Bitcoin Forum

(This thread begins with a loud knock on a hard piece of wood.)

Since December bitcoin buyers and fresh fiat have seemingly gone into hibernation and never woken up. Their sleep seems almost endless, leaving many to believe that we are in the midst of an extended bear market (ala 2011 blah blah blabitty blah). And its a reasonable point. Even the "rallys" have been on historically low volume.

But in the last 3 months, one thing has been lacking even more than new buyers. NEW SELLERS. Go check bitcoin days destroyed. No sellers. Look at the historical exchange asks. No sellers. Look at the volume on "sell offs" since the end of April. No sellers. Where 'ol where have all the sellers gone? Well, lets look at some possible theories - theories that are certainly not exclusive of each other.

A) Sellers are afraid of exchanges. After MTGox, and after the increased AML identity criteria on Bitfinex and Bitstamp, miners and larger bitcoin holders just don't want to sell in current conditions. Maybe they are waiting for a more reputable, trustworthy exchange (albiet doubtful) or maybe they are waiting for an anonymous decentralized exchange (ie Nxt Multigateway) (probably doubtful, but possible).

B) Sellers are feeling bullish. Bulls keeping crying "but, dear God, all this good news has to push us higher" while bears respond "NO amount of good news ever pushes us higher, ha ha ha." But what if all this good news and pending developments (ETF, etc etc blah blah) are actually making everyone HODL?  Again, look at bitcoin days destroyed when we stalled at $420. Look at it now. See something similar? Meanwhile, hashrate continues to go up, indicating that miner profitability may be higher than we suspect. What if these miners can actually afford to HODL more than many have assumed?

C) Off exchange purchases are at an all time high (or are currently very high). What if large bitcoin holders and larger bitcoin miners have simply decided to fullfill a market of large buyers so that neither push up or pull down current market prices?  If I want to invest $5 million into bitcoin - do I send $1 million to 5 different exchanges and hope not to get too much slippage? Do I trust $1 million each to 5 different exchanges? Do I try to explain that to my bank(s)? Do I sit at my computer buying 3.4 btc at a time for a couple of weeks? Probably NOT. I probably go through some broker who has relationships or I have my lawyer call up miners or network for me. Exchange volume is at an ALL TIME LOW. The lower exchange volume drops, the MORE difficult it is for a large hand to buy without slippage and the MORE difficult it is for a large BTC owner or miner to sell without slippage. These parties are not day traders. Executing 150 small orders to try to fullfill a decent size bid or ask is probably not something many of these types care to do.

So what does all this mean? I contend that if these realities are true, most price watchers have been and will continue to look in the wrong direction - trying to measure and understand exchange BUYING. Meanwhile, the most important factor in how fast Bitcoin prices rise (or fall) over the intermediate term is actually exchange SELLING.

And, where 'ol where have all the sellers gone?

wouldn't you agree, though, that there is some hefty resistance above? it seems every time we try to push into the $630s, $650s, $680s, we keep getting smacked down by sellers. or is that just a lack of buyers?

Lack of buyers, imo.

well, i do remember the last bubble being preceded by what seemed to be thinner and thinner asks above. everyone said asks would fill in, but.... not so much. wouldn't that be nice. :)

And this is not a bad strategy.

A year ago, every bitcoin "expert" was attaching the following line to any bullish comment they made publically --> "but having said that, there is a still a good chance that bitcoin goes to $0."

Today, government legislation in being devised in the U.S. to make trading bitcoin licensed and legal in every sense of the word.

The worldwide eco-system of bitcoin business development and merchant acceptance is 20x that of what it was a year ago.

Demand is being built into the pipeline.  It may not go up in the next day, week, month, quarter. But without sellers, its going to go up. There is no other way.

Sellers? They on vocation w8 silently into the night for prices to jump.


Do you have any article claiming on this can you provide or post link.

We've probably near enough exhausted all the sellers in the current price range, but not enough buyers are coming in to drive up. The biggest worry is all of the people who got in during the last bubble above $700, I guess a lot of them are just waiting to cash out and get their money back. There is going to be unbelievable resistance up to $1200.

Hmmm. Really? Are you sure? I mean, I have heard this theory several times, but if you invested in Bitcoin between $700-$1200, then you probably have had some time to learn about bitcoin since then. Like the fact that it has already had several major bubble price growth periods. And if you haven't panicked sold yet, why would you sell as soon as you could break even, if the price is on the rise AGAIN?

Does not make a lot of sense to me. Although I am not saying your wrong.

Technical resistant at around 400 level. Any correction to 500 level will get scoop out quick.

Big potential sellers wait for a clear downtrend, which is not apparent now. IMO there's a looming correction in both bulllish and bearish scenarios.
But sellers wait until the last minute, and then sell if a downtrend is confirmed, that's how bitcoin trading works.

Very nice analysis!
I think all your theories are correct, and together are preventing the price from going up.
B seems to me to be the one which is playing the bigger part.

I understand that these trades may happen, but other than the 30k auction coins, I can't think of a single way to prove this. Is there something around the forum other than hearsay that you've seen? I don't get around the rest of the forum very much lately, so I don't know. Other sources?


Strangely, I was talking to windjc about this not too long ago. I was saying that this market is heavily reactionary in both directions. They wait for someone with deeper pockets than their own to move first, then they act upon that move. Often times it's too late and they have a loss or break-even trade. This is probably due to a lack experience in trading markets by the majority of participants here. This may also be a contributing factor to the hodl mentality.

I think that the sellers are generally holding their stake.

The bitcoin market price is at a point where it it has almost halved (at present) from its peak price - which was fuelled by goings on at MtGox, therefore people are waiting/fearful for further drops. Meanwhile the sellers are holding their stake in hope of the moon.

Stuff going on with the US Marshals auction has put a cap on things a little, though XBT seems to be holding pretty strong.

You're right about the volume though, it has been dead quiet. The number of trollbox users on BTC-E usually indicates how busy the markets are, at least at this end of the world.

It's the summer effect.

People are taking a break from cryptos.

Every major pump which happened, it happened in November ( If I'm not wrong ).

This!

Sellers can show up in droves on exchanges within an hour if there is some good fud. However, fiat buying pressure takes some time and is more predictable using TA.

Nah, what about the March/April 2013 bubble? But you're right that people are most probably taking a summer break or similar. When do you people think they'll be back and ready to throw some money at BTC again? I believe it could very well be late summer rather than fall already!

We dont need to "suspect" anything. Its simple math to calculate the profitability. Even with cheap electricity you will need an average difficulty increase well below 10% to break even with the best kit currently available.
Basicly, if you are hoping to to make money mining you are betting that you will get the miner delivered on time (haha, yeah, funny, i know) and that most companies selling mining hardware will go bust shortly thereafter ...

What if you have free electricity and develop your own chips?

Ooohhh. What then?

Oh, thats simple.
Then you sell electricity and take over the global power business. Why go through the hassle to do anything else?

Then you will have to use them yourself when you run out of suckers to sell them to and see and it works out.
Cough. (http://www.coindesk.com/bankrupt-bitcoin-mining-company-alydian-sell-218ths-mining-power/)

Next question please.

The previous bubbles didn't started all in the same period of the year and when it happened was just a coincidence.
There is always a real reason which trigger the rally, maybe the next will be the wall street big guys, who knows.

Well, last summer we bottomed ~ July 4th..... how about this year?

The fact that you think all miners operate at the same price point is misguided. They do not. This can be proven by reading comments and interviews with miners. Some are in the red. Some are very much in the black.

I really thought the SR US-Marshalls auction would be this year's trigger. The price actually went up quite a bit, but not enough to call it a major uptrend or the beginning of a new bubble. Also, unfortunately we went down a couple percent since this and are stagnating around the current level...

Having free power and generating power are two very different things.


Alydian is a joke.  How about you re-evaluate that question using KnC, Bitfury, or Bitmain instead?  Hell, even BFL likely has a largeish private farm.

I got into bitcoin during the spring 2013 rally, so that definitely wasn't a November pump. Now we're just getting into "astrology" again, reading tea leaves. Are we to believe because some people are taking a road trip, that suddenly bitcoin is a non-issue again? What type of unique occurrence could possibly come into play during summer only that dampens demand?

Most bitcoiners are median age of 30 years and above, and like me, sit in front of a computer all day for work, so summer doesn't mean anything special to them.

What about the April bubble? Didn't that start in January/February?

There is no such thing as "free power". You might have the electricity fee including in the rent for a flat, but there is no way to anyone will get the power to run a largish mining farm for free.

Just go the mining sections in this forum, or check something like this calculator (https://tradeblock.com/mining/). No available gear will break even at current rates.
And dont get me started about BFL. Those Monarchs are overdue by half a year and would only barely break even if they would cost about a third of what they sell for. No idea how high the markup is, but i really kind of doubt those are profitable even just counting R&D and production costs.

I'd say the sellers are keeping the price capped here quite nicely....

I'm not arguing the validity of "free power", I'm merely stating that the idea of a miner having "free" power doesn't necessarily mean they've got power to sell for mad profit as you so suggested.

Don't deflect.  The point stands that "miners" as in KnC, Bitfury, Bitmain, etc can all produce hardware that reaches an ROI, they may not sell it to you, the end-user in a manner that earns you a profit, but they certainly can manufacture HW that creates a return.

Exactly. Some of them have suggested their cost for BTC are in the $400 range.

Volume has gone down quite a bit compare to a few months ago.

If I have to guess, it is cash strap miner and payment processing company selling at this level.

Last year was November and it was huge. There are tread here with voting most voted that will happen in end of August or in September.


Hard to now when will this occur but seem like the more people are talking about it the are chances that it will happen sooner then later.

Dont you agree all?

I think c) is happening to some extend. Some whale speculators are scared because price is stagnating. Sharks are buying off exchange and then dump a percentage on the exchanges to keep the price low. At some point there will be no more scared whale speculators and the price will rise.

Also there is no "story" so there is little news about Bitcoin in the mainstream media.

Yeah, but it's only the people who have to liquidate regularly. Like miners, businesses, etc.! Bears can't seem to be doing anything to bring the price down at the moment.

Nooen wants to sell since they bought to get rich.
Bag holders allready sold, and dont real need more money.

I think that a lot of the price pressure lately is coming from the large businesses that are selling the bitcoin they receive from sales in bitcoin

Citation required.
Lets just use KnC as an example, they used to be the poster child of the mining scene.
Sure doesnt look that bright anymore. (http://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/news/ccn-reveals-timeline-kncminers-struggle-20nm-asic-bitcoin-miners/2014/07/22)
Interpreting Q1/Q2 as end of June, trying to wiggle out of promises. Cutting warranties. Declaring customers as business instead of consumers to wiggle out of consumer protection laws. Oh, and no more refunds obviously, the money is tied in datacenters and R&D after all.
But that doesnt matter, after all they mine themselves. And every one knows that only clean coins are going to be worth a lot (https://www.knccloud.com/blog/archive#clean-coins-new-concept-within-bitcoin). Those filthy stinkin coins you got, probably been used for crimes, drugs and/or stolen. Dont touch those stinkin coins. But keep those "clean" coins. Whatever you do, dont sell them. Dont bring the price down even further, aeh, i mean, its not about keeping the price up to keep the sales of hardware going, its just that only "clean" coins are going to be worth a lot. Promised  ;).

No, definately doesnt smell of despair.

I agree. 18 months ago there were a lot of people who had very modest to "All-in" bets on Bitcoin, but still had to work their day jobs to pay bills. In the last year and acquired some serious purchasing power and are probably spending some of it whether or not they are still working their jobs. I know after we go another 10x I will definitely be spending, but right now I'm hodling.

Well all of you day trader folks are frothing at the mouth to "SELL" at the first sign of raised prices, so you can make that $10 you've been dying to make.  I've always said its the traders that are the main cause for volatility and lack of price increases overall.  Its you guys trying to play the system that cause the lack of your own profit.  And everyone elses.  Stop day trading Bitcoin.

-B-

There are no sellers, only whales triying to buy now.!

Sellers are drying up. We're in that part of the cycle now.

Or they keep it for suddenly price change. Maybe they try to manipulate with marketplaces in secrete so that they can influence in price change.

i hope so. i've bought back all in by now, so i could do with a nice rally. :)

as far as "Where are the SELLERS?" i'd say they are the ones who are repeatedly stacking ask walls and dumping several hundred coins at a time. but it does smell like 440 price action.....

Some sellers are left - they are currently trying to push price in $5xxs again. But agree it maybe $440s all over again.

The Ethereum crowd are selling.

The problem is we need an influx of new users.  Most of us who have been around a while aren't willing to pay more than $700 per BTC to any large degree, myself included.  A lot of the logic of long time bitcoiners is "The price was JUST $350 like two months ago, I ain't payin' double for it now! gah!"

So many of us are just waiting for the next flash crash so I can empty my "money I've saved up to buy bitcoin during a flash crash" earmarked funds...

they are right here dumping 15k+ coins

Yeah, these sell offs are MASSIVE. lol

We got your sellers and now we are sub 600 ;D

If it was lack of sellers, the price should goes down, you are talking about low volume in general.

We are sub 600 but the value seems to recover, the buy wall at 590$ resisted to the sell pressure and the price is bouncing upwards now.

Nonesense! Take a look at the long-term volume over all exchanges: https://data.bitcoinity.org/markets/volume/6m?c=e&t=a&volume_unit=btc (https://data.bitcoinity.org/markets/volume/6m?c=e&t=a&volume_unit=btc) We're on our way to the moon!

Not exactly true. The volume simply shifted from some exchanges to others. We're still at normal levels, for this point in time even above them. Many people don't know about this nifty site: https://data.bitcoinity.org/markets/volume/2y?c=e&t=a&volume_unit=btc (https://data.bitcoinity.org/markets/volume/2y?c=e&t=a&volume_unit=btc)

I think option a is the most realistic, there is a bit of problem related to trust of exchanges since Mt. Gox scammed so many people. And there is another thing, price is almost half of the highest which was here 7 months ago, so people still don't wan't to sell, waiting to get at least 1,200$ per piece.

Still need time to pass if price will go over 1000$. Will happen yes. When that is something else.
Surely wont be in next month or two but in long term investment this will happen maybe same time like last year.

You asked for sellers and they came!!!  :D
A wish come true!  :o

The sellers are waiting to dump at $720, $840, $945 - those numbers seem familiar?  We spent almost a month jumping each of those levels - they've almost become little orbital path like electron energy states  :D

I think the people who needed the cash have dumped and took their losses.  Those who got in higher are sitting and may or may not dump on the way up.  Buyers are definitely lacking.

Yep, wondering when we might see some panic in the upwards direction. It's been sparse. Likewise, not much panic going down. I actually think we are bottoming at this $590 level.... but buyers are going to have to appear at some point....

Chilling and waiting for the best time to sell.  :D