Bitcoin Forum

A friend of mine just started blog as he noticed the volume drop off for the major exchanges. (OKcoin, btc-e, etc.)

If you've noticed it as well, feel free to post your theories here:

http://www.isbitcoinover.com/is-bitcoin-over-where-has-the-volume-gone/

More people tends to hold their coin in wallet. The appreciation of BTC is known by most people. Why not hold and wait the dramatic increase of price?

It's pretty quiet, thats why. I have not looked at the charts, but just by looking at the price, I know something is off. Dell started accepting bitcoin, and then the price jumped by about 10 dollars, then it dropped by a few, now it's back to pre-Dell announcement...odd odd and odd.

I think we are still seeing some whale manipulation. Once the market cap gets high enough it won't be as easy to do it. I don't mind so much because lower prices in the short term mean it is easier to acquire.

We haven't really been seeing all the inflated trading numbers lately though

Merchants acceptance of BTC is different from consumers' acceptance. Merchants provide another payment method to attract more customers. Consumers are still reluctant to accept and spend BTC.

can we see $520 again?

I think we will go lower again ind due course
Customer adoption and spending lagging merchant adoption continues unabated and is a reality that cannot be wished away

If this is the case, they effectively weren't relevant to previous bubbles either. So we may just be in the same boat as during previous runs!

Newegg announcement sent BTC up by a good $40 and then it went down.

It's all hype buying by whales and the masses, a mini-pump and dump if it were.   True capitalization growth will come with either deflationary velocity or new adopters and the latter doesn't really seem to be happening as much anymore.

It's actually just how day trading works. People wait for news on a specific stock and as soon as good (or bad news, respectively) come up and then buy or sell accordingly. The key to success is to know when to leave the train and time the spike. That's the gamble.

And precisely that is why Bitcoin is $600 and not $1200 or $2000.  A lot of people got burned by the volatility, the day traders are making a killing on BTC and all the alternates but at the price of alienating newcomers.

No volatility, so the trade people got tired and go play Minecraft or do something else, so less volume.

This drop for me is a normal one, not a sub-600 jump, at least for now.

its the summer

investors going on vacation now their kids are at home for summer,
students not trading on campus pc's
basement dwellers thrown into summer camp to gt some sun
some countries are getting ready for tax seasons so moving their coins to do thir accounting easier

also being summer, its time for people to buy that convertible they been admiring at the dealership
cash out some coins and show off your wealth to all them ladies in bikini's
buy that beach cocktail bar .. simply because you can

Keep an eye on mainstream media. It's a good indicator of where BTC is going to go. Good news = up slightly, bad news = down slightly. You can set a watch by that.

Have posted above just before this current sudden drop to below 600, already expecting this drop to come.

Ha yeah, I also believe in the theory that the price is now being held back by the great hot fiery ball in the sky! It's true, a lot of people are on holiday.
On the other hand, the volume got lower on the various exchanges. If we take a look at the cumulative volume, it's still the same, keep calm! :)

The problem with big news of big corps adopting btc, is they are not promoting it on their sites, go to dell, overstock and whatever, no real btc push on front doors.

Also if you are on those sites, the odds of someone having a btc wallet is tiny, very tiny.

We estimate 2M range of user wallets right now, that's a tiny fraction of people on earth, so merchants do some work in programming to take the coin then they see no one using it.

Then the hoarding issue is a problem too, many wallets buy btc and don't spend it.

The transactions of btc have not seen major growth in units of btc being moved in over a year, in fact you saw many huge spurts of btc movement over a year ago.

Now it's the same old 50K to 80K btc transactions every day.

Compare that to the 800M visa/mc/amex trans every day

So 80K usual trans in btc any given day and that level hasn't really moved much while values and numbers of wallets have jumped.

80K to 800M btc trans versus cc trans

So if btc moves towards 800M or 10% of the GWP it would have to move

800K trans
8M trans
80M trans
800M trans

That would indicate broadbase user growth and a growing btc economy

Yet we have the same old 80K of transaction for over a year

Right now 80K transactions has created a 1K/500 USD value bubble

80K trans 1K/500
800K trans 10k/5K
8M trans 100K/50K
80M trans 1M/500K
800M trans 10M/5M

So the transaction curve matched to current values is wrong, since 8B trans would put btc at 100M/50M value and that would make the bitcoin economy 1.2 Quadtrillion and not 85 Trillion which is the 100% value of the GWP

That's why user base ratios was used in the www.BitcoinAlgorithm.com to find an algorithm to match the historic support levels and peaks of the value curve of btc.

Now if you put these numbers on btc value and growth it works

70K users or my wallets on blockchain.info you saw 100 peak and 50 support

So now let's grow that number

70K wallets (not trans) 100/50
700K wallets 1K/500 (the end of 2013 you had 700K my wallets as reported by blockchain.info)
7M 10k/5K the next bubble peak and valley or floor support of 5K
70M 100K/50K
700M 1M/500K (10% of the world pop and 10% of the GWP)
7B 10M/5M (100% global currency the world uses bitcoin)

So even with mass government control in many major regions, at 700M users or 10% of the population of the world you have a 1M peak and 500K value support to btc

Some of the info about how government regulations will not stop bitcoin is at

www.BitcoinManifesto.org

The numbers above are from www.BitcoinAlgorithm.com

Today's moves were the usual short term moves influenced by 1 or many factors, but the move had nothing to do with inherent value of btc as a valid currency based upon it's growing user base support of wallets.

So right now we have some looking at transactions and seeing no real growth in the number of transactions and maybe dumping btc causing minor drops

Good the lower it goes the better the postion to get in for the next bubble which not ride on news of huge transactions growth, it will ride on the news that wallet growth has surpassed 7M users or .1% of the worlds population.

.1% of the GWP is 80B ten times todays value of btc

See the fundamentals

LOL