Bitcoin Forum

Bitcoin has yet to go through a period of recession of the global economy.  How the price of Bitcoin reacts could have major implications for the question of "Store of Value".

There is no way to tell. The value seems disconnected from real world events.

I would think if there is Recession, bitcoin price would go up since USD down?

That is not sure, based on experience.

In time of recession, equity usually carries discount and cash carries premium.

If bitcoin is considered cash by majority, it will go up in price. If it is considered "property/asset" by majority, it will go down in price.

Bitcoin is still not mainstream, so I don't think that we can apply usual recession rules here.
I think nobody can predict what happen with bitcoin in the case of recession.
Each scenario is possible.

In severe recessions like in 2008-2009 most commodities and stocks went down while USD went up. But shortly after in 2010-2011 when it finished people became frightened of the USD again and started panic buying assets.

This will likely happen to bitcoin as well, it will go down initially along with the general market, but will go up faster when things settle down.

Correct.

Since it is still mostly a commodity you would probably see people cashing in bit coin to make ends meet. This would drive price lower. If it is widely accepted enough to use directly it could actually cause growth in bit coin due to more economic activity within the bit coin realm. 

the price will fall along with everything else.
but then the world's central banks will start printing money like crazy to stop the collapse, eventually driving the price to a new ATH.
this will probably continue until the world economy is completely ruined,
and politicians understand that having a small group of people centrally managing the interest rate and printing money does not work.

Prices do not usually fall in recessions, as there is usually still inflation, just at a lower rate then when the economy is doing well.

I would argue that the price would increase as people and companies seek to use forms of payment that cost less and would find bitcoin much cheaper then credit cards

It will either or stagnate or go up, i dont think it can go down with all those good news coming every day... in fact a fiat recession could be good for bitcoin.

The latest good news coming from DELL has close to 0 effect on price. I would considered this worrisome.

Zero speculative effect in the last few days following the announce.
Do you think someone at Dell knew and bought before the announce?
Like in June?
It need time to has an effects on the price and use of bitcoin.

You could know the cause-effect but it is difficult to pinpoint the time delay in-between

depends on what kind of recession ???

I'd say that Bitcoin may very well go up, since a lot of people would start buying higher than listed to get all their cash into coins before everyone else.

However it does depend on what type of recession, because a lot of it could end up with people selling their PCs and so to try and make end's meat, which would cause a slight drop in the price (or go up, since they're not technically in circulation) and then a lot of the coins would go cold.

A great way to capitalize off of that happening is buy cheap PCs, and set up "trade stations" whenever you can, where people can bring their coins to trade face-to-face (Or at least get internet access). I'd also recommend hiring a security guard, just to make sure things don't go out of hand.

And charge either entrance or usage fees, or a subscription like what gyms do. Then you can make money, probably pay off the security guard, and keep the Bitcoin economy flowing.

If people are exchanging that is.

I a truly free market it is hard to identify all of the factors in the price. I suspect all the good news is either buoying up what would be a bear market or there are some whales keeping the price artificially low in order to acquire more bit coin. Or I could be completely wrong.

On the contrary, it could indicate that the price of bitcoin may be stabilizing.
Might not be good news for speculators, but great news for bitcoin adoption.

Economic recession will definitely be beneficial to bitcoin

everything bad for fiat = good for cryptos ;D

up for sure, from now, the mini dump ended, no more obstacles


but this mean that the marketcap will go down, if usd go down i mean

It depends on the kind of recession and its consequences.

If it is able to create another sovereign debt threat in Europe or another banking crisis on small countries, that can indeed promote bitcoin.

A stagflation crisis could also promote bitcoin, since any serious inflation would do.

It's like the others currency, recession of currency is normally that happen to currency, almost all of the currency in the world has the recession
So, hopefully it is not longstanding ... So we can collect bitcoin more and more

What makes you say this? I don't think that this is the case at all. I think and expect the Bitcoin market to react to negative economic events like with what happened in Cyprus.

the great recession can be fought with a "store of value" like bitcoin, maybe bitcoin rised because of this

What do you mean about " store of value " like bitcoin ? how to " store of value " of bitcoin ?
please give me a explanation, hopefully you can give an explanation of this statement ...

Bitcoin is a store of value, not a useable currency unti 2050 or so when price is less volatile.

it mean that you store your value for long terms investment

The next recession?  What about the current one? ::) ;)

I think bitcoin price will be largely unaffected, because it is still small and is still in an early adoption phase. So macroeconomic influences are not a major factor while adoption is constantly rising, largely neutralizing the negative effects of a recession. That will change if adoption reaches its saturation phase.

ya.ya.yo!

I tend to agree with this. Bitcoin right now is considered an investment/asset by a majority. So you cannot say that it will go up in price during a recession.

This statement does not have logic. If you have cash then your cash is both an asset and your property. However something that is your asset is not necessarily cash-like.

To answer the OP's question, a recession itself would likely not cause bitcoin to increase in value. However to get the economy out of a recession a government will likely resort to policies that generally result in inflation which would bitcoin to increase in value in terms of fiat.

In a recession, people tend to prefer converting their investments (non-cash assets) to cash. So the question is do people consider bitcoins as an investment or as cash

If the toll of recession were to take its toll on the economy of the major economic giants like USA,Canada etc .I believe the end result will definitely be positive on the price of Bitcoin thereby a sky rocketed price rise.

Im poor so its not like i can lose more money.

The world is engulfed in an artificial sea of liquidity right now. The reasons you see so many inflated asset price in just about every category.

As soon as the faucet is cut off, all assets class will fall due to un-payable debt.

A balance sheet recession is on the cards....

I am not sure about this. As of now banks have huge amounts of excess reserves at the FED so the FED will not only have difficulty raising short term interest rates, stopping QE will have little effect on overall availability of credit.

Bitcoin has no connection with what goes on around with the global economy and global economical recession.But then also having valued to FIATs after all it might hamper somehow i