Bitcoin Forum

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2cpew8/game_changer_bitcoin_research_at_the_federal/

He seems a bit more serious than other "whistleblowers" I've seen, promising proof to come and an AMA. Basically, he claims to be a researcher, and that his team was put to work on an economic simulation involving Bitcoin. They concluded that Bitcoin would overtake the US dollar as early as 2021, and that it completely disrupts everything they understand about economics and monetary policy. He claims their superiors didn't like these conclusions, and hid the research while relocating the researchers to lesser roles.

I hope he will bring sufficient proofs because this is kind of hard to believe at first.

lets blast the researchers with bitcoins   muhahaha =)

Just saw this. Interesting story, if unverified. Sounds to me like exactly the kind of thing that the U.S. government sometimes does when it doesn't like the message. Do some lookups on what they did to poor Oppenheimer when he became politically "inconvenient" and wouldn't shut up about what the nuclear bomb was doing to military strategies.

I do see interesting research papers by the different Fed. Reserve Banks (there are several in different regions of the country) and sometimes they are a little more diverse than I think they would be, being the Fed. Reserve.  Hopefully he has some cool info and documents to back up what he's saying.  But still, all this suspense he's creating seems weird, why not just be out with the information and proof?

I am intrigued. And I patiently wait for validation.

The thing is crypto currencies don't even work like real world currencies, they operate more like commodities due to speculation.

  Dot com bubble in the late 1990s was $7 trillion while the M1 monetary supply (IIRC) is close to $3 trillion now.  Does that mean Dot com overtook the $Fiat?   :D

I think it's possible for crypto currencies to be worth trillions in the upcoming years.

I would personally think he is full of it. It is very unlikely IMO that someone who "blow the whistle" on reddit. It is just not the kind of forum that you can easily show proof. It would be much more effective if he were to go to congress or go to the MSM who could verify his story but keep his identity private.

Yeah why not use wikileaks?

7 years actually sounds longer than I imagined. Then again, many americants still believe in angels, I guess it should come as no surprise they still (and will still) believe in the dollar.

or it could be that his theory was sooooo exaggerated that his bosses thought
"hmm maybe this guy is not as smart as we thought, and is exaggerating statistics that are plain to be seen... lets stick him in the back office as we cant just sack him."

though i want bitcoin to succeed, i always try to keep a level head and try to take every detail into consideration from both sides of the fences

Possibly, but you could argue that Reddit is the right place to talk to a bitcoin audience (you could also argue that Reddit is the best place to spread a made up story, so hard to know).

I really want to believe this, but it is hard not to be skeptical. The broader support you can claim for the story is that: the Fed governor and her predecessor have both made good noises about bitcoin which proves they are looking at it; and it is believable that the Fed would commission a serious study of bitcoin's potential given it is the Fed's job to stay on top of the financial system (whether they do that well or not I will leave to others to decide).

i think it's bullshit. if the government knew about this tidbit of information, they would set up an all out attack on bitcoin to regulate the shit out of it. despite what some evanglists say, regulation can stop bitcoin. you guys think dell, overstock and all those companies would be accepting bitcoin if the government banned it? coinbase would go belly up too.

and let's talk about bitcoin overtaking american dollars by 2021.. that's just total bullshit. there needs to be a shit ton of support for bitcoin, even with the lowest common denominator (like older people who are luddites).

everyone read the OP again.

it is not revealing government secrets. it is simply someone with statistics that theorizes bitcoins dominance will happen in 2021. it is not factual data, as the year is not 2021 for it to be verified.

its just a theory based on statistical data that some researchers have put together.

again it is not "whistleblowing" any corporate data that could be considered as corporate espionage. so take it with a pinch of salt.

in short more speculation.

here is why im not bothered by the speculation.
1. for bitcoin to dominate FIAT the whole confirm time and block data limit needs to be sorted to allow for ALOT more transactions to occur per second, just to compete against FIAT.
2. the FedRes does not know when or how the confirm time, block data limit will be sorted, without this schule knowledge no statistics can be accurate
3. even the bitcoin dev's dont know when and most definetly have not released any schedule of when or how it will increase tx/s

so any theory about bitcoin domination cannot even be calculated without knowing the confirm time, block data limit update schedule.

You don't need rocket science to learn that bitcoin will be a game changer IF it ever becomes moderately successful. The only real question is whether it will become successful.

Why would he hide the research if he was paid to conduct it?

Hahaha, it's an interesting story if it's unverified? Meaning, if the OP made this shit up you'd find it interesting but you wouldn't find it interesting if it's a TRUE story?

Wait, why is he a whistleblower again, what did the fed do wrong by having a study done.

I would be more shocked if they didn't.

The OP claimed to be "blowing the whistle" on the government's attempts to cover up his research findings; according to him, they did not want information about it to reach the public.

Until this is verified I'm going to ignore it. This is quite a claim to post with no evidence whatsoever.

if thats will never come what will we do?
wait until satoshi life again ?

Well, guess what? You can't verify it if it's a estimate. So, bye-bye common sense there!

Sounds like it could be the same guy who had a friend at the Marshall's office and leaked the bids:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=671011.0

some people just to fucking around with other people online.. for now, that's my opinion on this. the story just doesn't check out.

Not a native speaker but from what I gather here and there I understand "foo if bar" is an idiom for "foo and bar" or maybe "foo but bar". Not an actual, literal "if".

I'd say it's more an idiom for "foo, despite bar".

Although I enjoyed the read, I highly doubt that this is remotely true. Hope to see some proof.

If I get this right, than some economist was hired by US-government to make a study about how Bitcoins influences the economy. After he presented his result, they told him, that they are not interessted in any more studies about Bitcoins from him.
Sounds believeable. So, what exactly is the big fuse?
Most likeley they just thought that his results are bullshit and hired someone else to make a better study.

Exactly. more than likely a ploy to help the op sell higher than the price he bought in at.

This is not looking real for me, he is too open with risk of loosing job completly

This is why reddit is useless. That user has no proof to support any of his claims. Downvote and upvote bots manipulate what makes it to the top.

https://www.techdirt.com/articles/20140224/17054826340/new-snowden-doc-reveals-how-gchqnsa-use-internet-to-manipulate-deceive-destroy-reputations.shtml (https://www.techdirt.com/articles/20140224/17054826340/new-snowden-doc-reveals-how-gchqnsa-use-internet-to-manipulate-deceive-destroy-reputations.shtml)

I don't see why they need all those complicated statistical models, projections and simulations to realize the obvious: Bitcoin is the ultimate FED killer, and it is designed to go viral.

Anyhow, I don't see anything good or bad in this "whistleblower" report. Big bosses of the FED are realizing that Bitcoin is their big black Nemesis and that will kill their business model rather soonish? They had to realize it, sooner or later. They can only try to slow BTC adoption as much as possible, but they cannot stop it - Bitcoin is resilient by design.

Fill your Bitcoin wallets, grab popcorn and enjoy the show.

Not really a whistleblower if it's an AMA, I think he wouldn't use reddit then. According to this prediction there are only 7 years left  :D
I think the story in itself sounds plausible.

Academics need these kind of models to convince their peers, who still think fiat is the future. and nobody will publish their work if there are no models, projections and simulations. The government in general has no idea, a lot of talk but no vision.

Wow, reading that post is like a good movie.  The collapse of the federal reserve predicted by one of their researchers.   :o

It's natural to question the validity, considering, the provided info would easily allow the Feds to identify this person.

If true, this could rival Snowden's revelations and could make this nameless person a mark for Fed mercenaries.  

I highly doubt anything is true that he writes....

The problem with the internet I guess and always will be, its really hard to find out who is actually typing the information here..

Complete bullshit.


'Developing currency' is not simply not economics terminology. Perhaps the writer means 'minor currency' to a 'major currency', however actual researchers who know what they are talking about are pedantic.


You cannot perform normal simulations of interest rates on Bitcoin, as it's properties are widely divergent compared to fiat currencies. For one, the concept of federal funds rate (central bank rate) does not apply to Bitcoin. Complete signs of BS right here.


These two bears zero relevance to any impacts of Bitcoin, and are completely irrelevant to modelling currencies and specially assessing a 'tipping point' of adoption.


Monetary policy is macro. No economist would specify 'macro monetary policy'.


But quite simply, Bitcoin is vastly different and cannot be modeled a fiat currency, which is what the author of the post claims to have done (while sprinkling terminology that actual economists never say, and usually irrelevant to their point).

TL;DR: BS. You're welcome.

now I would have believed him if he said

we discovered bitcoin is an nsa/cia project to fund their drug dealing for black ops and secret government agendas

and if he said here's proof

Satoshi Nakamoto is CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE in Japanese

Then I would be interested

Bitcoin enjoyed the logarithmic spiral of fast growth, and it's hyper deflation in value will be an amazing thing to watch

A true currency needs one central thing, TRUST, now that the world can easily find out how it's a CIA project, the trust value is destroyed so in a short time it will go bust

My .0004 satoshi

Or 2 cents at these inflated values

It is an interesting story but without verification it is to be taken with a grain of salt. 2021 sounds good for mass adoption but I am not sure it will be quite that fast.

Hard to believe in 2021. It maybe possible in 2041 or 2051.