Bitcoin Forum

Economy => Speculation => Topic started by: kokojie on July 24, 2014, 01:11:33 PM



Title: My theory is proving true once again
Post by: kokojie on July 24, 2014, 01:11:33 PM
I had a theory that major retailer acceptance has a short term DOWN effect on the price. Because when a major retailer announce acceptance, old coin holders rush to spend some bitcoin to support that retailer, often creating millions of dollars of transaction volume in a few days, and all these bitcoin will be converted to fiat by the retailer, creating sell pressure, for the short term.


Title: Re: My theory is proving true once again
Post by: Torque on July 24, 2014, 01:13:16 PM
Yep, confirmed.  Because it was easy to check and see.


Title: Re: My theory is proving true once again
Post by: Tzupy on July 24, 2014, 01:21:34 PM
The seller pressure from BTC accepting retailers is relatively small. This dump was initiated by China,
and the reason is that the Chinese bagholders are increasingly impatient. For the bullish scenario time is running out.


Title: Re: My theory is proving true once again
Post by: Malin Keshar on July 24, 2014, 01:50:52 PM
The bitcoin selling pressure by commerces is not a new or unknown one.

But I doubt people would follow that theory before the sellings are open and strong.


Title: Re: My theory is proving true once again
Post by: Wesley on July 24, 2014, 01:56:58 PM
Don't people who use their BTC to buy from Bitcoin-accepting merchants usually replenish their lost BTC after a while? That would create a net neutral effect on Bitcoin prices.


Title: Re: My theory is proving true once again
Post by: minerpumpkin on July 24, 2014, 02:04:50 PM
Don't people who use their BTC to buy from Bitcoin-accepting merchants usually replenish their lost BTC after a while? That would create a net neutral effect on Bitcoin prices.

They can't do so forever. Depends on the respective individuals. We'd have to figure out what the typical Bitcoin customer is doing!


Title: Re: My theory is proving true once again
Post by: lynn_402 on July 24, 2014, 02:05:19 PM
Don't people who use their BTC to buy from Bitcoin-accepting merchants usually replenish their lost BTC after a while? That would create a net neutral effect on Bitcoin prices.

I doubt that most early adopters, who still have hundreds of BTC bought for a few dollars, would want to buy back the same amount at a price higher by a few orders of magnitude after spending them with a new merchant.


Title: Re: My theory is proving true once again
Post by: Tzupy on July 24, 2014, 02:08:16 PM
Don't people who use their BTC to buy from Bitcoin-accepting merchants usually replenish their lost BTC after a while? That would create a net neutral effect on Bitcoin prices.

I doubt that most early adopters, who still have hundreds thousands of BTC bought for a few dollars, would want to buy back the same amount at a price higher by a few orders of magnitude after spending them with a new merchant.

FTFY. Early adopters can easily replenish and even increase their BTC holdings by trading.


Title: Re: My theory is proving true once again
Post by: kokojie on July 24, 2014, 02:24:34 PM
Don't people who use their BTC to buy from Bitcoin-accepting merchants usually replenish their lost BTC after a while? That would create a net neutral effect on Bitcoin prices.

I doubt that most early adopters, who still have hundreds thousands of BTC bought for a few dollars, would want to buy back the same amount at a price higher by a few orders of magnitude after spending them with a new merchant.

FTFY. Early adopters can easily replenish and even increase their BTC holdings by trading.

trading is a good way to lose your BTC holdings, even if you manage to not lose in trades, you still lose money to the exchange by paying a percentage trading fee.


Title: Re: My theory is proving true once again
Post by: minerpumpkin on July 24, 2014, 02:59:51 PM
Don't people who use their BTC to buy from Bitcoin-accepting merchants usually replenish their lost BTC after a while? That would create a net neutral effect on Bitcoin prices.

I doubt that most early adopters, who still have hundreds thousands of BTC bought for a few dollars, would want to buy back the same amount at a price higher by a few orders of magnitude after spending them with a new merchant.

FTFY. Early adopters can easily replenish and even increase their BTC holdings by trading.

trading is a good way to lose your BTC holdings, even if you manage to not lose in trades, you still lose money to the exchange by paying a percentage trading fee.

Well, if you actually know what you're doing, you don't lose. People around here always keep saying that daytrading is stupid and you'll always lose. Other add that only big whales win, and everyone else gets ripped off. I believe there are people who know what they're doing and are successful by doing it!


Title: Re: My theory is proving true once again
Post by: BTCtrader71 on July 24, 2014, 03:28:04 PM
Don't people who use their BTC to buy from Bitcoin-accepting merchants usually replenish their lost BTC after a while? That would create a net neutral effect on Bitcoin prices.

They can't do so forever. Depends on the respective individuals. We'd have to figure out what the typical Bitcoin customer is doing!

Sure they can. Many early adopters intend to use bitcoin as a currency, and to hold it as a long term investment. Doing both at the same time means replenishing what you use as you go along. When I buy something online, I use bitcoin if I have the chance, but I prefer to deplete my USD savings rather than my bitcoin savings, so I do a quick USD -> btc -> purchase. If it's a miniscule amount then I might not bother with the USD -> bitcoin step, but if a bunch of miniscule purchases added up, then I would still eventually replete my bitcoin holdings.


Title: Re: My theory is proving true once again
Post by: InwardContour on July 24, 2014, 03:35:00 PM
I had a theory that major retailer acceptance has a short term DOWN effect on the price. Because when a major retailer announce acceptance, old coin holders rush to spend some bitcoin to support that retailer, often creating millions of dollars of transaction volume in a few days, and all these bitcoin will be converted to fiat by the retailer, creating sell pressure, for the short term.

Yes this is the real reason because the price is falling, but I think this is an healthy consolidation.
These good news are building trust in bitcoins among the adopters, more bigger companies will follow DELL in the next months.


Title: Re: My theory is proving true once again
Post by: UnDerDoG81 on July 24, 2014, 03:51:44 PM
I had a theory that major retailer acceptance has a short term DOWN effect on the price. Because when a major retailer announce acceptance, old coin holders rush to spend some bitcoin to support that retailer, often creating millions of dollars of transaction volume in a few days, and all these bitcoin will be converted to fiat by the retailer, creating sell pressure, for the short term.

If the retailers sell immediately and in masses, they are stupid and they lose money that way.


Title: Re: My theory is proving true once again
Post by: kokojie on July 24, 2014, 04:03:15 PM
Don't people who use their BTC to buy from Bitcoin-accepting merchants usually replenish their lost BTC after a while? That would create a net neutral effect on Bitcoin prices.

I doubt that most early adopters, who still have hundreds thousands of BTC bought for a few dollars, would want to buy back the same amount at a price higher by a few orders of magnitude after spending them with a new merchant.

FTFY. Early adopters can easily replenish and even increase their BTC holdings by trading.

trading is a good way to lose your BTC holdings, even if you manage to not lose in trades, you still lose money to the exchange by paying a percentage trading fee.

Well, if you actually know what you're doing, you don't lose. People around here always keep saying that daytrading is stupid and you'll always lose. Other add that only big whales win, and everyone else gets ripped off. I believe there are people who know what they're doing and are successful by doing it!

Trading is a game where 95% of the people loses and 5% of the people win big. Same thing on wallstreet and in Bitcoinland. The real challenge is knowing whether you are the 95% or the 5% before you invest your time and money into trading.

There's an additional catch in Bitcoin land, even when you win in terms of fiat, you could still lose if you hold the fiat, due to Bitcoin appreciation.

Buy and Hold has been the proven successful strategy in Bitcoinland.


Title: Re: My theory is proving true once again
Post by: An amorous cow-herder on July 24, 2014, 06:14:24 PM
Many early adopters intend to use bitcoin as a currency, and to hold it as a long term investment. Doing both at the same time means replenishing what you use as you go along. When I buy something online, I use bitcoin if I have the chance, but I prefer to deplete my USD savings rather than my bitcoin savings, so I do a quick USD -> btc -> purchase. If it's a miniscule amount then I might not bother with the USD -> bitcoin step, but if a bunch of miniscule purchases added up, then I would still eventually replete my bitcoin holdings.

Ok, here´s the thing i dont get. Why would anyone want to do that?
So you loose money on the exchange (fees), pay the transaction fee and dont get any fancy things like cash back you would get using a credit card. So, basicly you are paying a premium for being able to use bitcoin?


Title: Re: My theory is proving true once again
Post by: kokojie on July 24, 2014, 06:31:47 PM
Many early adopters intend to use bitcoin as a currency, and to hold it as a long term investment. Doing both at the same time means replenishing what you use as you go along. When I buy something online, I use bitcoin if I have the chance, but I prefer to deplete my USD savings rather than my bitcoin savings, so I do a quick USD -> btc -> purchase. If it's a miniscule amount then I might not bother with the USD -> bitcoin step, but if a bunch of miniscule purchases added up, then I would still eventually replete my bitcoin holdings.

Ok, here´s the thing i dont get. Why would anyone want to do that?
So you loose money on the exchange (fees), pay the transaction fee and dont get any fancy things like cash back you would get using a credit card. So, basicly you are paying a premium for being able to use bitcoin?

Yep, this is my other theory, is that Bitcoin will NEVER be popular for regular domestic purchases, even online. The regular consumer simply will choose credit cards, every single time (unless for some reason anonymity is highly valued).

Bitcoin will shine in international trade/purchase, and also legal grey areas, such as gambling, adult business and drugs. Bitcoin has become THE currency of the Dark Net Markets, Bitcoin also enabled Dark Net economy to thrive and grow exponentially. Eventually, the physical shadow economy of the world will pick up Bitcoin too. It's simply better.


Title: Re: My theory is proving true once again
Post by: An amorous cow-herder on July 24, 2014, 06:41:27 PM
Yep, this is my other theory, is that Bitcoin will NEVER be popular for regular domestic purchases, even online. The regular consumer simply will choose credit cards, every single time (unless for some reason anonymity is highly valued).
Not necessarily. But there just isnt any decent infrastructure in place. That might change with 1000 bitcoin ATMs (http://www.coindesk.com/bitxatm-1000-bitcoin-atm-us/). Assuming the fees are low enough, the current 3-7% fees existing ATMs take is just plain robbery. Add some bonus similiar to cash back and bitcoin may actually be a valid option for "normal" people. But thats still a long way to go.


Title: Re: My theory is proving true once again
Post by: kokojie on July 24, 2014, 10:42:51 PM
Yep, this is my other theory, is that Bitcoin will NEVER be popular for regular domestic purchases, even online. The regular consumer simply will choose credit cards, every single time (unless for some reason anonymity is highly valued).
Not necessarily. But there just isnt any decent infrastructure in place. That might change with 1000 bitcoin ATMs (http://www.coindesk.com/bitxatm-1000-bitcoin-atm-us/). Assuming the fees are low enough, the current 3-7% fees existing ATMs take is just plain robbery. Add some bonus similiar to cash back and bitcoin may actually be a valid option for "normal" people. But thats still a long way to go.


Bitcoin can't compete on ATM vs existing banks domestically, I've never paid a ATM fee in my life for domestic ATM usage. Since my bank's branch+ATM is nearly everywhere. Even when I do use a 3rd party ATM ocassionally, my bank will cover the fee for me.

Again, the key is international. I did pay a rather high ATM fee when I traveled to Mexico and Europe and used my debit card at ATMs to withdraw the local currency. I would have preferred to just sell my Bitcoin and get the local currency.


Title: Re: My theory is proving true once again
Post by: ArbatDeli on July 24, 2014, 10:44:53 PM
Seems fairly unproven to me..... ;)


Title: Re: My theory is proving true once again
Post by: BTCtrader71 on July 24, 2014, 10:50:06 PM
Many early adopters intend to use bitcoin as a currency, and to hold it as a long term investment. Doing both at the same time means replenishing what you use as you go along. When I buy something online, I use bitcoin if I have the chance, but I prefer to deplete my USD savings rather than my bitcoin savings, so I do a quick USD -> btc -> purchase. If it's a miniscule amount then I might not bother with the USD -> bitcoin step, but if a bunch of miniscule purchases added up, then I would still eventually replete my bitcoin holdings.

Ok, here´s the thing i dont get. Why would anyone want to do that?
So you loose money on the exchange (fees), pay the transaction fee and dont get any fancy things like cash back you would get using a credit card. So, basicly you are paying a premium for being able to use bitcoin?

When you buy an amazon gift card through Gyft.com, you get 3% rewards points. I lose 1 or 1.5% on the spread (difference between the buy price at coin base including fees and the rate on gift.com; I've tried this on multiple occasions, executing both transactions simultaneously) and I lose 1% cash back that I would otherwise get using my Discover card on Amazon. So the net is that I come out 0.5 to 1% ahead.


Title: Re: My theory is proving true once again
Post by: CoinsCoinsEverywhere on July 24, 2014, 11:44:15 PM
Well, if you actually know what you're doing, you don't lose. People around here always keep saying that daytrading is stupid and you'll always lose. Other add that only big whales win, and everyone else gets ripped off. I believe there are people who know what they're doing and are successful by doing it!

Trading is a game where 95% of the people loses and 5% of the people win big. Same thing on wallstreet and in Bitcoinland. The real challenge is knowing whether you are the 95% or the 5% before you invest your time and money into trading.

There's an additional catch in Bitcoin land, even when you win in terms of fiat, you could still lose if you hold the fiat, due to Bitcoin appreciation.

Buy and Hold has been the proven successful strategy in Bitcoinland.
The best way to win at day trading is to be the whale that moves the market.  That way you take out the guesswork.  The one danger, of course, is if there's an even bigger whale out there that gobbles you up.


Title: Re: My theory is proving true once again
Post by: williamj2543 on July 24, 2014, 11:47:32 PM
Good analysis. I don't know anything about investments and market predictions...


Title: Re: My theory is proving true once again
Post by: tspacepilot on July 24, 2014, 11:51:53 PM
Yah I've been wondering about the biggish drop in price yesterday.  I have no idea if you're right about the retailers or if the other dude is right about China.  But it is curious.  Thanks for the theory, I'm not sure it's "proven" but it is interesting.


Title: Re: My theory is proving true once again
Post by: Benjig on July 24, 2014, 11:53:17 PM
Chinesse bagholders who bought around 200-300 plus the merchants dumping definetely is a short term sell pressure.


Title: Re: My theory is proving true once again
Post by: CoinsCoinsEverywhere on July 25, 2014, 12:44:24 AM
Chinesse bagholders who bought around 200-300 plus the merchants dumping definetely is a short term sell pressure.
That's possible, but you don't know that for sure.  I doubt that merchants would dump a bunch of coins all at the same time.  I would think that they'd convert them as soon as they get them to avoid potential loss.  It's also possible that a whale just decided to dump a bunch of BTC, whether to cash some in or push the market down or whatever.


Title: Re: My theory is proving true once again
Post by: An amorous cow-herder on July 25, 2014, 10:30:53 PM
When you buy an amazon gift card through Gyft.com, you get 3% rewards points. I lose 1 or 1.5% on the spread (difference between the buy price at coin base including fees and the rate on gift.com; I've tried this on multiple occasions, executing both transactions simultaneously) and I lose 1% cash back that I would otherwise get using my Discover card on Amazon. So the net is that I come out 0.5 to 1% ahead.
Actually you loose 0.0% - 0.5% since buying the Gyft card with a credit card also earns you 1% reward points, according to Gyft (http://www.gyft.com/points/). Fairly negligable difference in that case, granted.


Title: Re: My theory is proving true once again
Post by: BusyBeaverHP on July 26, 2014, 07:02:06 AM
Dell and Newegg offers 10% off with bitcoin purchases. That pretty much beats any fees incurred from purchasing bitcoins and create incentive for a closed-loop bitcoin economy.


Title: Re: My theory is proving true once again
Post by: An amorous cow-herder on July 26, 2014, 10:18:33 AM
Dell and Newegg offers 10% off with bitcoin purchases. That pretty much beats any fees incurred from purchasing bitcoins and create incentive for a closed-loop bitcoin economy.
Those are limited time promotional offers. Only for Alienware with Dell, and lets just check Newegg (http://www.newegg.com/bitcoin) for a moment.
*Offer expires July 31, 2014 at 11:59PM PT. Offer valid while funds and/or supplies last.
Does not include Newegg Promotional Gift Cards, Marketplace or Open Box items.
Cannot be combined with other promo codes, or promotions that include a free gift.
Total discount limited to $100. Enter promo code: BITCOIN at checkout.
Discount not applicable to taxes or shipping.
Discount is applied before taxes and shipping are calculated.
Offer is only valid for purchases made using bitcoin. By using the promo code,
you consent to receive additional deals and promotions through our e-mail newsletter.
Limit one discount per customer.

All prices reflect the final price after savings/rebate(s). Offers expire 07/31/2014 at 11:59 P.M. PT.


Especially the "Cannot be combined with other promo codes part".
Is that Bitcoin promo really better than would you could get for Alienware (http://www.retailmenot.com/view/alienware.com?c=4978607) or Newegg (http://www.retailmenot.com/view/newegg.com?c=6050129) anyway?


Title: Re: My theory is proving true once again
Post by: CoinsCoinsEverywhere on July 26, 2014, 06:46:42 PM
Dell and Newegg offers 10% off with bitcoin purchases. That pretty much beats any fees incurred from purchasing bitcoins and create incentive for a closed-loop bitcoin economy.
Those are limited time promotional offers. Only for Alienware with Dell, and lets just check Newegg (http://www.newegg.com/bitcoin) for a moment.
*Offer expires July 31, 2014 at 11:59PM PT. Offer valid while funds and/or supplies last.
Does not include Newegg Promotional Gift Cards, Marketplace or Open Box items.
Cannot be combined with other promo codes, or promotions that include a free gift.
Total discount limited to $100. Enter promo code: BITCOIN at checkout.
Discount not applicable to taxes or shipping.
Discount is applied before taxes and shipping are calculated.
Offer is only valid for purchases made using bitcoin. By using the promo code,
you consent to receive additional deals and promotions through our e-mail newsletter.
Limit one discount per customer.

All prices reflect the final price after savings/rebate(s). Offers expire 07/31/2014 at 11:59 P.M. PT.


Especially the "Cannot be combined with other promo codes part".
Is that Bitcoin promo really better than would you could get for Alienware (http://www.retailmenot.com/view/alienware.com?c=4978607) or Newegg (http://www.retailmenot.com/view/newegg.com?c=6050129) anyway?
While I agree that in the short term these promos aren't going to help the price of bitcoin much, it does raise awareness and get people to try it.  If nothing else, it's a step in the right direction.


Title: Re: My theory is proving true once again
Post by: kokojie on July 27, 2014, 12:26:51 AM
Dell and Newegg offers 10% off with bitcoin purchases. That pretty much beats any fees incurred from purchasing bitcoins and create incentive for a closed-loop bitcoin economy.
Those are limited time promotional offers. Only for Alienware with Dell, and lets just check Newegg (http://www.newegg.com/bitcoin) for a moment.
*Offer expires July 31, 2014 at 11:59PM PT. Offer valid while funds and/or supplies last.
Does not include Newegg Promotional Gift Cards, Marketplace or Open Box items.
Cannot be combined with other promo codes, or promotions that include a free gift.
Total discount limited to $100. Enter promo code: BITCOIN at checkout.
Discount not applicable to taxes or shipping.
Discount is applied before taxes and shipping are calculated.
Offer is only valid for purchases made using bitcoin. By using the promo code,
you consent to receive additional deals and promotions through our e-mail newsletter.
Limit one discount per customer.

All prices reflect the final price after savings/rebate(s). Offers expire 07/31/2014 at 11:59 P.M. PT.


Especially the "Cannot be combined with other promo codes part".
Is that Bitcoin promo really better than would you could get for Alienware (http://www.retailmenot.com/view/alienware.com?c=4978607) or Newegg (http://www.retailmenot.com/view/newegg.com?c=6050129) anyway?

I found that during the Bitcoin promotion at newegg, everything I wanted to buy was 5%-10% cheaper at amazon...


Title: Re: My theory is proving true once again
Post by: kokojie on July 28, 2014, 01:21:53 PM
I guess Dell is still mass converting to fiat from their 10% off Bitcoin sale.


Title: Re: My theory is proving true once again
Post by: kokojie on August 01, 2014, 06:19:20 PM
Well, looks like the initial short term drop is over? price is creeping up, maybe the retailers are not converting much to fiat now since the initial rush to spend is gone.


Title: Re: My theory is proving true once again
Post by: CoinsCoinsEverywhere on August 01, 2014, 10:19:04 PM
Well, looks like the initial short term drop is over? price is creeping up, maybe the retailers are not converting much to fiat now since the initial rush to spend is gone.
If we can hold 600 for a while, then I'd say yes.  Argentina's default a couple days ago may also be playing a role.  Now we just need to break 685....


Title: Re: My theory is proving true once again
Post by: keithers on August 02, 2014, 09:15:42 AM
This would only apply if you are assuming that all BTC spent at the new company that accepts BTC are spending coins that they have been holding onto. If they need to buy BTC to spend, then the more people soing so would drive the price up


Title: Re: My theory is proving true once again
Post by: keithers on August 02, 2014, 09:16:59 AM
I guess Dell is still mass converting to fiat from their 10% off Bitcoin sale.

Do you have any market data that depicts this?


Title: Re: My theory is proving true once again
Post by: CoinsCoinsEverywhere on August 03, 2014, 07:18:41 AM
This would only apply if you are assuming that all BTC spent at the new company that accepts BTC are spending coins that they have been holding onto. If they need to buy BTC to spend, then the more people soing so would drive the price up
Could you please explain to me why this would be true?  If people are buying bitcoins to spend immediately, then their net effect on the market is pretty much price neutral.  Someone buys bitcoin and the price ticks up, then they spend it and the merchant sells it, and the price ticks down (if the quantity is large enough).


Title: Re: My theory is proving true once again
Post by: gogxmagog on August 03, 2014, 07:53:14 PM
so getting retailers to accept btc is not the complete goal then. We need the infrastructure surrounding retail to accept btc. this will be a greater challenge for sure, but getting the tax man, utilities, the supply chain etc. to accept would be a good way to keep the btc flowing and negate most of the need to cash it out. Maybe over simplified view here, but pretty much right after I heard about btc, and saw the crazy volatility, I decided that the best case scenario would be to get btc, hodl, wait until I could use it as easily and universally as fiat, at which time it would have an exponentially greater purchasing power. The btc to fiat conversion model would become obsolete if adoption was absolute. Could be some time till we see that though.


Title: Re: My theory is proving true once again
Post by: giveBTCpls on August 03, 2014, 09:53:55 PM
Retailers seem like a double edged sword to me. They say "ohh yeah, we support Bitcoin" and so on, but then they act as Bitcoin dumping machines as they convert all of their gains to fiat.


Title: Re: My theory is proving true once again
Post by: maker88 on August 04, 2014, 12:19:16 PM
this will be a greater challenge for sure, but getting the tax man, utilities, the supply chain etc. to accept would be a good way to keep the btc flowing and negate most of the need to cash it out.

in some european country(netherlands? belgium? can't recall) i heard you can pay taxes in bitcoin, but likely the host country immediately converts to their currency. if i could pay my utilities in bitcoin then i wouldn't even have a bank account except to accept fiat payments from employers and convert spare fiat into bitcoins lol.


Title: Re: My theory is proving true once again
Post by: ensurance982 on August 04, 2014, 05:10:59 PM
I had a theory that major retailer acceptance has a short term DOWN effect on the price. Because when a major retailer announce acceptance, old coin holders rush to spend some bitcoin to support that retailer, often creating millions of dollars of transaction volume in a few days, and all these bitcoin will be converted to fiat by the retailer, creating sell pressure, for the short term.

Do you really think the selling pressure really manifests itself that quickly? Why would traders buy on the news then? I think companies that liquidate through BitPay or so aren't creating a lot of pressure since BitPay has buyers that buy the BTC they get on a contract basis, AFAIK...


Title: Re: My theory is proving true once again
Post by: Benjig on August 04, 2014, 08:37:35 PM
Well, looks like the initial short term drop is over? price is creeping up, maybe the retailers are not converting much to fiat now since the initial rush to spend is gone.

i think the actual downtrend to 560 we just had , wasnt for merchants converting bitcoins to fiat, but for the ethereum ipo, those are who are selling good part of the btcs they are receiving.


Title: Re: My theory is proving true once again
Post by: kokojie on August 18, 2014, 01:55:28 PM
I think the other factor to keep in mind is that Bitcoin is still wildly inflationary, much more so than USD.

Each day 3200+ coins are minted, and at $500 price tag, requires $1.6M new money to enter the Bitcoin economy, every single day, just to maintain the $500 price tag.

When less than $1.6M enters, price -> fall. Until a new equilibrium is reached.

On the other hand, if more than $1.6M enters each day, then price will rise.


Title: Re: My theory is proving true once again
Post by: knocte on August 18, 2014, 02:08:47 PM
I think the other factor to keep in mind is that Bitcoin is still wildly inflationary, much more so than USD.

Each day 3200+ coins are minted, and at $500 price tag, requires $1.6M new money to enter the Bitcoin economy, every single day, just to maintain the $500 price tag.

When less than $1.6M enters, price -> fall. Until a new equilibrium is reached.

On the other hand, if more than $1.6M enters each day, then price will rise.

That's a good point.

But there's also 2 things on top of that:
1) If less than 1.6M of bitcoin is bought in a day, it doesn't automatically mean that prices go down. Because all bitcoin miners don't sell their new minted coins right away. Many of them just hold them.
2) When next halving occurs, it will be 0.8M, much less. So this means that the more halving events we have, the quicker the price will start going up in the future.


Title: Re: My theory is proving true once again
Post by: spazzdla on August 18, 2014, 02:09:31 PM
This is why I refuse to buy unless they hold at min 10% of the purchase and even then I tend to want 50% or it's a no buy.


Title: Re: My theory is proving true once again
Post by: kokojie on August 18, 2014, 02:35:26 PM
I think the other factor to keep in mind is that Bitcoin is still wildly inflationary, much more so than USD.

Each day 3200+ coins are minted, and at $500 price tag, requires $1.6M new money to enter the Bitcoin economy, every single day, just to maintain the $500 price tag.

When less than $1.6M enters, price -> fall. Until a new equilibrium is reached.

On the other hand, if more than $1.6M enters each day, then price will rise.

That's a good point.

But there's also 2 things on top of that:
1) If less than 1.6M of bitcoin is bought in a day, it doesn't automatically mean that prices go down. Because all bitcoin miners don't sell their new minted coins right away. Many of them just hold them.
2) When next halving occurs, it will be 0.8M, much less. So this means that the more halving events we have, the quicker the price will start going up in the future.

I have trouble believing vast majority of miners are not selling for fiat immediately, because if a miner is not converting to fiat, then he's just paying facility/electricity/equipment cost out of pocket, then he's essentially buying BTC with fiat. He could have just bought BTC on an exchange if he wanted to buy BTC with fiat.

I agree on the halving speculation. The last halving happened on 2012.11.28, price was at $10, and then price went up very significantly. Price doubled by January, 3x in February, 5x in March, and 20x in April. The price went to over 100x by December.


Title: Re: My theory is proving true once again
Post by: knocte on August 18, 2014, 04:45:47 PM
I have trouble believing vast majority of miners are not selling for fiat immediately, because if a miner is not converting to fiat, then he's just paying facility/electricity/equipment cost out of pocket, then he's essentially buying BTC with fiat. He could have just bought BTC on an exchange if he wanted to buy BTC with fiat.

I think they are selling to cover their costs, sure, but I don't believe they are selling every bitcoin they make.


Title: Re: My theory is proving true once again
Post by: dropt on August 18, 2014, 04:51:03 PM
I have trouble believing vast majority of miners are not selling for fiat immediately, because if a miner is not converting to fiat, then he's just paying facility/electricity/equipment cost out of pocket, then he's essentially buying BTC with fiat. He could have just bought BTC on an exchange if he wanted to buy BTC with fiat.

Vast majority are (IMO) selling, because the vast majority are the corporate mines that aren't interested in BTC as a technology (holding).  They're interested in making millions of fiat dollars.  As for the indies, I keep most every coin I mine and pay my expenses out of pocket.  Why you may ask? Probably because every coin I mine has a cost basis of <$200.  Can't get those on the exchange.