Bitcoin Forum

Having been here for all of bitcoin rallies, I can see a pattern emerging. Pattern of time periods in bitcoin price history when you never know if todays price level will happen again, ever. Before last month, we all are lulled to believe that we will see $400 again and again and again, well, not anymore. Call that intuition or blind guessing, but be very careful when exiting bitcoin positions now, even partially - you may have no choice but to re-enter higher or much higher later. If you feel the urge to play short-term speculation, sell after spikes up and re-buy at the nearest correction, but try to avoid risking much at that; whatever you do, do not go to bed while in fiat.

You have been warned :)

but weren't you saying stuff like this throughout the whole bear market? maybe I am remembering wrong. :)

This post has me all hot and bothered.

... why would he warn you about selling BTC in a bear market...?

wat

"be very careful when exiting bitcoin positions now, even partially - you may have no choice but to re-enter higher or much higher later."

I can see the pattern as well, but nothing significant there TBH.

No, first time I said that :) Yes, I have always said that below $600 is a buy zone. And that you never sell bitcoins lower than you bought them. Other than that, before recent rise up it could have still went both ways. Somehow now I don't feel that anymore. We sure will be correcting on the way up, but some price levels, like $400, are gone forever now, and the trick is that every day that bottom line rises.

I miss read your post, sorry ignore me, my bad.

i was leaning towards an incoming bubble a couple months ago, but now i am more open to a retest of sub-400 levels. shrug, we'll see. ;D

I agree piramida.  I feel much safer sleeping in coins right now, than worrying about some silly dip that turns into a major bear trap right before takeoff.  You never know, takeoff could be months from now, or it literally could be tomorrow morning.

I think people that bought just after the bottom are much more skittish right now, than people who have been holding for the last 4+ months.

Another big tipoff for me to go all in?  All the bulls, the bears and the trolls disappeared from this board since the SR auction.  That leads me to believe that all 3 camps are ALL IN at this point, with nothing left to talk about!  ;D

The price will be about $ 1,000 for the new year anyway.

That is just investing 101... I guess you're just stating the obvious for all the newbies out there.

well, some people do try to trade the swings -- doing so accurately during the bear market would have paid off well.

Probably, shorter version for non-newbies will be "I think bear market is over so get your asses back in coins and don't blink for several months" :)

what are you saying, bubble coming? seems everyone thinks that. makes me nervous (being in coin)...

I agree with Piramida. I think this price is dirt cheap considering current mining costs and all the super positive news lately. I think it is pretty safe to say we wont go significantly lower unless bitcoin is completely destroyed.

 ??? I think you've got that the wrong way round

No he does not. I agree with piramida this is an extremely dangerous time to be a bit bear.

Been through 3 bubbles myself. No doubt another is a brewing! Been slowly buying every week since we broke the downtrend line that emerged from December to May.

It's good to look back on those calls to see how far bitcoin has come.

It'll never be under $50 / 100 / 500 again!!

Espirito Santo + an inverted derivatives pyramid.

If that is true that is actually a bad sign - we need somebody to panic buy to go substantially up ;)

Bitcoin has been prone to burn people who think they are going to get out then get back in ever since I've been watching it.  Long slow inclines leading up to a the next pop, then a decline which is nowhere near the last state.  I have to guess that many many people who thought they would be clever and significantly liquidate are sitting around crying many years after the fact.  Thankfully for me I never had big balls when it came to playing these games, and also it made me feel like a chump to support the habits of those running exchanges by paying their exchange fees.

+1

There's loads of things that could each cause a bubble on their own in the right situation.

The ETF
The hedgefund(s)
The geopolitical risks
The credit crisis
The potential for more/not stopping stimulus in USA/China

Yeah, it seems that "old believers" can drive price only so far. We either need "fresh fiat" windjc used to preach, or way for believers to invest their 401b in btc, too. ETFs, more hedge funds and US based exchanges should help a lot.

Careful ? you mean careful on wasting our inumerable, countless, incalculable quantity of money after Bitcoin get sky rocket right? ..

Yes. Exactly. That is what "adoption" means. New money, new users, new investors, more wealth transfer. And that is what is coming!

BTW - completely agree with OP. A very dangerous time to be playing games with fiat. Now is the time to make your bet on BTC (if you see the long-term value) and stick with it - at least until the next peak. Bitcoin's history (been through 3 bubbles) is strewn with regrets of early adopters who thought they could time the market, and ended up missing massive run-ups. Never to recover. Bitcoin may only have 2 or 3 order of magnitude run-ups to go. Don't miss one. Like piramida, just friendly advice for those who are open to hear.

It's not current all-in bitcoiners that cause a substantial rise.  It's the early quitters, the fence sitters, and the brand new panic buying newbies that outnumber existing bitcoiners by 10X factor that jump in at the 11th hour.  That's what causes a bubble.

Be greedy when everyone is fearful. Be a bear when everyone is a bull.

You are the first one to discover that :D Seriously, normally that might be the case but now this forum doesn't mean anything because lots of fresh fiat is coming to bitcoin ecosystem.

I feel like we are sitting on the top of a volcano building up to eruption, and the feeling is getting stronger by the day. To much sweet news lately. Buying more.

You live in Yellowstone?   ;D

No you are remembering correctly.....

......but u know what they say about stopped clocks n all that.....

I don't think these forums are a very good indicator of overall market sentiment. These forums generally always are bullish even when the price of bitcoin is falling/crashing. 

Be a broke bear when everyone is a bull :) I see enough doubters even on this forum to make for a healthy rally. And if you count all doubters from outside this little community, all the people who now say "bitcoin meh" or "$10 by June", you can see the huge potential which is not yet untapped! All it takes to ignite the rocket is a match, and we can't predict at this point when or what would serve as one.

Even MatTheCat got out of his manbear cave to participate in the action. Or in another futile attempt to quote me when we go to new lows :) Which he knows will not happen but keeps trying.

I must say I feel it too.

It feels VERY much like last fall. First hedge fund opening next month. ETF basically all but approved (could be okayed any day now). NY regulations and guidance coming out by end of month.

Smart money will get in BEFORE everything hits. I think we will start to see accumulation that starts to slowly move the market within the next 2 months.

I dont think ANYBODY really wants to sell in this climate, except those miners who must to pay the bills.

I really think smart money is going to get out in front of this next wave, because smart money is going to basically create this next wave with the funds.

^^^ exactly. they know its coming, and have been getting ready for a while. they're going to be sitting pretty during the rally while the masses panic buy it to the sky trying to catch up