Bitcoin Forum

Im really disapointed...... just wanting to buy a few  Antminer S3  cause I can use them  at work  where I have no electricity fee.........

I was seeing the ROI ,  using this calculator:

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/calculator

Please,  can someone help me???   I dont understand why  ROI is impossible  even  without electricity fee........  or this calculator is not accurate??? 

Thanks!!!


https://i.imgur.com/zoChzfL.png

The hardware price isn't 600$, but 400$ ;)
Edit: A difficulty increase of 20% for the next months isn't going to happen in my opinion.

That calculator has never been accurate for me, at all... it's never returned a correct btc est. value for me.  I just avoid it...

I find this one to be more accurate:
http://www.bitcoinx.com/profit/

I used  $ 600 with  customs fee and deliver........  maybe $ 550  ??

I think 20% is accurate,   I was looking Graph from blockchain  ,   and seems a solid grow...... not?


Thanks a lot

Well, the price depends of course on where you live.

I don't think that a 20% increase is possible, because that'd mean that in 8 weeks the total hashing power needs to be doubled. I doubt that that will happen.

Thanks a lot!  
I really think  as you,   20%  is huge  and 8 weeks  for double hash rate................  but  on the other side,  I see this chart:   (about 30% every 30 days  if you get the last year data)


Difficulty History

Date           Difficulty           Change   Hash Rate
Jul 25 2014   18,736,441,558   8.08%   134,120,673 GH/s
Jul 12 2014   17,336,316,979   3.08%   124,098,191 GH/s
Jun 29 2014   16,818,461,371   24.93%   120,391,236 GH/s
Jun 18 2014   13,462,580,115   14.51%   96,368,902 GH/s
Jun 05 2014   11,756,551,917   12.44%   84,156,677 GH/s
May 24 2014   10,455,720,138   18.10%   74,844,960 GH/s
May 12 2014   8,853,416,309   10.66%   63,375,223 GH/s
Apr 29 2014   8,000,872,136   14.64%   57,272,474 GH/s
Apr 17 2014   6,978,842,650   14.04%   49,956,502 GH/s
Apr 05 2014   6,119,726,089   22.23%   43,806,706 GH/s
Mar 24 2014   5,006,860,589   17.80%   35,840,504 GH/s
Mar 13 2014   4,250,217,920   11.39%   30,424,245 GH/s
Feb 28 2014   3,815,723,799   21.92%   27,314,015 GH/s
Feb 17 2014   3,129,573,175   19.39%   22,402,357 GH/s
Feb 05 2014   2,621,404,453   19.49%   18,764,744 GH/s
Jan 24 2014   2,193,847,870   22.59%   15,704,175 GH/s
Jan 13 2014   1,789,546,951   26.16%   12,810,076 GH/s
Jan 02 2014   1,418,481,395   20.12%   10,153,885 GH/s
Dec 21 2013   1,180,923,195   30.01%   8,453,378 GH/s
Dec 10 2013   908,350,862   28.41%   6,502,229 GH/s
Nov 29 2013   707,408,283   16.07%   5,063,826 GH/s
Nov 17 2013   609,482,680   19.29%   4,362,847 GH/s
Nov 05 2013   510,929,738   30.70%   3,657,378 GH/s
Oct 26 2013   390,928,788   46.02%   2,798,377 GH/s
Oct 16 2013   267,731,249   41.45%   1,916,495 GH/s
Oct 06 2013   189,281,249   27.19%   1,354,928 GH/s
Sep 25 2013   148,819,200   32.13%   1,065,289 GH/s
Sep 14 2013   112,628,549   29.56%   806,227 GH/s
Sep 04 2013   86,933,018           32.22%   622,291 GH/s
Aug 24 2013   65,750,060           29.40%   470,657 GH/s
Aug 13 2013   50,810,339           35.88%   363,715 GH/s
Aug 03 2013   37,392,766           19.63%   267,668 GH/s
Jul 22 2013   31,256,961           19.47%   223,746 GH/s
Jul 11 2013   26,162,876           22.63%   187,281 GH/s
Jun 29 2013   21,335,329           10.32%   152,724 GH/s
Jun 16 2013   19,339,258           23.92%   138,436 GH/s
Jun 05 2013   15,605,633     28.41%   111,709 GH/s
May 25 2013   12,153,412    8.64%   86,998 GH/s
May 12 2013   11,187,257    11.03%   80,082 GH/s
Apr 30 2013   10,076,293           12.28%   72,129 GH/s
Apr 17 2013   8,974,296       16.96%   64,241 GH/s
Apr 05 2013   7,673,000       14.59%   54,925 GH/s
Mar 24 2013   6,695,826      38.13%   47,931 GH/s
Mar 14 2013   4,847,647      10.98%   34,701 GH/s
Mar 01 2013   4,367,876       19.63%   31,266 GH/s
Feb 18 2013   3,651,012      11.47%   26,135 GH/s
Feb 05 2013   3,275,465      10.33%   23,447 GH/s
Jan 23 2013   2,968,775      -8.64%   21,251 GH/s
Jan 08 2013   3,249,550       9.06%   23,261 GH/s

Did you notice that the from the last 10 times only 2 times a increase larger than 15% took place?

With the currently available hardware, there is no possible way difficulty adjustments could be 20% for 6 months.  At that rate, even BitFury, MegabigPower, and CoinTerra would not be able to operate their gear at a profit.  Plus, at that rate they'd have to sell more and more BTC to cover operating/electricity costs, causing BTC price to tank, and making even more hardware unprofitable.  The difficulty is self adjusting, and if it got out of control like that, it could go down.

Now, when <20nm ASICS start joining the network at >5GH / Watt, things could accelerate again.

Ok......thanks a lot for the answers!  I see it now!!  :)

We're just having a lull in difficulty increases. There are 100's of PHs that will be deployed in the coming months.

what hardware are you talking about ??     Im not daily following the hardware forum....... 

Thanks! :)

you do not know how to analyze that info  .  break in down into segments  use:

 june 5 2013  to dec 21 2013   avg diff was 25%

next use dec 21 2013 to july 12 2014 avg diff was 18%

that downward trend is real    so go from july 12 2014 to jan 2 2015   you will down trend from     18%       

the ways I could be wrong. 

 a new magic super asic   that uses .05 watts a gh or btc price jumps to 2000 usd a coin.

 so buying a s-3 if you are eur based use 600 usd and 10 or 12 % not 20 %

Yes,  im from EU ,  so my budget  i think is about $ 600 each S3.

Now I see the slow progression as difficulty raise,  and you are right,  it´s really more accurate between 10-12%

Thanks a lot!

yeah we had super jumps in 2013 for many reasons.  coins run up in sept -nov from 100 usd to 1100 usd.   asics sold replacing gpus.   in 2013   the new asics are a little better then the old asics and coins dropped in price so jumps have been less.   newer asics are .6 to .75 watts not the same improvement

Ugh! Two data points don't signify a trend.

It was just over a month ago that we had a 25% difficulty increase. There are going to be many shocked and disappointed miners when it happens again... soon.

ASICMiner, Bitfury, BitMain, KNC, Spoondoolies and others are still producing and deploying massive amounts of PHs. The vast majority are going straight to self-owned private mining operations.

Sure it could. It's quite possible that enough people have Bitcoin mining gear on order, or ASICs in fab, for that to happen. Until we hear that ASIC vendors are shutting down production, the difficulty is going to continue to increase rapidly.

While the Bitcoin world moves quickly, the conventional world in which the miners are hosted moves slowly.  If a company spent millions of dollars building a warehouse and got power contracts and is just now getting online with hardware it would just hit the network despite being ordered/payed for months in advance.  Remember less than 3 months ago BTC was almost $700 and 4 months ago it almost doubled in 1 month - people have to guess future trends.

You need analog miners but nobody care about that anymore, but they will roi and never outdate.

analog miners?   first time I hear about them.......      Why people dont care anymore?   Low hashrate ? 

Thanks!

BrianM is either using a translator or doesn't have a good mastery of English.  To my knowledge there is no such thing as an analog miner - not even sure what he could have even meant.

The next Batch of S3 is not due for another 2 weeks and difficulty is about to jump to 20 billion, so by then it may be 21 or 22 billion.

English isn´t my main language too but,  it´s first time for me  seeing "analog asic"....   

Im wondering what he was trying to say..............    Maybe DIY asic ?  I have seen a few proyects about DIY minners.......


Thanks all people is helping in this thread!!! :)

What do you use as the profitability decline per year?

Please accept the truth that mining isn't profitable for small time investor. If you order a million S3 they would give u 70% discount.

- difficulty near 15%  in the best of the scenario.......
- No electricity fee
- ROI in 5-6 months ,  and later,  about 400 € profit  if  difficulty is 15% to end of days

I dont see the business....... Only can Truly ROI  if bitcoin  rockets to 1000 USD...

:(

Does that mean S3-B6 with a ship date of 12-Aug is sold out? Or is there a factor applied to the published ship date?

https://bitmaintech.com/product.htm

I built a spreadsheet for the no electricity model. Assumes 10% increase in difficulty every 11 days. If I order the miner and put them in production on Aug 18 (the next bump date in my spreadsheet) then the payback by Dec 6. This assumes the miner is .66 BTC to include shipping and half of the PS is $65. By Dec 6, the miner is making a whopping 2.32 a day.

If I change the assumptions to 8% difficulty increase and 12 days per bump then it pays back by mid November in 100 days. It stays over $2/day until February. My landlord is not able to track electricity usage at the apartment level.  ;D

With analog you get infinite step instead of only 1's and zeroes. So you can have hash a lot when mining with variable steplenght also noise is not a problem it will be filtered out with bandpass and there will be possible of makeing more hash, if the filters are outdated, so no more useless gear, just update the filters and you can continnie mining :)