictions using this equation will differ the most. Here's the most recent list: we've moved into December 8th:

Code:
Block count is: 171665 (only 38335 blocks to go!)
First 25 BTC block will probably be mined at: 2012-12-09 11:17:57
Block count is: 171800 (only 38200 blocks to go!)
First 25 BTC block will probably be mined at: 2012-12-09 08:19:55
Block count is: 171988 (only 38012 blocks to go!)
First 25 BTC block will probably be mined at: 2012-12-09 07:22:11
Block count is: 172168 (only 37832 blocks to go!)
First 25 BTC block will probably be mined at: 2012-12-09 05:02:38
Block count is: 172253 (only 37747 blocks to go!)
First 25 BTC block will probably be mined at: 2012-12-09 03:50:53
Block count is: 172477 (only 37523 blocks to go!)
First 25 BTC block will probably be mined at: 2012-12-09 04:10:39
Block count is: 172653 (only 37347 blocks to go!)
First 25 BTC block will probably be mined at: 2012-12-09 00:10:36
Block count is: 172821 (only 37179 blocks to go!)
First 25 BTC block will probably be mined at: 2012-12-08 20:01:07

The next difficulty adjustment should take place in about 3.5 days and result in a ~5.9% difficulty increase.


Title: Re: We should have a humongous party in December to celebrate block #210,000
Post by: jCole on March 25, 2012, 09:17:28 PM
No thanks i will not celebrate 25 coins per block  :-[


Title: Re: We should have a humongous party in December to celebrate block #210,000
Post by: FreeMoney on March 25, 2012, 09:26:56 PM
No thanks i will not celebrate 25 coins per block  :-[

If you aren't excited for the drop you should keep more coins until you are.


Title: Re: We should have a humongous party in December to celebrate block #210,000
Post by: runeks on March 25, 2012, 10:55:08 PM
I'm certainly going to watch it live if I remember it. It's quite an interesting change if you ask me: to see all the thousands of computers running Bitcoin agreeing on what to do now.


Title: Re: We should have a humongous party in December to celebrate block #210,000
Post by: LightRider on March 25, 2012, 11:47:31 PM
I'll be celebrating. It's like marking the transition between the age of pi to the enlightened era of tau.


Title: Re: We should have a humongous party in December to celebrate block #210,000
Post by: marcus_of_augustus on March 26, 2012, 05:08:29 AM
I'll be celebrating. It's like marking the transition between the age of pi to the enlightened era of tau.

Good one ... http://tauday.com/ (http://tauday.com/)

http://latex.codecogs.com/gif.download?\tau&space;=&space;2\pi

We can have a second party on genesis block anniversary ... Jan. 03, 2013 (3:1:13) just for good measure, 2 is better than one :)


Title: Re: We should have a humongous party in December to celebrate block #210,000
Post by: Red Emerald on March 26, 2012, 06:49:15 AM
I'll be celebrating. It's like marking the transition between the age of pi to the enlightened era of tau.

Good one ... http://tauday.com/ (http://tauday.com/)

http://latex.codecogs.com/gif.download?\tau&space;=&space;2\pi

We can have a second party on genesis block anniversary ... Jan. 03, 2013 (3:1:13) just for good measure, 2 is better than one :)

Wow. Geometry and trig would have made so much more sense if I had read that back in High School.